Tesla Catch All Thread. Hate us cause you ain’t us.

[legav05]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

You do realize cnbc covers the largest and most notable investment firms and Wall Street analyst. I mean, the station is solely focused on the stock market, it’s all they cover, the don’t typically report some shrimp dick analyst or firm.

Please for the love of god tell me you’re not confusing cnbc with msnbc.

CNBS, the home network of Jim Cramer?

I mean, I agree they cover finance continuously...

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[SubaDuba420]

Tesla's struggles in China and Europe may be a preview of the pain coming for Elon in the US
Tesla may be scaling back production
https://www.autoblog.com/2022/12/12/...lon-in-the-us/
-Bloomberg reported this week that Tesla would scale back production at its Shanghai factory.
-Tesla is being outsold in both the Chinese and the European markets as competitors press in.
-While Tesla has 67% market share in the US, S&P Global predicts it will hit 20% by 2025.

What's Elon Musk to do when electric-vehicle makers start vying for Tesla's top spot in the US? That's a question investors will follow as Tesla faces steep competition in China's and Europe's EV markets.

Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Tesla planned to scale back production of its popular Model Y car by 20% at its Shanghai factory, one of its largest sites. A Tesla representative said the report was "untrue." Regardless, UBS and Deutsche Bank analysts have said an output-cutting measure is a good move for Tesla, as the EV-car market in China shows signs of softness.

Tesla's Shanghai factory sold 100,291 electric cars in November, setting a monthly record for the company and putting it on track to double the previous year's production of 484,130, Xinhua, China's state news agency, reported. Reaching those numbers required cuts of up to 9% of the Model 3 and Model Y sale prices, Reuters reported.

But Tesla didn't sell the most electric vehicles to Chinese customers in November. BYD, a Chinese automaker and global EV market leader backed by Berkshire Hathaway, did, selling 229,942 EVs, or more than double what Tesla sold.

To boost December sales and clear inventory, Tesla's China operations cut its prices again, despite announcing on its WeChat page that it wouldn't offer discounts again in 2023.

Patrick Hummel, the global head of autos at UBS, thinks more promotional sales will come. He wrote in a report Tuesday: "Further pricing action to stimulate more demand and or gain market share cannot be ruled out."

Emmanuel Rosner, the lead auto and auto-technology analyst at Deutsche Bank, said in his report: "It makes sense for Tesla to be prudent on production as local demand is generally under pressure."

Tesla's inventory woes seem to be a result of China's slowing economic growth. Continuous COVID-19 lockdowns and inflation are taking their toll on the pockets of Chinese consumers. The National Bureau of Statistics of China's purchasing managers index for November dropped below 50% to 48%, indicating a recession.

Rosner also wrote in his report that China's cash subsidy for EVs helped boost industry sales, but it will expire before the new year. If the government chooses not to extend the subsidy, that will additionally weaken demand for Tesla's Shanghai inventory.

Strong competition in China and Europe
Musk's auto company faces similar battles in Europe, the second-biggest EV market, behind China.

An October Counterpoint report found that Tesla's second quarter sales fell over 50% from the year before. A significant factor was its pandemic-induced supply-chain issues in China.

While Tesla opened a factory in Berlin to meet rising demand from European consumers, it just opened in March, and a significant portion of its inventory is imported from China. And while Tesla's Model Y was Europe's second-best-selling EV, it came in a distant second earlier this year to the Italian automotive manufacturer Fiat's Fiat 500e model.

Globally, Tesla's Model Y led the market last quarter, making up 7.5% of EV sales, Counterpoint reported. Models from Volkswagen, BYD, and the joint venture SAIC-GM-Wuling also made it into the top 10.

[Russ_G93]

Elon will need to start catering to people with tighter budgets, Kinda like how the Prius and Leaf are such great cars for the money. Maybe throw out the autonomous driving function and make a more basic Model 3.

[dwf137]

Local dealer has 55 Ioniq5's on the lot. I think demand for EV's is softening bigtime. Well, demand for all cars, and since EV's are a small and very expensive segment, it's going to take a hard hit.

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by dwf137

Local dealer has 55 Ioniq5's on the lot. I think demand for EV's is softening bigtime. Well, demand for all cars, and since EV's are a small and very expensive segment, it's going to take a hard hit.

Ford car sells decreased 7% in November. Chrysler just shutdown their Jeep plant for 6 months and BWM already shutdown their biggest plant for the year. The automotive sector is going to get hit hard for sure.

[SubaDuba420]

Originally Posted by dwf137

Local dealer has 55 Ioniq5's on the lot.....

local Hyundai dealer had 25+ on the lot last week, only 4 had SOLD signs.

