Wall Street Warns of Trouble Brewing in Auto Loans as Prices Dip

[Sid03SVT]

it's 2008 all over again, except instead of being upside down in a 30-40k truck/SUV & 200-300k houses, people are upside down in 50k+ CUVs/trucks 400k-500k+ houses.

I mean it is different; 2008 was started by sub-prime/predatory mortgages, and our current situation was/is a global pandemic which started a snowball effect, rippling through all industries.

The two consistencies though: greedy people/corporations being greedy & underinformed/unintelligent consumers being underinformed/unintelligent; I feel like a lot of people think they "need the thing" when in reality most of them just "want the thing" but can't differentiate and if someone is willing to take out a massive loan at a huge interest rate, there is someone out there willing to give it to them.

My wife "wanted the thing" but we bought the thing cash because 0% wasn't going to happen, especially not with interest rates where they are, it's the first time we've paid MSRP for a vehicle, but we also got ~$3,500 more than we paid for her car back in 2017 when it was new; I know they paid us too much for it, but I'm not going to say no when a corporation offers me more money for something. We also get a $6.6k fed tax credit and a $750 state tax credit, if we didn't have the cash on hand to buy the vehicle though, those numbers wouldn't have swayed us into a 3.75% loan.

Although my wifes car hasn't been put up for sale by Carvana yet, similar age/mileage models are list for what their MSRP was in 2017/2018; which coincidentally is MSRP of a 2022/2023.

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[Russ_G93]

This^

[thill]

I have been watching the auction and whole sale prices and some really informative used car dealer youtube channels. The tide has turned and most dealers are either in denial or paid more for their used car than it is worth + the carrying costs.

6 months ago cars were almost always going through the auction sold. Now? Tons of them go through auction 1, 2, 3+ times without meeting reserve or even getting a low ball bid. Gas guzzling trucks and SUV's are really getting hit and diesel too due to the high cost of fuel.

Sure some used vehicles (particularity fuel efficient cheaper vehicles) are in high demand, but there are a lot of smaller to mid used car dealers (and some massive dealers too) that may not survive the next 6-12 months as interest rates continue to rise and banks have become much more selective about used car loans with repos up and the used car market starting to fall. They don't want to be holding the bag when people walk away from a car that is worth way less than what it is financed for.

I am usually not a doomsday person, but I think the used car market is in for a world of hurt over the next year. New car inventory is also slowly starting to build up which will add to this, especially with high inflation and interest rates.

[godfather2112]

There have several 2020 BMW M2C (clean title, 10k miles and 20k miles, 6spd and dct) that recently sold on BAT for $51k and $48.5k).

Meanwhile I'm watching jerkoffs on the Supra forum trying to flip their new Supra for $10k more than they paid. Poor bastards gonna get hosed

[godfather2112]

There have several 2020 BMW M2C (clean title, 10k miles and 20k miles, 6spd and dct) that recently sold on BAT for $51k and $48.5k).

Meanwhile I’m watching jerkoffs on the Supra forum trying to flip their new Supra for $10k more than they paid. Poor bastards gonna get hosed

[Sid03SVT]

Originally Posted by thill

I have been watching the auction and whole sale prices and some really informative used car dealer youtube channels. The tide has turned and most dealers are either in denial or paid more for their used car than it is worth + the carrying costs.

6 months ago cars were almost always going through the auction sold. Now? Tons of them go through auction 1, 2, 3+ times without meeting reserve or even getting a low ball bid. Gas guzzling trucks and SUV's are really getting hit and diesel too due to the high cost of fuel.

Sure some used vehicles (particularity fuel efficient cheaper vehicles) are in high demand, but there are a lot of smaller to mid used car dealers (and some massive dealers too) that may not survive the next 6-12 months as interest rates continue to rise and banks have become much more selective about used car loans with repos up and the used car market starting to fall. They don't want to be holding the bag when people walk away from a car that is worth way less than what it is financed for.

