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Old 02-20-2013, 05:53 PM   #1
shikataganai
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OMGHi2U Tesla Motors 4Q 2012 financial results



http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavi...ees-q1-profit/

CN:

- $306M revenue, GAAP loss of 79 cents per share, with 2,400 Model S deliveries accounting for both figures
- Now up to 5,000 Model S per quarter production run rate, with 6,000 new reservations in the quarter and 15,000 net reservations outstanding
- Profit before non-cash expenses expected now in Q1 2013! Similarly, cash flow from operations should be near the break-even point in Q1.

So the sea of red ink may be near its end. Of course, there's still years of profitable quarters ahead of Tesla before their investors can recoup their initial investments. It's nevertheless good to see production at a rate of of 20k/yr along with 9 months-and-growing of outstanding reservations.

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Old 02-20-2013, 05:54 PM   #2
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IB moronic Luddite rants.
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Old 02-20-2013, 08:22 PM   #3
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Self fulfilling prophecy Integra...good for you. But I do not think you are a moron. Misguided maybe. I am sure one of your friends will be here soon to boost your own self worth though.

This is actually good news. I do worry that the amount of people in the market for a super expensive car like this may saturate fast. IF they are going to keep up momentum, they will need a small entry level car before they run out of the niche market.

I have doubts that they will be able to sell 20k units per year, and especially on a year over year basis. But we will see.

Despite what Integra and his minions spout, I have always said that TESLA and FISKAR while not my cup of tea will be judged a success based on sales. If they can find buyers then good for them. I have my doubts though.
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Old 02-20-2013, 08:53 PM   #4
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They're accumulating reservations at quicker than their 20k/yr production rate, even with a base Model S starting at $60k pre-tax credit. Sounds good to me.

FiskEr (not fiskAr) is a lost cause, on the other hand. Stupid product, even more stupid of a price, and the market responded appropriately, IMO.
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Old 02-20-2013, 09:56 PM   #5
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Accumulating orders at a rate of 20k/yr is not the same thing as having 20k orders. IF it holds out, then good for them. Hope they make a ton of money off of it. But success or failure is not decided on internet forums, it is decided on the sales floor.
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Old 02-20-2013, 10:14 PM   #6
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They have 15k net orders, per my/the OP's link. 3 quarters worth of orders and more orders coming in than are being fulfilled.

In comparison, note the domestic, conventional car makers' tactic of building a ****-ton of vehicles, channel-stuffing to 120 days or so of inventory, and then shutting down the factories for a few weeks.
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Old 02-20-2013, 10:22 PM   #7
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I like this tidbit:

2650 sold in 2012. Of that 2400 were sold in Q4. I'm long the stock and am looking forward to watching the future of the industry. Mass Customized cars that are basically pre sold before building is a much better model than building millions of cars and hoping they sell.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:18 PM   #8
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Can't wait until a 300mile version can be had for around 50k. It's a great car.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:20 PM   #9
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Can't wait until a 300mile version can be had for around 50k. It's a great car.
+1 a 3 series fighter in the $40's is also on my wish list.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:05 AM   #10
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Can't wait until a 300mile version can be had for around 50k. It's a great car.
I wouldn't expect high depreciation until the battery is almost ready to be replaced and at that point you'll need to factor in battery replacement costs. There's very little, mechanically, to wear out and likely by the time the battery is ready to be replaced Tesla will have some even more impressive replacement options.

The biggest detriments to the value of the car will be likely be crash damage and interior wear.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:12 AM   #11
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Battery replacement costs. Reason #1,345 to hate all electric cars.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:26 AM   #12
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I wouldn't expect high depreciation until the battery is almost ready to be replaced and at that point you'll need to factor in battery replacement costs. There's very little, mechanically, to wear out and likely by the time the battery is ready to be replaced Tesla will have some even more impressive replacement options.

The biggest detriments to the value of the car will be likely be crash damage and interior wear.
While I think this this is true for the most part and must concede they are certainly less mechanically complex than an ICE I have to wonder how they will fair over the long haul. Electric motors do not run smoothly forever. Bearings wear, grit finds its way into them. More importantly, terminals corrode. I have spent hours cleaning the terminals of my old Datsun.

It will be a couple of decades before we know this though I am afraid. Until charging stations are widely available and quick charging is commonplace, they will be mostly garage queen errand cars. Used only for short commutes mostly. So they will probably not rack up any significant miles.

