The CVT has one thing going for it:
-A taller overall gear ratio.
Everything else suggests the 5MT would do better with a skilled driver:
-5MT is lighter
-5MT doesn't dissipate significant amounts of energy as heat (AT TEMP light)
-5MT doesn't need to move through several gallons of cold, viscous fluid on startup
-5MT doesn't steal heat from the engine
-5MT's 0-60 time is better despite fixed gear ratios and interrupted acceleration, suggesting lower drivetrain loss
I don't know whether the CVT's EPA rating should be lower, but that it's higher than the 5MT's is suspicious.