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Old 01-04-2019, 08:18 AM   #1
AVANTI R5
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Default Internal Combustion Vehicle Sales Likely Peaked in 2018, Analysts Say

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Internal Combustion Vehicle Sales Likely Peaked in 2018, Analysts Say
They expect a permanent decline to begin soon due to trade, economy, and environment concerns.

Analysts believe that 2018 will go down as the best year for internal combustion vehicle sales ever, predicting a downturn in demand for the mode of propulsion starting in 2019.

"At the beginning of the year we had a more optimistic perspective for the global market," said Felipe Munoz, global automotive analyst for Jato Dynamics, in Financial Times. "This has changed in the last six months."

Predictions as of January were that internal combustion vehicle demand would continue to grow through 2022, but a plateau of sales in the three biggest vehicle markets of China, Europe, and the United States has meant that 2018 growth won't be as large as expected, and future years may see demand shrink instead.

"We will probably see the peak of combustion engine car sales in 2018 based on global sales through October, plus estimates for November and December," commented Munoz.

"When you look at 2018 since the summer, new car sales in all of the important markets are going down," added Axel Schmidt, global automotive lead for Accenture, in FT's story. "Selling combustion engine cars to customers—this will not grow in the future."

Attributed for the decrease in demand are factors such as the U.S.-China trade war, more restrictive emissions guidelines in Europe, and Brexit, among others. Slumping real income of the average American could also contribute to reduced sales of ICE vehicles in North America, though global vehicle sales aren't expected to decline. Moody's projects that electric vehicles' market share could quadruple to 1.6 percent, preventing the new car market from deflating.

This will in part be driven by the greater availability of affordable electric vehicles, especially those attractive to consumers, such as crossovers. Hyundai and Kia, in particular, will debut smaller, more affordable electric crossovers, but their range and livability don't suffer at the hands of reduced costs. One country that may gobble up these models is China, which is buying EVs in greater volumes than any other market. Fuel cell vehicles are increasing in popularity as well, though automakers are split on whether or not hydrogen fuel cells are tomorrow's means of propulsion.
https://www.ft.com/content/62506c24-...8-acdb36967cfc
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Old 01-07-2019, 12:07 PM   #2
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Nobody wants EV's unless they are made by Tesla. Just like nobody wanted hybrids unless they were called "Prius"
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Old 01-07-2019, 12:23 PM   #3
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Nobody wants EV's unless they are made by Tesla. Just like nobody wanted hybrids unless they were called "Prius"
There are 300,000+ people in the USA alone who bought Nissan Leafs that would disagree with you.
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Old 01-07-2019, 12:43 PM   #4
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There are 300,000+ people in the USA alone who bought Nissan Leafs that would disagree with you.
I can't believe 300k people can handle driving one of those things
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Old 01-07-2019, 01:00 PM   #5
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I'm surprised there isn't more out there about how much of a carbon footprint goes into mining the lithium for the batteries and how the batteries aren't recyclable.

Last edited by Xandernfs; 01-07-2019 at 01:07 PM.
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Old 01-07-2019, 01:32 PM   #6
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slower global economy will have much fewer cars sold. So far public not to willing to pay double for E cars that take hours to charge. But this analyst proves its time to stop the incentives and make Ecars pay fair share road taxes.
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Old 01-07-2019, 01:43 PM   #7
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I'm surprised there isn't more out there about how much of a carbon footprint goes into mining the lithium for the batteries and how the batteries aren't recyclable.
Shhhhh Don't tell the eco band wagoners that keeping that old gas burner on the road is actually far more environmentally friendly than that shiny new Tesla they will drive for 3-5 years.

If everyone would just buy a car and keep it until the wheels fall off and no more spare parts were made for it, we wouldn't be in this mess.

Cars are a drop in a bucket compared to furnaces for co2 emissions.

Oh and China just about exclusively controls all the rare elements for battery production, and battery production itself. Once Ameriduh becomes actually reliant on E tech, China will have us over a barrel with a pineapple in our asses.
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:01 PM   #8
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I'm surprised there isn't more out there about how much of a carbon footprint goes into mining the lithium for the batteries and how the batteries aren't recyclable.
Complete with legitimate sources...

Summary: even with the emissions to make the battery using worst case scenarios against EVs, ICE starts producing more emissions than EVs after 1.67 years for a 30kw battery and 5.5 years against a 100 kw battery.

He gets into the mining part too, along with sources of electricity, and a lot of other scenarios, and EVs won't have a bigger footprint -- Even taking into account replacing the battery.

Also, batteries are recyclable and if isn't recycled, can be used as a low power-draw batteries.

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Old 01-07-2019, 02:04 PM   #9
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Complete with legitimate sources...

Summary: even with the emissions to make the battery using worst case scenarios against EVs, ICE starts producing more emissions than EVs after 1.67 years for a 30kw battery and 5.5 years against a 100 kw battery.

He gets into the mining part too, along with sources of electricity, and a lot of other scenarios, and EVs won't have a bigger footprint -- Even taking into account replacing the battery.

Also, batteries are recyclable and if isn't recycled, can be used as a low power-draw batteries.
Thank you for the clarification!
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:16 PM   #10
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Thank you for the clarification!
No problem Engineering Explained's videos are awesome. I like my gasoline cars (heck I dd an STI) and EVs too.

