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Old 05-02-2019, 12:49 PM   #576
godfather2112
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Nice touch with the eventually

If you recall, I said Tesla will likely need to raise capital in the near future (I think I gave a 1 year time frame being end of 2019 max).

You: no they wonít

Today: we need money!!!!


Iíd also wager another cash raise is needed next year. Semi pushed back to next year, mode y next year. With Q2 and possibly Q3 expected to be a loss (they could be profitable) they simply will not have enough cash for manufacturing / assembly line. Elon should have taken the hit all at once and at a minimum, doubled the capital amount raised so that production can be expedited for Y and Semi.

Oh yeah, letís not forget about that roadster thatís supposed to happen, eventually, hopefully.

Full autonomous driving by 2020? Right.....
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Old 05-02-2019, 12:59 PM   #577
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Originally Posted by dwf137 View Post
STI limited are not in reach for most millennials. Neither are Model 3's. It's not about "wealthy" but about the age and economy that they were forced to start working in. The "millennials" that you will see driving a 40K car are mostly late gen-x to early millenials (early 80's). Basically the people who graduated college before the recession. And they're hardly defined by the typical millenial stereotypes. They grew up without tech and learned how to integrate it into their lives, and are the ones that you see walking around without staring at their phone or texting while driving.

The tesla discussion and the suburbans going to whole foods were two separate examples, mostly referring to the "organic" and "local" buzzwords previously referenced. There are plenty of Tesla's parked in the local whole-foods. Millennials take the uber to trader joes, because they can't afford a car but want to eat better food than the processed garbage at the regular box grocery store.
No word of a lie, when I describe Trader Joe's to people, I say "it's kind like whole foods, only cheaper; like a 'Whole lot less expensive foods'".

As to Gen Y (or media coined Gen Y-ney, Gen Me, and most recently Millenials) The bulk of them are still young; even if they took the optimal track from HS straight into College for a BS, didn't stay on for an MS or Doctorate, that puts them into the work force at 22-24, have to spend at least a couple years working before you buy a new car (assuming no student loan debt, which I'm willing to bet most have). So call it 26+ actually looking for a new car, hopefully they are financially responsible enough to consider living expenses and not buy a 40k depreciation machine, and instead buy something for nearly half that with low maintenance and high reliability that suits their needs (ex. corolla, civic).
Really, it's the 30+ year old professionals that can reasonably be considered to make that 40k purchase of a new TM3 or STi, and having entered the work force post-recession, are more likely to be fiscal hermit crabs.
Yes, the Biennial/Triennial $600-$900 or whatever it is for a new smartphone/pocket computer that is integrated into their every day life may seem expensive, but most boomers/Gen X-ers do that with a car/truck so can't really hold it against the Gen Y's can you? If anything they are more fiscally responsible thank previous generations.
Taking an uber frequently might seem a bad move financially, until you consider the actual cost of owning a vehicle.

As to the "phone stuffed in their face" while driving; I see boomers & older Gen X-ers doing it (estimating their ages here, never an easy task), not so much Millenials, but then again, the bulk of the drivers I see are boomers and older Gen X-ers; younger Gen X-ers & Millenials use bluetooth, assuming they have a car or at least a head unit new enough to do it.

"It's not us, it's them" has been the cry of every generation when trying to point the finger, it's the same BS with politics "it's not our party, it's theirs".
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Old 05-03-2019, 07:16 AM   #578
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This millennial just 40,000 miles in his model 3:

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Old 05-03-2019, 10:59 AM   #579
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The audacity of the fraud and fraudster in chief have reached new heights (investor call). The sheep are blissfully ignorant in their alignment with the interests scamming them - cheering as they get ****ed in the ass. And this is just the most glaring automotive example. It's everywhere, and in every industry now. Channeling George Carlin to try to laugh at it all, but it's truly sad.

Here's CNBC's take on it (complete and utter joke as always - nothing in Dickboy's pitch was in the prospectus - not mentioned - Goldman got a nice payoff for underwriting it in the way of a huge discount on the option embedded in the convert - also not mentioned - nor is Goldman's sell rating with a target of 200 while they underwrite the offering Insanity, and just the tip of the iceberg - any rational person with an avg IQ could find 100 more bullet points with a glance.)
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/elon...b-company.html
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Old 05-03-2019, 11:23 AM   #580
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Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
The audacity of the fraud and fraudster in chief have reached new heights (investor call). The sheep are blissfully ignorant in their alignment with the interests scamming them - cheering as they get ****ed in the ass. And this is just the most glaring automotive example. It's everywhere, and in every industry now. Channeling George Carlin to try to laugh at it all, but it's truly sad.

