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View Poll Results: When do you think the war will start?
By the end of next week (Fri 03/14/03). Moves at the UN will ultimately be a show. 11 15.94%
Week after next starting (Mon 03/17/03) 19 27.54%
Week after that starting (Mon 03/24/03) 15 21.74%
Into next month (Mon 03/31/03) 8 11.59%
Will happen, but not as soon as is suggested by this poll 9 13.04%
No, we will not go to war at all, peace will prevail 7 10.14%
Voters: 69. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-07-2003, 08:22 AM   #1
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Question When do you think the war will start?

I'm convinced we are going to war. I'm not happy that this is going to happen, but I think at this point it is unavoidable.

lateRZ
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Old 03-07-2003, 08:47 AM   #2
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Considering that Turkey has basically refused to let us use their country for an attack that means we have to more whatever troops and equipment that we have there now over to Saudi Arabia or Kuwait which will take some time to do. Plus the gov is still calling up reservists and moving more equipment over there. After all they will need enough man power and equipment to not only invade but to occupy Iraq.
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Old 03-07-2003, 09:06 AM   #3
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Lightbulb Most of our forces are already in position....

...and this is per the media. [Who knows what else is already going on. On this side of a DoD security clearance? Probably no one.]

300,000 US troops in middle east right now. I think this is enough to get the job done, and then some.

Most of them are in Kuwait.

Supposedly, there is a "secretive" base being staged for action in Saudi Arabia (comprised of JSOC and support).

We already have multiple carriers in the area (would a carrier group be out of the question?)

I think the ships that are en route at the moment are for sustainability purposes, we already possess effective first strike capability. All it takes is a phone call, so to speak.

lateRZ
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Old 03-07-2003, 09:52 AM   #4
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I vote for whenever the next new moon is. Darkness is the ally of stealth.
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Old 03-07-2003, 10:00 AM   #5
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Those who know, won't tell; and those who would tell, don't know.
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Old 03-07-2003, 10:09 AM   #6
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Lightbulb There will be alot of nightfighting...

Quote:
Originally posted by e_a_olson
I vote for whenever the next new moon is. Darkness is the ally of stealth.
Our groundtroops are carrying a significant amount of gear, fighting during daylight hours takes away both stealth and stamina. As we move further into March the daytime temps are going to be in the 80s....

I don't think we'll wait for a new moon though, as the press is reporting that Bush is asking for 3-7days maximum, if any, extension for Iraq's compliance.

lateRZ
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Old 03-07-2003, 10:37 AM   #7
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In point of fact. I suspect that it'll start in the next couple of days or it won't start until the beginning of next month.
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Old 03-07-2003, 10:48 AM   #8
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I think there will be some action by next weekend.
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Old 03-07-2003, 11:07 AM   #9
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Two of my friends left yesterday headed for the middle east. They were given a big 24hrs notice before heading out. Well at least a war would be a plus for Bush considering he's calling up a lot of the reservists which helps out the national unemployment numbers. Its expected to be larger then the 5.9% that they orignally claimed. The official word is supposed to come out today.
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Old 03-07-2003, 12:35 PM   #10
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Post Ack!

It would appear as of now, that 90% of polled NASIOC folks feel that war is inevitable. Most of us think it's going to go down in the next 2-3 weeks as well.

lateRZ
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Old 03-07-2003, 12:45 PM   #11
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"I vote for whenever the next new moon is. Darkness is the ally of stealth."

I agree.
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Old 03-07-2003, 01:26 PM   #12
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Given that "coalition" air forces are already flying several hundred missions each day, don't you think that the war has already started?
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Old 03-07-2003, 01:31 PM   #13
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Default Re: There will be alot of nightfighting...

Quote:
Originally posted by PhlypSide


Our groundtroops are carrying a significant amount of gear, fighting during daylight hours takes away both stealth and stamina. As we move further into March the daytime temps are going to be in the 80s....

I don't think we'll wait for a new moon though, as the press is reporting that Bush is asking for 3-7days maximum, if any, extension for Iraq's compliance.

lateRZ
I think the rationale for the new moon is to give bombers the best advantage. I figure that we are going to bomb the hell out of them fast and quick, so that ground troops face little resistance and less casualties. I have no idea what is going to happen in Bagdad, if it'll be hand to hand combat or Iraqi troops will give up without much fight. Crossing the desert shouldnt be that difficult.
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Old 03-07-2003, 01:35 PM   #14
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Well since the US has intentions of occupying Iraq afterwards they have already said that this time they won't be out to blow up bridges, power plants, water plants and things of that nature. This time we will bomb palaces, military bases, potential military structure and just about anything else. It should be a somewhat easier task this time around since we already have 2/3 the countries air space under our control and have been blowing up radar sites for the last couple weeks.
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Old 03-07-2003, 01:37 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by HoRo1
Given that "coalition" air forces are already flying several hundred missions each day, don't you think that the war has already started?
That's an excellent point. Maybe the question could be refined to "When will the war start outside the 'No-Fly Zone' and the deposition of Saddam Hussein commence?."
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Old 03-07-2003, 01:47 PM   #16
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Default Re: Re: There will be alot of nightfighting...

