Welcome to the North American Subaru Impreza Owners Club Thursday January 28, 2021
Home Forums Images WikiNASIOC Products Store Modifications Upgrade Garage
NASIOC
Go Back   NASIOC > NASIOC General > News & Rumors > Non-Subaru News & Rumors

Welcome to NASIOC - The world's largest online community for Subaru enthusiasts!
Welcome to the NASIOC.com Subaru forum.

You are currently viewing our forum as a guest, which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our community, free of charge, you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is free, fast and simple, so please join our community today!

If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us.







* As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. 
* Registered users of the site do not see these ads. 
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-07-2019, 08:00 PM   #601
Indocti Discant
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 138000
Join Date: Jan 2007
Chapter/Region: BAIC
Location: et ament meminisse periti
Vehicle:
Buy Nate's coffee
west coast roasting

Default

Also..

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04...isons-updated/

However, I donno if I think a Model3 is a better car than an Accord. Some areas - by an absolute mile. But otherwise - erh I donno.

Did make me strongly consider getting rid of my 2016 Touring - but I street park so can't charge.
* Registered users of the site do not see these ads.
Indocti Discant is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
* Registered users of the site do not see these ads.
Old 05-07-2019, 09:04 PM   #602
E. Nick
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 8489
Join Date: Jul 2001
Chapter/Region: BAIC
Location: Atherton, CA
Vehicle:
2005 Carrera GT
Guards

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Indocti Discant View Post
Just go to page that has their Cash Flow. You'll see that they had (809)mm from inventory.
This is very very very typical of any company that has to build up inventory when ramping up a new line.

that being said, I'm surprised at how well they kept that relatively flat in 2H18. (322) in Q1, (733) in Q2, (55) in Q3 and actually 70mm in Q4.
Standardized costs (when they're wrong) can hide losses in the inventory number - last year's outperformance - unwinding it now (underperformance). We used to call that cookin' the books, now it's called non-GAAP acctg
E. Nick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2019, 09:22 PM   #603
godfather2112
Papi Chulo
Moderator
 
Member#: 53794
Join Date: Jan 2004
Chapter/Region: RMIC
Location: Boner kill city
Vehicle:
... 2017 BMW M2
2017 F-150

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gathermewool View Post
I would argue that there is literally no way to know how long before EV sales come close to on-par with gassers. With current ICE and EV technology, we're looking at incremental year-over-year changes. With EV infrastructure, we're looking at minor improvements year-over-year.

For EV to take off, we need a modest change in chemistry, followed by supporting tech and infrastructure before the vast majority of us would even consider switching to EV.

As-is, our family will definitely consider replacing one of our two vehicles with an EV, since my commute is perfect for one; however, we're not even close to the point where I'd consider replacing BOTH of our vehicles with EV. There aren't even any viable hybrid options for what we want that make economical/emotional sense for us right now.

I think another very important fact, is that we're modest techies, taking pleasure in owning gizmos, but never with very much risk involved; never blazing new tech trails... My family and friends? Most barely know how to use their smart phones, very few own a smart device or have enabled smart features in their homes, and EV??? EV isn't even on their radar!

Conclusions: several years = pipe dream; 7-10 years = withdrawal dreams from your previous pipe addiction. A little more lucid, but not much more realistic.
I think you missed the point that EV sales will not grossly out number or even come close to ICE sales within a few years.
godfather2112 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2019, 09:49 PM   #604
gathermewool
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 143624
Join Date: Mar 2007
Chapter/Region: NESIC
Location: New England
Vehicle:
14 FXTT (hers)
15 Legacy 2.5i Prem (his)

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
I think you missed the point that EV sales will not grossly out number or even come close to ICE sales within a few years.
My comment was mostly tangential, but still partially in context.
gathermewool is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 12:37 PM   #605
scott_gunn
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 4203
Join Date: Feb 2001
Chapter/Region: South East
Location: Palm Harbor, FL
Vehicle:
2009 WRX 5spd hatch
Platinum Silver Metallic

Default

As gathermewool points out - EVs make a ton of sense as one or more of the cars in a 2+ car household that keeps one gas car for the occasional really long trip.

Once these households start having more and more EVs, the infrastructure will follow.
scott_gunn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 01:25 PM   #606
hooziewhatsit
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 143938
Join Date: Mar 2007
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Oregon
Default

The occasional long trip... like going 1000 miles from New Jersey to Florida in a single day?

hooziewhatsit is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 01:57 PM   #607
n2oiroc
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 141952
Join Date: Feb 2007
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: milwaukee'ish
Vehicle:
20 Audi S4

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit View Post
The occasional long trip... like going 1000 miles from New Jersey to Florida in a single day?

