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Old 12-22-2008, 01:57 PM   #1
AVANTI R5
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Default Egan-Jones Ratings: Ford is Toast, Too

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Egan-Jones Ratings is a relatively obscure little outfit out of Haverford, PA. It’s one of those companies whose website doesn’t have a flashy design or, for that matter, a phone number (just a contact form). Forbes rates them number 1 on their list of eight financial mavens (not ten!) “who saw the crisis coming.”

“A vocal critic of rivals Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor’s, Egan has a track record of warning investors about poor credit quality long before the Big Three ratings agencies. Most recently he said to shun subprime-mortgage-backed bonds even while the other agencies said these were investment-grade credits.”

And now Sean has a few words on Ford, via a ginormous Fordetorial in Bloomberg. ““It’s unrealistic of Alan [Mulally] to expect Ford to survive, let alone profit, when they’re experiencing a 30-plus percent decline in sales. Without a bankruptcy filing and a complete reorganization, Ford is not going to be profitable, period.” Egan ain’t kidding. His company rates Ford’s debt a D, its lowest level. And if that’s not enough blowback for Mulally-loving Fordophiles, here’s some more…

“The company may need a bailout to get to 2010, because for all Mulally has accomplished, it’s not enough, says Kevin Tynan, an auto analyst at New York-based Argus Research Corp. Mulally should have produced smaller cars faster and pushed for union concessions to take effect before 2010.
‘He played the cards he was dealt,’

Tynan says. ‘What you needed was someone who would throw back the cards and say, ‘This won’t work.’ You needed General Patton, somebody who is not going to accept this is how things are done. It was essentially a missed opportunity, maybe the last chance.’”
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Old 12-22-2008, 02:33 PM   #2
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ehhh, idk. for the most part he's right, but for those of us who are in the know with automobiles, we know ford has some very good things coming up the pipeline, not to mention that ford thrives in europe.
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Old 12-22-2008, 03:25 PM   #3
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ehhh, idk. for the most part he's right, but for those of us who are in the know with automobiles, we know ford has some very good things coming up the pipeline, not to mention that ford thrives in europe.
GM's had a lot of great things coming out of the pipe for the past 4 years or so, but they are in way more trouble than Ford.
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Old 12-22-2008, 03:38 PM   #4
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GM's had a lot of great things coming out of the pipe for the past 4 years or so, but they are in way more trouble than Ford.
Not really. GMs products have certainly gotten better but I've driven the new Aura for example and it's still no Honda Accord. They also have nothing innovative, they are still just getting on par with the competition. Ford has things like the Fusion Hybrid which actually beats the Camry Hybrid. GM has... vaporware.
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Old 12-22-2008, 05:44 PM   #5
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... not to mention that ford thrives in europe.
Well, not really. Starting in 2005 they finally started turning a steady profit, instead of swapping profit/loss each year. It looks like they will manage to turn a strong profit this year. That will help the US side of things, like how the SUV craze here gave Ford of Europe a supply of money in the 90's.
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Old 12-22-2008, 06:42 PM   #6
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Not really. GMs products have certainly gotten better but I've driven the new Aura for example and it's still no Honda Accord. They also have nothing innovative, they are still just getting on par with the competition. Ford has things like the Fusion Hybrid which actually beats the Camry Hybrid. GM has... vaporware.
G8, C6, CTS, Malibu, VUE, Astra, and to a much lesser extent, Sky/Solstice all say hi. Camaro, Cruze, and Volt are holding on Line 2. What does Ford have now?

FWIW, the Accord is no Accord. It's a step down from the last-gen IMO; despite the added size, interior just isn't nearly as good.
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Old 12-22-2008, 07:16 PM   #7
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G8, C6, CTS, Malibu, VUE, Astra, and to a much lesser extent, Sky/Solstice all say hi. Camaro, Cruze, and Volt are holding on Line 2. What does Ford have now?
G8 is a nice car but you can't get Navigation or a lot of the other little tech goodies I would expect from a car in that class. The Malibu is the same as an Aura and not that great (but certainly a decent car). My friend has a C6 and it's fun but I really don't see the appeal. The CTS is nice but heavy, nothing innovative in my opinion. VUE is alright but just another crossover. Astra had potential but it's expensive and lightly equipped. Camaro, Cruze, and Volt could be sweet if GM ever sells them here.

Ford has the Fusion Hybrid, Escape Hybrid, Flex, F-Series, and the new Mustang. They also have Sync which had made the ****ty Focus popular still. Plus there is the Fiesta and Kuga in the short pipeline.

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FWIW, the Accord is no Accord. It's a step down from the last-gen IMO; despite the added size, interior just isn't nearly as good.
I haven't driven a new one so no comment.
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Old 12-22-2008, 09:00 PM   #8
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I have absolutely no respect for Financial analysts. I put them on par with other charlatans as Nostradamus. Saying that someone "knew about the financial collapse" is like *GOSH* predicting that a soap bubble will burst. Duh. Really?!? Imagine that!1!!

In the automotive world, product is king. Period.
Ford is surprisingly bringing out some (hopefully) very good products over the next couple of years. I personally am looking for a good opportunity to dump some more money into Ford stock.
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Old 12-22-2008, 09:39 PM   #9
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I have absolutely no respect for Financial analysts. I put them on par with other charlatans as Nostradamus. Saying that someone "knew about the financial collapse" is like *GOSH* predicting that a soap bubble will burst. Duh. Really?!? Imagine that!1!!

