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Old 10-09-2019, 04:56 PM   #1626
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I don't know that I'd extrapolate this report that far... EV's are still a very small % of car sales. ICE cars will be around for a long time. Manufacturers are already starting to ramp up EV production and ramp down ICE production. Laws of supply and demand will keep manufacturers making the right ratio of cars, give or take a little lag time, but I don't see any pending doom for ICE car resale value... it'll just taper off over time.

I personally have no desire to buy a "keeper" ICE car. I'm happy to live in the present and embrace new technology.
In the segment of "small to midsize luxury cars" Tesla (mainly model 3) actually have 24% of the US market outselling all other brands.


https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/07...-sales-in-usa/
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Old 10-09-2019, 05:08 PM   #1627
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I don't know that I'd extrapolate this report that far... EV's are still a very small % of car sales. ICE cars will be around for a long time. Manufacturers are already starting to ramp up EV production and ramp down ICE production. Laws of supply and demand will keep manufacturers making the right ratio of cars, give or take a little lag time, but I don't see any pending doom for ICE car resale value... it'll just taper off over time.

I personally have no desire to buy a "keeper" ICE car. I'm happy to live in the present and embrace new technology.
The only new ICE cars Iíd want to buy as forever keepers would be a Porsche GT3RS (maybe gt2rs), some sort of Ferrari and a koenigsegg, all of which I canít afford so **** me, not happening.
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Old 10-09-2019, 05:35 PM   #1628
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The only new ICE cars Iíd want to buy as forever keepers would be a Porsche GT3RS (maybe gt2rs), some sort of Ferrari and a koenigsegg, all of which I canít afford so **** me, not happening.
I have gone smaller with a 2000 S2000, which is low tech and close to bulletproof
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Old 10-09-2019, 05:37 PM   #1629
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All cars depreciate, and so far EV's have depreciated more than SOME ICE cars. Technology ages horribly bad. The Teslas will age badly as more and more car makes enter the market. Now if they make a new model 3 and S (3.2 or S.2) with a realistic interior then they will rebound.
Most car technology ages horribly, because it's stuck in time.

If you have over the air updates, and few physical buttons, the technology "ages" much more slowly as you can update for at least the first few years until new compute power or other hardware is required. The Model 3 autopilot computer was designed to be swapped out if/when newer hardware became available.

I know the interior isn't your cup of tea, but not having to see a plethora of buttons and vents I never touch or touch rarely is so freaking refreshing.
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Old 10-09-2019, 05:38 PM   #1630
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The only new ICE cars Iíd want to buy as forever keepers would be a Porsche GT3RS (maybe gt2rs), some sort of Ferrari and a koenigsegg, all of which I canít afford so **** me, not happening.
I think I have most of mine, but I still have never bought a Corvette.

The C8 may change that.
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Old 10-09-2019, 05:56 PM   #1631
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Most car technology ages horribly, because it's stuck in time.

If you have over the air updates, and few physical buttons, the technology "ages" much more slowly as you can update for at least the first few years until new compute power or other hardware is required. The Model 3 autopilot computer was designed to be swapped out if/when newer hardware became available.

I know the interior isn't your cup of tea, but not having to see a plethora of buttons and vents I never touch or touch rarely is so freaking refreshing.
I find it much more relaxing "Zen", and think it will lower depreciation significantly as it looks like Tesla are planning much longer model cycles (model S introduced in 2012, 7 years so fare and no published full model change)
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Old 10-09-2019, 06:11 PM   #1632
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Depreciation of tesla models, in my opinion will be of 2 things:

-Significant jump in battery mileage and charging at relatively same price as prior model
-Mass market of available EV’s causing a price lowering assuming Tesla make changes to current lineup.
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Old 10-09-2019, 06:23 PM   #1633
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Depreciation of tesla models, in my opinion will be of 2 things:

-Significant jump in battery mileage and charging at relatively same price as prior model
-Mass market of available EV’s causing a price lowering assuming Tesla make changes to current lineup.
It fully agree that battery mileage will be a major factor in the depreciation.