Quote:
Originally posted by impez
I think the rationale for the new moon is to give bombers the best advantage. I figure that we are going to bomb the hell out of them fast and quick, so that ground troops face little resistance and less casualties. I have no idea what is going to happen in Bagdad, if it'll be hand to hand combat or Iraqi troops will give up without much fight. Crossing the desert shouldnt be that difficult.
If we were going to bomb for a month I'd agree with you. But I think we're only gonna bomb for about 2-3 days before the ground assault begins. And the new moon is much more advantageous for our ground troops than it is for our air campaign, since the Iraqi air force and air defense are pretty much non-existent. However, our ground troops like the dark too, and our night vision capability is much greater than the Iraqi's.

In short, a few nights before the new moon. I say the 25th of March or so...

Cheers,
Grant
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Old 03-07-2003, 03:29 PM   #17
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Post After hearing about the UN goings on today...

It would appear likely that action would occur no sooner than Monday 03/17/03 unless either side gets drastic in the meantime and pre-emptively pulls the trigger.

lateRZ
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Old 03-11-2003, 06:02 PM   #18
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Question More UN drama no?

Yep any day now.... unmanned drones... harmless they said.... *grin*

lateRZ
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Old 03-11-2003, 06:30 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by HoRo1
Given that "coalition" air forces are already flying several hundred missions each day, don't you think that the war has already started?
Agreed; plus don't we already have troops operating inside Iraq? The way I look at it, the war never really ended 12 yrs ago; it's just getting hotter now.

(The situation in Korea is similar; that war is technically still going.)
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Old 03-11-2003, 07:39 PM   #20
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Yep NK only signed a cease fire agreement. However they are now talking about backing out of the cease fire agreement if the US doesn't give in to certain demands and start shipping them food and oil. Basically extorsion.
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Old 03-12-2003, 10:40 AM   #21
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Question Given all the advance notice....

....do you think the Iraqis will strike first?

It's not like CNN and Al Jazeera haven't been blabbing all our plans (not to mention the impossible task of trying to covertly move 250,000 troops, hardware, and supplies) all along anyhow.

However I suspect that as tensions build it is a very real possibility that someone will pull a blitzkrieg here.

Did you guys read some of the "benchmarks" reputedly proposed by the next (and most likely final) UN Resolution on this situation? They basically require Saddam to admit he's been lying and to turn over the weapons he's been lying about.

I bet he won't agree to save face (and to try and play off of the international sympathy).

lateRZ
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Old 03-12-2003, 12:02 PM   #22
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Default Re: Given all the advance notice....

Quote:
Originally posted by PhlypSide
....do you think the Iraqis will strike first?

It's not like CNN and Al Jazeera haven't been blabbing all our plans (not to mention the impossible task of trying to covertly move 250,000 troops, hardware, and supplies) all along anyhow.

However I suspect that as tensions build it is a very real possibility that someone will pull a blitzkrieg here.

Did you guys read some of the "benchmarks" reputedly proposed by the next (and most likely final) UN Resolution on this situation? They basically require Saddam to admit he's been lying and to turn over the weapons he's been lying about.

I bet he won't agree to save face (and to try and play off of the international sympathy).

lateRZ
If Iraq attacked first, they would lose international sympathy and give the US reason to go ahead and invade, both things Saddam would desperately like to avoid. He isn't that stupid or crazy.
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Old 03-13-2003, 05:08 AM   #23
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Default slightly before the new moon

http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/vphase.html

http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneYear.html
MIDDLE EAST
KWI KUWAIT, KUWAIT 29 20 N 48 00 E
RUH RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA 24 39 N 46 46 E
BGW BAGHDAD, IRAQ 33 20 N 44 26 E


Time zone for Iraq is +3 east of Greenwich, or 8 hours earlier the previous day eastern standard time.

Baghdad
--- March
--- Moon
--- Rise -- Set
20 0142 1332
21 0253 1408
22 0405 1447
23 0517 1532
24 0626 1623
25 0730 1720
26 0826 1821
27 0914 1923
28 0955 2025
29 1030 2125
30 1101 2223

First militarily useful new moon would be the morning of the 20th or 21st For covert insertions etc. and for an open air offensive the 22nd to 23rd.

If they in fact use the "shock and awe" strategy they will try to achieve "time on target" bombings. Meaning they will adjust flight times of both cruise missles and aircraft bombings so they arrive on target as close to simultanously as possible. This would saturate any remaining triple A capability and maximise the disruption of the attack.

My bet is the morning of the 21st, which would be about 7:00 pm eastern time the 20th here in the US.

Total darkness is essential for the first waves of stealth aircraft to preserve their stealth. Overcast conditions could move these dates a couple each way depending on the altitude of the cloud deck.

Ground troops will be able to do short duration ground ops a couple days earlier if they can lay low somewhere following moon rise.

The opening moments of the US air strikes for the first Gulf war occured about 6:00-7:00 pm Eastern standard time here in the US.

Larry
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Old 03-13-2003, 09:58 AM   #24
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Talking hotrod: wow

With the first ever *known* forward deployment of F117 Stealths, I'd have to agree that darkness is key to their most effective use.

I will be spooked if your prediction is right on.

lateRZ
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Old 03-13-2003, 10:28 AM   #25
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My brother told me that he doesn't have much more time to be sending Emails and letters back home. He said all there have an erie feeling that the war is closer than everyone expects.

(he's currently in Kuwait.....active duty)
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