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Old 03-05-2019, 11:31 AM   #1826
Masterauto
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The only EV with a resale now heading down. Might get as bad as my Alfa Giulia resale
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forum...overnight-ouch



Had been considering an upgrade to a 100 Model S or X. Checked a couple of months ago and the trade-in offer for my 2015 P90D was $78,000+ from Tesla. As it was below the current payoff I chose to hold off.

Figured with the drastic price reduction recently for the Performance models, I'd explore it again, expecting a new offer to be maybe 2% less than the old one. Car is less than two years old, doesn't need tires (still have the original tires & wheels in brand new condition sitting in the garage) and not a scratch on the car. Had an original price of over $130,000. Car has 25,000 miles and they came back with a new trade-in offer of $63,200. $15,000 (19%) lost in two months, wow! Over 50% loss in less than 2 years, bigger ouch! That's less than Tesla's price guarantee of 50% after 3 years, but you can't take them up on that deal until close to the 3 year mark. Good news is, I can't lose anymore on the car. Their trade-in price offer is well below the residual value in my lease contract, so keeping it for the next year and a month, I'll actually gain significantly if I just turn it in after 3 years. This coincides with the price reduction for new cars so I guess it makes sense. Sucks for existing owners though to have the value of their cars plummet so quickly. So much for Tesla's holding their value better than most cars. I love my car and would have upgraded only as a luxury. Fortunately I have no problem keeping it for another year.

Assuming this will have an impact on the resale market as well. Had seen cars similar to mine priced recently in the $90,000 range, but now am assuming those prices will be hard to get. Either that, or Tesla just expects to make $25,000+ on trade-ins. With my 2013, I remember them saying it was something close to an 8% difference (Trade-in offer versus what they will sell it for) when I got rid of my first Tesla. Tesla has a history of getting people to upgrade from older Model S cars to newer ones. While the new pricing should assist in bringing new buyers into the Tesla family, likely will hurt existing owners that would have otherwise upgraded early. Good for Tesla, not so good for existing owners. I haven't looked lately, does Tesla even still offer the 3 year price guarantee? While I've never doubted leasing my car instead of buying it (my belief at the time being that with as fast as Tesla changes these cars and pricing, with no meaningful model years, that it was impossible to determine what the value would be in 2, 3 or 5 years), but now I'm even happier that I chose to lease it. Now it will be the banks problem rather than mine when the time comes. US Bank does have a history of offering to sell you the car at the end of a lease for significantly less than the Residual Value. Didn't know if that would hold true on the Tesla being that previously, resale values held up pretty well, but with the new pricing for new cars, that will likely be the case. Will consider purchasing the car if their offer is right. My last lease with them, they offered me a sale price at 45% below the residual value on that car. Don't expect it to be that low for the Tesla, but if they come back at $50,000 or so, for a 3 year old car with around 36,000 miles on it, would be hard to pass up. Based on their past history, that's not unreasonable to expect. Was going to get a Model 3, but looks like the one I want it won't be available until late 2018 and it will be well over $50,000, so keeping what I have for the same price would be pretty attractive. Add in the $10,000 rebates, $20,000+ price reduction from the residual value and my $130,000+ car ends up being $100,000 instead. Certainly better than if I had bought it brand new for $130,000 instead of leased it.
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Old 03-05-2019, 08:45 PM   #1827
gathermewool
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Masterauto:

How much will you have paid out during your lease term?
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Old 03-05-2019, 09:07 PM   #1828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterauto View Post
The only EV with a resale now heading down. Might get as bad as my Alfa Giulia resale
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forum...overnight-ouch



Had been considering an upgrade to a 100 Model S or X. Checked a couple of months ago and the trade-in offer for my 2015 P90D was $78,000+ from Tesla. As it was below the current payoff I chose to hold off.

Figured with the drastic price reduction recently for the Performance models, I'd explore it again, expecting a new offer to be maybe 2% less than the old one. Car is less than two years old, doesn't need tires (still have the original tires & wheels in brand new condition sitting in the garage) and not a scratch on the car. Had an original price of over $130,000. Car has 25,000 miles and they came back with a new trade-in offer of $63,200. $15,000 (19%) lost in two months, wow! Over 50% loss in less than 2 years, bigger ouch! That's less than Tesla's price guarantee of 50% after 3 years, but you can't take them up on that deal until close to the 3 year mark. Good news is, I can't lose anymore on the car. Their trade-in price offer is well below the residual value in my lease contract, so keeping it for the next year and a month, I'll actually gain significantly if I just turn it in after 3 years. This coincides with the price reduction for new cars so I guess it makes sense. Sucks for existing owners though to have the value of their cars plummet so quickly. So much for Tesla's holding their value better than most cars. I love my car and would have upgraded only as a luxury. Fortunately I have no problem keeping it for another year.

