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Old 08-13-2019, 06:50 AM   #1
AVANTI R5
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Default Why GM Will Focus On Pure Electric Vehicles Instead Of Hybrids

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General Motors‘ decision to kill off the Chevrolet Volt was indicative of a long-term strategy that will see the automaker focus on pure electric vehicles instead of hybrids.
Company president Mark Reuss explained the automaker’s decision cease making hybrids in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, telling the newspaper that it would rather channel its green vehicle investments into EVs, as it believes they will eventually take over.
“If I had a dollar more to invest, would I spend it on a hybrid? Or would I spend it on the answer that we all know is going to happen, and get there faster and better than anybody else?” Reuss said.

WSJ notes that this strategy is a departure from other major industry players such as Toyota and Ford. Toyota sees hybrids as crucial to lowering green house gas emissions, as they are cheaper than EVs and thus carry a cheaper purchasing price and can be sold in greater numbers.
Ford, meanwhile, plans to invest heavily in EVs, but is also planning certain hybrid models, like the upcoming F-150 Hybrid. A Ford engineer explained the company doesn’t want buyers who desire a green vehicle to be forced into an EV, which are still more expensive than hybrids and have limited range.

GM isn’t the only automaker that sees hybrids as an unnesscary stop-gap between ICE and EV. WSJ also spoke to VW for its report, which echoed a similar sentiment to GM: if EV market share grows as it is expected to, why continue to invest in a stop-gap technologies like hybrids and plug-ins?
“Our strong preference is to go all-in where the market is heading, as opposed to hybrids as a way to hedge our bets,” Volkswagen America CEO Scott Keogh said.

Time will tell which automakers get this strategy right and which get it wrong. The winning strategy may depend on how quickly automakers like GM and VW can bring affordable yet profitable EVs to market with usable range. If EVs don’t end up accounting for a large chunk business, they may be forced to employ more hybrids in order to meet the 2025 government emissions regulations.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-volk...es-11565602200
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Old 08-13-2019, 09:59 AM   #2
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I think a lot of this depends on what level of regulation of the internal combustion engine we will see.

There is a belief out there, now bordering on a religion, that the internal combustion engine is inherently dirty and/or evil, and that using any form of combustion (even natural gas furnaces) is hurting the planet. If that takes off, you get real momentum behind internal combustion engine bans, and hybrids are dead.

I have a Tesla but I also have a Challenger (I'm not an Eco zealot, just like Teslas) and you should see some of the stuff posted on Tesla subreddit or Tesla forums. There are people who are disgusted by hybrids. They think it is a coward's way of addressing climate change, etc. If enough people get that sentiment, it won't matter whether hybrids make actual sense or not. It's becoming ideological.

If the regulations end up being written as well-to-wheel , then hybrids make sense. If they are written as tail pipe CO2 + full BEV mandate, hybrids won't last long. They will end up like steam ships that still had sails.

Last edited by arghx7; 08-13-2019 at 11:32 AM. Reason: natural gas furnaces
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Old 08-13-2019, 10:43 AM   #3
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I think a lot of this depends on what level of regulation of the internal combustion engine we will see.

There is a belief out there, now bordering on a religion, that the internal combustion engine is inherently dirty and/or evil, and that using any form of combustion (even natural furnaces) is hurting the planet. If that takes off, you get real momentum behind internal combustion engine bans, and hybrids are dead.

I have a Tesla but I also have a Challenger (I'm not an Eco zealot, just like Teslas) and you should see some of the stuff posted on Tesla subreddit or Tesla forums. There are people who are disgusted by hybrids. They think it is a coward's way of addressing climate change, etc. If enough people get that sentiment, it won't matter whether hybrids make actual sense or not. It's becoming ideological.

