Welcome to the North American Subaru Impreza Owners Club Friday December 19, 2014
Home Forums WikiNASIOC Products Store Modifications Upgrade Garage
NASIOC
Here you can view your subscribed threads, work with private messages and edit your profile and preferences Home Registration is free! Visit the NASIOC Store NASIOC Rules Search Find other members Frequently Asked Questions Calendar Archive NASIOC Upgrade Garage Logout
Go Back   NASIOC > NASIOC Miscellaneous > Off-Topic

Welcome to NASIOC - The world's largest online community for Subaru enthusiasts!
Welcome to the NASIOC.com Subaru forum.

You are currently viewing our forum as a guest, which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our community, free of charge, you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is free, fast and simple, so please join our community today!

If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us.
* Registered users of the site do not see these ads.
View Poll Results: When do you think the war will start?
By the end of next week (Fri 03/14/03). Moves at the UN will ultimately be a show. 11 15.94%
Week after next starting (Mon 03/17/03) 19 27.54%
Week after that starting (Mon 03/24/03) 15 21.74%
Into next month (Mon 03/31/03) 8 11.59%
Will happen, but not as soon as is suggested by this poll 9 13.04%
No, we will not go to war at all, peace will prevail 7 10.14%
Voters: 69. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-07-2003, 09:22 AM   #1
PhlypSide
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7228
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicagoland
Vehicle:
All Wheels Function
NOTFWD.com

Question When do you think the war will start?

I'm convinced we are going to war. I'm not happy that this is going to happen, but I think at this point it is unavoidable.

lateRZ
* Registered users of the site do not see these ads.
PhlypSide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 09:47 AM   #2
N/A
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 133
Join Date: Aug 1999
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Burlington, WA
Vehicle:
TBA TBA
TBA

Default

Considering that Turkey has basically refused to let us use their country for an attack that means we have to more whatever troops and equipment that we have there now over to Saudi Arabia or Kuwait which will take some time to do. Plus the gov is still calling up reservists and moving more equipment over there. After all they will need enough man power and equipment to not only invade but to occupy Iraq.
N/A is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 10:06 AM   #3
PhlypSide
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7228
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicagoland
Vehicle:
All Wheels Function
NOTFWD.com

Lightbulb Most of our forces are already in position....

...and this is per the media. [Who knows what else is already going on. On this side of a DoD security clearance? Probably no one.]

300,000 US troops in middle east right now. I think this is enough to get the job done, and then some.

Most of them are in Kuwait.

Supposedly, there is a "secretive" base being staged for action in Saudi Arabia (comprised of JSOC and support).

We already have multiple carriers in the area (would a carrier group be out of the question?)

I think the ships that are en route at the moment are for sustainability purposes, we already possess effective first strike capability. All it takes is a phone call, so to speak.

lateRZ
PhlypSide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 10:52 AM   #4
e_a_olson
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7034
Join Date: May 2001
Chapter/Region: NESIC
Location: Newtonville, MA
Vehicle:
2005 Nissan Altima
2.5SL - Black

Default

I vote for whenever the next new moon is. Darkness is the ally of stealth.
e_a_olson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 11:00 AM   #5
LateApex
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7593
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: SCIC
Location: Rosamond, CA
Vehicle:
96 Miata

Default

Those who know, won't tell; and those who would tell, don't know.
LateApex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 11:09 AM   #6
PhlypSide
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7228
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicagoland
Vehicle:
All Wheels Function
NOTFWD.com

Lightbulb There will be alot of nightfighting...

Quote:
Originally posted by e_a_olson
I vote for whenever the next new moon is. Darkness is the ally of stealth.
Our groundtroops are carrying a significant amount of gear, fighting during daylight hours takes away both stealth and stamina. As we move further into March the daytime temps are going to be in the 80s....

I don't think we'll wait for a new moon though, as the press is reporting that Bush is asking for 3-7days maximum, if any, extension for Iraq's compliance.

lateRZ
PhlypSide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 11:37 AM   #7
Retsyn
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 1910
Join Date: Jul 2000
Chapter/Region: NESIC
Vehicle:
2 Left Feet

Default

In point of fact. I suspect that it'll start in the next couple of days or it won't start until the beginning of next month.
Retsyn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 11:48 AM   #8
pnilly
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 26088
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: get that poison
Vehicle:
out of your
system

Default

I think there will be some action by next weekend.
pnilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 12:07 PM   #9
N/A
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 133
Join Date: Aug 1999
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Burlington, WA
Vehicle:
TBA TBA
TBA

Default

Two of my friends left yesterday headed for the middle east. They were given a big 24hrs notice before heading out. Well at least a war would be a plus for Bush considering he's calling up a lot of the reservists which helps out the national unemployment numbers. Its expected to be larger then the 5.9% that they orignally claimed. The official word is supposed to come out today.
N/A is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 01:35 PM   #10
PhlypSide
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7228
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicagoland
Vehicle:
All Wheels Function
NOTFWD.com

Post Ack!