I'm not sure if existing carmakers are willing to change their core design philosophy to a "simpler" pure software approach and longer model cycles (less overall sales volume). For now, I think Tesla can only gain (if they don’t run out of cash) as they add models in new segments and increase their production capacity around the world.
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Old 10-09-2019, 06:58 PM   #1634
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The only new ICE cars I’d want to buy as forever keepers would be a Porsche GT3RS (maybe gt2rs), some sort of Ferrari and a koenigsegg, all of which I can’t afford so **** me, not happening.
Yeah, all of the ICE cars I'd want to keep "forever" are all out of my price range, and/or are so impractical for my current life situation that I don't want to drop money on a depreciating vehicle. For example, I'd certainly consider picking up an S2000. Thought about it. But it'd be a garage car. I have a wife and as of 2 months from now, two kids. I'd get to drive it... never. So it'd just sit and rot. That's a nice pile of money that I'd rather have working for me, rather than sitting in a pile in my garage.

If I were in a different place financially, perhaps, but right now I have other priorities. Instead of a DD and a fun car, I have a fun DD. Also lots of money in snowboarding and mountain biking . It's currently working for me.
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Old 10-09-2019, 07:17 PM   #1635
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In the segment of "small to midsize luxury cars" Tesla (mainly model 3) actually have 24% of the US market outselling all other brands.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/07...-sales-in-usa/
Yeah. But whether they can sustain that level of sales is yet to be seen. The small to mid size luxury market is small, and if you were to drop the "luxury" moniker, the numbers would look different. They've certainly swooped in and gotten a lot of buyers out of the luxury market, but is it sustainable? The small to mid size luxury market didn't have an EV option until the Model 3 came along, so there was likely a lot of pent-up demand. Release the dam, and yes, there will be a lot of sales. But once the initial rush is over, will it be sustained? Only time will tell, but I think it's too risky to extrapolate that data set over time. I know I wouldn't bet any of my personal money on it...
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Old 10-09-2019, 08:02 PM   #1636
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Yeah. But whether they can sustain that level of sales is yet to be seen. The small to mid size luxury market is small, and if you were to drop the "luxury" moniker, the numbers would look different. They've certainly swooped in and gotten a lot of buyers out of the luxury market, but is it sustainable? The small to mid size luxury market didn't have an EV option until the Model 3 came along, so there was likely a lot of pent-up demand. Release the dam, and yes, there will be a lot of sales. But once the initial rush is over, will it be sustained? Only time will tell, but I think it's too risky to extrapolate that data set over time. I know I wouldn't bet any of my personal money on it...
Battery costs or lack of range, will be an issue in the none-"luxury" segments.

One element that can cover that some (if batteries can last) is longer-term low TCO, which can make used Teslas compete with none luxury brands.


https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27...r-cost-to-own/
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Old 10-09-2019, 09:38 PM   #1637
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It fully agree that battery mileage will be a major factor in the depreciation.

I'm not sure if existing carmakers are willing to change their core design philosophy to a "simpler" pure software approach and longer model cycles (less overall sales volume). For now, I think Tesla can only gain (if they donít run out of cash) as they add models in new segments and increase their production capacity around the world.
I donít think EVís will be longer sales cycles once the large autos offer a decent EV line up. Tesla sales are long because they havenít really added much over the years (minus P series) and at that point, youíre close to $75-100k.

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Originally Posted by S2K View Post
Battery costs or lack of range, will be an issue in the none-"luxury" segments.

One element that can cover that some (if batteries can last) is longer-term low TCO, which can make used Teslas compete with none luxury brands.


https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27...r-cost-to-own/
Hereís the thing, most people are so debt strapped that they canít afford to pay more upfront for overall long term savings. Itís a really ****ty way people go about wanting and buying stuff and not putting money away / investing and holding off on the purchase so that they can put more down.