If the regulations end up being written as well-to-wheel , then hybrids make sense. If they are written as tail pipe CO2 + full BEV mandate, hybrids won't last long. They will end up like steam ships that still had sails.
Same, but in the minor leagues with a Leaf/RS combo. They better not pull any bs like "You must take your gasser off the road". Grandfathered in, and I will be able to deal but I won't agree with it. If a good chunk of automobile offerings are EV, they need to just chill out. Moderate levels of this instead of extremism.
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Old 08-13-2019, 11:03 AM   #4
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The prius was a good stepping stone. But it's done. Tesla came in and moved the bar.

There are too many advantages to pure EV for a hybrid to make any sort of financial sense for a consumer. If you're willing to go hybrid, you might as well go EV.

I think I see one spot where hybrid could still come in to play, and that's with road trip cars. Things like minivans, where you're going to drive from NY to Disney World, or Seattle to LA, and the EV doesn't work. You "need" that gas backup. However, those could be fleet cars that people rent.
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Old 08-13-2019, 11:34 AM   #5
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One thing that is absolutely clear to me is that hydrogen/hydrogen fuel cells are not going anywhere.
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Old 08-13-2019, 11:42 AM   #6
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There are also people who believe the government controls the weather and started the wildfires that burned Cali. I believe that what people believe is purely ****. If you have a belief, it means you need to visit the potty. Belief relief.
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Old 08-13-2019, 01:08 PM   #7
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The prius was a good stepping stone. But it's done. Tesla came in and moved the bar.

There are too many advantages to pure EV for a hybrid to make any sort of financial sense for a consumer. If you're willing to go hybrid, you might as well go EV.

I think I see one spot where hybrid could still come in to play, and that's with road trip cars. Things like minivans, where you're going to drive from NY to Disney World, or Seattle to LA, and the EV doesn't work. You "need" that gas backup. However, those could be fleet cars that people rent.
Even that use-case is slowly going electric too. There's a video of a guy that drove from New Jersey to Florida straight through in a Tesla. I think it worked out to ~10 minutes of charging for every hour of driving. So after 3 hours (when the kids need a long break anyways), you stop and charge for half an hour. You're not charging to "full" either; just enough to get to the next supercharger with some head room.
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:22 AM   #8
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There are also people who believe the government controls the weather and started the wildfires that burned Cali. I believe that what people believe is purely ****. If you have a belief, it means you need to visit the potty. Belief relief.
Guess I was just tripping during operation Popeye In Nam..HAARP another figment of my imagination
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:50 AM   #9
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The prius was a good stepping stone. But it's done. Tesla came in and moved the bar.

There are too many advantages to pure EV for a hybrid to make any sort of financial sense for a consumer. If you're willing to go hybrid, you might as well go EV.

I think I see one spot where hybrid could still come in to play, and that's with road trip cars. Things like minivans, where you're going to drive from NY to Disney World, or Seattle to LA, and the EV doesn't work. You "need" that gas backup. However, those could be fleet cars that people rent.
You’re also forgetting one variable, acquisition cost. What does a base model Prius go for? $20k or so? Yes, I know long term costs can be greater than an EV but most can only focus on immediate cost.

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Even that use-case is slowly going electric too. There's a video of a guy that drove from New Jersey to Florida straight through in a Tesla. I think it worked out to ~10 minutes of charging for every hour of driving. So after 3 hours (when the kids need a long break anyways), you stop and charge for half an hour. You're not charging to "full" either; just enough to get to the next supercharger with some head room.
Still a nuisance and inefficient for most people. Not too many people are wanting to add another hour + to their road trip.

I fully agree EV is the future. Full conversion away from new ICE sales is still going to take a long time.
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Old 08-14-2019, 09:06 AM   #10
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You’re also forgetting one variable, acquisition cost. What does a base model Prius go for? $20k or so? Yes, I know long term costs can be greater than an EV but most can only focus on immediate cost.

Still a nuisance and inefficient for most people. Not too many people are wanting to add another hour + to their road trip.

