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Old 12-18-2008, 01:25 PM   #1
AVANTI R5
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Default U.S. predicts flat oil consumption to 2030

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Washington, D.C. - A new report issued by the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects flat oil consumption to 2030, along with slower growth in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, and reduced dependence on imported fuels.


The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO) presents updated projections for U.S. energy consumption and production through 2030.


For the first time in more than 20 years, the new AEO projects virtually no growth in U.S. oil consumption, reflecting a combination of recently-enacted CAFE standards, requirements for the increased use of renewable fuels, and an assumed rebound in oil prices as the world economy recovers. With overall liquid fuel demand projected to increase by only one million barrels per day between 2007 and 2030, along with the increased use of domestically-produced biofuels and rising domestic oil production, the report projects that the net import share of total liquids supplied, including biofuels, will decline from 58 per cent in 2007 to less than 40 per cent in 2025, before increasing to 41 per cent in 2030.


When combined with efficiency policies, higher energy prices, the increased use of renewable fuels and a reduction in projected additions of new coal-fired conventional power plants, the report projects a slow growth in energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to grow at 0.3 per cent per year from 2007 to 2030, to a level of 6,410 million metric tonnes in 2030, compared to the projection of 6,851 million metric tonnes in the 2008 version of the AEO.


The assumption of a higher world oil price path in the 2009 AEO reflects tighter constraints on access to low-cost oil supplies, in a setting where the forces driving growth in long-term demand in non-OECD countries remains as strong as previously expected. The report projects that world crude oil prices, averaging near US$60 (2007 dollars) per barrel in 2009 will rise to $130 per barrel in 2007 dollars in 2030, or $189 per barrel in nominal dollars.


The report projects that the total consumption of marketed renewable fuels, including wood, municipal waste, and biomass in the end use sectors, along with hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal waste, biomass, solar and wind for electric power generation, ethanol for gasoline blending, and biomass-based diesel, will grow by 3.3 per cent per year.


The report also projects vehicle characteristics, and proposes a sharp increase in the sale of unconventional vehicle technologies, including flexible-fuel, hybrid and diesel vehicles, along with a significant decline in the new light-truck share of total light-duty vehicle sales.



Hybrid vehicles of all varieties are expected to increase from two per cent of new light-duty vehicle sales in 2007, to 38 per cent in 2030. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), supported by tax credits, are projected to grow to 90,000 vehicles annually by 2014. By 2030, PHEVs are projected to account for two per cent of all new light-vehicle sales.
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Old 12-18-2008, 01:30 PM   #2
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How the hell do they know what we're going to do in 20 years?
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Old 12-18-2008, 01:32 PM   #3
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Last July, they were predicting oil would be $250/barrel by December.
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Old 12-18-2008, 01:46 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by plunk10 View Post
Last July, they were predicting oil would be $250/barrel by December.
Exactly! Where is the drill here now crowd now?

Cheap oil or not, we need to develop alternatives.
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Old 12-18-2008, 02:34 PM   #5
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How the hell do they know what we're going to do in 20 years?
Because not only supply and demand dictates the cost of light sweet crude oil or any other tradable commodity for that matter. Derivatives and many other financial instruments that are visible today control market conditions in the future.
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Old 12-18-2008, 02:35 PM   #6
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if there is even an economy in 20 years..
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Old 12-18-2008, 03:01 PM   #7
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Exactly! Where is the drill here now crowd now?
She's back to Alaska
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Old 12-19-2008, 01:32 PM   #8
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Well the consumption can't increase if peak oil is here and most likely it is. The hadn't counted on the economic collapse when they predicted 250 per barrel.

If anything, it will be falling oil consumption.
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Old 12-19-2008, 01:37 PM   #9
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She's back to Alaska
She got the"drill here" idea from the tattoo on her backside.
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Old 12-19-2008, 02:10 PM   #10
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Well the consumption can't increase if peak oil is here and most likely it is. The hadn't counted on the economic collapse when they predicted 250 per barrel.

If anything, it will be falling oil consumption.
Peak Oil is a myth. When you work for an oil company, you always hear of "Brand-New" Discoveries that yield billions of barrels. Brazil, the Arctic, India, and many other places have had HUGE discoveries in the last 2-3 years, that you will not hear about in the local paper.

While the stuff is there, is it worth drilling after the finance folks looks at the supply/demand/profit numbers? Usually no. Not until the current "easy wells" dry up first. Peak Oil is bull****. If you want to know more ask me, maybe if you look hard enough online you can find some more information.
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Old 12-19-2008, 02:35 PM   #11
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Oil consumption for the US might be predicted as flat - but its a global resource and flat consumption doesn't mean flat prices. Don't confuse the two!