[Calamity Jesus]

Originally Posted by legav05

CNBS, the home network of Jim Cramer?

I mean, I agree they cover finance continuously...

And? Are you saying Cramer isn't a financial genius? Do the exact opposite of whatever he says and you're likely to make bank. It takes some knowledge of the markets to be that wrong all the time.

[Kostamojen]

Originally Posted by dwf137

Local dealer has 55 Ioniq5's on the lot. I think demand for EV's is softening bigtime.

No, interest rates are slowing new car sales for average consumers right now. Plus, the EV credit is basically gone right now and won't be applicable to average consumers until 2024 as a right-off-the top discount. EV sales will jump big time then.

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

No, interest rates are slowing new car sales for average consumers right now. Plus, the EV credit is basically gone right now and won't be applicable to average consumers until 2024 as a right-off-the top discount. EV sales will jump big time then.

Yes and no. Yes the interest rates are definitely slowing sales plus general tightening of budget due to uncertain economic times ahead. But I think vehicle pricing puts a lot of Tesla vehicles out of the range for qualifying credits (among other vehicles too).

Elon isn’t doing himself any favors with his twitter postings either. The company’s consumer approval rating is all time low (multiple reports done).

Tesla is still going to crank out cars but I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a few quarters of missing delivery projections. Doesn’t mean the company is in trouble, it happens. Lots of headwinds, and Elon starting down the Kanye path of stupid comments.

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

Yes and no. Yes the interest rates are definitely slowing sales plus general tightening of budget due to uncertain economic times ahead. But I think vehicle pricing puts a lot of Tesla vehicles out of the range for qualifying credits (among other vehicles too).

Elon isn't doing himself any favors with his twitter postings either. The company's consumer approval rating is all time low (multiple reports done).

Tesla is still going to crank out cars but I wouldn't be surprised if they have a few quarters of missing delivery projections. Doesn't mean the company is in trouble, it happens. Lots of headwinds, and Elon starting down the Kanye path of stupid comments.

Sadly I have to agree with this .

As far as the EV credits all Model Y's should qualify and the Model 3 SR should qualify for the full credit if they change to made in America batteries and if they adjust the Model 3 LR to $55,000 that would get it too; only the Model 3 Performance would be excluded. That would cover the majority of their output. I think the EV credit could help with the demand a good amount but maybe not enough to sustain their growth target in a recession. Thankfully they have lots of cash so as the company they will be fine but the stock may tank even more but in 2024 if we start a bull market the stock should rip.

The semi truck also qualifies for a ton of EV credits. I wonder what is going to happen with the Mach-E the station wagon classification and the EV tax credit? And Korean brands are lobbying hard to the EV credit to get amended.

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by juanmedina

Sadly I have to agree with this .

As far as the EV credits all Model Y's should qualify and the Model 3 SR should qualify for the full credit if they change to made in America batteries and if they adjust the Model 3 LR to $55,000 that would get it too; only the Model 3 Performance would be excluded. That would cover the majority of their output. I think the EV credit could help with the demand a good amount but maybe not enough to sustain their growth target in a recession. Thankfully they have lots of cash so as the company they will be fine but the stock may tank even more but in 2024 if we start a bull market the stock should rip.

The semi truck also qualifies for a ton of EV credits. I wonder what is going to happen with the Mach-E the station wagon classification and the EV tax credit? And Korean brands are lobbying hard to the EV credit to get amended.

The Mach E will qualify (doesn’t seem to have trim level exclusions). Personally think the new EV tax bill is garbage and is rather counterproductive at pushing the transition from ICE to EV. Had a deposit on an EV6 but canceled since the income cap makes me ineligible. Guess I’ll just ride it out with my F150 for another year or so and reevaluate what the EV market has to offer along with pricing.

I think the near term biggest growth driver for Tesla will be that stripped down Model 3. Tesla and other autos need to make $35k-$40k vehicles with AWD but without all the bells and whistles. Basically something that could pull your Subaru level income owners over with equal features. So probably just heated seats.

[Kostamojen]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

Yes and no. Yes the interest rates are definitely slowing sales plus general tightening of budget due to uncertain economic times ahead. But I think vehicle pricing puts a lot of Tesla vehicles out of the range for qualifying credits (among other vehicles too).

With the way the credit acts right now, not only are there very few cars that qualify, but the limits on income and being based on folks actual taxs means that very few if anyone can get the full $7500.

