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Old 10-07-2012, 09:05 AM   #151
SCRAPPYDO
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52 Hours with a standard 120V outlet?

I do not care how big the batteries are, that is just crazy...

But if you own one, hope it makes you smile. If it does, then kudos for your purchase.
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Old 10-07-2012, 09:28 AM   #152
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52 Hours with a standard 120V outlet?

I do not care how big the batteries are, that is just crazy...

But if you own one, hope it makes you smile. If it does, then kudos for your purchase.
It has a pretty big battery, and you can only pull ~2000 watts from a 120V circuit, so it's going to take a looooong time to charge. 240V or bust, I guess.

What makes the charge time look worse is that a full charge gets you about 100 miles of range. So, every hour plugged in gets you 2 miles of range? That is awful.
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Old 10-07-2012, 08:57 PM   #153
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It has a pretty big battery, and you can only pull ~2000 watts from a 120V circuit, so it's going to take a looooong time to charge. 240V or bust, I guess.

What makes the charge time look worse is that a full charge gets you about 100 miles of range. So, every hour plugged in gets you 2 miles of range? That is awful.
That is life. A 50A 240 volt circuit costs how much? A 30A 240V circuit is even cheaper. I just priced the materials myself it the cost is minimal so worrying about 120V seems overly silly.
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Old 10-07-2012, 09:37 PM   #154
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That is life. A 50A 240 volt circuit costs how much? A 30A 240V circuit is even cheaper. I just priced the materials myself it the cost is minimal so worrying about 120V seems overly silly.
Yeah, it isn't a big deal to add another 240V circuit, I wasn't implying that it was (my service panel is in my garage, it would take less than an hour to do). Charging anything with a big battery on 120V seems like a dumb idea. I think even including the capability to charge on 120V is kind of stupid, but the manufacturers are in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. If they include it, people complain it takes too long. If they don't people complain that they need 240V to charge.
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Old 12-04-2012, 02:29 PM   #155
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I just got a call from a dealer saying that Toyota increased incentives on the RAV4 EV effective today. This implies that sales are flagging.

Toyota: Support and sell the vehicle north of San Francisco, in Portland and Seattle in particular, and you'd get at least one more sale, to me!

Anyway, the new incentives are actually pretty decent:

- 0% x 60 month financing for qualified buyers
- 0.0001 money factor for leases, which is basically equivalent
- $5k off MSRP for both financing and leasing
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Old 03-10-2013, 07:52 PM   #156
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I just got a call from a dealer saying that Toyota increased incentives on the RAV4 EV effective today. This implies that sales are flagging.
Since I wrote the above in December sales have continued to be awful. How awful? Try 52 in December and 77 in January. This is good news for prospective buyers, though, as the incentives are now ridiculously good. How good?



This, along with the release of the new-gen no-V6 RAV4 non-EV, means that I should update my back of napkin calculations below. Updated assumptions based on a vehicle and buyer based in Seattle:

Quote:
- Average gas price of $4/gallon, average electricity price of $0.10/kWh
- 12k miles/year
- Both vehicles financed for 60 months via Toyota Financial, @ 0% via the incentive above for the EV, @ 1.9% for the gas model
- Feature-matched comparison vehicle of an AWD RAV4 Limited with Softex, navi, and Entune, but no JBL or blind spot monitor. I'd pick FWD but it's not released yet and wouldn't materially change the analysis. It gets 25 mpg combined and costs $29.4k before destination as described.
- EV model with an MSRP of $49.8k before destination but with all manner of incentives as above, which uses 0.44 kWh/mile per fueleconomy.gov
- An EV buyer with an adjusted gross income sufficient to qualify for the full $7,500 Federal tax credit, and who lives in Seattle, where EVs are exempt from the 9.1% (iirc) sales/use tax on new vehicles
- EVSE cost pegged at $1,500 installed since The EV Project is ramping down and no longer offering free EVSE to Seattleites. Note that there's an EVSE tax credit that I'll ignore for these purposes since $1,500 is a nice, round number.
- Charger efficiency of 85%
Gas price formula per year: 12,000 miles * $X/gal / 25 mpg, which works out to $1,920 per year for X = 4.00.
Electricity price formula: 12,000 miles * $Y/kWh * 0.44 kWh/mile / 85% charging efficiency, which works out to $621 for Y = 0.10.
Therefore, the net running cost savings per year are $1,299 in favor of the EV, ignoring oil changes.