Assuming this will have an impact on the resale market as well. Had seen cars similar to mine priced recently in the $90,000 range, but now am assuming those prices will be hard to get. Either that, or Tesla just expects to make $25,000+ on trade-ins. With my 2013, I remember them saying it was something close to an 8% difference (Trade-in offer versus what they will sell it for) when I got rid of my first Tesla. Tesla has a history of getting people to upgrade from older Model S cars to newer ones. While the new pricing should assist in bringing new buyers into the Tesla family, likely will hurt existing owners that would have otherwise upgraded early. Good for Tesla, not so good for existing owners. I haven't looked lately, does Tesla even still offer the 3 year price guarantee? While I've never doubted leasing my car instead of buying it (my belief at the time being that with as fast as Tesla changes these cars and pricing, with no meaningful model years, that it was impossible to determine what the value would be in 2, 3 or 5 years), but now I'm even happier that I chose to lease it. Now it will be the banks problem rather than mine when the time comes. US Bank does have a history of offering to sell you the car at the end of a lease for significantly less than the Residual Value. Didn't know if that would hold true on the Tesla being that previously, resale values held up pretty well, but with the new pricing for new cars, that will likely be the case. Will consider purchasing the car if their offer is right. My last lease with them, they offered me a sale price at 45% below the residual value on that car. Don't expect it to be that low for the Tesla, but if they come back at $50,000 or so, for a 3 year old car with around 36,000 miles on it, would be hard to pass up. Based on their past history, that's not unreasonable to expect. Was going to get a Model 3, but looks like the one I want it won't be available until late 2018 and it will be well over $50,000, so keeping what I have for the same price would be pretty attractive. Add in the $10,000 rebates, $20,000+ price reduction from the residual value and my $130,000+ car ends up being $100,000 instead. Certainly better than if I had bought it brand new for $130,000 instead of leased it.
Hold on a second, I get the point of the article but this guy is a god damn moron. He leased the car, he knew the residual at the end of the lease. Trying to end a lease contract early usually carries a penalty. So whatís this dudes gripe? That Tesla will give a low trade in value and sell for a nice return?

The dude sounds like a dumb **** cry baby bitch. Unless Iím missing something, dumb article is dumb.
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Old 03-05-2019, 09:27 PM   #1829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
Hold on a second, I get the point of the article but this guy is a god damn moron. He leased the car, he knew the residual at the end of the lease. Trying to end a lease contract early usually carries a penalty. So what’s this dudes gripe? That Tesla will give a low trade in value and sell for a nice return?

The dude sounds like a dumb **** cry baby bitch. Unless I’m missing something, dumb article is dumb.
ive never ran a lease to the end and returned it. ive traded them all in early. every one was worth the same or more than the buyout at the time. i think his point was that the depreciation typically is in line with the current buyout so you arent usually stuck with a lease until the end. either way, he didnt have much to bitch about since his residual is set so it wont hurt him.
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Old 03-07-2019, 04:52 PM   #1830
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Possible Tesla light duty Truck sighting

http://www.thedrive.com/news/26830/l...ks-speculation
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Old 03-07-2019, 09:31 PM   #1831
godfather2112
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Last photo looks to have exhaust pipes.
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:19 AM   #1832
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Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
Last photo looks to have exhaust pipes.


Commenters on electrek pegged it as a Roush F-150.
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Old 03-25-2019, 08:45 AM   #1833
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Default Time to buy or sell stock ?

‪TSLA Tesla �� lowers price, raises price, opens stores, closes stores, reads leases and stays open ���� wish he had dealers ������
https://youtu.be/gfwvjMHSzPE‬

Last edited by brainfreeze; 03-26-2019 at 11:32 AM.
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Old 03-30-2019, 11:18 AM   #1834
Masterauto
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Alex is one of the best auto reviewers on Youtube so subscribe. He goes over all the positives of Tesla and alternate fuels like Hydrogen so give a listen
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Old 04-15-2019, 02:03 AM   #1835
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Quote:
Tesla announces open-ended price increase of 'Full Self Driving' feature

Turns out that autonomous driving, like everything else Tesla, won't be cheap
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/04/14/...021&yptr=yahoo

Quote:
First Tesla had to figure out how to profitably manufacture a mass-market car. Now, as might be expected, Tesla's still working out how to profitably price a mass-market car. For the fourth time in six weeks the EV trendsetter has announced a change in the price of its self-driving features. This time, the carmaker effectively announced open-ended price increases. CEO Elon Musk tweeted Saturday, April 13, "Please note that the price of the Tesla Full Self-Driving option will increase substantially over time." The first price bump comes May 1.