I fear that when and if we go full mainstream EV, then we have taken one step further into the disposable car. LIke most electric appliances, you just throw them away when you are done with them.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:40 AM   #13
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It will be a couple of decades before we know this though I am afraid. Until charging stations are widely available and quick charging is commonplace, they will be mostly garage queen errand cars. Used only for short commutes mostly. So they will probably not rack up any significant miles.
You could easily put 150 miles on a Model S every day. These are 7 passenger family cars.. not garage queens. Just because they won't be used for long trips doesn't mean they won't be driven on a regular basis.

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I fear that when and if we go full mainstream EV, then we have taken one step further into the disposable car. LIke most electric appliances, you just throw them away when you are done with them.
Planned obsolescence is real and it's already here and the norm in the auto industry. Musk is such an egomaniac with so much to prove he's probably worked against it.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:57 AM   #14
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Battery replacement costs. Reason #1,345 to hate all electric cars.
Because no one here has EVER had to replace an engine...
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:29 AM   #15
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While I think this this is true for the most part and must concede they are certainly less mechanically complex than an ICE I have to wonder how they will fair over the long haul. Electric motors do not run smoothly forever. Bearings wear, grit finds its way into them. More importantly, terminals corrode. I have spent hours cleaning the terminals of my old Datsun.
Come on, current electrical technology vs. an "old Datsun". Electric motors don't run forever, but nor does combustion engines. Nothing runs forever without maintenance...

Anyways, the Tesla is an excellent vehicle and with millions of dollars in energy storage research (tons going into it, and material science, especially in universities). Better things are going to happen.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:34 AM   #16
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Mass Customized cars that are basically pre sold before building is a much better model than building millions of cars and hoping they sell.
Bingo. I yearn of a day when you go to a boutique, pick out your options on the kiosk, and it's built and delivered. There should be no sales people needed.

The only thing that helps having cars pre-manufactured is for those that have a loss and immediate need for a car. (There's always rentals for the meantime).

--kC
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Old 02-21-2013, 10:02 AM   #17
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Come on, current electrical technology vs. an "old Datsun". Electric motors don't run forever, but nor does combustion engines. Nothing runs forever without maintenance...

Anyways, the Tesla is an excellent vehicle and with millions of dollars in energy storage research (tons going into it, and material science,
especially in universities). Better things are going to happen.
So you are saying we have made electronics that never corrode, or degrade over time! We have made connections that will forever be pristine and never go bad or get loose?

I mean I hear you the Datsun is not a pinnacle of electrical prowess. But a guy here at work had his 2013 CX5 catch on fire and burn to the ground due to an electrical short. These things happen. O2 sensors fail. Coils fail. Battery terminals corrode, Throttle position sensors fail. Voltage Regulators fail. Are they better than they were 40 years ago. Most certainly. Will the electrics of today last 40 years. I have my doubts. The more complex cars are the more there is to fail, and the harder they are to repair.

Individual components use to be rebuildable, now, more and more of the parts on cars today are throw away and replace.

It is not that far into science fiction to think of a time when it will be cheaper to throw away your car for recycling and get a new one than to repair or rebuild it.
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Old 02-21-2013, 10:30 AM   #18
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O2 sensors fail.
Because they're exposed to heat and corrosive exhaust gasses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
Coils fail.
Because they're exposed to engine heat and vibration.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
Battery terminals corrode,
Because lead-acid batteries outgas and the gas is what causes the corrosion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
Throttle position sensors fail.
heat & vibration.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
Voltage Regulators fail.
heat, vibration & somewhat archaic power sources they're trying to temper (alternators).

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Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
The more complex cars are the more there is to fail, and the harder they are to repair.
Which is why electric cars so so brilliant. A Tesla Roadster has far fewer moving parts than a Lotus Elise.

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Individual components use to be rebuildable, now, more and more of the parts on cars today are throw away and replace.
Good thing batteries are largely recyclable and motors can be rewound. The cars being built today are being done so with planned obsolescence... throw away and replace is the plan for 99% of the cars on the road.

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It is not that far into science fiction to think of a time when it will be cheaper to throw away your car for recycling and get a new one than to repair or rebuild it.
Says the new owner of a turbocharged AWD VW Golf.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:08 AM   #19
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I know, I KNOW

I am tempting fate talking about electrical gremlins when I drive a VW!!!!
But you left one thing out buddy that buys me some time.

It is a NEW turbocharged AWD VW golf. And you can bet if my history shows, I will get rid of it as soon as practical, or as soon as Subaru makes a Legacy worth buying.

All of the parts on any car electric or otherwise will be subjected to vibration and heat. Removing the ICE does remove a big source grant you, but leaving a car out in the sun in summer will bake plastics fairly well. And all cars drive on bad roads so vibrations are a design issue they will always have to deal with it.

