Yep. High demand and dealer markup would work against me: Initially some dealers I contacted last fall were asking for $5k over MSRP!
Now it looks genuinely possible to snag one, pre-tax credit for invoice - $10k, which is a pretty damn good price as my math attempts to demonstrate. Furthermore, it's a good price objectively, too, as Toyota has gone on record that they're paying Tesla $38k/unit for the powertrain. (Can't find the source now, hmm.) Buying one at the above price means buying a Tesla powertrain and getting the RAV4 thrown in for free.
Also relevant to the slow sales is this third hand anecdote:
"I bumped into Elon at a dinner party. I asked about the Rav4 since it was not yet being delivered. He said that Toyota was not interested in selling the car. How do you know, I asked. He said the price ($50k) was too high for the car and that he offered to drop the price of the drive train to their manufacturing costs if Toyota would drop the price of the car the same amount. They said no."
"You only say no if you don't want to sell the cars."