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Old 09-01-2011, 10:56 AM   #126
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Draft theory advice sought

1st pick overall, starting lineup at the important positions is QB/RB/RB/WR-TE/WR-TE/WR-TE (no mandatory TE, just my choice at the WR-TE position)

All TDs are 6 points except for:
RBs who throw or catch a TD = 12 points
QBs who run or catch a TD = 12 points
WR/TEs who run or throw a TD = 12 points

At 1/1, do I go with the bellcow Adrian Peterson and look for a stronger QB in a pass-happy offense to go along with the best RB or WR available at the 2/12 and 3/1 spots?
or
Do I gamble with Vick at 1/1 and dig amongst the RB and WR available piles to get my #1 for the RB and WR positions at the 2/12 and 3/1 spots?

I have been going over this in my mind for the past week. I am not sold on Vick at 1 just yet. Even with his value pretty good to run one in every game (double points makes that a 12 point TD), Vick throwing for 1 and running for one equates to a pocket-passer QB throwing for 3 in a game.
I do like AP at 1, but my fellow league owners 'draft tendencies' and draft speculation lead me to believe that Brees/Brady/Rivers will not be there for me at 2/12.
AP and it's not even close IMO. I'd have to see how it affects the Vick situation but I feel like he's too big of a gamble to take 1st overall. Him playing all 16 games would be a miracle.
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Old 09-01-2011, 10:58 AM   #127
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I have always been the 'best player available' drafter. The other owners have always been steadfast to the rankings during my time in the league (14th year), only recently slowly switching their own draft process to going for the best available player. With the rest of the competition now changing philosophy, I want to stay ahead of the lot. So I have been doing mock drafts across the net for the past month trying to shake out how things might go. It sucks that I am mock drafting against randoms who dont have the same scoring system that my league does.

With heavy weight towards QBs who throw 3+ TDs a game, I am thinking I may get lucky to get someone at 2/12 or 3/1 (perhaps later at 4/12 or 5/1) who can equal what Vick can do from a points perspective. The only tradition I am holding onto a little too steadfastly is the need for a RB that doesnt split much time. Thats why I am leaning towards AP at 1/1.

The scoring in this league is pretty ****ed up, and I want to take advantage of any opportunity I can to get players who are potenitally well-suited to the scoring. Which is why Vick is tempting.

My draft position doesnt make things any easier. Its gonna suck having to wait 22 picks before I get to go
Hmm.. Take AP and pass on the QB @1/1. Especially Vick. Phily's line looks terrible and he is no longer playing for a job.

If I was picking 2/12 and dead-set on a QB... options will be out there. Brees & Rivers are just under that range, you could get lucky. Rothesburger has been going about 28ish from what I've seen, which means he'll be there, but you risk over-paying. I don't know how comfortable you are with Peyton and his injury but he falls about spot-on where you'll be picking. You could either snag him then another in rd 6-8 just in case you need him covered for the first few weeks, or take a different position.
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Old 09-01-2011, 10:59 AM   #128
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Yes sir. Pretty neat though, every Sunday they do a football party and have a few TVs going, so the buy-in includes beer/food too. Works out to be like $25/wk over the course of the season, so its not as bad as it sounds.
That's actually pretty cool. I can barely find one person to come over and watch football on sundays, much less a whole group of people. Damn my friends suck.

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Originally Posted by ZMANNH25rs View Post
People taking Vick at 1...no matter what the scoring, must have some top notch crack to be smoking...
Taken from ESPN:

If you took Michael Vick's total stats from last year, divided them by 12 and then multiplied by 16 (and rounded up on the fractions) you come up with 449 fantasy points.

That's why you draft him #1. It's a huge gamble but if if pays off he can damn near win you your league by himself.
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:15 AM   #129
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I'm with ZMANN.

Vick is a guy that with a career 50-55% completion percentage that put up a 63% last year. His average completion was ~6.5 yards, then he goes for 8.1. Rushed for 9 TDs on 100 rushes (11 rush/TD) when he's averaged 24 rush/TD for his career.

Don't you think there's going to be SOME regression? If he plays 16 games and gets the stats he did last year total (not extrapolated), I'd be more than happy.

There's a saying in fantasy sports "You can't win a league in the first round, but you sure can lose it."
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:16 AM   #130
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That's actually pretty cool. I can barely find one person to come over and watch football on sundays, much less a whole group of people. Damn my friends suck.



Taken from ESPN:

If you took Michael Vick's total stats from last year, divided them by 12 and then multiplied by 16 (and rounded up on the fractions) you come up with 449 fantasy points.

That's why you draft him #1. It's a huge gamble but if if pays off he can damn near win you your league by himself.
That's a lot of if's. I've always been a more conservative Fantasy sports person. Especially with baseball...you can say this same argument for lots of baseball players, but there are certain guys who you know aren't going to play more then 120 games and to me that's not worth it. With Vick I think you see a bit of a drop-off this year and there are too many questions around him to take at number 1 IMO.

I feel the same with CJ, too much risk. No preseason, small back, horrible team, lots of touches the last couple of years...too much risk.