Starting 2024, only the folks with too much income won't qualify. This basically means anyone in the qualifying income bracket buying now should just wait an extra year and can save thousands. Combine that with making more money leaving cash in the bank with interest means and expensive loans means anyone with half a brain will wait a year if they can.

Of course, limited production enthusiast cars are the exception to this right now as people are just out there buying those before they are gone permanently... But common joe buying any EV is going to second guess buying right now.

[Sid03SVT]

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

With the way the credit acts right now, not only are there very few cars that qualify, but the limits on income and being based on folks actual taxs means that very few if anyone can get the full $7500.

Starting 2024, only the folks with too much income won't qualify. This basically means anyone in the qualifying income bracket buying now should just wait an extra year and can save thousands. Combine that with making more money leaving cash in the bank with interest means and expensive loans means anyone with half a brain will wait a year if they can.

Of course, limited production enthusiast cars are the exception to this right now as people are just out there buying those before they are gone permanently... But common joe buying any EV is going to second guess buying right now.

Income limit for the federal tax credit is currently 150k for an individual, 300k for a married couple filing jointly. State requirements vary considerably.

If you want a 5-passenger EV CUV, you've got some options.

Link for those who want to see which models qualify:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

[Kostamojen]

Originally Posted by Sid03SVT

Income limit for the federal tax credit is currently 150k for an individual, 300k for a married couple filing jointly. State requirements vary considerably.

If you want a small sample size for what I'm getting at, OT does a tax thread every year. Roughly 10-20% posting could potentially qualify for the $7500 full credit, and an unknown percentage of that percentage have incomes higher than the cap. My guess is maybe 5-10% could actually get it.

https://forums.nasioc.com/forums/sho...ighlight=taxes

I can't find quick numbers for actual US tax return averages, but when the majority of low income folks already get rebates from the fed (supposedly 75% of the population) we won't be seeing EV sales jump until that part of the population can qualify for the full $7500 in 2024.

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by Sid03SVT

Income limit for the federal tax credit is currently 150k for an individual, 300k for a married couple filing jointly. State requirements vary considerably.

If you want a 5-passenger EV CUV, you've got some options.

Link for those who want to see which models qualify:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

That link is no accurate anymore after the new EV bill was rolled out

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

If you want a small sample size for what I'm getting at, OT does a tax thread every year. Roughly 10-20% posting could potentially qualify for the $7500 full credit, and an unknown percentage of that percentage have incomes higher than the cap. My guess is maybe 5-10% could actually get it.

https://forums.nasioc.com/forums/sho...ighlight=taxes

I can't find quick numbers for actual US tax return averages, but when the majority of low income folks already get rebates from the fed (supposedly 75% of the population) we won't be seeing EV sales jump until that part of the population can qualify for the full $7500 in 2024.

Tesla has not qualify after 2018 IIRC. Incomes of $66k+ married jointly get you the $7500 tax liability and $61k income for a head of household.

[Russ_G93]

Its all good, the New Prius is about to Smash Tesla sales

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by Russ_G93

Its all good, the New Prius is about to Smash Tesla sales

Tesla earns 8 times more profit than Toyota per car

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aut...20the%20world.

The refreshed Model S is started to be shipped to Europe. This German review likes it a lot:

https://youtu.be/EffB45ISO9M

https://youtu.be/EffB45ISO9M

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

With the way the credit acts right now, not only are there very few cars that qualify, but the limits on income and being based on folks actual taxs means that very few if anyone can get the full $7500.

Starting 2024, only the folks with too much income won't qualify. This basically means anyone in the qualifying income bracket buying now should just wait an extra year and can save thousands. Combine that with making more money leaving cash in the bank with interest means and expensive loans means anyone with half a brain will wait a year if they can.

Of course, limited production enthusiast cars are the exception to this right now as people are just out there buying those before they are gone permanently... But common joe buying any EV is going to second guess buying right now.

Originally Posted by Sid03SVT

Income limit for the federal tax credit is currently 150k for an individual, 300k for a married couple filing jointly. State requirements vary considerably.

If you want a 5-passenger EV CUV, you've got some options.

Link for those who want to see which models qualify:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

Single (no kids) and my modified adjusted gross income is above the cap. So no tax credit for this guy unless things change. Without the tax credit, when it’s time to buy a new vehicle, my cap is $55k (preferably less). If the law changes and I would qualify for tax credit, I’d possibly be willing to bump that to $60k.

With work and personal miles I average 20k-25k miles a year and get rid of them around 90k miles. With an EV, I might be inclined to keep longer than 100k miles if I can find a warranty that covers over 100k miles.

