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Old 07-10-2019, 07:18 AM   #1
AVANTI R5
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Default Musk: The Price Of A Tesla Could Skyrocket



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Tesla fans who plan on buying a Tesla in the future might want to hurry up as the EVs could become a lot more expensive once the company’s output becomes fully autonomous. That’s according to a string of tweets by CEO Elon Musk in response to another tweet, citing Tesla delivery numbers.

“All HW2+ cars are upgradable to full self-driving capability with Tesla FSD computer & all production in past few months has FSD computer,” Musk said, “HW2” referring to the Tesla system that enables full self-driving functionality in the cars.

“Production fully switched over ~3 months ago. Functionality won’t diverge until Q4, as it’s limited by software validation. Will be later for Europe compared to rest of world due to regulatory constraints that were put in place years ago by big ICE companies.”

Musk was then asked whether the prices for Tesla models would go up as self-driving cars would be in high demand, Musk answered in the affirmative. Electrek’s Fred Lambert noted this was not the first time Musk talked about Teslas going fully autonomous: turning Teslas into revenue-generating robotaxis was part of Musk’s so-called Master Plan, Part Deux.

Indeed, if Teslas become fully autonomous and transport regulations are changed to accommodate self-driving cars, the price for a Tesla would soar: as Lambert notes in his report, Tesla itself calculated that a robotaxi could generate more than US$300,000 in profits over its lifetime. This means that if someone wants to buy such a vehicle, they would likely have to pay a six-figure sum for it based on these profit expectations.

And yet when Musk confirmed Tesla fans have ‘a limited time” to buy a relatively affordable Tesla, he certainly didn’t mean they have a year or two. Transport regulations are still behind. Last year, the House of Representatives passed a bill setting uniform standards for autonomous vehicles, but that’s about as far as legislative efforts in this respect have gone. The technology is simply too new and untrustworthy for many, and legislators are not into the habit of rushing regulatory changes that could end up blowing up in their face.
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Old 07-10-2019, 07:54 AM   #2
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So the goal was to make “affordable” EV vehicles but with autonomous driving coming in the future there is only a “limited time” to buy a semi affordable Tesla.

Get back to me once his vehicles are fully autonomous and once legislatures pass laws for fully autonomy. Both of those will take a solid amount of time and I’d be surprised if we have fully autonomy in 5 years or less.

Edit with more thought:

The legislation and regulation is going to be a big hurdle and take a significant amount of time. Let’s assume Tesla achieves 100% autonomy to where a driver could realistically fall asleep and the car drive itself. I’d be willing to bet that the first wave of legislation in autonomy will still require the driver to be focused on the road, no texting, etc. Basically not much difference than now. I’d be hard pressed to believe regulators just take a leap of faith upon first release and assume everything will go as planned as their ass would be on the line in the event full autonomous resulted in enough accidents. How many is enough? Who knows. I think Elon is being very over simplistic in acceptance and legal passage of what he sees the future as. I also don’t see these vehicles suddenly jumping in large percentage of new sales simply because full autonomy is then released.

Lastly, let’s assume the vision of full autonomous driving where no driver needs to be present and the car could be used as essentially an Uber or Taxi car. I’d be willing to bet that corporations step in and place large orders for these cars which would created a massive ****ing backlog and ordinary customers would be looking at a ridiculous time frame before they would receive a car.

Kudos to Elon / Tesla if they achieve what they say in the timeframe they believe. I however see real hurdles that will prolong the process and other complications.

Last edited by godfather2112; 07-10-2019 at 08:32 AM.
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Old 07-10-2019, 08:15 AM   #3
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I'd just like my Tesla autopilot (without "Full Self Driving") to not slam on the brakes when it sees shadows of road signs or bridges. It's gotten better with the latest software updates but it still does it once in a while.

I recently did a road trip driving my wife's 2019 Mustang Ecoboost with manual transmission and active cruise control. I will say that the active cruise is lazier to respond to cars cutting in than my Tesla. It requires a lot more driver intervention, although in an "oh ****" situation the Mustang will brake.

The Tesla's problem is that it's twitchy in acceleration and deceleration, kind of the opposite of the Mustang.
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Old 07-10-2019, 09:17 AM   #4
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Kind of like in 2007 when realtors all said it was time to buy a house now, or be priced out forever? Lol.
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Old 07-10-2019, 09:20 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by arghx7 View Post
I'd just like my Tesla autopilot (without "Full Self Driving") to not slam on the brakes when it sees shadows of road signs or bridges. It's gotten better with the latest software updates but it still does it once in a while.

