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Old 09-22-2020, 08:54 PM   #2876
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Originally Posted by juanmedina View Post
it seems the market didn't like the presentation. I thought it was amazing but people always want instant gratification. It seems that most of the cell advancements are a done deal but the dry electrode seems to need some refinement.
Well, lets take a step back and be honest a little bit. Traditionally Elon has promised releases and advancements along with new product releases within a very short period of time which most knew would not happen yet investors, both retail and institutional would dive head first into and disregard it when it didn't happen. Now that Tesla is in the big boys sand box and Elon has probably matured a bit, he needs to make realistic projections that may included a longer time horizon but ultimately be best for the business.

Elon, unlike the anitchrist Zuckerberg can be forced out of the company and now that Tesla is well established with a nice cash balance and runway, its about long term, not just meeting the next quarterly earnings expectations. If he puts a realistic timeframe on new development and meets those, he will guarantee his seat has president and ceo for a long time. Those who are patient and believe in the long term vision will be rewarded. Those who want quick profits will get left behind.

Yes, I see a likely coming of downgrades from "buy" to "hold / neutral" from numerous analyst as they have become use to whats happening in the next 3-6 months, 1 year max. This is why I have held the position that analyst have become a complete crock of ****. Tesla isn't the only one but analyst would compete with throwing out higher and higher stock targets and **** would rally just because.

If fundamentals still applied (they don't), you would look at a stock and it's growth and it would reflect the actual growth / performance of a company. If a stock gains 10%, previously the company would have increased its performance by a similar amount.

I'll digress as I can keep going but I actually applaud Elon for giving an adult presentation and realistic time horizons.
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Old 09-22-2020, 09:26 PM   #2877
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Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
Well, lets take a step back and be honest a little bit. Traditionally Elon has promised releases and advancements along with new product releases within a very short period of time which most knew would not happen yet investors, both retail and institutional would dive head first into and disregard it when it didn't happen. Now that Tesla is in the big boys sand box and Elon has probably matured a bit, he needs to make realistic projections that may included a longer time horizon but ultimately be best for the business.

Elon, unlike the anitchrist Zuckerberg can be forced out of the company and now that Tesla is well established with a nice cash balance and runway, its about long term, not just meeting the next quarterly earnings expectations. If he puts a realistic timeframe on new development and meets those, he will guarantee his seat has president and ceo for a long time. Those who are patient and believe in the long term vision will be rewarded. Those who want quick profits will get left behind.

Yes, I see a likely coming of downgrades from "buy" to "hold / neutral" from numerous analyst as they have become use to whats happening in the next 3-6 months, 1 year max. This is why I have held the position that analyst have become a complete crock of ****. Tesla isn't the only one but analyst would compete with throwing out higher and higher stock targets and **** would rally just because.

If fundamentals still applied (they don't), you would look at a stock and it's growth and it would reflect the actual growth / performance of a company. If a stock gains 10%, previously the company would have increased its performance by a similar amount.

I'll digress as I can keep going but I actually applaud Elon for giving an adult presentation and realistic time horizons.
Next week is going to be interesting with the P&D results. I was trying to find what is the consensus for P&D between analysis and it seems to be 144,000 vehicles that seems to be way too much by the analyst IMO. I think the analyst are overcorrecting because they were so wrong on the previous quarters. Tesla will deliver just right at 144,000 vehicles which will be a record but I think Tesla will drop hard because they didn't beat expectations.
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Old 09-22-2020, 09:32 PM   #2878
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We all know the $25k Tesla won***8217;t happen. They***8217;ll make a few perhaps, but it won***8217;t be an option on the website. And when you call to order it they***8217;ll tell you they***8217;re only making the $28k ***8216;plus***8217; model, so that***8217;s what you***8217;ll have to order if you actually want to take delivery.
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Old 09-23-2020, 07:15 AM   #2879
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We all know the $25k Tesla won***8217;t happen. They***8217;ll make a few perhaps, but it won***8217;t be an option on the website. And when you call to order it they***8217;ll tell you they***8217;re only making the $28k ***8216;plus***8217; model, so that***8217;s what you***8217;ll have to order if you actually want to take delivery.
The base Model 3 is 38k. It was announced in 2015 and on sell in 2017. 35k inflation adjusted is more than 38k....