I fully agree EV is the future. Full conversion away from new ICE sales is still going to take a long time.
Prius starts at 24k, but that's in line with a Camry. A Corolla starts at 20k.
The problem with every other hybrid out there, is that they are not a Prius; there is a perception about the Prius where if you want a hybrid, you just buy a Prius.

I agree that the jump to a BEV is huge - 30k for a 150mile range base leaf or 36k for a 226mile leaf, and whatever tesla is charging for the "base" model 3 now (changes daily, can't keep up), and arguably they are the Prius of the BEV, by that I mean when people think BEV Tesla comes to mind.

For cross country road trips, yeah it would be rough, but for a >six hour/400mile drive, a 30 minute stop to add range somewhere in the middle wouldn't be bad, assuming there is a spot to top off that is; which really goes back to infrastructure being needed. Model 3 LR has "310" miles of range, take away 20 percent for battery longevity (10 at the bottom 10 at the top), a stop is required in the 225-250 mile mark after roughly 3hrs of driving (longer if you're in traffic and everyone in the car has synchronized their iron bladders).

I regularly take a 230 mile trip to sticks New Hampshire, it's a 4-6hr journey depending on traffic, I always stop at least once for a meal, and at least once more for a pee break/getting supplies we forgot to pack. The only reason a BEV wouldn't work for me is the lack of charging network along my route that coincides with a place to eat and isn't "for patrons only" at a hotel.

I could arguably go to a high state of charge and make it there with a little juice to spare (mostly highway, 70mph speed limit so a BEV is going to be less efficient), but there isn't a charge port at the destination, so I'd either have to pay for one to be installed (private residence) or charge on 110 and never move my car while there (laundry is on the opposite side of the building, and a car isn't making it over there).

My other regular long trip duration is 188miles, which would be less of an issue, but again, no charger at the end of the trip, and no chargers in the area that aren't for patrons of select hotels.

Then it's a 55 mile trip I make quarterly for work, again, nothing on the way and nothing at the end destination, but I could make that round trip safely with the 40kW or 62kW leaf or standard range model 3.

Kinda wish my wife was okay with an EV (mainly the lack of a third pedal) because we'd have a leaf by now.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:40 AM   #11
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Makes sense if there are more BEV's and they can push more research and infrastructure to support it then that is the way to go.

What are the costs long term for a BEV or PHEV? What happens if you keep the vehicle for 15 years? For a gas car it isn't a big issue as long as you maintain it properly. For a BEV wouldn't you need to change the battery at some point? Seems like that would be a huge cost and force you to buy another.

We are handing down my wife's Honda to my son and my brother in law is doing the same for his son and his Honda. Both are 10-15 years old.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:47 AM   #12
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Guess I was just tripping during operation Popeye In Nam..HAARP another figment of my imagination
Cloud seeding is clown seeding.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:14 PM   #13
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Makes sense if there are more BEV's and they can push more research and infrastructure to support it then that is the way to go.

What are the costs long term for a BEV or PHEV? What happens if you keep the vehicle for 15 years? For a gas car it isn't a big issue as long as you maintain it properly. For a BEV wouldn't you need to change the battery at some point? Seems like that would be a huge cost and force you to buy another.

We are handing down my wife's Honda to my son and my brother in law is doing the same for his son and his Honda. Both are 10-15 years old.
Costs for keeping a gas car for 15 years vary significantly by vehicle, as do keeping bev's for 15 years.

A leaf replacement pack is about $6,200 all in for replacement. Battery degradation is what typically dictates a battery replacement.

Tesla claims a model 3 pack replacement will cost between "5k and 7k and would last 300k-500k miles or 1,500 cycles". Again though, it's about degradation and how it relates to your use case.

The biggest costs for keeping an ICE car for 15 years are the engine and trans/transaxle, it also depends on what vehicle you buy though; for example Subaru headgaskets = about 100k miles, and you're pulling the engine to do them.