Other people I'm not high on : MJD, Fitzgerald, Hillis, Gore, Nicks, Forte, Jackson,

Guys I will probably reach for : Ryan, Felix Jones, Austin, Gronkowski,
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:23 AM   #131
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I agree with Z except on Fitzgerald & Hillis.

Fitz is the best WR in the league. He did great last year with 4 QBs throwing to him. Breaston is gone which means his targets go up, and he's one of 2 WRs in the league that's so good that double coverage doesn't even matter. I don't know why everyone is so down on Hillis this year. Preseason has shown he's not a fluke. CLE actually has a passing game now so that only makes his value increase.

PS: You already reached, and reached big on Gronkowski

I was shocked you took him where you did and a little disappointed that I didn't get him.
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:24 AM   #132
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Oh, I completely agree on Vick, but I also see why people are taking him #1. If I was in a random free league I'd probably do it for S's and G's just to see what happened.

And I love looking at what people are up and down on. My list would be:

Up - Turner, Fitz, Rice, Freeman, Gore (as long as healthy), F. Jones
Down - CJ, MJD, Foster (even before his injury), Nicks, Hillis

A lot of these up's and down's are related to draft position. For example, I'm really high on Nicks in the third round, not in the first. I'm also down on CJ/AF because of them going 2-4. After that I raise my interest in them a little more (as evident by me taking CJ @ 6 in the OT league 1)
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:35 AM   #133
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I really want to figure out Ladanian Tomlinson and the role he will play this year.

He's getting up there but I'm trying to figure out if he has any value left as a #3 or flex. Rex Ryan says he's still worthy of starting- which leads me to believe the Jets may treat him like last year: Say Greene is the starter but then give LT the bulk of the carries for the first half of the season. I can already tell he's going to be a PITA on my team.
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:36 AM   #134
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I agree with Z except on Fitzgerald & Hillis.

Fitz is the best WR in the league. He did great last year with 4 QBs throwing to him. Breaston is gone which means his targets go up, and he's one of 2 WRs in the league that's so good that double coverage doesn't even matter. I don't know why everyone is so down on Hillis this year. Preseason has shown he's not a fluke. CLE actually has a passing game now so that only makes his value increase.

PS: You already reached, and reached big on Gronkowski

I was shocked you took him where you did and a little disappointed that I didn't get him.

@ the Gronk comments...will he put up 10 TD again this year ? It would be awesome if he did and all the talk coming out of the Patriots camp this year is the ridiculous amount of extra time Brady has been spending working on the Red Zone with Gronk and Hernandez. Hernandez does brings down Gronk's value, he is quickly becoming a favorite target of Brady, but Brady loves Gronk in the end-zone. I'm not looking for consistent week to week points from him...but the hook-up with Brady and Gronk is big, I'm a firm believer of having at least one hook-up for points and if Gronk has 10 TD's by the end of the season then I'll be happy...

Arizona is so bad this year they will be able to triple team Fitz (and he will probably still come down with ball, shrug off a couple of tacklers and walk into the end-zone...)
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:45 AM   #135
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I don't blame you for Gronkowski, he bailed me out last year in the OT league. I got hit with big injuries early on and started the season something like 2-6. I picked him up along with Llyod and just missed the play-offs.
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:55 AM   #136
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I really want to figure out Ladanian Tomlinson and the role he will play this year.

He's getting up there but I'm trying to figure out if he has any value left as a #3 or flex. Rex Ryan says he's still worthy of starting- which leads me to believe the Jets may treat him like last year: Say Greene is the starter but then give LT the bulk of the carries for the first half of the season. I can already tell he's going to be a PITA on my team.
I'd be interested in this as well. I have an auction keeper league ($300 soft cap) where you can keep 7 players, escalating salaries based on how long they've been on your team (1st year free, 2nd year +$5, 3rd and more +$10 per year). I can keep LT for $11 or DeAngelo Williams for $23.

So with a $300 soft cap (can go over, but it costs you real $... $50 entry fee and $1 for $1 when you're over the cap) which 7 do you keep? 10 team league: 2x QB, 2x RB, 3x WR, 1x TE, 1x WR/RB, 1x WR/TE.



Initial thoughts are:
Obvious/mandatory selections:
Vick $9
Rice $25
Mike Williams $10
Maclin $15

50/50 selections:
Peyton Manning $71
Reggie Wayne $48
Colt McCoy $1
Kevin Kolb $34
DeAngelo Williams $23
Pierre Garcon $10
Ladanian Tomlinson $11

It gets really interesting in this format because of inflation. For those of you not familiar with the term, quick example: 10 teams, $300/team, $3000 of money out there to be spent on $3000 worth of talent. Say Vick would normally go for $70. I keep him at $9. $9 comes out of the money pool, but $70 comes out of the talent pool. Let's say everyone protects $200 worth of talent for $100 in salary cap. There's only $1000 left of startable talent out there, but there's $2000 left of salary cap. So when you have a guy like Jahvid Best who maybe should go for $25, his INFLATED value would actually be $25 * ($2000/$1000) = $50.