I recently did a road trip driving my wife's 2019 Mustang Ecoboost with manual transmission and active cruise control. I will say that the active cruise is lazier to respond to cars cutting in than my Tesla. It requires a lot more driver intervention, although in an "oh ****" situation the Mustang will brake.

The Tesla's problem is that it's twitchy in acceleration and deceleration, kind of the opposite of the Mustang.
Both are probably better than Subaru's Eyesight, or at least the 2018 version of it. I can't tell you how many times the car has slammed on the brakes because a car in front turned off and was completely out of the way, but still in the vision of the car so it goes into full collision avoidance.
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:11 AM   #6
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So when was the last time Elon said anything that had a time attached to it came true...
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:32 AM   #7
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Both are probably better than Subaru's Eyesight, or at least the 2018 version of it. I can't tell you how many times the car has slammed on the brakes because a car in front turned off and was completely out of the way, but still in the vision of the car so it goes into full collision avoidance.
It might even be the same supplier who developed the Ford and Subaru systems.

I think part of the "robotic" nature of these systems is that humans make complicated decisions automatically in the back of their mind. Most people when driving in the right line might have a car in front of them turn right out of the lane. A human driver will often make a split second calculation of how quickly that car is turning right and the distance between the two vehicles, and the acceptable gap between them.

So if I'm 7 car lengths from a car that slows down and makes a right, I might not even slow down at all, because I made a split second judgement that I will be 3 car lengths away from the vehicle when it has completed the turn and thus I will be safe.

These automated systems just see an object in the way slowing down. They don't dynamically change the target following distance based on anything besides speed, not yet. The same applies for setting a following distance based on traffic density or weather. Human drivers tend to follow closer in heavy traffic so as to minimize cut-ins, and allow more space in bad weather. I've never driven a car that can dynamically change the target following distance based on non-speed conditions like humans do.

In both the Ford and Tesla active cruise, I have to regularly change the target follow distance setting (which is roughly in "seconds"). So I'm at a "1" in heavy traffic and stop and go, a 2 in most moderate traffic, and if it's light traffic or bad weather I'm at a 3 or even 4.

That isn't only a matter of computer vision, it's a matter of logic and judgement. Assess the situation (based on vision/sensors) and make a following distance judgement based on all the external factors (weather, traffic density, uphill/downhill, etc).
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:53 AM   #8
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^ road condition sensors (including weather) + cars networked and talking to each other, is what is really needed to get that dynamic evaluation. Only then would almost 100% safe and efficient autonomy would work.

Cars really need to be networked and communicate to each other to know what's happening and going to happen, and make an action accordingly. And of course, laws and autonomy standards need to get up to speed -- this mish-mash of proprietary stuff is a mess.
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Old 07-10-2019, 11:08 AM   #9
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So when was the last time Elon said anything that had a time attached to it came true...
Answer, never. Hell, the insurance they were touting to offer was supposed to release in April and here we are.
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^ road condition sensors (including weather) + cars networked and talking to each other, is what is really needed to get that dynamic evaluation. Only then would almost 100% safe and efficient autonomy would work.

Cars really need to be networked and communicate to each other to know what's happening and going to happen, and make an action accordingly. And of course, laws and autonomy standards need to get up to speed -- this mish-mash of proprietary stuff is a mess.
And there lies the problem. Tesla is using cameras and arguably wants their tech to be proprietary and licensed out for others to use / work together. The other autos seem to be going the same direction in terms of autonomous tech and charging. It will be crucial that autonomous vehicles can communicate with one another for enhanced safety but that also leaves the question of what about the millions of cars without autonomous tech or communicative tech in them?

I’m thinking we’re closer to 10 years if not more for real full autonomous driving.
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Old 07-10-2019, 11:31 AM   #10
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Well at least we are seeing convergence on Charging standards. Tesla will now accept Chademo
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Old 07-10-2019, 12:23 PM   #11
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This is either a "I need to get out an article to meet my quota for clicks/articles" or a "It's a slow news day, I know, I'll paste together a Tesla story" article; either way, it's a waste of time, lacking content, rife with speculation, and poorly written.
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Old 07-10-2019, 01:00 PM   #12
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Just one of the articles/headlines written/released to whitewash the news of 11 people from the autonomous division leaving in unison after telling dickboy that his goals were unattainable. Gives plausible deniability as a defense while also pumping the stock.