This also plays into people stretching out their loans to 84 months. Canít wait, needs NOW!!!
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:28 PM   #1638
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I don’t think EV’s will be longer sales cycles once the large autos offer a decent EV line up. Tesla sales are long because they haven’t really added much over the years (minus P series) and at that point, you’re close to $75-100k.



Here’s the thing, most people are so debt strapped that they can’t afford to pay more upfront for overall long term savings. It’s a really ****ty way people go about wanting and buying stuff and not putting money away / investing and holding off on the purchase so that they can put more down.

This also plays into people stretching out their loans to 84 months. Can’t wait, needs NOW!!!
I don't think Tesla is planning to add much over the years, beyond frequent software and needed processor updates, which they are just now doing in older models https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/11...ng-hardware-3/

The upfront higher cost is definitely an issue, but the low TCO lend itself to other financing models, such as lease with no buyback option.

"Purchase
Please review your lease agreement to see if you have the option to purchase your vehicle at the end of your lease. Model 3 is not eligible for purchase at any point in your lease agreement."
https://www.tesla.com/support/lease-end-options

I would expect seeing these Model 3’s coming back as Tesla-refurbished (new chipset, software and refurbished battery), for much less than a new Camry, which will serve the lower end of the market.

Let's see. Interesting times to come!
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Old 10-10-2019, 10:56 AM   #1639
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Battery costs or lack of range, will be an issue in the none-"luxury" segments.

One element that can cover that some (if batteries can last) is longer-term low TCO, which can make used Teslas compete with none luxury brands.


https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27...r-cost-to-own/
No such thing as a 30000 dollar Tesla, not sure how that is possible.
National average for fuel is 2.65
most people I know never put 15000 miles a year. I can make the numbers work out to anything.

EDIT, never mind I just read it said used Tesla... carry on
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Old 10-10-2019, 11:31 AM   #1640
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I personally have no desire to buy a "keeper" ICE car. I'm happy to live in the present and embrace new technology.
I sure do. Buying keepers is what got me to stop buying new motorcycles. It has saved me a lot of money already. Without that methodology I would have had 2-3 purchases over the last 10 years.

I sure am eyeing that keeper car. C7 GS/Z06 are both looking outstanding as well as the GT350 with 2019 motor changes. Parts for either will be available for years. Brand new they are out of my price range unless I want to sell a few of my vehicles and I don't. So the power of depreciation is my friend. I'm learning these Vette guys, man they have to have the latest greatest and treat their cars like a baby's ass. So finding one won't be too difficult.

I figured out many years ago if you stop sell/trade/buy you can have a fleet. I think my favorite thing to do in the world is receive a title and the drive up to the bank to put it in the security box, is priceless. Just put my 4th in there.
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:40 PM   #1641
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Battery Tech, but if this is true you will see it in smart Phones first. You be able to charge in 5min and last 3 days. Californians will rush to buy wall packs having to deal with problematic Enron developed system
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:44 PM   #1642
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[quote=SCRAPPYDO;46144663]No such thing as a 30000 dollar Tesla, not sure how that is possible.
National average for fuel is 2.65
most people I know never put 15000 miles a year. I can make the numbers work out to anything.

EDIT, never mind I just read it said used Tesla... carry on [/QUOTE

not everywhere pays .13 Kwhr especially Tesla country CA. Washington state among cheapest as Hydroelectric
https://www.globalenergyinstitute.or...SAAEgLoX_D_BwE

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/06/cali...l-average.html
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:27 PM   #1643
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Most car technology ages horribly, because it's stuck in time.

If you have over the air updates, and few physical buttons, the technology "ages" much more slowly as you can update for at least the first few years until new compute power or other hardware is required. The Model 3 autopilot computer was designed to be swapped out if/when newer hardware became available.