I am usually not a doomsday person, but I think the used car market is in for a world of hurt over the next year. New car inventory is also slowly starting to build up which will add to this, especially with high inflation and interest rates.

I watch auctions too; I was glad I sold while the time was still good/our vehicle was overvalued.

I wonder if Carvana, Car Max & other online retailers will survive, as well as dealerships that loaded up on overvalued vehicles.

My local Chevy dealer has several 2019-2022 BMW/Audi/Mercs near/at/over MSRP, as well as a used 2022 Tesla Model 3 listed at MSRP.... They typically ask over market for cars, but I can't imagine what they paid for these things on trade, and I can't imagine anyone buying them at these prices in lieu of new (I feel like people spending 50k+ on a sedan typically don't "need" a vehicle right now and can wait for the right deal, at least I like to think that....).

[thill]

Originally Posted by Sid03SVT

I watch auctions too; I was glad I sold while the time was still good/our vehicle was overvalued.

I wonder if Carvana, Car Max & other online retailers will survive, as well as dealerships that loaded up on overvalued vehicles.

My local Chevy dealer has several 2019-2022 BMW/Audi/Mercs near/at/over MSRP, as well as a used 2022 Tesla Model 3 listed at MSRP.... They typically ask over market for cars, but I can't imagine what they paid for these things on trade, and I can't imagine anyone buying them at these prices in lieu of new (I feel like people spending 50k+ on a sedan typically don't "need" a vehicle right now and can wait for the right deal, at least I like to think that....).

We have a Nissan/Toyota dealer (Hoffman) that is maybe 4 miles from my house. It is near a Best Buy and I happened to see three massive rows of high end cars all parked there in June. Talking Lambo, tons of Porsches (including a few manual GT3's), a few R8's, a bunch of BMW M3/M4/M5, thee C8 Corvettes, a Bently, 3 GTR's. I was like WTF? I walked the lot and was blown away. Talking millions and millions of dollars in inventory sitting outside with no cover/protection.

I thought it must be random and went to the website and all of these cars are for sale and 90% of them still are. They must have huge carrying costs between loans, insurance, tax, keeping them clean. Most of them just sitting there for 5+ months....

I have no idea what they will do in the winter with these cars in New England. Talking some $150-600K cars and tons of them. At this tiny dealer... Maybe they sell cocaine on the side?

https://www.hoffmantoyota.com/used-c...etPrice%20desc

[DougNuts]

Originally Posted by thill

We have a Nissan/Toyota dealer (Hoffman) that is maybe 4 miles from my house. It is near a Best Buy and I happened to see three massive rows of high end cars all parked there in June. Talking Lambo, tons of Porsches (including a few manual GT3's), a few R8's, a bunch of BMW M3/M4/M5, thee C8 Corvettes, a Bently, 3 GTR's. I was like WTF? I walked the lot and was blown away. Talking millions and millions of dollars in inventory sitting outside with no cover/protection.

Probably accepted as trade-ins on TRD Pro vehicles.

[thill]

Originally Posted by DougNuts

Probably accepted as trade-ins on TRD Pro vehicles.

I think they had one of those for sale for like $90K...

But yeah, nuts. Or Rav4 Prime. "Honey good news, I traded in the GTR on a Rav4Prime and only had to pay $3K for vin etching, helium in the tires, and a scotchguard package"!

[samb]

The local Ford dealership has a Mach 1 in the showroom, advertising "no markup!!!"

Not sure what to think of that other than things must be swinging the other way for those greedy jerks.

[murrdogg24]

good times ahead fellas

[Sid03SVT]

Originally Posted by thill

We have a Nissan/Toyota dealer (Hoffman) that is maybe 4 miles from my house. It is near a Best Buy and I happened to see three massive rows of high end cars all parked there in June. Talking Lambo, tons of Porsches (including a few manual GT3's), a few R8's, a bunch of BMW M3/M4/M5, thee C8 Corvettes, a Bently, 3 GTR's. I was like WTF? I walked the lot and was blown away. Talking millions and millions of dollars in inventory sitting outside with no cover/protection.