Here's CNBC's take on it (complete and utter joke as always - nothing in Dickboy's pitch was in the prospectus - not mentioned - Goldman got a nice payoff for underwriting it in the way of a huge discount on the option embedded in the convert - also not mentioned - nor is Goldman's sell rating with a target of 200 while they underwrite the offering Insanity, and just the tip of the iceberg - any rational person with an avg IQ could find 100 more bullet points with a glance.)
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/elon...b-company.html
My favorite is:

"Musk reiterated that because Teslas can be upgraded ďover-the-airĒ with new software-enabled features and functionality, they will appreciate in value, unlike nearly every other car on the market. A Tesla will be worth $150,000 to $250,000 in 3 years, he claimed. He also said that a full self-driving upgrade will increase the value of any Tesla by a half order of magnitude, or five times."

Wow... Really... In what universe does that make sense?
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Old 05-03-2019, 11:44 AM   #581
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must is a pathological liar. The only time he opens his mouth is when he needs money. Promise the world delivery far far less. PT Barnum without the class
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Old 05-03-2019, 01:28 PM   #582
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He's essentially saying a new model 3 with autonomous driving package will cost up to $250k in 3 years. Otherwise why would used be worth more than new?
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Old 05-04-2019, 12:44 AM   #583
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Originally Posted by elirentz View Post
He's essentially saying a new model 3 with autonomous driving package will cost up to $250k in 3 years. Otherwise why would used be worth more than new?
I think he means a model 3 with autonomous capability will earn enough profit to be worth 250k as a robotaxi. They're not going to increase the price to $250k obviously.

But he must really believe in this idea to cancel the buy out option on leases. I will remain very skeptical of autonomous cars happening in 3 years tho.
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Old 05-04-2019, 01:45 AM   #584
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This is either the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning. :derpcorn:
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Old 05-04-2019, 08:38 PM   #585
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They now cash to last 2 years
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Old 05-04-2019, 08:53 PM   #586
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They now cash to last 2 years
Um, no. No they donít. If they donít turn a profit by q3, they wonít have enough cash for 2 years. Letís see.

$2.5B capital raised
$700M per quarter negative cash

Assuming the rest of the year stays the same at $700M loss a quarter, that cash will be gone in 3 quarters. Weíre also not factoring in any upcoming debt payments or money needed for manufacturing of model Y and Semi which are ďpromised next year.Ē

The ONLY thing that changes the narrative is if they can become cash positive in q3 and q4. If not, itís another cash raise.

I think you might need a YouTube tutorial on profit and loss statements, cash burn, profit etc. itís simple math and you coming out saying they have enough cash for 2 years is a hopeful assumption based on 0 facts.

Elon should have gone $5B cash raise and started Y and Semi production earlier than investors expected which would cause the stock to rally hard as **** and bring in new investors.

Iím sure weíll have this discussion in a year if they arenít profitable by then.
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Old 05-04-2019, 09:27 PM   #587
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Most of the cash burn this quarter was the excessive M3 production ramp up - that should not carry forward in Q2 or Q3. It may repeat for the MY.

All this talk of complete automation etc? I'll see it when I believe it, but if I had to bet on someone doing it - it would likely be Tesla before anyone else due to the sheer data they've gathered throughout this process.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:06 AM   #588
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They had what... 10,200 cars in transit at the end of the quarter? (they had only delivered half of the quarters cars with 10 days remaining ) Assume $50k ASP, and that's 510 million they 'lost' by not delivering them by the end of the quarter. Suddenly that $700 million loss looks more like $200 million, which is still a lot, but not near as bad. And isn't necessarily going to be continued.

Of course this is assuming they can deliver those and more during this quarter
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Old 05-05-2019, 11:22 AM   #589
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Most of the cash burn this quarter was the excessive M3 production ramp up - that should not carry forward in Q2 or Q3. It may repeat for the MY.