Full Self-Driving (FSD) is Tesla's autonomy step beyond Autopilot. Autopilot is auto steer and traffic-aware cruise control; the system once included auto lane change, auto park, summon, and navigate on autopilot, but those four functions were moved to FSD. Because they're both software features that can be added after purchase, Autopilot had cost either $3,000 or $4,000 depending on when it was ordered. FSD, which requires Autopilot, costs $5,000 more.

On March 2, Tesla announced a 50-percent drop in price for Model 3, S, and X owners who wanted to add Autopilot after taking delivery of their cars. The option would cost $2,000, but only for those who bought cars on or before February 28, the day before Tesla announced a reduced price on the Model 3.

Then, on March 12, Musk tweeted, "In retrospect, the lower price shouldn't have been offered. Was done so because some simply couldn't afford it. Prices revert to normal on Monday." To help Tesla owners and buyers figure out which option cost what, and when, Clean Technica linked to a flow chart from @TroyTeslike's Twitter feed that looked like a set of SpaceX "If/Then" mission instructions.

On April 11, Tesla made Autopilot standard for some models and trims, just before it rejigged the price and ordering options for the Model 3. Including Autopilot raised the car prices, but it was still about $500 less than ordering Autopilot separately. People ordering those Teslas with Autopilot included only need to pay $5,000 for FSD, should they want it.

If you're still with us, it now appears Musk is trying to get ahead of future rollouts of increasingly robust autonomous driving capability. Tesla has developed a chip called Hardware 3 that can out-work the Nvidia chips Tesla uses now, and that will be able to handle the processing needs for eventual full autonomy. Said to be in the FSD pipeline for sometime this year are traffic light and stop sign recognition, and autonomous driving in urban environments. The carmaker will show off its latest tech on April 22, a so-called Autonomy Day for investors.

About a week later, FSD will cost more than the current $5,000. When someone sent a tweet asking "something like +$3,000?" regarding the price increase, Musk responded, "Something like that." And that means a hypothetical $8,000 option that will get "substantially" more expensive over time. We get the feeling we haven't heard the last of this, even before the May 1 adjustment.
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:54 AM   #1836
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The key line from that quoted article is "The carmaker will show off its latest tech on April 22, a so-called Autonomy Day for investors."

If what they show is weak sauce then their price hike/revenue scramble won't fly. If it is awesome then it'll make sense.

/me already bought EAP initially for $5k and added FSD for $2k while it was briefly on sale in the price-change madness.
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Old 04-15-2019, 12:21 PM   #1837
Masterauto
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Competition coming big time from over 40 EV manufactures China. If no trade restriction Asia never minds dumping product to keep the assembly lines running. This will be great for consumers and tough on makers globally. Will do nothing for clean air.
https://www.autonews.com/china/china...-risk-bursting

China's $18 billion EV bubble at risk of bursting
TIAN YING
Bloomberg

BLOOMBERG

A Nio EP9 electric sports car, seen on display at the Nio House showroom in Shanghai.

BEIJING — An iPhone assembler, e-commerce emporium and real-estate developer typically don't compete in the same business — except when it comes to electric vehicles in China.

That's because of a seismic shift toward EVs, which has spurred billions of dollars in investments by traditional carmakers, startups and titans of the Internet, electronics and real-estate industries. The rush is on even as the government pulls back on the subsidies that juiced the industry to begin with.

There are now 486 EV manufacturers registered in China, more than triple the number from two years ago. While sales of passenger EVs are projected to reach a record 1.6 million units this year, that's likely not enough to keep all those assembly lines humming, prompting warnings that the ballooning EV market could burst and leave behind only a few survivors.

"We are going to see great waves sweeping away sand in the EV industry,'' said Thomas Fang, a partner and strategy consultant at Roland Berger in Shanghai. "It is a critical moment that will decide life or death for EV startups.''