DI related valve cleaning is a thing too, but a minor one.

Suspension wears out regardless of what turns the wheels.

Regular maintenance items are reduces significantly when you compare a BEV to an ICE vehicle; oil & filter, engine air filter, brakes etc.

I suggest you hit google, and/or build a spreadsheet; the data will continue to be fuzzy until there are more high mileage BEVs out there.

All of that stated, I personally don't like to keep a vehicle past 10 years, I'm doing it now, but I'm not particularly happy about it - stuff breaks with more frequency, and the vehicles residual value diminishes to the point where a big repair can cost more than it's worth.

The other factor to consider is safety, there is a reason why teen drivers are more expensive to insure, and it's because they get in accidents more frequently. Eleven to twelve years from now when my son is driving, I'm not sure I'll want him in an older car, I'm more likely to pick up a slightly used corolla/civic or camry/accord equivalent; something where parts are plentiful and cheap that has a modern chassis that can protect his dumba** when he runs it into a tree on a dirt backroad at nearly double the speed limit.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:43 PM   #14
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Costs for keeping a gas car for 15 years vary significantly by vehicle, as do keeping bev's for 15 years.

A leaf replacement pack is about $6,200 all in for replacement. Battery degradation is what typically dictates a battery replacement.

Tesla claims a model 3 pack replacement will cost between "5k and 7k and would last 300k-500k miles or 1,500 cycles". Again though, it's about degradation and how it relates to your use case.

The biggest costs for keeping an ICE car for 15 years are the engine and trans/transaxle, it also depends on what vehicle you buy though; for example Subaru headgaskets = about 100k miles, and you're pulling the engine to do them.

DI related valve cleaning is a thing too, but a minor one.

Suspension wears out regardless of what turns the wheels.

Regular maintenance items are reduces significantly when you compare a BEV to an ICE vehicle; oil & filter, engine air filter, brakes etc.

I suggest you hit google, and/or build a spreadsheet; the data will continue to be fuzzy until there are more high mileage BEVs out there.

All of that stated, I personally don't like to keep a vehicle past 10 years, I'm doing it now, but I'm not particularly happy about it - stuff breaks with more frequency, and the vehicles residual value diminishes to the point where a big repair can cost more than it's worth.

The other factor to consider is safety, there is a reason why teen drivers are more expensive to insure, and it's because they get in accidents more frequently. Eleven to twelve years from now when my son is driving, I'm not sure I'll want him in an older car, I'm more likely to pick up a slightly used corolla/civic or camry/accord equivalent; something where parts are plentiful and cheap that has a modern chassis that can protect his dumba** when he runs it into a tree on a dirt backroad at nearly double the speed limit.
It's always an interesting argument because there is never a clear answer.

Yes, BEV's have an advantage in regular maintenance. If you need a new battery pack for the Leaf after warranty is up, the same question arises, is it worth it because it might cost just as much as the car. Leaf depreciation is huge.

As a car gets to 15 yrs old, problems might not be drivetrain related, it can be the other stuff, especially electrical. That can plague any car now.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:08 PM   #15
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Back on topic, I don't know how I feel about GM's real commitment to BEV's. Sure, they had the first mass produced EV1 in the 90's but then bailed. They were one of the first to offer a PHEV in the Volt, but then didn't make any real improvements over the years and bailing on that.

They beat Tesla to the market with a long range "affordable" EV Bolt but, lack any style, don't do much to promote it or improve upon it, and sales are low, even compared to the lower range Leaf. It feels like a marketing and compliance vehicle. Now it feels forgettable.

There may be a little hope as GM does have another Bolt based crossover coming.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:14 PM   #16
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Back on topic, I don't know how I feel about GM's real commitment to BEV's. Sure, they had the first mass produced EV1 in the 90's but then bailed. They were one of the first to offer a PHEV in the Volt, but then didn't make any real improvements over the years and bailing on that.