All Tesla Models have been going down in price through the years significantly on top of that they don't qualify for incentives anymore. For instance My Model 3 Performance Stealth went introduce was 68k and at the lowes was 52k.

Tell me, are Honda Civics or Accords cheaper than a few years back?

The 25k Tesla will happen maybe not 3 years but maybe in 5, who knows?....

There will be plenty of used Models 3 under 30k in 3 years.

The new Model S Plaid is going to be crazy:

https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/130...062422528?s=09

Last edited by juanmedina; 09-23-2020 at 07:32 AM.
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Old 09-23-2020, 09:32 AM   #2880
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I wonder what the real world range of the Plaid will be on a 75-80mph highway road trip, both in summer and in the winter. It has to be long enough that you can effectively skip charging stops that would be necessary on say a Model 3 long range.
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Old 09-23-2020, 12:27 PM   #2881
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it seem that this you tuber was the driver... I wonder if someone like Randy can go even faster:


Next stop Nürburgring he says
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Old 09-23-2020, 02:30 PM   #2882
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I wonder what the real world range of the Plaid will be on a 75-80mph highway road trip, both in summer and in the winter. It has to be long enough that you can effectively skip charging stops that would be necessary on say a Model 3 long range.
Caranddriver said they miss the range by about 27% during their 75mph test.
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Old 09-23-2020, 02:46 PM   #2883
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Originally Posted by shake-rattle-n-roll View Post
Caranddriver said they miss the range by about 27% during their 75mph test.
so 380+ miles or 5+ hours driving at 75mph. ... I really want one.
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Old 09-25-2020, 07:17 AM   #2884
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Here are the highlights from battery day. The future is bright


Last edited by juanmedina; 09-25-2020 at 10:40 AM.
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Old 09-25-2020, 09:10 AM   #2885
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Here are the highlights from battery day. The future is bright

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre...o-tsla.191290/
Sure you got the right link there? That link is to something titled "Applying options strategy" and is all about investing. I just want TLDR of the actual battery day talk
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Old 09-25-2020, 10:21 AM   #2886
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TLDR from battery day
  • the competition is much further behind than anyone thought in regards to battery tech.
  • the cost of the batteries in each Tesla is going down faster than expected
  • the factories are drastically reducing the amount of floor space required for making batteries by removing the wet process
  • the factories will be generating batteries at multiples of their current rate measured in kwh
  • Tesla has advancements in refining nickel and lithium from the raw ore that no one saw coming - these will enable cheaper, faster, cleaner sourcing of these materials
  • Tesla took Sandy's advice and made the battery structural to the car. This leapfrogs the plans of other EV makers.

These all seem boring to a car guy, but as an investor I'm still buying more Tesla because they look undervalued.
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Old 09-25-2020, 10:41 AM   #2887
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Sure you got the right link there? That link is to something titled "Applying options strategy" and is all about investing. I just want TLDR of the actual battery day talk
yeah wrong link

fixed
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Old 09-25-2020, 11:57 AM   #2888
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^ Pretty much. Even if they only hit half of their battery goals, it will be a good improvement.

Plus, as batteries get cheaper, we can use them on the grid more. Considering how much the "big battery" in Australia is making with 3 year old tech and prices, utilities should be running to install them.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-bi...profits-77644/

The future is indeed bright
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Old 09-25-2020, 02:26 PM   #2889
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Sandy also pointed out that these cars are getting lighter with the higher density and cell-to-structure advancements. One-piece castings will help make them cheaper and stronger and more reliable.