It would appear as of now, that 90% of polled NASIOC folks feel that war is inevitable. Most of us think it's going to go down in the next 2-3 weeks as well.

lateRZ
PhlypSide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 01:45 PM   #11
GQ
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 4830
Join Date: Mar 2001
Chapter/Region: SCIC
Location: San Diego, CA
Vehicle:
12 DucatiSF/Abarth
Red/Nero

Default

"I vote for whenever the next new moon is. Darkness is the ally of stealth."

I agree.
GQ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 02:26 PM   #12
HoRo1
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 15618
Join Date: Feb 2002
Chapter/Region: International
Location: Zhuhai, China
Default

Given that "coalition" air forces are already flying several hundred missions each day, don't you think that the war has already started?
HoRo1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 02:31 PM   #13
impez
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 3622
Join Date: Jan 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicago and beyond
Vehicle:
2002 WRX
Platinum Visa Metallic

Default Re: There will be alot of nightfighting...

Quote:
Originally posted by PhlypSide


Our groundtroops are carrying a significant amount of gear, fighting during daylight hours takes away both stealth and stamina. As we move further into March the daytime temps are going to be in the 80s....

I don't think we'll wait for a new moon though, as the press is reporting that Bush is asking for 3-7days maximum, if any, extension for Iraq's compliance.

lateRZ
I think the rationale for the new moon is to give bombers the best advantage. I figure that we are going to bomb the hell out of them fast and quick, so that ground troops face little resistance and less casualties. I have no idea what is going to happen in Bagdad, if it'll be hand to hand combat or Iraqi troops will give up without much fight. Crossing the desert shouldnt be that difficult.
impez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 02:35 PM   #14
N/A
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 133
Join Date: Aug 1999
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Burlington, WA
Vehicle:
TBA TBA
TBA

Default

Well since the US has intentions of occupying Iraq afterwards they have already said that this time they won't be out to blow up bridges, power plants, water plants and things of that nature. This time we will bomb palaces, military bases, potential military structure and just about anything else. It should be a somewhat easier task this time around since we already have 2/3 the countries air space under our control and have been blowing up radar sites for the last couple weeks.
N/A is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 02:37 PM   #15
imprezton
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 22958
Join Date: Aug 2002
Chapter/Region: SWIC
Location: Las Vegas
Vehicle:
2011 Land Rover LR2
Gray

Default

Quote:
Originally posted by HoRo1
Given that "coalition" air forces are already flying several hundred missions each day, don't you think that the war has already started?
That's an excellent point. Maybe the question could be refined to "When will the war start outside the 'No-Fly Zone' and the deposition of Saddam Hussein commence?."
imprezton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 02:47 PM   #16
YoungWilliams
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 11311
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Default Re: Re: There will be alot of nightfighting...

Quote:
Originally posted by impez
I think the rationale for the new moon is to give bombers the best advantage. I figure that we are going to bomb the hell out of them fast and quick, so that ground troops face little resistance and less casualties. I have no idea what is going to happen in Bagdad, if it'll be hand to hand combat or Iraqi troops will give up without much fight. Crossing the desert shouldnt be that difficult.
If we were going to bomb for a month I'd agree with you. But I think we're only gonna bomb for about 2-3 days before the ground assault begins. And the new moon is much more advantageous for our ground troops than it is for our air campaign, since the Iraqi air force and air defense are pretty much non-existent. However, our ground troops like the dark too, and our night vision capability is much greater than the Iraqi's.

In short, a few nights before the new moon. I say the 25th of March or so...

Cheers,
Grant
YoungWilliams is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2003, 04:29 PM   #17
PhlypSide
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7228
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicagoland
Vehicle:
All Wheels Function
NOTFWD.com

Post After hearing about the UN goings on today...

It would appear likely that action would occur no sooner than Monday 03/17/03 unless either side gets drastic in the meantime and pre-emptively pulls the trigger.

lateRZ
PhlypSide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2003, 07:02 PM   #18
PhlypSide
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7228
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicagoland
Vehicle:
All Wheels Function
NOTFWD.com

Question More UN drama no?

Yep any day now.... unmanned drones... harmless they said.... *grin*

lateRZ
PhlypSide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2003, 07:30 PM   #19
Mike Wevrick
RIP 1/19/64 - 7/23/11
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 24654
Join Date: Sep 2002
Chapter/Region: NESIC
Location: saraseager.com
Vehicle:
1957 Taggart Comet
atlasshruggedpart1.com

Default

Quote:
Originally posted by HoRo1
Given that "coalition" air forces are already flying several hundred missions each day, don't you think that the war has already started?
Agreed; plus don't we already have troops operating inside Iraq? The way I look at it, the war never really ended 12 yrs ago; it's just getting hotter now.

(The situation in Korea is similar; that war is technically still going.)
Mike Wevrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2003, 08:39 PM   #20
N/A
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 133
Join Date: Aug 1999
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Burlington, WA
Vehicle:
TBA TBA
TBA

Default

Yep NK only signed a cease fire agreement. However they are now talking about backing out of the cease fire agreement if the US doesn't give in to certain demands and start shipping them food and oil. Basically extorsion.
N/A is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2003, 11:40 AM   #21
PhlypSide
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7228
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicagoland
Vehicle:
All Wheels Function
NOTFWD.com

Question Given all the advance notice....

