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Old 02-24-2021, 03:53 PM   #3151
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You're not understanding completely. Their solar business is ****ing dog **** and loses the company money. Their panels are legitimately near dead last in terms of efficiency. Its a financial suck to the business. It is still factored into the earnings because it drags down overall profitability. Power wall has barely any business as well. Autonomy is already factored into the valuation as its part of the car business, its not a stand alone segment within the company as they go hand in hand.

Its an auto company and should be closer inline with other autos. Yes, as already stated it deserves a higher multiple than traditional autos but the multiple it trades at is just unwarranted and beyond the means of any valuation fundamentals.
In the Q4 results Tesla had an increase of 59% in Solar deployment year to date and almost a 200% increase in energy storage under the same time period. Sure the Tesla/Panasonic are 3% less efficient than SunPower panels but what is the difference in cost including system installation? Also, I think one or two of Tesla analyst includes autonomy on their price targets so no autonomy is not currently a factor in their evaluation's.
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Old 02-24-2021, 08:38 PM   #3152
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Meh, I keep thinking that the current administration will invigorate TESLA stocks by extending the cut off for TAX rebates on EV's

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Old 02-25-2021, 09:51 AM   #3153
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Meh, I keep thinking that the current administration will invigorate TESLA stocks by extending the cut off for TAX rebates on EV's

Blit
There's a bill floating around to extend the EV credit to $7k up to 600k cars, starting when the bill is effective. So any cars sold before (but after 200k) won't be included.
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Old 02-25-2021, 10:26 AM   #3154
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so far it's just a hype train on EV forums. we'll see what happens. Don't count your rebate chickens before they hatch.
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Old 02-25-2021, 12:17 PM   #3155
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Originally Posted by juanmedina View Post
In the Q4 results Tesla had an increase of 59% in Solar deployment year to date and almost a 200% increase in energy storage under the same time period. Sure the Tesla/Panasonic are 3% less efficient than SunPower panels but what is the difference in cost including system installation? Also, I think one or two of Tesla analyst includes autonomy on their price targets so no autonomy is not currently a factor in their evaluation's.
Without resorting to google, what is the basic formula for arriving at a companies valuation. I.E what is the formula to arrive at Teslas $647B market valuation. I'll give you a basic lay out and fill in for X and Y

X*Y=$674B

what are X and Y?
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Old 02-25-2021, 01:21 PM   #3156
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X = Elon

Y = Elon disciples
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Old 02-25-2021, 04:00 PM   #3157
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Without resorting to google, what is the basic formula for arriving at a companies valuation. I.E what is the formula to arrive at Teslas $647B market valuation. I'll give you a basic lay out and fill in for X and Y

X*Y=$674B

what are X and Y?
I will answer your post unlike you. PEG of Tesla is currently 1.3 lower ones are FB and Google at 1.1 everything else ex AMZN, NLFX, NVDA is higher than Tesla's some way higher. Some might say that TSLA still cheap.

You missed the train just like Enick because you are thinking to much about current evaluations etc. TSLA still has much much growth in it and will continue to have many more multiples compare to other auto companies "because it is not" whether you like or not.
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Old 02-25-2021, 04:42 PM   #3158
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x = gyna
y= geuropa
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Old 02-25-2021, 05:08 PM   #3159
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I will answer your post unlike you. PEG of Tesla is currently 1.3 lower ones are FB and Google at 1.1 everything else ex AMZN, NLFX, NVDA is higher than Tesla's some way higher. Some might say that TSLA still cheap.

You missed the train just like Enick because you are thinking to much about current evaluations etc. TSLA still has much much growth in it and will continue to have many more multiples compare to other auto companies "because it is not" whether you like or not.
A: I own Tesla stock
B: You clearly googled the PEG ratio yet Iím certain you couldnít explain it without googling it
C: The fact you couldnít answer my question is telling.

Go look at itís trading multiple and compare that with any big tech which dwarfes them in profit margin and youíll realize it grossly out of line. If I remember correctly, itís trading at damn beer 200x forward earnings. Thatís not slightly above fundamentals, itís out of the god damn universe in relation to anything realistic.