The structural battery "pack" will be very robust if implemented the way Elon described it. They won't be serviceable, but the new chemistry is going to make that less of an issue.
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Old 09-25-2020, 02:37 PM   #2890
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^ Pretty much. Even if they only hit half of their battery goals, it will be a good improvement.

Plus, as batteries get cheaper, we can use them on the grid more. Considering how much the "big battery" in Australia is making with 3 year old tech and prices, utilities should be running to install them.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-bi...profits-77644/

The future is indeed bright
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Originally Posted by Keshav View Post
Sandy also pointed out that these cars are getting lighter with the higher density and cell-to-structure advancements. One-piece castings will help make them cheaper and stronger and more reliable.

The structural battery "pack" will be very robust if implemented the way Elon described it. They won't be serviceable, but the new chemistry is going to make that less of an issue.
Here is the video from Sandy. The improvements are ridiculous from 75kwh battery to 130kwh on the same size pack approximately as the Model 3. Cooling improvement by moving the cooling to end cap using cheap cooling plates instead of cooling the sides of cell therefore improving pack cell density. I wonder if is too much to say.... Game over ICE

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Old 09-25-2020, 02:51 PM   #2891
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I wonder what the real world range of the Plaid will be on a 75-80mph highway road trip, both in summer and in the winter. It has to be long enough that you can effectively skip charging stops that would be necessary on say a Model 3 long range.
The car will go longer than you.

Unless you carry an empty Mt Dew bottle everywhere. In which case, ew.
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Old 09-26-2020, 10:18 AM   #2892
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What Everyone Got Wrong About Elon Musk’s Battery Day

Disappointed investors and analysts are missing what battery experts recognize as a transformative announcement

Quote:
Elon Musk’s influence over legacy industry has almost no modern precedent. Like Jeff Bezos’ shakeup of retail, automobiles in the 2020s and 2030s seem to be shaping up as Musk alone has reimagined them. Virtually every automaker, large or small, is piling into Musk’s electric world, with claims they will grab a significant slice of it.

Musk’s latest jerk of the wheel came this week with “Battery Day,” a long-teased event at which the Tesla CEO unveiled a sweeping, top-to-bottom recontemplation of the lithium-ion battery and how it is manufactured. The result, he said, would be a 56% cut in battery costs, finally opening up the mass market with $25,000 electric vehicles.

The market sent Tesla’s shares down more than 6%, and disappointed Wall Street analysts who said the presentation was light on details. But investors and analysts will need to catch up: Many battery experts themselves are treating what Musk described as a fait accompli.

In interviews, battery experts told me that Musk seemed to be understating the timeline — it looks closer to 2030 than his claim of 2023. But what he described, arriving late or not, is the new bar for both legacy automakers and startups, seeming to eclipse almost everything in the commercial pipeline. “Others have elements of what he is doing, but no one is doing it all,” said Gene Bershidevsky, CEO of Sila Nanotechnologies, a Silicon Valley-based battery startup and a key early Tesla employee.

On Thursday, two days after the event, Venkat Viswanathan, a professor at Carnegie Mellon, said that he still had not fully digested all that Musk presented — and that it could require a phalanx of top battery experts to adequately analyze.

And what is that new bar? James Frith, head of energy storage at BloombergNEF, said that by his calculations, Musk was describing a new battery cost of about $56 per kWh. That is down from an average cost today of around $150 per kWh. (Tesla’s are currently lower, at $130.) He gets there by reconfiguring both electrodes, eliminating whole stages of manufacture, intensifying automation, mining metals more efficiently, tapering the length of supply lines, removing hundreds of parts from the EV, molding large sections of the vehicle as a single piece, and more.

As we have reported, the very leading edge of EV batteries is an attempt to commercialize metallic lithium or silicon anodes, which would allow vehicles to travel much further and cost much less. But Musk’s proposals may reduce the need for these exotic advances.