1000 Miles in a Tesla Model 3 in 1 day - YouTube
how many additional miles and hours were added on to make sure he had access to superchargers?
n2oiroc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 02:11 PM   #608
Indocti Discant
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 138000
Join Date: Jan 2007
Chapter/Region: BAIC
Location: et ament meminisse periti
Vehicle:
Buy Nate's coffee
west coast roasting

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
Standardized costs (when they're wrong) can hide losses in the inventory number - last year's outperformance - unwinding it now (underperformance). We used to call that cookin' the books, now it's called non-GAAP acctg
Agreed - do you remember Collins and Aikman?

and help me out here - what's the suggested trade that you referred to on the last page - my brain is extremely rusty.

The Tsla issue was oversubscribed. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1SE1BM
Indocti Discant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 02:30 PM   #609
hooziewhatsit
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 143938
Join Date: Mar 2007
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Oregon
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by n2oiroc View Post
how many additional miles and hours were added on to make sure he had access to superchargers?
The description lists all the distances and stops. Basically he drove for 2-2.5 hours, then stopped for 20 minutes to charge a bit.

Which is about the timing we do on longer trips just to hit the bathroom and stretch our legs.

And yea, you need to plan ahead slightly more than with an ICE... early adopter issues. But it doesn't mean that it's impossible to take long trips, or that they will take exponentially longer to get there.
hooziewhatsit is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 02:40 PM   #610
Hondaslayer
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 4562
Join Date: Feb 2001
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Auburn, WA
Vehicle:
2014 Electric Datsun
2005 Adventure van

Default

Love these power drivers that come out of the woodwork for these things.


Glad you can drive 1,000 miles straight never once stopping to piss or see a sight. Straight through, no stops. Like a man.

Personally, I have done the suicide runs a few too many times. I like making stops to recharge when we take trips.


PS the recharge is for me, not the van.
Hondaslayer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 02:50 PM   #611
E. Nick
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 8489
Join Date: Jul 2001
Chapter/Region: BAIC
Location: Atherton, CA
Vehicle:
2005 Carrera GT
Guards

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Indocti Discant View Post
Agreed - do you remember Collins and Aikman?

and help me out here - what's the suggested trade that you referred to on the last page - my brain is extremely rusty.

The Tsla issue was oversubscribed. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1SE1BM
Never followed the C&A scandal, but remember the headlines.

Trade from pages back wasn't specific, but idea was to find something or a basket of somethings that should and/or have correlated with TSLA in the past as your bond proxy. I like creating baskets from 2nd or 3rd degree removed industries to increase beta and allow your hedge to fluctuate more with the underlying. Start playing with charts until you find something with acceptable $ variance and % SD. Can be more profitable than trading the actual bond hedge, since liquidity is greater and you can trade higher frequency.

TSLA oversubscribed, but roughly half of the equity offering was purchased by TSLA itself as a hedge - so as not to be diluted in the case of the bond conversion. Bond covenants also quite onerous - they won't be able to tap the debt markets next time. Free money for Goldman and easy money for bond investors. They were desperate for cash and bent over to get it.
E. Nick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 03:01 PM   #612
Sid03SVT
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 183032
Join Date: Jun 2008
Chapter/Region: NESIC
Location: CT
Vehicle:
RWD Camry
Pull me over red

Default

10-15 years ago I would road-trip with my then girlfriend now wife and drive straight through with only stops for gas & bathroom. Once I crossed the 30 barrier, I was done with that; my max trip with only brief stops for gas & bathroom is like 250 miles or four hours, if my son is in the car, the length between stops is determined by him, and he's not into being still.
Sid03SVT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 04:17 PM   #613
n2oiroc
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 141952
Join Date: Feb 2007
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: milwaukee'ish
Vehicle:
20 Audi S4

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit View Post
The description lists all the distances and stops. Basically he drove for 2-2.5 hours, then stopped for 20 minutes to charge a bit.

Which is about the timing we do on longer trips just to hit the bathroom and stretch our legs.

And yea, you need to plan ahead slightly more than with an ICE... early adopter issues. But it doesn't mean that it's impossible to take long trips, or that they will take exponentially longer to get there.
not many people say its impossible, but if it would be a 900 mile and 13 hour trip in a gas car and an 1,100 mile and 18 hour trip in an electric car then its not very impressive.
n2oiroc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 04:20 PM   #614
n2oiroc
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 141952
Join Date: Feb 2007
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: milwaukee'ish
Vehicle:
20 Audi S4

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hondaslayer View Post
Love these power drivers that come out of the woodwork for these things.


Glad you can drive 1,000 miles straight never once stopping to piss or see a sight. Straight through, no stops. Like a man.

Personally, I have done the suicide runs a few too many times. I like making stops to recharge when we take trips.