In actuality, last year's draft started off with around a 23% inflation factor but by the time people caught on to what was happening (no talent and lots of money) it ended near a 200% inflation factor.

Edit: some of the highway robbery that affects inflation. CJ drafted as a rookie for $5. Kept at $5, then $10, now it will cost him $20. Aaron Rodgers drafted when he was a back up at $2. Now he'll cost $27 to keep. Miles Austin for $6. Jamaal Charles for $9. Joe Flacco for $11. Mike Sims-Walker for $9. Austin Collie for $6. Sidney Rice for $6.

Last edited by jr4284; 09-01-2011 at 12:01 PM.
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:20 PM   #137
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Dammit the trade for Calvin Johnson got rejected.
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:21 PM   #138
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i avoided shonn greene and LT for that exact reason: uncertainty. shonn greene might march them down the field but LT will take his goal line carries. so how do you know who to start?

it'd be so hard for me to keep or draft anyone on the panthers team this year. they're gonna be the worst team in the league...
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:22 PM   #139
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Keeping on with mock drafts a few dozen more times to see how an AP at 1/1 shakes out.
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:23 PM   #140
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Dammit the trade for Calvin Johnson got rejected.


So, if you guys decided to put together a 3 #1 WR team with reckless abandon for budget, which 3 would you pick?

Andre Johnson
Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Calvin Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Vincent Jackson
Hakeem Nicks

I was thinking White, Fitz, and Calvin.

And, is it right to be down on Steve Johsnon from Buffalo this year? Alot of places are reducing his TD's by 3 and yards by roughly 200 this year...any reason?
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:26 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by ScubaruImpreza05 View Post
Andre Johnson
Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Calvin Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Vincent Jackson
Hakeem Nicks
That's what I'd do.


This post makes me sad, I have so many WRs
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:28 PM   #142
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i avoided shonn greene and LT for that exact reason: uncertainty. shonn greene might march them down the field but LT will take his goal line carries. so how do you know who to start?
I've got a flex spot to cover in week 1. It was initially between Julio Jones & Ochocinco, but I'm seriously considering going with LT.

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Originally Posted by jms View Post
Keeping on with mock drafts a few dozen more times to see how an AP at 1/1 shakes out.
Make sure to post up. I'm curious to see how it pans out.
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:33 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by ScubaruImpreza05 View Post

Andre Johnson

Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Calvin Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Vincent Jackson
Hakeem Nicks
I dont' think it's too close either. I love Fitz but Roddy is the most reliable thing in the world and Megatron and Andre are just the best athletes in football.
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:35 PM   #144
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So, if you guys decided to put together a 3 #1 WR team with reckless abandon for budget, which 3 would you pick?

Andre Johnson
Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Calvin Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Vincent Jackson
Hakeem Nicks

I was thinking White, Fitz, and Calvin.
Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald.

A team in our league has Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Mike Wallace.
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:40 PM   #145
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That's what I'd do.
+1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josey Wales View Post
I've got a flex spot to cover in week 1. It was initially between Julio Jones & Ochocinco, but I'm seriously considering going with LT.

Make sure to post up. I'm curious to see how it pans out.
between the 3, i'd play the matchups. i got AP with the #4 pick in my league
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Old 09-01-2011, 12:44 PM   #146
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Hmmm, well I was asking this during a mock draft I am currently in ad here is my layout so far:
1.) Matt Ryan
2.) Roddy White
3.) Calvin Johnson
4.) Larry Fitzgerald
5.) Peyton Hillis
6.) Steven Jackson
BE Kevin Kolb
And I have no money left This is a 10 team auction. Sooooooo much easier than 20 person live drafts.
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Old 09-01-2011, 01:36 PM   #147
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I knew I shouldn't have brought up Ben Tate. Mother****ing Shennanigans got to him before I did. Had I not been out on a jobsite I would have picked him up when I asked about him.


Promise, it had nothing to do with this thread. I just saw all the Arian Foster chatter (not in this thread) and thought he was worth picking up...Then I called my Dad to tell him I got Tate and he said "what about Ward?" I told him to go for it if he was available.

Did some more reading, and apparently Ward may get the start over Tate.

Shoot me a trade offer is anyone wants to do some wheelin' and dealin'.
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Old 09-01-2011, 01:42 PM   #148
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CJ is back..just signed
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Old 09-01-2011, 01:56 PM   #149
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Here's my lineup from last night's draft. I had my buddy who has done well in his FF in one ear and my teammate (GF) in the other. We had 2nd pick in a 12 man league with only one person on auto-pick. We have Cutler as a backup QB and IND as a backup D. As long as Peyton is playing, I think we'll have a good shot, but I am not familiar with some of our picks.



Thoughts? Advice?
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Old 09-01-2011, 01:57 PM   #150
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Now the fun thing is, check out the "depth chart" that lists Derrick Ward as the #2 RB, yet Ben Tate has been blowing up this preseason.

I rolled the dice with Tate.
I took tate with my 15th pick...how is slaton 3rd in the depth chart ahead of tate? that dude really fell off after a spectacular rc season.
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