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Old 05-07-2021, 07:23 AM   #1
AVANTI R5
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Default Possible Tire Shortage

It's important to state right up front that there's no rubber or tire shortage in the United States just yet.
However, for the future-minded, all the pieces are in place for one to hit the auto industry in the near future.
For now, tire companies including Continental, Goodyear, and Bridgestone all say they have enough supply and production is rolling along.
If you have enough to worry about, then don't spare a thought for all the rubber tires needed in the auto industry. On the seemingly never-ending list of things that are causing headaches for automobile production plants—COVID precautions; a semiconductor chip shortage; even too few tanker-truck drivers, which could mean a gasoline shortage this summer—we can now add tires. It's not a full-blown problem just yet, but tire manufacturers are keeping an eye on the situation.

Bloomberg has reported that the supply of natural rubber, which comes from rubber trees mostly grown in Southeast Asia, is about to get harder to find. There are a number of reasons, but the main one is that supply was high recently and, because of COVID-19, rubber producers were not able to plant new rubber trees as they otherwise would have. Since these trees take seven years to mature and leaf disease and flooding have affected the trees that offer the current rubber supply, the supply is dropping. Add to that higher demand from China, which is the largest consumer of natural rubber in the world and is bouncing back from the pandemic before other major industrial countries, and a lack of shipping containers, and you have a situation where the forecasters can see trouble on the horizon. According to Bloomberg, rubber prices hit a four-year high in February.

News reports suggest that domestic tire manufacturing is running as scheduled with a rubber supply that remains solid, for now. Continental told the South Carolina–based Post and Courier that it is not seeing a "widespread shortage" at the moment. "There are natural ebbs and flows with this commodity, but short-term no major shortages," a spokesperson said.

Goodyear gave CNBC a similar statement, saying: "We are not currently experiencing supply limitations on natural rubber. While we experienced tight supply late last year during the industry ramp up, we took proactive measures that ensured Goodyear's rubber supply met our factory needs."

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And Bridgestone Americas president and CEO Paolo Ferrari told CNBC that Bridgestone has also not yet been affected by the shortage nor had to stop any production. He did say his team is keeping an eye on the supply chain and flagging certain items with a red/yellow/green coding system. Commercial tire demand remained high through the pandemic thus far, he said, but the need for passenger vehicle tires did, obviously, drop some. "2020 was a reasonable year, all things considered," he said.

As for 2021, a source told Bloomberg that "[The rubber supply is] definitely tightening up. It's nowhere near the level of the chip shortage from our perspective so far, but it's definitely brewing."
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Old 05-07-2021, 07:48 AM   #2
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Oh no!!! CONDOMS, what about the condoms??? I'd better stock up right now!

Wait a minute... I'm over 50 and married with children...

Scratch that. Carry on.

Brandon
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Old 05-07-2021, 12:16 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brandon View Post
Oh no!!! CONDOMS, what about the condoms??? I'd better stock up right now!

Wait a minute... I'm over 50 and married with children...

Scratch that. Carry on.

Brandon

You know how much condoms used to cost back in them days?





I don't know, we never used 'em.
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Old 05-07-2021, 12:40 PM   #4
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Semiconductor shortage has taken quite a toll, steel prices gone up, now this..

I'm glad I have a spare set of SuperSports for my A90 as I do not have a spare wheel set for the car (yet). My other cars are covered... well, Forester can use whatever tire is available.
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Old 05-07-2021, 02:09 PM   #5
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wait until you see the prices for your Woodie going through the roof
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Old 05-07-2021, 04:09 PM   #6
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Small local mom and pop startup is stepping up to meet demand.

Quote:
Intel is spending $20 billion to build two new chip plants in Arizona

Intel announced on Tuesday that it will spend $20 billion to build two major factories in Arizona.

The news comes amid a worldwide chip shortage that is snarling industries from automobiles to electronics and worries the U.S. is falling behind in semiconductor manufacturing.

The announcement signals that Intel will continue to focus on manufacturing.
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Old 05-07-2021, 04:28 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by 4S-TURBO View Post
Small local mom and pop startup is stepping up to meet demand.
Are they going to make tires too?
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Old 05-07-2021, 04:39 PM   #8
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Why not? This article is from 2009:

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Tires made from trees - better, cheaper, more fuel efficient

CORVALLIS, Ore. - Automobile owners around the world may some day soon be driving on tires that are partly made out of trees - which could cost less, perform better and save on fuel and energy.

Wood science researchers at Oregon State University have made some surprising findings about the potential of microcrystalline cellulose - a product that can be made easily from almost any type of plant fibers - to partially replace silica as a reinforcing filler in the manufacture of rubber tires.

