The salesman initially told me 16 weeks on 9/22. Then after a couple weeks he called and knocked it down to "scheduled for late in December", which would be around 12 weeks. Then a week later he again called and said Nov 20th, which would only be 8 weeks, and it showed up on 11/14 which is 7 weeks and 4 days.
Maybe I got lucky, but if you just ordered one I'd take what the guy initially tells you with a grain of salt. He said Subaru is telling them to tell the customers it's going to take longer than it really will, so they don't over promise, can't deliver, and end up with an overanxious and angry customer (which he said they've had happen a few times recently). It's better to say it will take forever and surprise much sooner, or just be on time.
I always pad my work estimates the same way for the same reason.