....do you think the Iraqis will strike first?

It's not like CNN and Al Jazeera haven't been blabbing all our plans (not to mention the impossible task of trying to covertly move 250,000 troops, hardware, and supplies) all along anyhow.

However I suspect that as tensions build it is a very real possibility that someone will pull a blitzkrieg here.

Did you guys read some of the "benchmarks" reputedly proposed by the next (and most likely final) UN Resolution on this situation? They basically require Saddam to admit he's been lying and to turn over the weapons he's been lying about.

I bet he won't agree to save face (and to try and play off of the international sympathy).

lateRZ
PhlypSide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2003, 01:02 PM   #22
impez
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 3622
Join Date: Jan 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicago and beyond
Vehicle:
2002 WRX
Platinum Visa Metallic

Default Re: Given all the advance notice....

Quote:
Originally posted by PhlypSide
....do you think the Iraqis will strike first?

It's not like CNN and Al Jazeera haven't been blabbing all our plans (not to mention the impossible task of trying to covertly move 250,000 troops, hardware, and supplies) all along anyhow.

However I suspect that as tensions build it is a very real possibility that someone will pull a blitzkrieg here.

Did you guys read some of the "benchmarks" reputedly proposed by the next (and most likely final) UN Resolution on this situation? They basically require Saddam to admit he's been lying and to turn over the weapons he's been lying about.

I bet he won't agree to save face (and to try and play off of the international sympathy).

lateRZ
If Iraq attacked first, they would lose international sympathy and give the US reason to go ahead and invade, both things Saddam would desperately like to avoid. He isn't that stupid or crazy.
impez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2003, 06:08 AM   #23
hotrod
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 14141
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: 13.239@102.85 @ 5800 ft on 13T
Vehicle:
2002 Impreza WRX

Default slightly before the new moon

http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/vphase.html

http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneYear.html
MIDDLE EAST
KWI KUWAIT, KUWAIT 29 20 N 48 00 E
RUH RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA 24 39 N 46 46 E
BGW BAGHDAD, IRAQ 33 20 N 44 26 E


Time zone for Iraq is +3 east of Greenwich, or 8 hours earlier the previous day eastern standard time.

Baghdad
--- March
--- Moon
--- Rise -- Set
20 0142 1332
21 0253 1408
22 0405 1447
23 0517 1532
24 0626 1623
25 0730 1720
26 0826 1821
27 0914 1923
28 0955 2025
29 1030 2125
30 1101 2223

First militarily useful new moon would be the morning of the 20th or 21st For covert insertions etc. and for an open air offensive the 22nd to 23rd.

If they in fact use the "shock and awe" strategy they will try to achieve "time on target" bombings. Meaning they will adjust flight times of both cruise missles and aircraft bombings so they arrive on target as close to simultanously as possible. This would saturate any remaining triple A capability and maximise the disruption of the attack.

My bet is the morning of the 21st, which would be about 7:00 pm eastern time the 20th here in the US.

Total darkness is essential for the first waves of stealth aircraft to preserve their stealth. Overcast conditions could move these dates a couple each way depending on the altitude of the cloud deck.

Ground troops will be able to do short duration ground ops a couple days earlier if they can lay low somewhere following moon rise.

The opening moments of the US air strikes for the first Gulf war occured about 6:00-7:00 pm Eastern standard time here in the US.

Larry
hotrod is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2003, 10:58 AM   #24
PhlypSide
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 7228
Join Date: Jun 2001
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Chicagoland
Vehicle:
All Wheels Function
NOTFWD.com

Talking hotrod: wow

With the first ever *known* forward deployment of F117 Stealths, I'd have to agree that darkness is key to their most effective use.

I will be spooked if your prediction is right on.

lateRZ
PhlypSide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2003, 11:28 AM   #25
obyone
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 16523
Join Date: Mar 2002
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: Does anyone even read
Vehicle:
this anymore???

Default

My brother told me that he doesn't have much more time to be sending Emails and letters back home. He said all there have an erie feeling that the war is closer than everyone expects.

(he's currently in Kuwait.....active duty)
obyone is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
when do you think the ps3 will have a price drop? Eyeflyistheeye Off-Topic 9 02-21-2008 01:39 AM
How much do you think the 978 will go for? mvstype Southern California Impreza Club Forum -- SCIC 7 11-19-2004 03:42 AM
do you think the STI will be around for a good number of years? MaxPower STi Forum Archive 9 07-10-2003 01:36 AM
What do you think the STI will be called if it comes here? DoctorNick Mid West Subaru Owners Club Forum -- MWSOC 25 09-18-2002 03:56 AM
Do you think the dealer will replace it for free? V6 Interior & Exterior Modification 7 12-21-2000 04:01 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:58 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Powered by Searchlight © 2014 Axivo Inc.
Copyright ©1999 - 2014, North American Subaru Impreza Owners Club, Inc.