As an individual you need to seek out the best vehicle with the best milege for your needs - to limit your exposure to unessisary fuel costs down the line. If you need and use a large vehicle then you will justify the cost and be fine with it- if you do not need and use a large vehicle but own one you'r not going to be happy with it or the added cost you incure for capabilitys you don't use.
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Old 12-19-2008, 03:10 PM   #12
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Well the consumption can't increase if peak oil is here and most likely it is. The hadn't counted on the economic collapse when they predicted 250 per barrel.

If anything, it will be falling oil consumption.
They didn't count on the fact that every household had a car in china in 2015 now did they either? Oh wait, they didn't know about that like they didn't know about the economic collapse 6 months from when they made that prediction. Back to the DeLorean Marty!
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Old 12-19-2008, 03:39 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Zyrtor View Post
Peak Oil is a myth. When you work for an oil company, you always hear of "Brand-New" Discoveries that yield billions of barrels. Brazil, the Arctic, India, and many other places have had HUGE discoveries in the last 2-3 years, that you will not hear about in the local paper.

While the stuff is there, is it worth drilling after the finance folks looks at the supply/demand/profit numbers? Usually no. Not until the current "easy wells" dry up first. Peak Oil is bull****. If you want to know more ask me, maybe if you look hard enough online you can find some more information.
I suppose that we can expect US oil production to ramp back up after peaking back in 1970? And you might want to check in with Norway, the UK, and Mexico about this peaking BS.

Eventually all fields peak. And the current discovery rate still doesn't make up for the 30 - 31 billion barrels we use per year. Also peak oil is about flow rates and the current economic climate is delaying scheduled projects that will be needed to match the global decline rates that were recently mentioned in the IEA report.
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Old 12-19-2008, 03:50 PM   #14
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They didn't count on the fact that every household had a car in china in 2015 now did they either? Oh wait, they didn't know about that like they didn't know about the economic collapse 6 months from when they made that prediction. Back to the DeLorean Marty!
huh?
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Old 12-19-2008, 03:53 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Zyrtor View Post
Peak Oil is a myth. When you work for an oil company, you always hear of "Brand-New" Discoveries that yield billions of barrels. Brazil, the Arctic, India, and many other places have had HUGE discoveries in the last 2-3 years, that you will not hear about in the local paper.

While the stuff is there, is it worth drilling after the finance folks looks at the supply/demand/profit numbers? Usually no. Not until the current "easy wells" dry up first. Peak Oil is bull****. If you want to know more ask me, maybe if you look hard enough online you can find some more information.
So you are saying in the future, exceed the rate of oil production in 2008?

Peak oil is all bout production rate. Not about what is left in the ground. You can have all the oil in the ground you want but if you can't extract fast enough it doesn't do you much good.

I hope you are right that it is a myth. But as someone already pointed out, the United States definitely peaked.
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Old 12-19-2008, 04:17 PM   #16
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Wirelessly posted (BlackBerry8100/4.2.1 Profile/MIDP-2.0 Configuration/CLDC-1.1 VendorID/100)

Reported finds are guesses. Educated guesses, but still guesses.

Estimated reserves are even worse. Most oil reserves are owned by governments that have strategic reasons for mis-stating their reserves.

Individual wells follow a decline pattern. Production of fields follows the same curve. Ditto basins.

There is not an infinite amount down there. We need to prepare for it becoming completely uneconomic to continue using. Fortunately a variety of factor are coming together to make this possible.
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Old 12-19-2008, 07:34 PM   #17
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How in the world can anybody expect to predict oil use over a 20 year period? How do you take into account economic upturns and downturns, huge changes in demand like when the Soviet Union collapsed? What about World War 3 or any other major conflicts for that matter?

What happens if some company finds a cheap way to produce hydrogen or some other way to create a major affordable energy source to compete with oil by 2020? Technology has a tendancy to develop on a curve rather than in a linear fashion, basically as technology develops, we have the ability to develop new technology at an increasing rate, so a new energy source in 10-15 years from now is not an impossibility, especially when there's such a large potential for huge finanacial gain in something that could be really competitive with oil as an energy source.

A lot can happen in 20 years, so I think it's a bit of an empty claim to say that anybody can accurately predict the flow of a major market for the next 2 decades.

Last edited by jhargis; 12-20-2008 at 10:40 AM.
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Old 12-19-2008, 07:48 PM   #18
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energy consumption will go down starting in 10 years due to the "baby boom" generation taking their last ride in a hearse and higher mpg cars
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Old 12-20-2008, 12:27 PM   #19
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energy consumption will go down starting in 10 years due to the "baby boom" generation taking their last ride in a hearse and higher mpg cars
I've been noticing that alot of people are using minivans as hearses these days instead of the "caddilac sportwagon".

Here's my higher mileage solution so my last ride isn't in a minivan

http://www.themotorcyclehearse.com/index2.htm
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