PS the recharge is for me, not the van.
i personally cant stand road trips. if its more than a 6 hour drive or so, im flying. i want to spend as little time staring at bumpers as possible. i wouldnt mind it as much if the speed limits werent so slow. 55 mph through oklahoma makes you want to eat a bullet.
n2oiroc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 04:23 PM   #615
Hondaslayer
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 4562
Join Date: Feb 2001
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Auburn, WA
Vehicle:
2014 Electric Datsun
2005 Adventure van

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by n2oiroc View Post
not many people say its impossible, but if it would be a 900 mile and 13 hour trip in a gas car and an 1,100 mile and 18 hour trip in an electric car then its not very impressive.
You're missing the point.


People complain that EV's lack the range to replace ICE cars. Yet, here is an EV doing the ICE car hold up: Long trips.


The tech is here. The future is now. People just need to break away from comparing EV charging with gassing up. We go to and from work, charge at home or work. We never have to make that once a week fuel stop. Yes, long trips would be an inconvenience. But as shown, it's entirely possible and not a huge inconvenience in the grand scheme of it all since it's more convenient on a regular basis.
Hondaslayer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 04:29 PM   #616
n2oiroc
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 141952
Join Date: Feb 2007
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: milwaukee'ish
Vehicle:
20 Audi S4

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hondaslayer View Post
You're missing the point.


People complain that EV's lack the range to replace ICE cars. Yet, here is an EV doing the ICE car hold up: Long trips.


The tech is here. The future is now. People just need to break away from comparing EV charging with gassing up. We go to and from work, charge at home or work. We never have to make that once a week fuel stop. Yes, long trips would be an inconvenience. But as shown, it's entirely possible and not a huge inconvenience in the grand scheme of it all since it's more convenient on a regular basis.
i agree to a point, but its regional. on the coasts during the warm season, its no issue at all. in the midwest in the middle of a cold spell in winter, its an issue. i dont do road trips so its not an issue for me, my issue is the price and lack of a dealer/service network. $52k for a car i cant test drive and have to go to the chicago suburbs to have serviced. i dont even need to mention the looks and interior. im all for electric, just not a tesla. as soon as a reputable mfg comes out with something that performs as well as my current car, with a real interior, and a more reasonable price, im in.
n2oiroc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 04:34 PM   #617
mhoward1
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 9481
Join Date: Aug 2001
Chapter/Region: South East
Location: FFR Challenge #43
Vehicle:
1832 Steam Buggy
Wood

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hondaslayer View Post
You're missing the point.


People complain that EV's lack the range to replace ICE cars. Yet, here is an EV doing the ICE car hold up: Long trips.


The tech is here. The future is now. People just need to break away from comparing EV charging with gassing up. We go to and from work, charge at home or work. We never have to make that once a week fuel stop. Yes, long trips would be an inconvenience. But as shown, it's entirely possible and not a huge inconvenience in the grand scheme of it all since it's more convenient on a regular basis.
Yep, the main item is a behavior change. The charge each night VS once in a week.

In truth you spend far less time "refueling" per week since, but people view the Charging time as time lost (man, it took you 5 HOURS??!!) vs the fact that it's doing it at your home and while you sleep. The actual hook up time is 15/30 seconds of not doing your normal stuff vs the 5-10 minutes of filling up a car.
mhoward1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 04:54 PM   #618
Indocti Discant
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 138000
Join Date: Jan 2007
Chapter/Region: BAIC
Location: et ament meminisse periti
Vehicle:
Buy Nate's coffee
west coast roasting

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
Never followed the C&A scandal, but remember the headlines.

It was painful - my first ever underwriting - we bought about $40mm in aggregate. Thankfully, keeping our eye on it meant we flipped 90% of our position in our Total Return and Market funds. CDOs had no choice.

Made me the jaded investor that I am right now - of course Intermet and JL French filing earlier also assisted - along with being the Autos and Industrials guy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
Trade from pages back wasn't specific, but idea was to find something or a basket of somethings that should and/or have correlated with TSLA in the past as your bond proxy. I like creating baskets from 2nd or 3rd degree removed industries to increase beta and allow your hedge to fluctuate more with the underlying. Start playing with charts until you find something with acceptable $ variance and % SD. Can be more profitable than trading the actual bond hedge, since liquidity is greater and you can trade higher frequency.

Aha - that does make sense - I avoid those - prefer to do capital structure arbitrage as there are no external factors to be worried about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
TSLA oversubscribed, but roughly half of the equity offering was purchased by TSLA itself as a hedge - so as not to be diluted in the case of the bond conversion. Bond covenants also quite onerous - they won't be able to tap the debt markets next time. Free money for Goldman and easy money for bond investors. They were desperate for cash and bent over to get it.
Well that's interesting - how did they do that, Or are you talking about the hedge?
Quote:
We intend to use approximately $262.1 million of the net proceeds from this offering and our concurrent convertible notes offering to pay the cost of the convertible note hedge transactions (after such cost is partially offset by the proceeds to us from the warrant transactions).
Also what covenants? the converts don't have any.