But Iíd love to hear how you think a company with a 20% gross margin and significantly less revenue than letís say, Apple. Who has roughly 40% gross margin and does nearly the double of Teslaís full year earnings in just 1 quarter.
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Old 02-25-2021, 05:20 PM   #3160
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I don't see the point of the argument other than to check the Tesla fanboy. It happens all over the internet. Like a fun game.

I miss E nick.
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Old 02-25-2021, 05:41 PM   #3161
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People are buying the stock at it's current levels of valuation. Tesla stock is so far removed from actual ownership in a company. But that's cool. If you want to buy into the hype, do it. Just be upfront with yourself about it.
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Old 02-25-2021, 05:44 PM   #3162
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Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
A: I own Tesla stock
B: You clearly googled the PEG ratio yet I'm certain you couldn't explain it without googling it
C: The fact you couldn't answer my question is telling.

Go look at it's trading multiple and compare that with any big tech which dwarfes them in profit margin and you'll realize it grossly out of line. If I remember correctly, it's trading at damn beer 200x forward earnings. That's not slightly above fundamentals, it's out of the god damn universe in relation to anything realistic.

But I'd love to hear how you think a company with a 20% gross margin and significantly less revenue than let's say, Apple. Who has roughly 40% gross margin and does nearly the double of Tesla's full year earnings in just 1 quarter.
as always I learn absolutely nothing from you. How many thousands of shares do you have?

and now you ignore completely the PEG ratio when it tells the whole story for a high growth company evaluation such a Tesla. I can guarantee you that I have taken more economy and accounting courses that you ever had. Of course you own Tesla is part of your Index fund S&P 500 401k . Is funny how you always think you are so smart but you been so wrong. In a fews year or maybe this year the SP will be in the thousands...but you know "the evaluation is too rich" and that somehow makes you money.

\/

Forbes told me....

You knows of all the firms that have an analyst on Tesla there is 72% of them that have a hold or buy rating. Only someone not very smart would fold/sell their shares like they suggest.

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Old 02-25-2021, 05:55 PM   #3163
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Yes, Tesla Stock Really Is Overvalued

Investors in iconic electric vehicle company Tesla TSLA -8.1% should take heed: The stock is overvalued.

And its not just a little pricey. The odds are against the company's financials being sufficient to justify the recent price.

Tesla: Great Company, Too Pricey

While Elon Musk's company has managed to pull off the improbable - supercharging the longstanding dream of making electric vehicles available to the mass market - the math behind justifying the current stock price makes little sense.

As a recap, the stock is up 410% in the year through Friday, versus a gain of 16% for the S&P 500, according to data from Yahoo. Neither figure includes dividends. That stellar performance alone doesn't make the stock overvalued.

What does are at least two things.

Stratospheric P/E

The first is Tesla's forward looking price-earnings ratio, which is now at 200, according to Morningstar. Put simply, the price of the stock is currently trading at 200 times next year's profits.

To put that in context, some investors worry that the S&P 500 is overvalued because its forward P/E is around 25, far above historic norms. If the market as a whole is overvalued then surely a stock trading at almost 10 times higher (on a P/E basis) is overvalued?

Maybe, maybe not. The high P/E alone isn't enough to damn the stock as overvalued.

If the growth of the profits is fast enough then theoretically the stock could be fairly valued even with a mega-high P/E. However, the higher the P/E is above what is normal the more difficult it is to justify.

In essence, it comes down to a simple question: Is it probable for the profits of Tesla to grow enough to justify its current price? If it isn't, then the stock is too pricey.

Bring On The Actuaries

Friday I spoke with Julian Koski, chief investment officer at New Age Alpha, Westchester NY. He explained that his company looked at the most recent 16 quarters of Tesla's financial statements and then tried to figure out whether the company would likely make enough money to justify its lofty price.

Koski and his team use actuarial methods to calculate the odds that a company will make the profits that investors are expecting. For those who don't know, actuaries are super mathematicians who try to work out the probabilities of events happening in the future.