In the automotive world, product is king. Period.
Ford is surprisingly bringing out some (hopefully) very good products over the next couple of years. I personally am looking for a good opportunity to dump some more money into Ford stock.

so how much money did you make shorting the market in October 2007?

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Old 12-22-2008, 10:34 PM   #10
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so how much money did you make shorting the market in October 2007?

Oh, let me guess, you're a scam artists, opps I mean, a financial analyst. So did you continue to pimp out Company A as "great buys" to your clients as the rug was being pulled out from under the market?
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Old 12-22-2008, 11:37 PM   #11
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Oh, let me guess, you're a scam artists, opps I mean, a financial analyst. So did you continue to pimp out Company A as "great buys" to your clients as the rug was being pulled out from under the market?
correct i was a financial analyst. incorrect, i was extremely bearish and recommended everyone move to treasuries. for my personal credits i recommended selling out our our subordinated securities into our senior securities.

now answer my question.
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Old 12-23-2008, 03:44 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Skunkers View Post
GM's had a lot of great things coming out of the pipe for the past 4 years or so, but they are in way more trouble than Ford.
gm's had their head up their asspipe, so nothing of theirs can come to fruition.
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Old 12-23-2008, 03:47 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Hazdaz View Post

In the automotive world, product is king. Period.
Ford is surprisingly bringing out some (hopefully) very good products over the next couple of years. I personally am looking for a good opportunity to dump some more money into Ford stock.
hell, ive already made good money off of them in the past month.
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Old 12-23-2008, 09:21 AM   #14
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In the automotive world, product is king. Period.
Ford is surprisingly bringing out some (hopefully) very good products over the next couple of years.
That would all be fine if car sales hadn't just nosedived. Every car company is going to be hit hard, and those who were barely staying afloat before the downturn are not going to be saved by a few new good products.
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Old 12-23-2008, 11:44 AM   #15
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correct i was a financial analyst. incorrect, i was extremely bearish and recommended everyone move to treasuries. for my personal credits i recommended selling out our our subordinated securities into our senior securities.

now answer my question.
What I make or didn't make only concerns my bottom-line, not thousands of people that depend on my advise as being unbiased like what should have been happening with Financial Analysts.


Mike Wevrick - no doubt, and that is all the more reason that giving these guys a lifeline (if they need it) to survive this massive downturn is soo important. Automobile manufacturing in general will continue to be a very profitable business... we just have to keep Detroit around long enough till they can start making money again.
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Old 12-23-2008, 02:22 PM   #16
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What I make or didn't make only concerns my bottom-line, not thousands of people that depend on my advise as being unbiased like what should have been happening with Financial Analysts.
hindsight it is 20:20. armchair quarterbacking FTW...


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Old 12-23-2008, 02:27 PM   #17
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basically, i think we can all agree that financial analysts are just yet another title people apply to themselves to make them sound important. now if someone considers their job, then thats just a laughing matter, and i lawl at it.
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Old 12-23-2008, 02:31 PM   #18
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OK guys,let's get back on topic....
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Old 12-23-2008, 02:40 PM   #19
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hindsight it is 20:20. armchair quarterbacking FTW...


Who the hell needs "hindsight" to see that biased advise from people in the pocket of the very companies that they are reporting on is a bad thing?

It used to simply be called 'common sense'.



---------

Either way, back on topic, Ford is indeed very weak, and even worse, the car market is very weak too.

But they themselves are saying that they don't "need" any bailout loans (right now), so Ford might come out of this with some of the newest cars (especially with the Fiesta, and if/when the Kuga gets there) in the business to sell to hungry consumers when they start buying again.

But, I honestly do not see the car market improving for at least another year or 2, so all these companies have to essentially survive till then.
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Old 12-23-2008, 03:34 PM   #20
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The new Hybrid Fusion gets an EPA 41 mpg on highway, and can do 700 miles on one tank. Ford has the class leading Fiesta coming early 2010, the Kuga, Focus, and Modeo are ready and waiting pending on the success of the Fiesta. I think Ford has a strong future.
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Old 12-23-2008, 03:37 PM   #21
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- no doubt, and that is all the more reason that giving these guys a lifeline (if they need it) to survive this massive downturn is soo important. Automobile manufacturing in general will continue to be a very profitable business...
so far so good

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we just have to keep Detroit around long enough till they can start making money again.
But they were not making much if any money before the downturn. Why should we prop up companies that may never be competitive/profitable?
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Old 12-23-2008, 05:09 PM   #22
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But they were not making much if any money before the downturn.
That's not accurate, and you know it. Do a search on GMs or Ford's profits.... as recently as 3 years ago, Ford made a profit of $2 Billion. As recently as 4 years ago, GM was pulling in quarterly profits of nearly a Billion dollars.

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Why should we prop up companies that may never be competitive/profitable?
Because the cost in jobs far out weighs the cost to give them LOANS... again folks, it's not "free money", it's simply loans. And those are loans that GM probably would have been able to get themselves, if not for the financial collapse.
Even in this craptacular economy, GM is still going to sell about 7 Million cars this year and next... those are huge numbers and huge possibilities of success.

Also when a car company actually gets it's act together, it too might have a market cap of nearly $100Billion and pull in profits of $25 Billion like Toyota did in 2007. The fact that even they are seeing a loss this year (their first in 70 years) proves what kind of awful economic environment we are in right now.
Are you implying that if they needed it (just hypothetically), Toyota shouldn't be given loans to assure they are around for another couple of years till the economy improves? They obviously don't need help, but Toyota's past success goes to show how profitable the auto business can be.
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