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Old 08-01-2020, 01:46 PM   #1
Tvekelectric
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Default Speculation about why the next gen STI was delayed till 2022 at the earliest.

So I saw a video by Matt Maran Motoring a few weeks ago about Subaru announcing it was pushing back the release of the next gen WRX/STI by at least a year due to complications.

Now while I know coronavirus has screwed a lot up I don't think it was the main reason they delayed but a perfect excuse to give themselves another year of development and decisions and here is why I think there is going to be a massive change in the STI.

Now we know the WRX/STI are only 5% of sales which is why they have left the same motor in the STI for 20 years because it doesn't make financial sense for them to spend a ton of money for that low of return and I understand and agree with that decision. However moving forward they realize they are starting to fall behind again compared to the competition but don't want to kill off their icon car. So what is the fix? Put the same motor from their profitable SUV lineup into the STI with upgrades to the internals obviously but you get to double dip on profitability. Now I think that is the right decision and I think that was decided on before corona virus happens so why the delay.

Here is my theory and at this point speculation. I think they are trying to figure out what transmission they want to put in the STI. They have a few options.

Option 1 is do a manual which is fine and easy but what about the WRX. They are killing the 2.0 as they are stopping the BRZ soon so that would mean they would be manufacturing a motor for 1 version of 1 car which makes no sense and the same would apply to the transmission. The WRX is going to have the 2.4 turbo as well and they would have to develop a stand alone transmission for the car as an automatic. This is counter productive to their goal of simplifying production runs and increasing profitability on a low volume car but it is an option. So to recap option 1 (Manual STI, New Automatic WRX)

Option 2 is to due a duel clutch set up in the STI and WRX. After how successful chevy was this year at the corvette c8 it has to be in their minds because it lets you only have one transmission to deal with and moving forward it future proofs large HP increases as the next gen STI ages.

Option 3 and this is where it could get spicy. I could see a world were Subaru put a lot of R and D and creates the highest rated CVT transmission in the world. This would allow the STI and WRX to use the same engine and transmission and basically just make the car interchangeable. Now not only does it low production cost for this car they would be able to use the higher HP CVT on their SUV lineup as they start needing more HP and torque. Now obviously the only problem with this option is the hate the community will have two an automatic STI and I'm sure is why this wouldn't be the default option. But it is definitely the most long term and cost effective option for Subaru.

Now personally I think they will be going with the duel clutch option and then the WRX and the rest of their cars will be getting a higher HP rated CVT. I would guess capable of 500 HP as the current cvt is capable of around 350.

As an FYI I know they could decide to do a Manuel STI and WRX but I don't see them ever doing that because it would just remove customers with 0 gain when they could just use the same transmission such as a duel clutch and retain 100% of their current buyers.

Anyway that's my theory on why the next gen STI really got delayed. So what options would you prefer they go with?
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:26 PM   #2
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Isnt the manual take rate pretty high for the wrx/sti? Is there no auto transmission they can borrow from other manufactures and implement with boxer to be cost efficient?
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:33 PM   #3
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According to Jalopy, it's about 90% manual vs. 10% CVT. Although a word of caution, I do believe that they lump the WRX and STi into one model for these numbers, which obviously skews the numbers a bit as STi is manual only. If I had to guess, I'd say maybe 80/20 is closer for the WRX.

https://jalopnik.com/u-s-buyers-stil...-th-1834945061

Also, this probably could have been posted in the ongoing thread we already have about the next-gen.
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:34 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Tvekelectric View Post
As an FYI I know they could decide to do a Manuel STI and WRX but I don't see them ever doing that because it would just remove customers with 0 gain when they could just use the same transmission such as a duel clutch and retain 100% of their current buyers.

STI are manual only. People buy it because it is manual. If I wanted anything else in a 4 door AWD car, I'd buy an S3, Golf R, new TSX or TL or whatever they call it. There are more than enough AWD 4 door autos out there to choose from.
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:42 PM   #5
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my preference of tranny is 6-speed automatic version of the existing 6-speed manual or dual clutch for the STI and wrx. the 2.4dit in the ascent, legacy and Outback also deserve a dct transmission. the cvt is fine for the 2.5 engines
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:44 PM   #6
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STI are manual only. People buy it because it is manual. If I wanted anything else in a 4 door AWD car, I'd buy an S3, Golf R, new TSX or TL or whatever they call it. There are more than enough AWD 4 door autos out there to choose from.
Yeah I think it leans heavily towards that but at the same time they are going to want to cut costs so I think based on what I am seeing the duel clutch automatic would be the option that would most favor the buyers just like what chevy ended up doing with the c8 so you retain both automatic and manual buyers. I guess I am just curious if they take it one set farther so they can just use the same CVT on the WRX/STI, SUV's and Crossovers they produce.
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Old 08-01-2020, 03:01 PM   #7
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maybe they can 3d print a porche pdk trans
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Old 08-01-2020, 04:12 PM   #8
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The next iteration of HTCVT will be the one.
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Old 08-01-2020, 08:25 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tvekelectric View Post
Yeah I think it leans heavily towards that but at the same time they are going to want to cut costs so I think based on what I am seeing the duel clutch automatic would be the option that would most favor the buyers just like what chevy ended up doing with the c8 so you retain both automatic and manual buyers. I guess I am just curious if they take it one set farther so they can just use the same CVT on the WRX/STI, SUV's and Crossovers they produce.
Developing something they donít have (dual clutch) is not a cost savings though. If they want to save costs, which Iím sure they do, they will carry over the manual trannys (with some probable tweaking), especially the STIís which is already strong and can support the rumoured power bump. They may want to spend time developing less costly things like fancier diffs.

