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Old 05-11-2012, 07:26 AM   #51
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Plus, over 6 years gas is very likely to average > $4. So you are being generous.
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Old 05-11-2012, 08:31 AM   #52
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Great analysis shik!!

I think you may have tipped the scales in your favor a bit by using the 4x4 loaded rav4 but very thorough none the less

Also you taught me something. The electric vehicle incentive starts to taper off from 7500 dollars if you make more than 55k jointly? Really ? Do I understand that correctly? Does it go to zero at a certain income level?

Since you are a physician without telling us how much you make since it is none of our business how much of that incentive can you expect?
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Old 05-11-2012, 08:39 AM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skylab View Post
Spinning it in my favor:


I give a crap about gas mileage, but also enjoy at least a bit of sportiness.
I could have bought a GTI, but went with the Golf TDI. $25k, 40mpg's per tankful, and has enough low end torque to pull through the twisties. Oh, and 600 miles between fill ups.

i'll be an ass and poke fun of VW reliability going to complete **** at 36k miles.


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Old 05-11-2012, 09:10 AM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott_gunn View Post
Plus, over 6 years gas is very likely to average > $4. So you are being generous.
That's what I figured, but I thought it'd be better to stick to conservative figures.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
Great analysis shik!!

I think you may have tipped the scales in your favor a bit by using the 4x4 loaded rav4 but very thorough none the less
I picked the Limited because of the option to get navi and Entune, with which the EV is equipped (among other trickery like LED headlights), and the V6 model because the EV is quick: 7 seconds to 60 mph. I would have picked 2WD but Toyota.com won't let me configure a Limited, V6 RAV4 as such.

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Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
Also you taught me something. The electric vehicle incentive starts to taper off from 7500 dollars if you make more than 55k jointly? Really ? Do I understand that correctly? Does it go to zero at a certain income level?

Since you are a physician without telling us how much you make since it is none of our business how much of that incentive can you expect?
It's actually the opposite: the Federal tax credit is for $7500, regardless of one's income. The Feds won't give you money outright if your pre-credit tax liability is less than $7500, however, so you'll only receive partial credit if your AGI (married, filing jointly) is less than ~$55k. If you make more than that, and your tax liability is therefore greater than $7500--which will most definitely be the case even in fellowship for me, let alone as an attending radiologist--then you get the full benefit of the tax credit.
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Old 05-11-2012, 10:18 AM   #55
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Well what kind of mileage does the 2WD V6 get? You could use that as refinement, as the EV is only 2WD. I know the equipment is not exactly on par but the point remains, you are NOT making a financial statement, you are making a ethical one, and while I would NEVER do it, I fully support your right to do so (and I salute you for it!). I support any passionate vehicle purchase, right uppuntil I start getting my passions dictated to me by some governmental agency.
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Old 05-11-2012, 10:28 AM   #56
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22 mpg combined for the 2WD and 4WD models alike.

http://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?a...32197&id=32201

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Old 05-11-2012, 10:41 AM   #57
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wow! I would have never guessed! Okay, bud, I stand down!
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Old 05-11-2012, 11:06 AM   #58
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Granted some people do buy EVs and use them as their only vehicle, however I think those are in the minority compared to people buying one as a lifestyle car.
A family friend has a think EV. The husband makes low six figures, wife works as an interpreter. They use the Think as the main commuter car. Whoever is driving farther that day takes the Think, the other person takes the standard family car (not a huge SUV, btw). If they're both home and one needs to run an errand, they take the think. Taking kids to games? Think. Church? They take the Think. For them, it's not a lifestyle car, but a way to be smart with money even though they have money to spend.

Granted, Think's don't cost $50k either.
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Old 05-12-2012, 08:26 AM   #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Time to back of napkin it.