All this talk of complete automation etc? I'll see it when I believe it, but if I had to bet on someone doing it - it would likely be Tesla before anyone else due to the sheer data they've gathered throughout this process.
4 more months and we will see exactly what the trend is on cash burn. Personally and I know Iíll be one of the few in this thread, but I simply cannot trust a word Elon says anymore and yes, there was a time not too long along where I was a big Elon fan. You mention ďproduction ramp upĒ but they didnít seem to have a problem with production during the quarter they were profitable. Demand in the United States seems to be declining and more so for the higher variant trims. If thatís true, they are going to have to sell far more quantity to make up for the loss margin. Additionally we need to see what true demand is over seas and if itís high, if Elon can deliver on those orders. If not, itís repeat.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit View Post
They had what... 10,200 cars in transit at the end of the quarter? (they had only delivered half of the quarters cars with 10 days remaining ) Assume $50k ASP, and that's 510 million they 'lost' by not delivering them by the end of the quarter. Suddenly that $700 million loss looks more like $200 million, which is still a lot, but not near as bad. And isn't necessarily going to be continued.

Of course this is assuming they can deliver those and more during this quarter
Where is the data of ASP for $50k for last quarter? Youíre also not factoring in that Tesla received $200m in tax credit payments from the government which will not be there in q3.

Again, Iím not stating what I said as fact but simply said that if they cannot turn profitable by q3, that cash burn rate partnered with 2020 goals (model y and semi) will likely result in them needing more cash in 2020. I believe they also have close to $800M in debt maturity due by November.

Again, if they would focus less on potential hit to stock price by raising capital (which the stock actually rallied after capital raise announcement) and raised significant capital ($5B) through debt and equity raises, it would give far more cushion for the company and allow them to bring the Y and Semi to market a lot faster than forecasted which would A) Cause the stock to rally hard by beating projected time line of manufacturing, B) bring in significantly more revenue and likely large sums of profit.

Tesla also cut solar panel cost by 33%. That division is and has been on a continual decline in sales. Cutting the cost by 33% wonít increase the sales as their tech is so far outdated and well behind in the market compared to competitors and will only decrease sales and profit for that division.

Tesla should sell of that burden of solar city. Itís not a cash positive piece of the business especially when you factor in the debt burden from it. Axe solar city, remove debt burden and financial drain and suddenly you have a lot more money to work with for Tesla cars.
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Old 05-05-2019, 11:25 AM   #590
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What is this $200mm tax credit business? If itís the Fed consumer EV tax credit that money never goes through TeslaÖ
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Old 05-05-2019, 06:28 PM   #591
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Bonds have an effective yield of 8.5% and stock is capped by the bond @ ~309. If you can't figure out how to pocket some money in this scenario... even little guys should be able to arb or straight trade this thing - you don't need access to the bonds.
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Old 05-06-2019, 04:55 PM   #592
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What is this $200mm tax credit business? If it’s the Fed consumer EV tax credit that money never goes through Tesla…
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.lat...outputType=amp

And no, he didn’t mention it on the earnings call. You should probably also take a listen to the investor call and tell me how positive that sounded. Eesh
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Old 05-06-2019, 06:23 PM   #593
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urhh the regulatory credits is pretty well known by any Tesla investor.

It's also relatively minimal and is very clearly defined and mentioned in their 10Q.

https://ir.tesla.com/node/19771/html
Scroll to page 37-38 or ctrl+f credits.
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Old 05-06-2019, 06:48 PM   #594
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Ah the old luddites in this thread are funny.

Go ahead and buy your last gasoline powered cars right NOW because in a few short years, they will be no more. I am making moves to pick up a V8 Land Cruiser now. It will be my forever gas pig gasoline car, and I am resigned to the fact that the car after will be full electric. The Teslas are amazing, but I am going to wait until more competition pops up and the prices come down. The electric car really should cost less than the equivalent gas car IMO.
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Old 05-06-2019, 07:30 PM   #595
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urhh the regulatory credits is pretty well known by any Tesla investor.

It's also relatively minimal and is very clearly defined and mentioned in their 10Q.

https://ir.tesla.com/node/19771/html
Scroll to page 37-38 or ctrl+f credits.
Except the fact it was significantly greater than prior quarters. Last quarter was what, $48M? Regardless, I think you’re missing the picture which is cash burn exceeding revenue and profit.
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Old 05-06-2019, 07:34 PM   #596
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Ah the old luddites in this thread are funny.