Also, the Ascent has the 2.4 DIT being used and already makes current WRX-level hp and torque... they can carry over that too for the auto WRX and just strengthen it with a sportier programming if it will get a power bump. I canít see people wanting any form of a CVT in an STI tbh.

Basically the WRX and STI are successful because of the manual, and a CVT (though not exactly the most awesome auto), exists for those who want auto. Could they do a dual clutch? Sure... but I doubt it. They have everything they need as a good starting point already. BUT I will be the first to say I was wrong if it magically makes an appearance

Last edited by littledrummerboy; 08-01-2020 at 08:38 PM.
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:21 PM   #10
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Nighthawk, you posing under another account now?

100% customer retention No manual no sale. F your DSG or any automatic. Take it and cram it right up your ass
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:30 PM   #11
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So I went out and bought an S3 because I have a kid and live in the city and blah blah whatever. I was like "oh its auto but everyone says it has a great transmission and it is still pretty quick, it'll be roaring fun". False. Automatics are boring as sin. I took it backroading a handful of times and it was the least rewarding experience ever. People that buy automatics either don't like cars or don't like driving. As the owner of what should be a fun automatic, I can now say that with certainty. If the STI is auto only I hope they sell zero. and that subaru goes out of business. and fuji heavy HQ gets hit with a meteor when no one is in the building.
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Old 08-01-2020, 10:18 PM   #12
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subaru? dual clutch? why even waste the energy firing synapses? it'll never happen.
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Old 08-01-2020, 10:45 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevpotts View Post
So I went out and bought an S3 because I have a kid and live in the city and blah blah whatever. I was like "oh its auto but everyone says it has a great transmission and it is still pretty quick, it'll be roaring fun". False. Automatics are boring as sin. I took it backroading a handful of times and it was the least rewarding experience ever. People that buy automatics either don't like cars or don't like driving. As the owner of what should be a fun automatic, I can now say that with certainty. If the STI is auto only I hope they sell zero. and that subaru goes out of business. and fuji heavy HQ gets hit with a meteor when no one is in the building.
Iím with you
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Old 08-01-2020, 10:54 PM   #14
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So I went out and bought an S3 because I have a kid and live in the city and blah blah whatever. I was like "oh its auto but everyone says it has a great transmission and it is still pretty quick, it'll be roaring fun". False. Automatics are boring as sin. I took it backroading a handful of times and it was the least rewarding experience ever. People that buy automatics either don't like cars or don't like driving. As the owner of what should be a fun automatic, I can now say that with certainty. If the STI is auto only I hope they sell zero. and that subaru goes out of business. and fuji heavy HQ gets hit with a meteor when no one is in the building.
I bought mine just for the transmission and because there were no Golf R's available. I kind of have to agree with your generalization. I don't care about driving engagement that much anymore, but I cared a lot when I owned STi's.
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:07 AM   #15
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maybe they can 3d print a porche pdk trans
If people keep copying their trans I feel like they have to get mad at some point haha.
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Old 08-02-2020, 07:12 AM   #16
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I think that some sort of auto option might be why Subaru is delaying this new release, whether a worthy one for the STI or a reworked one for the WRX. But I also think a manual will be offered regardless, I truly donít believe there will be a compromise on that. By the way, an auto in the STI is nothing new, Iím pretty sure itís been offered from the factory before at least in Japan, Iíve seen videos of it. Anyway, I would say that itís not just the tranny, they must be working on a lot of other things and trying to get things right. I truly hope that when this next gen is revealed Subaru kicks out the ballpark like Ford with the Bronco.
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Old 08-02-2020, 07:21 AM   #17
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I've been waiting 16+ years for an STI with a DCT and still won't see one. I just don't see Subaru investing in a DCT they won't put in any other model.

My prediction is WRX gets the CVT and STI remains manual.
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:53 AM   #18
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Alternate theory - Subaru is buying time while they decide if there actually will be a next generation Impreza WRX STI. The WRX soldiers on as-is for a while and the USDM WRX STI gets a dirt nap. Assuming the next gen BRZ sees the light of day, we could get a STI badged BRZ with 105% more down force, chassis tweaks, special paint and no extra power above and beyond the base model.
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:59 AM   #19
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Alternate theory - Subaru is buying time while they decide if there actually will be a next generation Impreza WRX STI. The WRX soldiers on as-is for a while and the USDM WRX STI gets a dirt nap. Assuming the next gen BRZ sees the light of day, we could get a STI badged BRZ with 105% more down force, chassis tweaks, special paint and no extra power above and beyond the base model.
Yep. Ths is my theory as well.