They beat Tesla to the market with a long range "affordable" EV Bolt but, lack any style, don't do much to promote it or improve upon it, and sales are low, even compared to the lower range Leaf. It feels like a marketing and compliance vehicle. Now it feels forgettable.

There may be a little hope as GM does have another Bolt based crossover coming.
I think it's a failure to understand the small car buyer. They make assumptions based on previous products and marketing research and puke up a FWD egg-shaped thing in the worst green imaginable.

Now look at Honda's e-whatever they're introducing to Europe. GM is the company that gave us the Aztek. Never forget that.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:46 PM   #17
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I think the biggest issue with EV isn't road trips, it's people who don't have a private garage or driveway to charge without it being another chore. That's a big chunk of people.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:50 PM   #18
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You need fast charging stations for people who can't charge at home. Tesla's V3 supercharger, which can run up to 250 Kw (at lower state of charge), is a step in the right direction.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:55 PM   #19
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It's always an interesting argument because there is never a clear answer.

Yes, BEV's have an advantage in regular maintenance. If you need a new battery pack for the Leaf after warranty is up, the same question arises, is it worth it because it might cost just as much as the car. Leaf depreciation is huge.

As a car gets to 15 yrs old, problems might not be drivetrain related, it can be the other stuff, especially electrical. That can plague any car now.
again, manufacturer to manufacturer; that's why I mentioned the subaru head gasket issue; other manufacturers (VAG) have/had electrical issues - it's usually a crap-shoot after 10 years as cars have gotten far more complex, and will continue to do so over the years.

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Originally Posted by subyski View Post
Back on topic, I don't know how I feel about GM's real commitment to BEV's. Sure, they had the first mass produced EV1 in the 90's but then bailed. They were one of the first to offer a PHEV in the Volt, but then didn't make any real improvements over the years and bailing on that.

They beat Tesla to the market with a long range "affordable" EV Bolt but, lack any style, don't do much to promote it or improve upon it, and sales are low, even compared to the lower range Leaf. It feels like a marketing and compliance vehicle. Now it feels forgettable.

There may be a little hope as GM does have another Bolt based crossover coming.
Do some reading on the EV-1; it was essentially an experiment to see if EV's were feasible at the time, and GM lost money on each one.

The Volt came well after the prius had already cemented it's position as "the" hybrid on the market; GM was ten years late to the party, and in typical GM fashion, applied minimal effort.

The Bolt; man have you been in a Bolt? the interior is basically a derivative of the worst 80's/90's GM interiors with some shiny stickers on the dash. People complain about the WRX & STi interior, those people need to spend one test drive in the bolt. Beyond that, it had abysmal cargo space, and a crap driving position. GM tried to half-a$$ their way into the EV market by copying the leaf.

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I think it's a failure to understand the small car buyer. They make assumptions based on previous products and marketing research and puke up a FWD egg-shaped thing in the worst green imaginable.

Now look at Honda's e-whatever they're introducing to Europe. GM is the company that gave us the Aztek. Never forget that.
That is a statement I agree with - GM doesn't innovate, they see what is in the market, try to copy it, committee the damn thing to death, cut corners to save on production costs, committee redesign it, and burn a bunch of cash in the process, while delivering a mediocre product. Even the Corvette & Camaro, as good as they are as performers, are hampered by design committee decisions.

Honda has what I suspect will be a winner on their hands in the "Honda e" the interior is retro-inspired where GM just pulls from their NOS pile for everything (for the youngins, NOS = New Old Stock, not Nitrous Oxide).
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Old 08-14-2019, 03:29 PM   #20
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You’re also forgetting one variable, acquisition cost. What does a base model Prius go for? $20k or so? Yes, I know long term costs can be greater than an EV but most can only focus on immediate cost.
$25K. Base model Leaf costs $30K.

That's a 20% cost increase. Not insignificant, but also easily recoverable with refueling costs.
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