I thought it must be random and went to the website and all of these cars are for sale and 90% of them still are. They must have huge carrying costs between loans, insurance, tax, keeping them clean. Most of them just sitting there for 5+ months....

I have no idea what they will do in the winter with these cars in New England. Talking some $150-600K cars and tons of them. At this tiny dealer... Maybe they sell cocaine on the side?

https://www.hoffmantoyota.com/used-c...etPrice%20desc

Three things....
1.) ****e we are close to each other; I'm ~40 mins from that dealership.
2.) Hoffman auto group is massive - just about all makes; I'm confident in saying they share loss/profit as well as listings across the dealerships on a corporate level.
3.) I also wonder if they are connected to Hoffman guns or any of the other "Hoffman" run businesses throughout the state, hey maybe it's a common name, right? or maybe it's about overall portfolio performance.

I think a lot of dealers/resellers are trying to "hold" on the wrong cars, at least now that used cars are available in droves at auctions; people that "need" cars aren't interested in anything 40k+, hell I know people that aren't interested in anything 20k+, especially not luxury marques (aside from like queens, a lot of leases for 60k SUV's on 1k/mo rentals), and the people I know that are interested in luxury and/or toys (in my circle of greater New England) are self-made & cheap SOBs. The guys I know that race Vettes & Porsches bought at invoice or below, at worst at MSRP on an ordered "strippy" HP model ("base" ZO6 coupe for example).

What I do know is that I will be checking Hoffman out in ~6 months when those manual GT3's get painfully reduced (for the dealership that is); I love my ancient garbage, but I'm a car guy and a "cheap" GT3 is not to be ignored.

Edit: We test drove a Sorento hybrid at our local dealer, same situation as with the Highlander honestly; we were ready to place an order for a PHEV as it fit into our needs/timeframe, until they told us it was a 5k markup; when we bought the PHEV SX-prestige in Queens for MSPR, I called the salesman back and explained to him that if they would have sold us one at MSRP we would have gone with them, but the markup was a deterrent; an additional 9-10% profit on a 50k MSRP is not worth the lost sales IMHO, but I don't run a car dealership, so maybe I'm missing something.

[samagon]

Originally Posted by Sid03SVT

Edit: We test drove a Sorento hybrid at our local dealer, same situation as with the Highlander honestly; we were ready to place an order for a PHEV as it fit into our needs/timeframe, until they told us it was a 5k markup; when we bought the PHEV SX-prestige in Queens for MSPR, I called the salesman back and explained to him that if they would have sold us one at MSRP we would have gone with them, but the markup was a deterrent; an additional 9-10% profit on a 50k MSRP is not worth the lost sales IMHO, but I don't run a car dealership, so maybe I'm missing something.

it's a gamble right? if you don't make their 10% they gamble someone else will.

if it's still rotting on their lot in 2 months, they will have to take 15% lower profit, just to churn.

[thill]

Originally Posted by Sid03SVT

Three things....
1.) ****e we are close to each other; I'm ~40 mins from that dealership.
2.) Hoffman auto group is massive - just about all makes; I'm confident in saying they share loss/profit as well as listings across the dealerships on a corporate level.
3.) I also wonder if they are connected to Hoffman guns or any of the other "Hoffman" run businesses throughout the state, hey maybe it's a common name, right? or maybe it's about overall portfolio performance.

I think a lot of dealers/resellers are trying to "hold" on the wrong cars, at least now that used cars are available in droves at auctions; people that "need" cars aren't interested in anything 40k+, hell I know people that aren't interested in anything 20k+, especially not luxury marques (aside from like queens, a lot of leases for 60k SUV's on 1k/mo rentals), and the people I know that are interested in luxury and/or toys (in my circle of greater New England) are self-made & cheap SOBs. The guys I know that race Vettes & Porsches bought at invoice or below, at worst at MSRP on an ordered "strippy" HP model ("base" ZO6 coupe for example).