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Old 08-02-2020, 09:10 AM   #20
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I don't care about driving engagement that much anymore, but I cared a lot when I owned STi's.
What do you mean by that? Does the S3 satisfy enough your not concerned about driver engagement. I'm asking because I'm looking at moving on from the STI and want to make sure I'm doing the right thing.
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Old 08-02-2020, 09:16 AM   #21
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Quote:
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So I went out and bought an S3 because I have a kid and live in the city and blah blah whatever. I was like "oh its auto but everyone says it has a great transmission and it is still pretty quick, it'll be roaring fun". False. Automatics are boring as sin. I took it backroading a handful of times and it was the least rewarding experience ever. People that buy automatics either don't like cars or don't like driving. As the owner of what should be a fun automatic, I can now say that with certainty. If the STI is auto only I hope they sell zero. and that subaru goes out of business. and fuji heavy HQ gets hit with a meteor when no one is in the building.
What about DD, do you prefer the Automatic S3 over the 6 sp STI?

Here is my Alternate Alternate theory that is based on absolutely nothing:

Subaru Kills the WRX and only offers the STI.

They only have to invest in a single platform which should save them money while keeping their flagship performance vehicle intact.
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Old 08-02-2020, 10:31 AM   #22
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Alternate theory - Subaru is buying time while they decide if there actually will be a next generation Impreza WRX STI. The WRX soldiers on as-is for a while and the USDM WRX STI gets a dirt nap. Assuming the next gen BRZ sees the light of day, we could get a STI badged BRZ with 105% more down force, chassis tweaks, special paint and no extra power above and beyond the base model.
I really donít know where you people dream this stuff up.

The delay is the pandemic, period. Why the F would Subaru move forward with bringing in the STi right now when so many people are out of work? Do you understand unemployment or economics? Once the US government, and the US is Subaruís largest market, stops printing money to keep things afloat, the economy is going to bomb out. So you expect Booby to say meh we donít care, we are going to spend money building this car so it canít sit and people canít afford it? High end cars, 50k, 100k, etc, will solider on because the high end market of homes, cars, is relatively consistent. The working man/woman cars, they take the big hits hence the delay.

I think Subaru learned during the housing collapse in 2008 when the economy tanked and they had to discount STiís thousands of dollars (I bought one in 2008) to even move them. That means Subaru and their dealer network took losses to move units. It has little to do with being a hatch and mostly due to the economy. I think they learned their lesson and are hitting pause for this reason alone. They, like the entire damn world, are waiting to see what happens with Rona and are being conservative as they should.
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Old 08-02-2020, 10:43 AM   #23
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What about DD, do you prefer the Automatic S3 over the 6 sp STI?

Here is my Alternate Alternate theory that is based on absolutely nothing:

Subaru Kills the WRX and only offers the STI.

They only have to invest in a single platform which should save them money while keeping their flagship performance vehicle intact.
For a DD, I love that it is automatic. Like I said, I live in the city and have a bumper to bumper commute in and out every day (when life is normal). And my wife can drive it so I don't have to back it out of the driveway so she can get her car. But it simply is not fun. Once I have the space I will sell it, get a POS civic and a fun weekend car that is extremely manual. I now firmly believe you can't have both, it can be automatic OR it can be fun. I tried to have both, I flew too close to the sun.
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:20 PM   #24
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I've been waiting 16+ years for an STI with a DCT and still won't see one. I just don't see Subaru investing in a DCT they won't put in any other model.

My prediction is WRX gets the CVT and STI remains manual.
why invest in building their own, when they can just partner or borrow from another manufacture and modify for their own use to keep r&d cost way down.
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:38 PM   #25
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I really donít know where you people dream this stuff up.



The delay is the pandemic, period. Why the F would Subaru move forward with bringing in the STi right now when so many people are out of work? Do you understand unemployment or economics? Once the US government, and the US is Subaruís largest market, stops printing money to keep things afloat, the economy is going to bomb out. So you expect Booby to say meh we donít care, we are going to spend money building this car so it canít sit and people canít afford it? High end cars, 50k, 100k, etc, will solider on because the high end market of homes, cars, is relatively consistent. The working man/woman cars, they take the big hits hence the delay.



I think Subaru learned during the housing collapse in 2008 when the economy tanked and they had to discount STiís thousands of dollars (I bought one in 2008) to even move them. That means Subaru and their dealer network took losses to move units. It has little to do with being a hatch and mostly due to the economy. I think they learned their lesson and are hitting pause for this reason alone. They, like the entire damn world, are waiting to see what happens with Rona and are being conservative as they should.


Agree with this much more than anything else.
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