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Old 03-10-2013, 07:52 PM   #156
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Chapter/Region: RMIC
'07 Land Cruiser
'12 RAV4 EV


Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
I just got a call from a dealer saying that Toyota increased incentives on the RAV4 EV effective today. This implies that sales are flagging.
Since I wrote the above in December sales have continued to be awful. How awful? Try 52 in December and 77 in January. This is good news for prospective buyers, though, as the incentives are now ridiculously good. How good?

This, along with the release of the new-gen no-V6 RAV4 non-EV, means that I should update my back of napkin calculations below. Updated assumptions based on a vehicle and buyer based in Seattle:

- Average gas price of $4/gallon, average electricity price of $0.10/kWh
- 12k miles/year
- Both vehicles financed for 60 months via Toyota Financial, @ 0% via the incentive above for the EV, @ 1.9% for the gas model
- Feature-matched comparison vehicle of an AWD RAV4 Limited with Softex, navi, and Entune, but no JBL or blind spot monitor. I'd pick FWD but it's not released yet and wouldn't materially change the analysis. It gets 25 mpg combined and costs $29.4k before destination as described.
- EV model with an MSRP of $49.8k before destination but with all manner of incentives as above, which uses 0.44 kWh/mile per
- An EV buyer with an adjusted gross income sufficient to qualify for the full $7,500 Federal tax credit, and who lives in Seattle, where EVs are exempt from the 9.1% (iirc) sales/use tax on new vehicles
- EVSE cost pegged at $1,500 installed since The EV Project is ramping down and no longer offering free EVSE to Seattleites. Note that there's an EVSE tax credit that I'll ignore for these purposes since $1,500 is a nice, round number.
- Charger efficiency of 85%
Gas price formula per year: 12,000 miles * $X/gal / 25 mpg, which works out to $1,920 per year for X = 4.00.
Electricity price formula: 12,000 miles * $Y/kWh * 0.44 kWh/mile / 85% charging efficiency, which works out to $621 for Y = 0.10.
Therefore, the net running cost savings per year are $1,299 in favor of the EV, ignoring oil changes.

Net purchase price difference = ($49.8k MSRP + $0 sales/use tax and interest + $1,500 EVSE cost - $10,000 incentive cash - $7,500 tax credit) - ($29.4k MSRP * 1.091 sales/use tax + $2,793 interest over 60 months @ 1.9%) = - $1,068. That's right: After accounting for interest the EV is cheaper outright without accounting for running costs.

If we divide the interest evenly (which isn't quite true, as it's paid up front, iirc) over 5 years and factor in running costs, then we find the breakeven point comes at about 6 months, if I did the arithmetic correctly. In reality, it wouldn't be until the end of the year when one would file with the tax credit, but then again one could account for this and decrease withholdings appropriately, etc.

In any case, payoff is now within a year with the gasser @ 1.9%, and before 3 years if one landed 0% financing for the gas model.

(What's missing from the above is that the RAV4 EV's electrical bits are only serviceable at 50 authorized dealers, all of which are in California. Someone like me who would operate one in Seattle would be making a gamble on this basis, but at least wouldn't be paying for the privilege of doing so.)
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