Electric cars will not break like ICE cars do. They will find new ways to break. That I can assure you.

If you are asking me to buy into the concept that a gas powered golf cart is less reliable than a electric golf cart you will not get much argument out of me. Anybody who argues that is a fool.

I will counter by saying this. Reliability is not the best yardstick for which to judge the greatness of a car.

Nobody ever sang a song about a corolla. A camry is not the kind of car one is passionate about. Being reliable is the sensible choice. It is marrying the girl who works in the library, and not the hot stripper. It will appeal to the masses when the technology is up to snuff and the switch to EV is seamless. But I will miss the sound of a well tuned engine. And the feel of a smooth running ICE. Those days are coming, but luckily I will probably be commited before it happens on any kind of scale.

I do bow to the fact I am not in the majority among younger buyers who seem to not care about cars in general. They are appliances, and if ever there was an souless appliance, it is an electric car like a leaf, or a focus EV. I grew up builidng my own motors and still do. I fix things, when I can.

Even the highly dynamic Model S I find has absolutely no soul or heart. Maybe in 30 years my opinion will change.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:40 AM   #20
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Even the highly dynamic Model S I find has absolutely no soul or heart. Maybe in 30 years my opinion will change.
So, this is your driving impression? I didn't realize you had already driven one.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:45 AM   #21
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I wouldn't expect high depreciation until the battery is almost ready to be replaced and at that point you'll need to factor in battery replacement costs. There's very little, mechanically, to wear out and likely by the time the battery is ready to be replaced Tesla will have some even more impressive replacement options.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blubaru703 View Post
Battery replacement costs. Reason #1,345 to hate all electric cars.
Recall that Tesla lets one pre-buy a replacement battery voucher to be used 8 years down the road. $8, 10, 12k for 40, 65, 85 kWh, respectively. Transferrable to future owners, too, iirc.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:45 AM   #22
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Nobody ever sang a song about a corolla. A camry is not the kind of car one is passionate about. Being reliable is the sensible choice. It is marrying the girl who works in the library, and not the hot stripper. It will appeal to the masses when the technology is up to snuff and the switch to EV is seamless. But I will miss the sound of a well tuned engine. And the feel of a smooth running ICE. Those days are coming, but luckily I will probably be commited before it happens on any kind of scale.

I do bow to the fact I am not in the majority among younger buyers who seem to not care about cars in general. They are appliances, and if ever there was an souless appliance, it is an electric car like a leaf, or a focus EV. I grew up builidng my own motors and still do. I fix things, when I can.

Even the highly dynamic Model S I find has absolutely no soul or heart. Maybe in 30 years my opinion will change.
I'm guessing people said the same thing about their horses when cars first came out.
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:48 AM   #23
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Bingo. I yearn of a day when you go to a boutique, pick out your options on the kiosk, and it's built and delivered. There should be no sales people needed.

The only thing that helps having cars pre-manufactured is for those that have a loss and immediate need for a car. (There's always rentals for the meantime).

--kC
Agreed. That model is the future of all retail/manufacturing. Self-customize, then pay, then build and deliver. Cut out the need for stores, salesmen, and the balance sheet will show almost 0 inventory, which kills companies.

For people who need a car now there will be models that can be built faster or a few pre-built examples...and used cars.
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Old 02-21-2013, 01:18 PM   #24
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I'm guessing people said the same thing about their horses when cars first came out.
Probably not as cars were an improvement on a horse in every measureable aspect. An EV was is just a car without an ICE. In many ways it cannot do the job a regular car can. Where as the ICE car can carry more, pull more, go faster farther than a horse.

If you had to guess, I would say that you should guess people thought they were noisy and smelly and ugly. But since they were better for moving people faster they caught on.

An EV is not better at moving people it is worse for the time being. Until a huge charging network is built, they will be toys.

EV were out in greater numbers than ICE back in late 1890's and early 1900's and lack of infrastructure killed them off.

Gasoline is far more energy dense, and even though it is highly inefficient way to move a car, it is still better. Again, for now. Replace all the gasoline stations with supercharging stations, and people may start to shift opinions.
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Old 02-21-2013, 01:21 PM   #25
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So, this is your driving impression? I didn't realize you had already driven one.
I have not eaten dog poop either, but I know it would taste bad. No I have not driven a 100k dollar Telsa S, but I know it would be an eeriely quiet affair with no rumbling engine to feel and hear. It would be a put in D and mash the go pedal kind of experience.

I have driven competitive electric go karts and gasoline shifter karts, and hands down the shifter karts are far more alive and involving.

Forgive me for extrapolating that experience to cars. I will allow myself that creative freedom.
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