What I do know is that I will be checking Hoffman out in ~6 months when those manual GT3's get painfully reduced (for the dealership that is); I love my ancient garbage, but I'm a car guy and a "cheap" GT3 is not to be ignored.

Edit: We test drove a Sorento hybrid at our local dealer, same situation as with the Highlander honestly; we were ready to place an order for a PHEV as it fit into our needs/timeframe, until they told us it was a 5k markup; when we bought the PHEV SX-prestige in Queens for MSPR, I called the salesman back and explained to him that if they would have sold us one at MSRP we would have gone with them, but the markup was a deterrent; an additional 9-10% profit on a 50k MSRP is not worth the lost sales IMHO, but I don't run a car dealership, so maybe I'm missing something.

Hyundai/Kia dealers in New England are the worst. I was looking into a few options but was really turned off. They had markups and also lowballed trade ins. I really don't trust their reliability with their engines and transmissions and if I'm going to pay Honda and Toyota prices I'll just buy a Honda or Toyota.

You should swing by the Hoffman Toyota/Nissan dealer here, it's cool to see so many incredible cars in one place. The manual GT3 would be a dream, but until all 3 kids are out of the house and done with college it ain't happening.

[Scooby-Doode]

Originally Posted by murrdogg24

good times ahead fellas

Yes, if you are flush with cash.

[Sid03SVT]

Originally Posted by thill

Hyundai/Kia dealers in New England are the worst. I was looking into a few options but was really turned off. They had markups and also lowballed trade ins. I really don't trust their reliability with their engines and transmissions and if I'm going to pay Honda and Toyota prices I'll just buy a Honda or Toyota.

You should swing by the Hoffman Toyota/Nissan dealer here, it's cool to see so many incredible cars in one place. The manual GT3 would be a dream, but until all 3 kids are out of the house and done with college it ain't happening.

They definitely lowballed our trade in, hence going the Carvana route to offload our previous car; 10yr/100k warranty on the ICE & EV powertrains, knowing that if that are any issues I'm probably going to have to fight with the dealer, but I keep impeccable records, even when I'm out of warranty. It's also a planetary auto instead of a CVT so I'm more comfortable with it. Hyundai Kia have come a long way since the 90's; I still trust a Toyota/Honda to last longer, but the disparity isn't as it once was.

Highland Hybrid spec'd out vs. comparable Kia Sorento Hybrid spec'd out the Kia comes out ~5k cheaper before TTR, the PHEV Sorento loaded was about the same money as the highlander hybrid we spec'd out (ignoring the ~7k combined tax credits we will get for the Sorento); at least with crossovers they are still a good deal cheaper than Honda/Toyota while being better equipped, I haven't compared/spec'd out anything else because frankly, Honda & Kia/Hyundai don't make anything I'm interested in, and outside of the Supra & GR Corolla, Toyota doesn't make anything I'm interested in either. The ioniq 6 is something I'll look into when it comes out, hopefully there is an N model or a hotter Kia version. EV6 & Ioniq 5 are CUVs, of the two the EV6 is the better looking one, but even if it was lowered, it's just a lowered CUV with CUV proportions not a hatchback as the auto-journalists keep trying to claim.

I avoid going to dealers as much as possible, if I'm looking to buy then I'll go and test drive stuff, but I don't want to waste anyone's time, or have my time wasted by a salesperson, would be cool to check out a lot of fun cars, but I don't have time anyways, kids, house, job, etc.

[4S-TURBO]

c.r.e.a.m.

