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Old 12-29-2021, 04:23 PM   #44
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Join Date: Nov 2004

Originally Posted by arghx7 View Post
The last 20 years had very little inflation above the normal 1.5 to 2.5% range except for when oil prices were high before the 2008 crash.

New cars aren't direct substitutes for used cars. Just like new houses aren't substitutes for existing home stock. Of course that's not a 100% black or white statement, there is some gray area, but it's a different market. Look at the average prices for a new passenger vehicle: mid 40s now. Average price for used vehicle: high 20s. Do you really think the automakers are going to flood the market with more affordable cars like GM made discounted Cobalts 15 years ago? No way. It will take years for natural new car depreciation to refresh the stock of 2-5 year old used cars.

A "correction" to the used market? Sure. I just think people people are getting their hopes up as to what that means. It doesn't mean car prices overall drop like housing prices did from the foreclosure crisis, unless there's a big time recession caused by high interest rates like in the early 1980s. There may be some segments that drop though.

It's like when my cousin's house was sold in 2017 with the intention to buy after the next bubble burst. 5 years later, it still hasn't burst, and if it does, would it really be better than just biting the bullet and buying.
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