Assumptions:

- Average gas price over the next 6 years of $4 in today's dollars, which I personally feel is very conservative.
- Average electricity price of $0.10/kWh, also conservative and higher than the current Seattle City Light rates that range between 4.7 and 9.8 cents/kWh, iirc.
- 12k miles/year for each, even though that might be practically challenging to achieve in the EV due to the range.
- V6 4WD RAV4 Limited with navi/Entune as the relatively feature- and performance-matched gas contender, which gets 22 mpg combined and costs $29.9k before destination as described
- Single trim EV model, which costs $49.8k before destination and uses about 0.440 kWh/mile (based off of published Leaf efficiency * scaling factor of 1.2 for weight)
- An EV buyer with an adjusted gross income sufficient to qualify for the full $7,500 Federal tax credit ($55k for a married couple filing jointly), and who lives in Seattle, where EVs are exempt from the 9.1% (iirc) sales/use tax on new vehicles and EVSE is provided free by The EV Project. California's incentives are even more friendly.
- Charger efficiency of 90%, which is more than fair unless one's talking inductive charging

Gas price formula: 12,000 miles x 6 years * $X/gal / 22 mpg, which works out to $13,090 for X = 4.
Electricity price formula: 12,000 miles x 6 years * $Y/kWh * 0.440 kWh/mile / 90% charging efficiency, which works out to $3,520 for Y = 0.10.

Net "fuel" cost savings over 6 years and 72,000 miles = $13,090 - $3,520 = $9,570
Net initial purchase price difference = $49.8k - $7,500 - ($29.9k * 1.091) = $9,679

So the EV breaks even at just over 6 years, and that's before accounting for lower maintenance and increased resale value, the latter of which for used RAV4 EVs has historically been far greater than used gas RAV4s…

Despite all this, I still maintain that buying a $50k EV for frugality is a silly idea. If one wanted to be frugal, they wouldn't have been looking at 22 mpg, $30k cars of any sort in the first place, but rather combing the lower cost, more frugal branches of the automotive family tree. Again, though, frugality is not what I'm personally after.
Just so you know 90% is very high for charger efficiency. The tesla packs, which this has use tons of energy rushing fluid around and so forth while charging. Your efficiency will be lower than 90% almost for sure. Also as you said the mileage won't work out, and you don't list a discount rate. Otherwise it seems fine, but the resale for EVs won't stay high if people can buy a new one. The reason the old RAV4 EVs had such high resale is no one could buy one otherwise.
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Old 05-12-2012, 11:17 AM   #60
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Just so you know 90% is very high for charger efficiency. The tesla packs, which this has use tons of energy rushing fluid around and so forth while charging. Your efficiency will be lower than 90% almost for sure. Also as you said the mileage won't work out, and you don't list a discount rate. Otherwise it seems fine, but the resale for EVs won't stay high if people can buy a new one. The reason the old RAV4 EVs had such high resale is no one could buy one otherwise.
EVs will remain relatively scarce on the market in the short term. I bet resale values will remain high, albeit not to the absurd levels seen before. As you yourself noted, though, resale values are only relevant if one is looking to sell a vehicle (or be reimbursed by insurance for a loss). This would be one to hang onto, in my view.

Tesla quotes 86% charging efficiency for their Roadster's 53 kWh battery + charger setup, see link below. They also quote 0.215 kWh/mi energy efficiency for said obese-Lotus Roadster, so I feel the combination of my 90% charging efficiency estimate for the smaller RAV4 EV pack and 0.440 kWh/mi energy efficiency for the larger, heavier vehicle probably are close to reality, if not a bit conservative yet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_R...rgy_efficiency

By discount rate do you mean the value of the money not spent up front for the EV in the gas scenario? With savings accounts yielding 1.1%, if that, it's not such a big concern to me.

12k miles over a year works out to 32 miles and change per day. That's certainly possible even with the charge-only-at-home scenario that must will adhere to (my guess).
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Old 05-12-2012, 11:33 AM   #61
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if this EV lasts until 156,250 miles, then you will recoup the $25k extra you spent on the EV Rav4 vs the Reg Rav 4 in fuel savings. And that is using $4 a gal gas and the 4 cyl/fwd models combined fuel economy rating of 25mpg as a bench mark. Not entirely impossible and would take a little over 4 years if you drove it's max range of 100miles EVERY day.

It only sounds like it's too much money but in reality if it's mechanically sound and lasts that long outside it's warranty then go for it.