Odds Against Tesla Making Enough Money To Satisfy Investors

In this case, the answer was that Tesla was 55% likely to fail to meet the required profit level, Koski says. Or put another way, more likely than not the company will fail to make as much money as investors are expecting.

Anyone who has played cards knows that it is prudent to fold your hand when the odds are against you. And for investors in Tesla, the time to fold may have come.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonco...h=55d2c19b4262
.. .. . . .
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Old 02-26-2021, 01:54 AM   #3164
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I don't see the point of the argument other than to check the Tesla fanboy. It happens all over the internet. Like a fun game.

I miss E nick.
We were talking bikes via PM. I was helping him pick out stuff. He had bought one the last we talked and was looking at adding a 2nd. My God, I hope nothing happened man.
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Old 02-26-2021, 07:09 AM   #3165
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There's a bill floating around to extend the EV credit to $7k up to 600k cars, starting when the bill is effective. So any cars sold before (but after 200k) won't be included.
Pelosi will make out like a bandit... So it will happen.

Blitz
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Old 02-26-2021, 09:37 AM   #3166
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The valuation of Tesla is whatever people are willing to pay for it, just like anything else. Textbook stock pricing theory (value of stock = value of future earnings) vs textbook law of demand (the more people want something, the higher the price will go).
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Old 03-03-2021, 10:22 AM   #3167
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Waymo vs FSD on the same destination; zero disengagements on both. "Waymo took 8 minutes. FSD took 5 minutes and 12 seconds."

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Old 03-03-2021, 12:21 PM   #3168
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Waymo vs FSD on the same destination; zero disengagements on both. "Waymo took 8 minutes. FSD took 5 minutes and 12 seconds."

https://youtu.be/sibfRCgMiFE
It looked like the Waymo went through a residential area while the Tesla mostly took highways.

At the moment, I prefer Cameras (Tesla, Subaru) to LiDAR. The LiDAR system needs pre-mapped information, while the Camera system is looking and thinking.
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Old 03-07-2021, 02:15 PM   #3169
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Default Tesla Model 2

I hadn't heard about the Model 2 until yesterday.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-...ust-for-tesla/

If my plans for getting a garaged condo work out in a year or so then I could see myself in a Tesla Model 2 AWD Performance hatch if Subaru doesn't offer a compelling STI.
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Old 03-08-2021, 07:13 AM   #3170
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Elon tweeted that the Full Self Driving beta will be available to anyone (who already bought FSD) with a "download FSD Beta" button in the car in less than two weeks.

We'll see how it goes. If that goes to the masses... man I don't know, could be some dangerous stuff happening. I myself want it, even though I'll likely use it twice and then turn it off because it's frustrating, just like Smart Summon.
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Old 03-08-2021, 07:43 AM   #3171
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Elon tweeted that the Full Self Driving beta will be available to anyone (who already bought FSD) with a "download FSD Beta" button in the car in less than two weeks.

We'll see how it goes. If that goes to the masses... man I don't know, could be some dangerous stuff happening. I myself want it, even though I'll likely use it twice and then turn it off because it's frustrating, just like Smart Summon.
I actually used Smart Summon the other day and yeah it was kind buggy. I was at Lowes and it started raining really hard I was able to summon the car all the way to entrance, it was awesome I barely got wet.

I hope I can download FSD Beta. You can submit a request through the early access program; they want to see your driving history .
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Old 03-08-2021, 09:37 AM   #3172
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I hadn't heard about the Model 2 until yesterday.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-...ust-for-tesla/

If my plans for getting a garaged condo work out in a year or so then I could see myself in a Tesla Model 2 AWD Performance hatch if Subaru doesn't offer a compelling STI.
It may never come here. It's really for China/Europe.
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Old 03-08-2021, 11:02 AM   #3173
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The Model 2 is much more compelling option in China as there are a lot of cheap EV's in that market.
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Old 03-23-2021, 04:37 PM   #3174
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I want the Model S Plaid so bad. I told my wife If I can collect 50k by selling calls I am getting one.



Last edited by juanmedina; 03-23-2021 at 10:19 PM.
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Old 03-23-2021, 05:36 PM   #3175
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Goddamn, some people have no F***** clue how an HUD works

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