I asked Gene Berdishevsky, the Sila Nano CEO, what would happen if his own silicon anodes — when they are ready for the market — were added to Musk’s proposed battery transformation. “If he gets to $60, we can get well below $50 — maybe even $40,” he said. “Fifty dollars would be just transformational.”
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Old 09-26-2020, 03:52 PM   #2893
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What Everyone Got Wrong About Elon Musk’s Battery Day

Disappointed investors and analysts are missing what battery experts recognize as a transformative announcement
It's because the majority of investors don't really understand sh** about battery engineering and need news that fits their comprehension level.
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Old 09-26-2020, 07:05 PM   #2894
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It's because the majority of investors don't really understand sh** about battery engineering and need news that fits their comprehension level.
Yep. Sadly, most investors can only understand a few things: Profit, revenue and did you beat expectations? This goes with numerous companies and markets, not just Tesla.

I still believe Tesla is overvalued as a company. However, that does not mean I believe Tesla is a bad company, a company that is likely to go belly up, or a company with a short run way for success. Actually, it’s quite the opposite.

I’m not a fan of Tesla vehicles and yes, I’ve driven them. I do believe that they have incredible technology and do produce really good vehicles. It’s just not the vehicle for me. My wants and needs are different and it’s no different than me saying I won’t own a Mercedes, GMC, Audi, etc.


Just like any other technology or company, they tend to skyrocket in the early stages and the plateau. It’s during that plateau that all the resources get poured into r&d for the next giant leap. Investors have become uncomfortably comfortable with immediate exponential growth and advancement which results in quick financial gain. Investors are mad because a lot of companies are staying private longer than historically done but once you go public, you do risk (unless your Zuckerdouche) of being voted out as CEO if the growth isn’t fast enough.

Being public has both pro’s and cons. Investors absolutely hate hearing the company is going to run through cash so that they can advanced. Ironically, they will vote out a sitting CEO and replace with a new one who almost instantly promises to spend **** loads of cash with a promise of return in so many years.


I’ll digress as I could keep going. Elon is finally doing the right thing for the company and essentially telling shareholders / investors so suck it, and that the company will invest in itself for the long term.
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Old 09-30-2020, 07:44 AM   #2895
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Wife traded in her old daily driver that she was hardly driving due to Covid and working from home (2020 Mercedes GLE) and we took delivery of a Model Y LR AWD yesterday which we're going to share as a DD for work (I'll switch back N forth between the Tesla and Kia).



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Old 09-30-2020, 10:05 AM   #2896
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After getting sticker shock when looking at a V6 XSE Camry, I've been scouring the Tesla Model 3 forums lately. I'm intrigued by a long range dual motor 3.
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Old 09-30-2020, 11:40 AM   #2897
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Wife traded in her old daily driver that she was hardly driving due to Covid and working from home (2020 Mercedes GLE) and we took delivery of a Model Y LR AWD yesterday which we're going to share as a DD for work (I'll switch back N forth between the Tesla and Kia).
Congrats. Let me know if you have any questions (former M3 and current MY owner)
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Old 09-30-2020, 12:09 PM   #2898
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Model Y one-piece rear castings are being produced in Fremont now. That should accelerate the speed of production and reduce the cost-of-materials a fair amount.

plan is to do front and rear this way for Model Y and 3.
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Old 09-30-2020, 12:17 PM   #2899
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Is it normal for car manufacturers to shake out car parts in a parking lot (that is a construction site) like they're storing concrete blocks for a construction site? Those seem like parts that should be kept indoors, or at least protected from weather, no?

Maybe I have a false sense of what car manufacturing is, or maybe Tesla is really still just winging it... Given the quality issues I still see posted about regularly (composite wood trim to secure parts wtf), I'm thinking it's the latter. I can't believe people pay what they do for these cars.
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Old 09-30-2020, 12:26 PM   #2900
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Really just depends on how long they sit out there and what they're made of. If it's an aluminum casting that won't ever get painted or goes through some kind of paint prep acid bath... who cares
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