Never thought any post of mine might defend an EV lol. But thats just the gas numbers. Don't know what kind of MX costs will occur before or after the warranty expires. Then again you'd also have increased electric costs, wonder how much those would end up costing.
i put ~10k/year on a car, and usually keep a car for 5 years or so. i don't think i'd hang on to it for over 15 years to "break even" on the added cost over the regular RAV, so that wouldn't work too well for me.

again, i think the 100 mile range would be a major PITA to be recharging all the time if it were purchased by someone who did put a lot of miles on their vehicle.
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Old 05-12-2012, 11:48 AM   #62
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i put ~10k/year on a car, and usually keep a car for 5 years or so. i don't think i'd hang on to it for over 15 years to "break even" on the added cost over the regular RAV, so that wouldn't work too well for me.
Read my post later in the thread (#50, at the bottom of the first page if you're on non-n00b settings). At $4/gal and $0.10/kWh, compared against a more feature- and performance-matched RAV4 it breaks even at just over 6 years.
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Old 05-13-2012, 12:32 AM   #63
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again, i think the 100 mile range would be a major PITA to be recharging all the time if it were purchased by someone who did put a lot of miles on their vehicle.
It's for commuting.. not road tripping. You aren't going to buy this car if you intend to drive more than 80 miles a day... or 120 miles a day if your workplace provides free charging stations.

If you drive it 80 miles a day, every day to work a 5-day-a-week job, you'll put nearly 19,000 miles on it a year.
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Old 05-13-2012, 10:49 PM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Tesla quotes 86% charging efficiency for their Roadster's 53 kWh battery + charger setup, see link below. They also quote 0.215 kWh/mi energy efficiency for said obese-Lotus Roadster, so I feel the combination of my 90% charging efficiency estimate for the smaller RAV4 EV pack and 0.440 kWh/mi energy efficiency for the larger, heavier vehicle probably are close to reality, if not a bit conservative yet.
There is a lot of overhead that isn't related to size. In other words the smaller pack may have a smaller thermal management solution, but it takes less charge so 85% will still be a good number. Further that is only if you plug it in and charge then immediately drive off. The roadster had a lot of vampire draw after it is charged.

Quote:
By discount rate do you mean the value of the money not spent up front for the EV in the gas scenario? With savings accounts yielding 1.1%, if that, it's not such a big concern to me.

12k miles over a year works out to 32 miles and change per day. That's certainly possible even with the charge-only-at-home scenario that must will adhere to (my guess).
I am just saying that is the proper way to do cash flow problems. You used a discount rate of 0. Since it is a personal discount rate that is fine maybe that is yours. But as you note a bank is 1%, CDs are higher, bonds, etc... there are many options. Businesses use something north of 10% usually. Consumers exhibit wildly varying discount rates because they won't buy efficient refrigerators, but save money in low yield accounts. The reason for this is likely a bunch of things, but one of the main ones is most consumers have no idea about what a discount rate is or how to calculate the time value of money.
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Old 05-14-2012, 09:02 AM   #65
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Eh, I've made so many assumptions in my "analysis" anyway that I hardly figure that the discount rate is significant (or the charging efficiency, for that matter).
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Old 08-03-2012, 10:08 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by shikataganai
2013 Toyota RAV4 EV



- 41.8 kWh of Tesla lithium-ion batteries powering a similarly Tesla-sourced 115 kW electric motor, good for 0-60 in 7 seconds and 100 miles of range
More RAV4 EV details emerge:

The battery has a nominal 41.8 kWh battery capacity as above, with the surprising thing being that the default charging settings are such that only 35 kWh are used in order to maximize the pack's lifetime, possibly to make sure that the 8 yr/100k mile warranty on that battery (as per CARB's regulations) doesn't turn into a money-sink for Toyota.

The 10 kW on-board Tesla charger "uses a standards-based charging interface", presumably SAE J1772, as opposed to Tesla-branded Tesla's, which use their own proprietary connector + adapters when on the road. This is a good thing, even though ChaDeMo Level 3 DC quick charging capability is conspicuously absent.