The entire machine is so transparent at this point - I would love to graph the IQ of people who are pro-Tesla over time - exponential decay. Perhaps Etron is an alien and his magic words are just radioactive. Would then need to include avg exposure in the graph - Californium-250 half-life is 13 years if I remember correctly - seems to fit!
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Old 07-10-2019, 02:50 PM   #13
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I’m thinking we’re closer to 10 years if not more for real full autonomous driving.
The question that will help answer the timeline thing is "how long do current car markets take to phase out." Most of the cars I see are from 90s and early 2000s. According to google, the avg car age is 11.6 years, which seems about right. So, even if we stopped selling non-full autonomous cars RIGHT NOW, it would still be ~12 years before they even became a majority, let along got to the huge percentage necessary to make autonomous more effective and efficient like it needs to be. While there are non-autonomous cars on the road mucking it up, autonomous cars will suffer. And I'm not giving up my non-autonomous car until they pry it from my cold, dead hands Driving isn't just a chore to me. I try to cram as much fun into it as possible, because manipulating machinery is great.
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Old 07-10-2019, 04:19 PM   #14
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The question that will help answer the timeline thing is "how long do current car markets take to phase out." Most of the cars I see are from 90s and early 2000s. According to google, the avg car age is 11.6 years, which seems about right. So, even if we stopped selling non-full autonomous cars RIGHT NOW, it would still be ~12 years before they even became a majority, let along got to the huge percentage necessary to make autonomous more effective and efficient like it needs to be. While there are non-autonomous cars on the road mucking it up, autonomous cars will suffer. And I'm not giving up my non-autonomous car until they pry it from my cold, dead hands Driving isn't just a chore to me. I try to cram as much fun into it as possible, because manipulating machinery is great.
I think it was new car ownership is 11 years. So figure how many people buy used, how long it would take to phase out used, etc.
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Old 07-10-2019, 04:26 PM   #15
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Quote:
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I think it was new car ownership is 11 years. So figure how many people buy used, how long it would take to phase out used, etc.
The average age of cars on the road is 11.8 years. The average car new ownership is 70 months, just under 6 years. Used Car buyers keep them only 40 months.
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:41 AM   #16
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Also to add, IHS projected that the number of vehicles that are at least 16 years old will increase by 22% from 2018 to 2023, reaching 84 million. That would mark an increase from 35 million in 2002.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...it/1593764001/
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Old 07-11-2019, 02:23 PM   #17
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Cars do cost a lot of money now, hence the longer loan terms, but you gotta admit that most of them last a lot longer. Sure all the expensive sensors and such cost more, but just about any new car basic car (Camry/Rav4 kind of vheicle) will last a minimum of 10 years with minimal maintenance and repair.

The whole point about old cars being on the road justifies Musk's aspiration for a software centered, generalized solution to autonomous driving that doesn't rely on vehicle to vehicle communication. Of course that doesn't mean Tesla will actually achieve that in the next 5 years.
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:25 PM   #18
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It might even be the same supplier who developed the Ford and Subaru systems.
Subaru was in-house.

https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333300#

Some early efforts by Ford, etc. may have been in-house, too, but my impression is that the market currently is:

Tesla

Subaru

Everyone else, all (?) relying on Mobileye…
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:58 PM   #19
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If autonomous becomes a thing

9999 other people are going to try to do the same thing

it won't take long before there are 'hackers' and 'programmers' who spend all day doing this, programming new cars for new service or hacking/stealing using others electrical services etc...
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Old 07-14-2019, 10:33 AM   #20
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I see this as Elon trying to scare people into buying Tesla’s now.
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Old 07-14-2019, 12:43 PM   #21
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Over 400 Chinese co's make B EVs , competition will sell for half. Hang on cause bargains around the corner.
https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/...nas-ev-market/
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Old 07-14-2019, 02:13 PM   #22
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Over 400 Chinese co's make B EVs , competition will sell for half. Hang on cause bargains around the corner.
https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/...nas-ev-market/
China's market is apparently much more willing to accept crap. American buyers are leery of new nameplates. The only way China is getting a toehold in our market is via Chinese-built familiar marques, IMO: Volvo, Buick, Honda (one variant of the Fit was built there, iirc--Canada-only?).
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Old 07-14-2019, 06:35 PM   #23
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The autonomous question is one thing, I'm wondering how well prepared Tesla will be when the impending mineral price rises occur. Last I heard, some are forecasting that the automaker demand for some minerals for EVs (and cobalt in particular, within the next few years) is going to FAR exceed the supply; which will cause the materiel costs to skyrocket. Tesla better be ludicrously profitable by then or I imagine they might not survive it.
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Old 07-15-2019, 12:25 AM   #24
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The goal of Tesla (acquired Maxwell Tech) and other battery manufacturers is to remove cobalt from batteries. The POC is present, how quick they implement is a different story.
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Old 07-15-2019, 12:45 AM   #25
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Musk: The price of Musk could skyrocket
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