If my job were to change due to promotion or whatever and I only put on 10-12k miles a year, I’d be willing to spend a little bit more regardless of tax credits as I’d get 8-10 years out of a car instead of 3.5 on average.

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by Russ_G93

Its all good, the New Prius is about to Smash Tesla sales

The new Prius Will do incredibly well but I’d be willing to bet the people interested in a Tesla and cross shopping the Prius are incredibly limited. If Tesla does release that strip down version model 3, it would be inline with the Prius pricing, possibly less factoring in EV credits

[SCRAPPYDO]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

The new Prius Will do incredibly well but I’d be willing to bet the people interested in a Tesla and cross shopping the Prius are incredibly limited. If Tesla does release that strip down version model 3, it would be inline with the Prius pricing, possibly less factoring in EV credits

not sure, the new prius is quite good and has an actual car interior. I am struggling to figure out what you can possibly strip out of a 3. It is barely over a fisher price pedal car inside. The new Prius looks qutie good inside and out.

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO

not sure, the new prius is quite good and has an actual car interior. I am struggling to figure out what you can possibly strip out of a 3. It is barely over a fisher price pedal car inside. The new Prius looks qutie good inside and out.

I think it's called the Model 2. Slightly smaller and doesn't have all the tech features you'd see in the model 3.

The Tesla boys could probably give more details but that's what I can recall. Think it was price targeted to start between $25k-$30k. Prius prime is rumored to start above $40k I believe.

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

The Mach E will qualify (doesn't seem to have trim level exclusions). Personally think the new EV tax bill is garbage and is rather counterproductive at pushing the transition from ICE to EV. Had a deposit on an EV6 but canceled since the income cap makes me ineligible. Guess I'll just ride it out with my F150 for another year or so and reevaluate what the EV market has to offer along with pricing.

I think the near term biggest growth driver for Tesla will be that stripped down Model 3. Tesla and other autos need to make $35k-$40k vehicles with AWD but without all the bells and whistles. Basically something that could pull your Subaru level income owners over with equal features. So probably just heated seats.

I was talking about the Mach-E being classified as station wagon per the EPA instead of a SUV which is the classification requirement for the EV tax credit.

[dwf137]

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

If you want a small sample size for what I'm getting at, OT does a tax thread every year. Roughly 10-20% posting could potentially qualify for the $7500 full credit, and an unknown percentage of that percentage have incomes higher than the cap. My guess is maybe 5-10% could actually get it.

https://forums.nasioc.com/forums/sho...ighlight=taxes

I can't find quick numbers for actual US tax return averages, but when the majority of low income folks already get rebates from the fed (supposedly 75% of the population) we won't be seeing EV sales jump until that part of the population can qualify for the full $7500 in 2024.

That's not how the tax credit works.

It has absolutely nothing to do with how much you over/under paid your taxes during the course of the year. It reduces your tax liability and the federal government will pay you back as long as your tax liability is more than $7,500. It's just like over-paying your taxes by $7,500, the government doesn't just confiscate it, they return it to you. For a single taxpayer that's about $47K per year.

If you made 47k and perfectly filled out your W2 so you got no tax return, but bought an EV, you would get a $7,500 check from the government.

It however is not refundable beyond your liability. The people affected are those with a tax liability less than $7,500, so in my example above you made less than 47k and had a tax liability of like 6,000, you would only get 6K back from the government, you don't get that extra 1500.

sincerely,
a tax payer who has claimed the 7500 tax credit.

[Kostamojen]

Originally Posted by dwf137

That's not how the tax credit works.

It has absolutely nothing to do with how much you over/under paid your taxes during the course of the year. It reduces your tax liability and the federal government will pay you back as long as your tax liability is more than $7,500. It's just like over-paying your taxes by $7,500, the government doesn't just confiscate it, they return it to you. For a single taxpayer that's about $47K per year.

If you made 47k and perfectly filled out your W2 so you got no tax return, but bought an EV, you would get a $7,500 check from the government.

It however is not refundable beyond your liability. The people affected are those with a tax liability less than $7,500, so in my example above you made less than 47k and had a tax liability of like 6,000, you would only get 6K back from the government, you don't get that extra 1500.

sincerely,
a tax payer who has claimed the 7500 tax credit.

I will test try it again next year, but when I did the household taxes for this year and tested the old EV credit, only the Federal owe amount went awat and didn't go positive. It could have been there were hardly any taxes involved, but I'll be checking again next month.

[SubaDuba420]

Elon Musk cashed in another $3.6 billion of Tesla stock
https://www.autoblog.com/2022/12/15/...n-tesla-stock/

Looks as if he's liquidated about $24 BILLION so far this year.....