The projected EPA range certification is 92 miles with 35 kWh usable pack capacity and 113 miles when drawing down the full 41.8 kWh. For comparison, here are the EPA ranges for a few other EVs: 62 miles for the Mitsubishi iMiEV, 73 miles for the Nissan Leaf, and 76 for the Ford Focus Electric. If the 40 kWh Tesla Model S's range scales linearly with pack size as compared to its 85 kWh brother, then such a beast would go 124 miles on the EPA's tests, which are a bit conservative compared to reality provided one's not a beast with the HVAC system. (If one is a true driving ascetic then 170 miles is supposedly theoretically possible from the RAV4 EV.)

The center of gravity is low, illustrated here:

Quote:
One interesting anecdote is that Toyota, in attempting to perform the government's mandatory roll-over crash test, was unable to get this SUV to roll using the government's prescribed method. Its center of gravity is so low, it just wouldn't tip.
The only problem with these positive reviews is that it makes it that much more unlikely that there'll be any left when I'm ready to put down some cash for one next spring/summer…
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Old 08-03-2012, 04:40 PM   #67
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I wonder how much my driving habits would need to change in order to get the advertised 92 miles... that would be very close to my 90 mile commute.
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Old 08-03-2012, 05:19 PM   #68
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I wonder how much my driving habits would need to change in order to get the advertised 92 miles... that would be very close to my 90 mile commute.
Do not even think about that. The batteries like all batteries will degrade. In one year you will not be able to meet your commute needs. That is only a 2.2% reduction in range
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Old 08-03-2012, 08:27 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by sr20dehauler
I wonder how much my driving habits would need to change in order to get the advertised 92 miles... that would be very close to my 90 mile commute.
Your only option would be a big pack Tesla Model S or a mid pack version with a recharge at work. This wouldn't work.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:48 PM   #70
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More photos and info from TTAC:

- New-gen 8" Entune infotainment system with voice control of iDevices and the like.
- Same motor as the Model S! The lower output of 154HP and 273 lb-ft (!) is via differences in battery pack power, DC-DC converter power, and controller programming.
- The 41.8 kWh pack uses the same cells but is not physically identical to the 40 kWh pack in the base Model S.















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Old 08-04-2012, 01:44 PM   #71
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I think this is a nice EV who can afford it.

I don't think people who buy EVs currently are worried about the comparison between it and a gasoline version.

They are not selling in large volume, it is to promote consumer interest and fund electric R&D/technology.

No one who are interested in it are doing all the calculations you guys are doing, If you are then it wasn't for you.

People who are going to purchase one are not poor and not struggling to maximize fuel savings. They want something fresh, clean, and the idea behind it.
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Old 08-04-2012, 02:21 PM   #72
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Speaking of large electric vehicles. Saw a 30 ft delivery (Duane reade) truck that was all electric yesterday.
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:59 AM   #73
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Instead of making autos multi fuel like they successfully did in Brazil Obama decided we will all drive electric cars.A better idea would be to have autos use LNG or CNG as we now have abundant supply of clean burning gas. I wonder if he ever sat and waited for one to recharge? Not much has changed in 100 years battery technology. Too slow to recharge and not enough miles between charges.
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Old 08-06-2012, 11:12 AM   #74
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Instead of making autos multi fuel like they successfully did in Brazil Obama decided we will all drive electric cars.A better idea would be to have autos use LNG or CNG as we now have abundant supply of clean burning gas. I wonder if he ever sat and waited for one to recharge? Not much has changed in 100 years battery technology. Too slow to recharge and not enough miles between charges.
If you check history you would realize that a lot has changed. First electrics used to outsell gas cars That has changed last I checked. Steam cars trounced them all. Further we don't have an abundance of cheap labor and a tropical climate to grow sugarcane and create cheap ethanol.

Yes CNG or LNG is a much better bet for awhile, but if we go crazy we won't have an abundance of NG anymore. I do agree that it is a viable short term idea, but it seems only tangentially related since electrics can still find a niche and the progress on battery technology will benefit so many different uses it is somewhat staggering.
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Old 08-06-2012, 11:54 AM   #75
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Shale sourced NG has life cycle co2 emissions on par with gasoline, iirc. Burning it is cleaner but getting it from the earth isn't.
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