I know the interior isn't your cup of tea, but not having to see a plethora of buttons and vents I never touch or touch rarely is so freaking refreshing.
In this aspect cars should remain stuck in time. Taking your eyes off the road to dick around with radio stations, HVAC, seat adjustments or anything else of the sort is a serious safety issue.
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Old 10-15-2019, 09:24 PM   #1644
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So the Model Y appears to be going into production almost a year early

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/15...official-leak/
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Old 10-15-2019, 09:48 PM   #1645
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So the Model Y appears to be going into production almost a year early

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/15...official-leak/
Probably want to get it to market before the ID.4
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Old 10-16-2019, 08:48 AM   #1646
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So the Model Y appears to be going into production almost a year early

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/15...official-leak/
Tesla, Early? those two words aren't usually spoken together in a positive way; this situation perplexes me...
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Old 10-16-2019, 02:41 PM   #1647
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I want to sit in one. I really want to know if it feels any more roomy inside than a Model 3.
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Old 10-16-2019, 02:58 PM   #1648
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So the Model Y appears to be going into production almost a year early

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/15...official-leak/
If this is indeed true, I wonder if itís because Model 3 sales are declining year over year for August and September (40% / 13% respectively). That said, total model 3 sales YTD are up 136%. https://fortune.com/2019/10/14/tesla...wAdminBar=true


I guess weíll have to see it to believe it type of mentality for the model Y. Iíd be happy to see it hit production next year. Q3 earnings should be very interesting. They without a doubt had a record quarter for deliveries, nearly 100k vehicles. The interesting part will be the profitability (if one is recognized) and cash balance.

Just a thought off the top of my head, but trying to develop the 3 motor Model S as their top performance car at the current time seems like an awful waste of resources considering how small that market will be to overall revenue and profit. I really wish Elon would just slam some damn adder rap and focus on the larger picture versus trying to always be king of the castle in EV top performance.


I think the China roll out over the next 1-1.5 years will be interesting to see. I canít help but wondering how sustainable demand will be for profitable top end models of S, X, 3 versus how quickly the demand drops for the lower cost variants and how long demand sustains for those. Tesla needs to find a way to have more than just 1-2 consecutive quarters of profit when a new model is released. If they could find a way to cut battery costs by 1/3 I think they would be a rather sustainable business fairly easy.
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Old 10-16-2019, 05:08 PM   #1649
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If this is indeed true, I wonder if itís because Model 3 sales are declining year over year for August and September (40% / 13% respectively). That said, total model 3 sales YTD are up 136%. https://fortune.com/2019/10/14/tesla...wAdminBar=true


I guess weíll have to see it to believe it type of mentality for the model Y. Iíd be happy to see it hit production next year. Q3 earnings should be very interesting. They without a doubt had a record quarter for deliveries, nearly 100k vehicles. The interesting part will be the profitability (if one is recognized) and cash balance.

Just a thought off the top of my head, but trying to develop the 3 motor Model S as their top performance car at the current time seems like an awful waste of resources considering how small that market will be to overall revenue and profit. I really wish Elon would just slam some damn adder rap and focus on the larger picture versus trying to always be king of the castle in EV top performance.


I think the China roll out over the next 1-1.5 years will be interesting to see. I canít help but wondering how sustainable demand will be for profitable top end models of S, X, 3 versus how quickly the demand drops for the lower cost variants and how long demand sustains for those. Tesla needs to find a way to have more than just 1-2 consecutive quarters of profit when a new model is released. If they could find a way to cut battery costs by 1/3 I think they would be a rather sustainable business fairly easy.
Tesla is testing the Roadster tri motor setup in the model S which is not a waste of resources since it was already planned. Now since they can package the tri motor configuration on the Model S and X why not sell it while they are at it.
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Old 10-16-2019, 09:35 PM   #1650
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Tesla is testing the Roadster tri motor setup in the model S which is not a waste of resources since it was already planned. Now since they can package the tri motor configuration on the Model S and X why not sell it while they are at it.
Because itís time and money being diverted away from other projects that would generate more profit and cash (semi, truck, y, etc). The amount of people that will be able to afford the tri motor config are very few when looking at overall picture.
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