A new study suggests that this approach might decrease the energy required to produce the tire, reduce costs, and better resist heat buildup. Early tests indicate that such products would have comparable traction on cold or wet pavement, be just as strong, and provide even higher fuel efficiency than traditional tires in hot weather.

"We were surprised at how favorable the results were for the use of this material," said Kaichang Li, an associate professor of wood science and engineering in the OSU College of Forestry, who conducted this research with graduate student Wen Bai.

"This could lead to a new generation of automotive tire technology, one of the first fundamental changes to come around in a long time," Li said.

Cellulose fiber has been used for some time as reinforcement in some types of rubber and automotive products, such as belts, hoses and insulation - but never in tires, where the preferred fillers are carbon black and silica. Carbon black, however, is made from increasingly expensive oil, and the processing of silica is energy-intensive. Both products are very dense and reduce the fuel efficiency of automobiles.
Step up Intel and cure the all the automotive ills from the COVID frownface.
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Old 05-07-2021, 07:32 PM   #9
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Are they going to make tires too?
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Old 05-08-2021, 12:22 PM   #10
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everything you buy will jump in prices big time especially EVs . copper and all metals record highs, food too
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bets-on...gh-11620384716
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Old 05-08-2021, 12:52 PM   #11
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Here's why that's a good thing.
-New York Times Probably
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Old 05-08-2021, 09:14 PM   #12
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Price increases are already here. I've been keeping an eye on tires for awhile as I had recently ordered some new wheels (just arrived today after a few months of waiting) and I will be getting some new rubber for them pretty soon.

Last time I bought tires was about 2.5 years ago, Falken Azenis FK510s in 265/35/18. At the time they were around $165 per tire on TireRack. Last month they were around $189. I checked last night and now they are $209 per tire. A few other tire models I've been keeping an eye on are also around $20-30 more per tire than they were a month or two ago.
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Old 05-09-2021, 03:05 PM   #13
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Good example to learn from for some of you. I front load tire buys. I'll buy them even when I don't need them watching mfr rebates (prepaid Visas) and combining those with DT rebates (prepaid Visas). My last set of Conti's I banged both visas at the same time, got DT to match TR pricing also. I have two tire racks in my garage bolted to the walls. One is for the performance car and it's empty (usually holds my winter wheel set also) and the other is for motorcycle tires. I think I have 3 sets of Bridgestones sitting on that rack right now. Tires are still in the shipping plastic wrap so no air is hurting them and they are not sitting on the ground.

July 4th is usually when the best deals are. That and Memorial/Labor day. That's always when I see the combo deals between mfr and DT. I've done this so many times that the local DT will get a new manager and he'll say "I don't know if you can do both deals at the same time and I'm like yeah you can, done it before mf'er. Order my ish. This year is screwed like last year but 2022 the deals will be back.
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Old 05-10-2021, 11:42 AM   #14
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We need a TSMC level chip fab in the U.S. I feel it's a national security interest beyond just a worldwide supply issue.
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Old 05-10-2021, 11:51 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pre View Post
Good example to learn from for some of you. I front load tire buys. I'll buy them even when I don't need them watching mfr rebates (prepaid Visas) and combining those with DT rebates (prepaid Visas). My last set of Conti's I banged both visas at the same time, got DT to match TR pricing also. I have two tire racks in my garage bolted to the walls. One is for the performance car and it's empty (usually holds my winter wheel set also) and the other is for motorcycle tires. I think I have 3 sets of Bridgestones sitting on that rack right now. Tires are still in the shipping plastic wrap so no air is hurting them and they are not sitting on the ground.

July 4th is usually when the best deals are. That and Memorial/Labor day. That's always when I see the combo deals between mfr and DT. I've done this so many times that the local DT will get a new manager and he'll say "I don't know if you can do both deals at the same time and I'm like yeah you can, done it before mf'er. Order my ish. This year is screwed like last year but 2022 the deals will be back.
I do not disagree when buying tires are cheap, however, wrapped in plastic or not, tires do still harden over time. The petroleum will thicken and get brittle. Now will it happen over a year or two, probably not. But just take note of the born on date of the tire. At times when you buy them they are already over a year old.
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Old 05-10-2021, 06:19 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
I do not disagree when buying tires are cheap, however, wrapped in plastic or not, tires do still harden over time. The petroleum will thicken and get brittle. Now will it happen over a year or two, probably not. But just take note of the born on date of the tire. At times when you buy them they are already over a year old.
That has not been my experience at all. I’ve been buying deep and stacking motorcycle tires for 20 years. If they are wrapped up good and not left laying on a floor I don’t get the tire degradation. I’ve definitely seen that happen on a rack in a shop, or left laying on a floor, sure. There is a technique to storing them. But I’m also not taking 5 years to use them either.
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