Do you have any insight into their credit facility and how they are drawing on their revolver?
Indocti Discant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 05:32 PM   #619
hooziewhatsit
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 143938
Join Date: Mar 2007
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Oregon
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by n2oiroc View Post
not many people say its impossible, but if it would be a 900 mile and 13 hour trip in a gas car and an 1,100 mile and 18 hour trip in an electric car then its not very impressive.
From the description, he stopped 8 times, and charging times ranged from 13 minutes (min) - 22 minutes (max). So call it 2-2.5 hours extra from charging? (Considering that's how much extra time our 5 year old adds to our 260 mile trips... )

Keep in mind on that long of a trip you'll have to stop for 10 minutes here and there to use the bathroom, and to eat. So maybe an hour longer than a comparable ICE trip?

Other trips may not work out as well though, but I'd gladly deal with a few hassles on the few long trips, to never have to visit a gas station the rest of the year.
hooziewhatsit is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 06:15 PM   #620
n2oiroc
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 141952
Join Date: Feb 2007
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: milwaukee'ish
Vehicle:
20 Audi S4

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit View Post
From the description, he stopped 8 times, and charging times ranged from 13 minutes (min) - 22 minutes (max). So call it 2-2.5 hours extra from charging? (Considering that's how much extra time our 5 year old adds to our 260 mile trips... )

Keep in mind on that long of a trip you'll have to stop for 10 minutes here and there to use the bathroom, and to eat. So maybe an hour longer than a comparable ICE trip?

Other trips may not work out as well though, but I'd gladly deal with a few hassles on the few long trips, to never have to visit a gas station the rest of the year.
he didnt say how far the charging stations were from the highway or how many miles longer the route with charging stations were compared to the quickest route. for all we know he spent an extra 6 hours running all over to get to a charger.
n2oiroc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 06:21 PM   #621
shikataganai
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 92634
Join Date: Aug 2005
Chapter/Region: RMIC
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by n2oiroc View Post
he didnt say how far the charging stations were from the highway or how many miles longer the route with charging stations were compared to the quickest route. for all we know he spent an extra 6 hours running all over to get to a charger.
You can play around with the Tesla Trip Planner and it'll show how far out of the way you'd have to go on a particular route:

https://www.tesla.com/trips

Personally I wouldn't go on a trip that required Supercharging more than once... not because I'd rather take a gas car but because I'd just fly instead.

(Might have to make an exception for Jackson Hole trips when my kids are older, though.)
shikataganai is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 06:23 PM   #622
hooziewhatsit
Scooby Newbie
 
Member#: 143938
Join Date: Mar 2007
Chapter/Region: NWIC
Location: Oregon
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by n2oiroc View Post
he didnt say how far the charging stations were from the highway or how many miles longer the route with charging stations were compared to the quickest route. for all we know he spent an extra 6 hours running all over to get to a charger.
Considering the corridor he traveled, it's unlikely the chargers were very far off the highway.

https://abetterrouteplanner.com/?pla...f-2c738a31045d

Looking at the planned stops from that link, they are literally 2 minutes off the highway.
hooziewhatsit is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 06:39 PM   #623
n2oiroc
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 141952
Join Date: Feb 2007
Chapter/Region: MWSOC
Location: milwaukee'ish
Vehicle:
20 Audi S4

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
You can play around with the Tesla Trip Planner and it'll show how far out of the way you'd have to go on a particular route:

https://www.tesla.com/trips

Personally I wouldn't go on a trip that required Supercharging more than once... not because I'd rather take a gas car but because I'd just fly instead.

(Might have to make an exception for Jackson Hole trips when my kids are older, though.)
perfect, thanks! both trips with a long range model 3.

my house to dallas, tx.

google maps 15.5 hours 996 miles.
tesla 21 hours 1,106 miles.

my house to los angles.

google maps 30 hours 2,042 miles.
tesla 40 hours 2,064 miles.
n2oiroc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 06:46 PM   #624
shikataganai
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 92634
Join Date: Aug 2005
Chapter/Region: RMIC
Default

Both of those are solidly in fly-not-drive territory, IMO.
shikataganai is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2019, 07:05 PM   #625
mhoward1
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 9481
Join Date: Aug 2001
Chapter/Region: South East
Location: FFR Challenge #43
Vehicle:
1832 Steam Buggy
Wood

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
Both of those are solidly in fly-not-drive territory, IMO.
Same here. There is no way at this point in my life will I drive more that 6 hours total. Most likely 5 hours with a stop over. So the 10 hour trip would likely be the same as an ice. Iíd just charge at the hotel.
mhoward1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:06 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Powered by Searchlight © 2021 Axivo Inc.
Copyright ©1999 - 2019, North American Subaru Impreza Owners Club, Inc.

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.