Net purchase price difference = ($49.8k MSRP + $0 sales/use tax and interest + $1,500 EVSE cost - $10,000 incentive cash - $7,500 tax credit) - ($29.4k MSRP * 1.091 sales/use tax + $2,793 interest over 60 months @ 1.9%) = - $1,068. That's right: After accounting for interest the EV is cheaper outright without accounting for running costs.

If we divide the interest evenly (which isn't quite true, as it's paid up front, iirc) over 5 years and factor in running costs, then we find the breakeven point comes at about 6 months, if I did the arithmetic correctly. In reality, it wouldn't be until the end of the year when one would file with the tax credit, but then again one could account for this and decrease withholdings appropriately, etc.

In any case, payoff is now within a year with the gasser @ 1.9%, and before 3 years if one landed 0% financing for the gas model.



(What's missing from the above is that the RAV4 EV's electrical bits are only serviceable at 50 authorized dealers, all of which are in California. Someone like me who would operate one in Seattle would be making a gamble on this basis, but at least wouldn't be paying for the privilege of doing so.)
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Old 03-10-2013, 08:32 PM   #157
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I bet I won't be alone, either, and that they'll sell every last one of the 2600 planned. .
Oh the irony...
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Old 03-10-2013, 08:38 PM   #158
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They'll sell those 2600. It just might take a decade.
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Old 03-10-2013, 08:43 PM   #159
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They'll sell those 2600. It just might take a decade.
At least you're a good sport about it. Plus you might get your ideal vehicle cheap.
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Old 03-10-2013, 08:48 PM   #160
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Yep. High demand and dealer markup would work against me: Initially some dealers I contacted last fall were asking for $5k over MSRP!

Now it looks genuinely possible to snag one, pre-tax credit for invoice - $10k, which is a pretty damn good price as my math attempts to demonstrate. Furthermore, it's a good price objectively, too, as Toyota has gone on record that they're paying Tesla $38k/unit for the powertrain. (Can't find the source now, hmm.) Buying one at the above price means buying a Tesla powertrain and getting the RAV4 thrown in for free.

Also relevant to the slow sales is this third hand anecdote:

Quote:
"I bumped into Elon at a dinner party. I asked about the Rav4 since it was not yet being delivered. He said that Toyota was not interested in selling the car. How do you know, I asked. He said the price ($50k) was too high for the car and that he offered to drop the price of the drive train to their manufacturing costs if Toyota would drop the price of the car the same amount. They said no."

"You only say no if you don't want to sell the cars."
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Old 03-10-2013, 08:59 PM   #161
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I cannot believe how poorly this is doing.

I am actually bummed since I want a SUV PHEV myself for my next vehicle. If this is selling so terribly then it is possible that no automaker will bother making my ideal vehicle.

The question is: Is this b/c the people who buy EVs for image issues don't want to be seen in a SUV? Is it b/c people who like SUVs want to go camping etc (or pretend they will)?

I remember the first hybrid that was sold and cost effective was the Chevy silverado which was also poorly received even though the payback was fairly quick. When you do the calculations the best options for PHEVs and hybrids are still SUVs, but they certainly haven't got the same reception.
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Old 03-10-2013, 09:10 PM   #162
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I am actually bummed since I want a SUV PHEV myself for my next vehicle. If this is selling so terribly then it is possible that no automaker will bother making my ideal vehicle.

Tesla Model X? I realize it isn't PHEV but rather a PEV.
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Old 03-10-2013, 09:33 PM   #163
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I cannot believe how poorly this is doing.

I am actually bummed since I want a SUV PHEV myself for my next vehicle. If this is selling so terribly then it is possible that no automaker will bother making my ideal vehicle.