Go ahead and buy your last gasoline powered cars right NOW because in a few short years, they will be no more. I am making moves to pick up a V8 Land Cruiser now. It will be my forever gas pig gasoline car, and I am resigned to the fact that the car after will be full electric. The Teslas are amazing, but I am going to wait until more competition pops up and the prices come down. The electric car really should cost less than the equivalent gas car IMO.
A few short years? Thatís a rather unrealistic expectation. Yes, more will come online but I seriously doubt EV sales will put number gas for at least 7-10 years. 5 if youíre extremely lucky but doubt that. Hell, 10 might be too soon.
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Old 05-06-2019, 09:01 PM   #597
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Ah the old luddites in this thread are funny.

Go ahead and buy your last gasoline powered cars right NOW because in a few short years, they will be no more. I am making moves to pick up a V8 Land Cruiser now. It will be my forever gas pig gasoline car, and I am resigned to the fact that the car after will be full electric. The Teslas are amazing, but I am going to wait until more competition pops up and the prices come down. The electric car really should cost less than the equivalent gas car IMO.
Resigned?


Embrace that ****.


For a DD, no ICE can even compete (powertrain wise, same car otherwise) It's just a much better experience day to day.


I still love big stupid V8's and small sports cars etc.... Hell, the EV helps out since every moron in a Mustang or Camaro has to let me know how inferior I am. I benefit by hearing every exhaust/engine combo at full tilt
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Old 05-07-2019, 06:37 PM   #598
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Except the fact it was significantly greater than prior quarters. Last quarter was what, $48M? Regardless, I think youíre missing the picture which is cash burn exceeding revenue and profit.
Quote:
Our revenue from non-ZEV regulatory credits generally follows our production and delivery trends as we have long-term contracts with existing customers for the sale of these credits. However, as we do not have long-term contracts for ZEV credit sales, revenue from sale of ZEV credits fluctuate by quarter depending on when a contract is executed with a buyer. For example, our revenue from ZEV credit sales in the three months ended December 31, 2017 was $179.1 million while it was $0.8 million in the three months ended December 31, 2018.
So.. this is a bit of a red herring.

And you are absolutely correct - cash burn is high. It's not exceeding revenue... c'mon man. Understanding Cash Flow is core to what I do.

Just go to page that has their Cash Flow. You'll see that they had (809)mm from inventory.
This is very very very typical of any company that has to build up inventory when ramping up a new line.

that being said, I'm surprised at how well they kept that relatively flat in 2H18. (322) in Q1, (733) in Q2, (55) in Q3 and actually 70mm in Q4.
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Old 05-07-2019, 06:44 PM   #599
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A few short years? That’s a rather unrealistic expectation. Yes, more will come online but I seriously doubt EV sales will put number gas for at least 7-10 years. 5 if you’re extremely lucky but doubt that. Hell, 10 might be too soon.
I would argue that there is literally no way to know how long before EV sales come close to on-par with gassers. With current ICE and EV technology, we're looking at incremental year-over-year changes. With EV infrastructure, we're looking at minor improvements year-over-year.

For EV to take off, we need a modest change in chemistry, followed by supporting tech and infrastructure before the vast majority of us would even consider switching to EV.

As-is, our family will definitely consider replacing one of our two vehicles with an EV, since my commute is perfect for one; however, we're not even close to the point where I'd consider replacing BOTH of our vehicles with EV. There aren't even any viable hybrid options for what we want that make economical/emotional sense for us right now.

I think another very important fact, is that we're modest techies, taking pleasure in owning gizmos, but never with very much risk involved; never blazing new tech trails... My family and friends? Most barely know how to use their smart phones, very few own a smart device or have enabled smart features in their homes, and EV??? EV isn't even on their radar!

Conclusions: several years = pipe dream; 7-10 years = withdrawal dreams from your previous pipe addiction. A little more lucid, but not much more realistic.
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Old 05-07-2019, 06:46 PM   #600
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A few short years? Thatís a rather unrealistic expectation. Yes, more will come online but I seriously doubt EV sales will put number gas for at least 7-10 years. 5 if youíre extremely lucky but doubt that. Hell, 10 might be too soon.
This... I think 10 is a fair number when EV > ICE.

Right now Pure EVs are less than 1% of all vehicles sold in NA.
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