[SubaDuba420]

Survey finds average U.S. car buyer willing to pay 37% over MSRP
Thankfully, people regain their senses when it's time to actually write checks
https://www.autoblog.com/2022/11/01/...ent-over-msrp/

A blog post intended to help car shoppers get the most for their trade-in has turned into an indictment of how badly some car shoppers are shooting themselves — and everyone else, really — in their own wallets, at least hypothetically. Quantrell Auto Group of Lexington, Kentucky published a post called "Car Compromise," the piece trying to help shoppers get the most for their vehicles when selling them to dealers. The article started with results from an August survey of 3,361 car buyers from every state in the union who were asked if they were driving a vehicle they liked, and if not, how much over MSRP they'd pay to get the vehicle they really wanted. The results are wild. Averaged across all 50 states, buyers are willing to pay 37% over MSRP for the car they've been trying to bring home. On a state-by-state basis, Rhode Island residents were only willing to give the dealer an 11% bonus, Idahoans were hungry enough to unload 71% over MSRP.

We can't find any obvious correlation between the two data points, either. Rhode Island was joined by North Dakota, South Dakota, and West Virginia in the 11% over MSRP camp. Yet while 57% of Rhodies and North Dakotans reported being unhappy with what they're driving, and 50% of West Virginians didn't like their daily drivers, only 22% of South Dakotans were looking to get out of their vehicles. So a lot more displeased drivers in the first three states, all as tight fisted as South Dakotans about paying premiums. Alaska takes the prize for discontent, 80% of respondents wishing they were behind the wheel of something else, that population willing to go 31% over MSRP for their dream ride. Idaho was nearly the opposite, with just 36% of respondents looking to switch, that smallish group of Big Bank Hanks unafraid to wire big sums over sticker.

Even regionally, the states show some striking differences and similarities. The 44% of unhappy Ohio respondents would pay 28% over MSRP, while 40% of unhappy Kentuckians would pay 31% over MSRP. In the next state over, 75% of Indianans want another car but they'd pay less over MSRP than Ohio or Kentucky, at 27%. We feel like there are vital social studies findings in here if we just had time to figure out what they are.

The survey could be a small clue as to why average transaction prices have reached breathtaking levels. At September's ATP of $49,084, the survey's average shopper would spend an extra $18,161.08 over sticker with a 37% premium. Even if a buyer found their chosen vehicle for $30,000, paying 37% makes that a $41,100 car. Heck, even at 11% over, driving off the lot for $33,300 is just ... not pleasant.

It's merely a survey, though, and people can say they're willing to do anything over the phone. The most recent ATP data we've written about shows the average buyer paying a little more than $1,000 through nearly all of the first three quarters. In September, luxury buyers doled out up to 4% over sticker, mass-market buyers put down a little less percentage-wise, paying an average $826 over sticker. Still not the best news for car buyers, but much pleasanter than hypothetically paying for another new car to buy a new car.

[Scooby-Doode]

I'd like to see the same survey done in CA, WA, TX, FL, NC, NJ, NY, CT, MA, just to name a few.

[SubaDuba420]

The article started with results from an August survey of 3,361 car buyers from every state in the union

https://www.quantrellforlife.com/car-compromise/

[Kostamojen]

Remember thats a poll done by a dealership group, to justify their markups no less.

[n2oiroc]

I don't believe that survey at all.

[Russ_G93]

Subaru already put out a company wide bulletin that there will be no cars to be sold over MSRP and if there are dealerships out there doing so, just about anyone is allowed to call SOA to get a deal worked out (essentially pinging that dealership under Camden NJ's radar) for fair pricing for whichever particular car you are wanting. Would be pretty cool if other brands did the same.

[godfather2112]

Wish there was data on what percent or how many people took out equity from their house to buy a car. I think that number would surprise a lot of people. Would also like data sometime next summer or fall with what percent of those that bought a car from 2021-2022 who are greater than $2k upside down on their loan.

[4S-TURBO]

OMG talk about the stupidest thing you could do.