The question is: Is this b/c the people who buy EVs for image issues don't want to be seen in a SUV? Is it b/c people who like SUVs want to go camping etc (or pretend they will)?

I remember the first hybrid that was sold and cost effective was the Chevy silverado which was also poorly received even though the payback was fairly quick. When you do the calculations the best options for PHEVs and hybrids are still SUVs, but they certainly haven't got the same reception.
Well, I think the Rav EV would do a little better if there weren't an obviously new version of the Rav sitting beside it on lots. The other thing that goes against the SUV EV is that the SUV says "freedom" to most of America*. A limited range does limit that freedom to an extent.

I'd be all about a hybrid 4Runner but I don't think it would be well received. I love my Prius, though, so the crosssection of people that love their nerdy hybrid and their BOF SUV is probably pretty narrow.

*Despite most of today's SUVs being confined to pavement and gravel roads.
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Old 03-10-2013, 10:23 PM   #164
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sxotty: Mitsu Outlander PHEV? If Mitsubishi is still solvent…

Quentin: You know I'd rock a diesel hybrid LC200.
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Old 03-11-2013, 07:02 AM   #165
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Shika that is what I have been looking at for awhile now, but you raise some of the points I wonder about. I was also bummed they took out the pop up back seats. I know those seats were awful anyway, but ferrying people around town when you have no gear they can deal with jump seats and on long trips you could get the cargo room. Anyway I am still looking at that, but I have yet to see a real review of it posted. I wonder about the towing capacity as well. I have googled it and people say it has the same towing capacity as the regular outlander, but I don't think that is correct and there is nothing official I could find yet. Mitsu had a fun power point though
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Old 03-11-2013, 08:18 AM   #166
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Old 03-11-2013, 09:54 AM   #167
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I wish you luck Shik on your purchase, but I knew at 50 grand this was dead in the water. But tack on 18000 dollars in incentives, and this starts to make sense for certain people.

Now if at this new price point, it still languishes then I can only blame toyota for not marketing it well enough. With those incentives even it should sell.
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Old 03-11-2013, 10:56 AM   #168
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$50k
- $7500 (fed tax credit)
- $10000 (Toyota incentive)
- $7500 (WV state tax credit)
= $25000

Too bad it is only available in CA.
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Old 03-11-2013, 11:02 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by quentinberg007 View Post
$50k
- $7500 (fed tax credit)
- $10000 (Toyota incentive)
- $7500 (WV state tax credit)
= $25000

Too bad it is only available in CA.
You owe $7500 in state tax and/or fed?
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:18 PM   #170
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You owe $7500 in state tax and/or fed?
Fed, god yes. State, no. You can roll over the state tax credit to the following year, though.
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:25 PM   #171
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Too bad it is only available in CA.
You just don't know the right people
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:46 PM   #172
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Fed, god yes. State, no. You can roll over the state tax credit to the following year, though.
I didn't realize you could roll over the state tax credit. Good to know.

For someone like me, the $7500 federal/state tax credits doesn't do much for me since I get a refund of about $5-6k each year. I know for some that tax credit would be nice.
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:51 PM   #173
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I didn't realize you could roll over the state tax credit. Good to know.

For someone like me, the $7500 federal/state tax credits doesn't do much for me since I get a refund of about $5-6k each year. I know for some that tax credit would be nice.
You get a refund because you've paid tax all year out of your paycheck and you've paid more than you owe. With a tax credit you would owe less so you would probably get a bigger refund. It benefits anyone who earns taxable income.
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:54 PM   #174
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You get a refund because you've paid tax all year out of your paycheck and you've paid more than you owe. With a tax credit you will owe less so you will get a bigger refund. It benefits anyone who earns taxable income.

The thing is, I would never have a tax bill of $7,500. Plus the issue is that you get "up to" $7500 in tax credit. Uncle Sam doesn't cut you a refund check for the left over.
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Old 03-11-2013, 01:34 PM   #175
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The thing is, I would never have a tax bill of $7,500. Plus the issue is that you get "up to" $7500 in tax credit. Uncle Sam doesn't cut you a refund check for the left over.
in which case you prob don't have the income to be shopping for a $20k+ car.
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