At least two dozen of those electric-car brands will be showcasing models at the Shanghai auto show starting this week. They range in expertise from nascent supercar maker Qiantu Motor to U.S.-traded startup Nio Inc. and elder statesman BYD Co.

Dozens of startups have entered the global EV business in recent years, raising $18 billion since 2011, according to BloombergNEF. Most of the biggest fundraisers are Chinese, including NIO, WM Motor, Xpeng Motors and Youxia Motors.

The startups promise to deliver a collective manufacturing capacity of 3.9 million vehicles a year. That's excluding what some of the world's biggest automakers are planning.
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China's big, but it's not that big. Annual sales of passenger EVs only surpassed 1 million units for the first time last year, according to BNEF, spurred by the subsidies that could slice thousands of dollars off the sticker price.

Yet EV sales make up just 4 percent of overall passenger vehicle sales of 23.7 million units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

At the same time, sales of traditional cars are currently in a free fall, plunging for the 10th straight month in March as a slowing economy and trade tensions with the U.S. weigh on consumer sentiment.

"There is still huge room out there in the new-energy vehicle market with China's relatively low vehicle-penetration rate,'' said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, an industry group. "Yet that market is for the competitive players, not the weakest ones, and the latter will be squeezed out.''

The government started pushing development of electric cars to help eliminate air pollution, reduce oil imports and develop high-technology manufacturing.

By 2025, China's leaders want annual sales of new-energy vehicles — including pure-battery electrics, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell cars — to reach 7 million units. That's the equivalent of about 20 percent of China's total auto market.

Even that amount would barely be enough to sustain a few dozen companies — not hundreds. A factory typically needs to produce at least tens of thousands of vehicles a year to be profitable.

Another headwind is the subsidy cut announced last month by the finance ministry, a move meant to encourage manufacturers to rely on innovation rather than assistance. Some subsidies that could total $7,500 per vehicle were halved.

"With the subsidy adjustments, some less technologically advanced EV startups will disappear,'' said Zhou Lei, a Tokyo-based partner for Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting. "There will be a reshuffle.''

Then there's the swarm of global giants from Tesla Inc. to Volkswagen AG to Ford Motor Co., all planning to flood the market with locally produced EVs.

Elon Musk's company started selling its first mass-market model in China this year and plans to begin building vehicles in Shanghai by year's end. Tesla sold 14,467 vehicles in China last year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Toyota Motor Corp., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Honda Motor Co. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. chose a quicker way in: They all plan to sell what's essentially the same car, developed by Guangzhou Automobile Group.

More established local manufacturers, such as BYD, likely can withstand the competition and the subsidy cuts, given a track record spanning years, a lineup including cars and buses, and an existing customer base.

The Warren Buffett-backed company has boosted revenue for six straight years and turned a profit since at least 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

"Only companies that have solid technology reserves can stand out amid competition,'' said Wang Chuanfu, founder and chairman of BYD. "By owning core technologies, we can see further and deeper.''

The ones facing the biggest risk are the upstarts still seeking their footing. Many are founded or funded by people with an internet or technology background, used to hefty cash-burn rates but still not necessarily fully aware of the massive investment needed for car manufacturing, Roland Berger's Fang said.

The noncar companies spending heavily on EVs include Foxconn Technology Group, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and China Evergrande Group. Evergrande, better known for real estate development, has proclaimed it will become the world's biggest EV maker in three to five years.

"The investment needed for actual production is several times of that they've spent on marketing and production development,'' Fang said. "That's why we are seeing some of them delaying mass-production plans.''

Faraday Future, which has its headquarters and production facility in California, has yet to start building its first model.

Byton, led by former BMW AG managers, said last month it's seeking $700 million in backing after already raising $500 million earlier this year, with a view to start manufacturing late this year.

Startups need to secure their funding within the next year or risk being wiped out, said Li Xiang, founder and chief executive officer of the Chehejia brand. After that, no investor will commit to a new contender while even the leading startups struggle to earn a profit.

Li, among the first to own Tesla's Model S in China, started his Beijing-based company after successfully launching car-buying portal Autohome Inc., which trades in the U.S. and has a market capitalization exceeding $12 billion.

Chehejia — which recruited talent from Daimler AG, Toyota and BMW — plans to start deliveries in the fourth quarter, after initially aiming for 2017.

"A large amount of companies will be eliminated in a year, and 90 percent of the investors will suffer great losses,'' Li said.
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