Personally, I'd like to get into an EV now that range isn't an issue anymore and price is coming down a lot, and keep my STI for those fun days. Daily driving in stop-and-go traffic doesn't quite make sense to me in a gasoline car if one can afford an EV, and the maintenance of ICE is a pita too.
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:36 PM   #11
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As mentioned this isn't really much or a prediction. Global car sales have stalled and regressed and even if and when the market grows EV will be a bigger part. That said it will be a very long time before EV sales surpass combustion sales.

EV is still very expensive and at some point all the incentives and rebates will stop.
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:43 PM   #12
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That’s what was said about CUVs vs sedans.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:14 PM   #13
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I can't believe 300k people can handle driving one of those things
Have you driven one?


Honestly, it's the best commuter/DD I have ever owned.


Sure, there are better EV's out there (Tesla etc...) but for the type of vehicle it is (compact car) it's very nice and even the basic models are quite well equipped. We have heated seats front and rear, heated steering wheel, power all the things, bluetooth, back up camera blah blah blah. It's quiet, smooth and actually kind of tossable. I have managed to get the back end to step out, though it's hard to snap it back in Eco mode Non-Eco mode it's fairly torquey too, again, for what it is.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:23 PM   #14
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Have you driven one?


Honestly, it's the best commuter/DD I have ever owned.


Sure, there are better EV's out there (Tesla etc...) but for the type of vehicle it is (compact car) it's very nice and even the basic models are quite well equipped. We have heated seats front and rear, heated steering wheel, power all the things, bluetooth, back up camera blah blah blah. It's quiet, smooth and actually kind of tossable. I have managed to get the back end to step out, though it's hard to snap it back in Eco mode Non-Eco mode it's fairly torquey too, again, for what it is.
You be learnin' now
BTW it tops out at 93-94 mph.
I drive it like I stole it. Coming up on 5 years, no unexpected service visits.
Best DD I've ever owned as well.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:35 PM   #15
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That’s the problem with those things. EVERYBODY drives it like they stole it.
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Old 01-07-2019, 05:36 PM   #16
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That’s the problem with those things. EVERYBODY drives it like they stole it.
Not me, I drive in full on engineer mode.

Hmmmmmmm how long can I max out regen while not crashing into the line of cars in front of me and how long can I get more than 1 bar before I meet this guys bumper?


So yeah, if you get stuck behind a red one doing weird ****, sorry.
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Old 01-07-2019, 05:38 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Pre View Post
You be learnin' now
BTW it tops out at 93-94 mph.
I drive it like I stole it. Coming up on 5 years, no unexpected service visits.
Best DD I've ever owned as well.
Sheeeit, that was the first freeway onramp I took driving home from the dealership
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Old 01-07-2019, 06:06 PM   #18
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Not me, I drive in full on engineer mode.

Hmmmmmmm how long can I max out regen while not crashing into the line of cars in front of me and how long can I get more than 1 bar before I meet this guys bumper?


So yeah, if you get stuck behind a red one doing weird ****, sorry.
Driving it like you stole a Prius. Cheater.
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Old 01-07-2019, 06:36 PM   #19
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That’s the problem with those things. EVERYBODY drives it like they stole it.
I don't speed on city streets bruh. Highway is fair game in fast lane. I'm talking cornering. I definitely push the tires and chassis to the max. It's a fun car to drive given what it is.
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Old 01-07-2019, 06:55 PM   #20
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All that weight down low really helps.
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Old 01-07-2019, 06:59 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by littledrummerboy View Post
No problem Engineering Explained's videos are awesome. I like my gasoline cars (heck I dd an STI) and EVs too.

Personally, I'd like to get into an EV now that range isn't an issue anymore and price is coming down a lot, and keep my STI for those fun days. Daily driving in stop-and-go traffic doesn't quite make sense to me in a gasoline car if one can afford an EV, and the maintenance of ICE is a pita too.
I'd venture that my Model 3 is every bit as fun as a STI. It's quick.
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:06 PM   #22
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Probably just as quick, but more repeatable and more eerie.

Have not drive a Model 3 yet, but I have driven a P85D and a P100D Model S (neighbor had the 85D, traded for a Hellcat, then traded the Hellcat on a 100D) and JFC. All that violence, but no noise. It's like being attacked by a ninja. It's going to happen, someday, then it does and you're left confused, shaken and happy to be alive. ICE cars are like being attacked by a Jersey Shore guido. You know it's going to happen, you are told it's going to happen (repeatedly) and when it finally does happen you're left feeling underwhelmed.
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:15 PM   #23
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I for one Love Nissan for their choice of battery Chemistry, and would purchase one in a heartbeat over a Tesla. I feel the safety built into Nissans Chemistry is worth it in the long run.
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:23 PM   #24
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I for one Love Nissan for their choice of battery Chemistry, and would purchase one in a heartbeat over a Tesla. I feel the safety built into Nissans Chemistry is worth it in the long run.
Eh, it was kind of required really. Nissan decided to make the Leaf the VW Beetle of the modern age. Ugly, well priced and air cooled Bit them in the ass the first couple years, but it is better now. I do wish it had liquid cooling, but they did a good job.
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:39 PM   #25
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Probably just as quick, but more repeatable and more eerie.

Have not drive a Model 3 yet, but I have driven a P85D and a P100D Model S (neighbor had the 85D, traded for a Hellcat, then traded the Hellcat on a 100D) and JFC. All that violence, but no noise. It's like being attacked by a ninja. It's going to happen, someday, then it does and you're left confused, shaken and happy to be alive. ICE cars are like being attacked by a Jersey Shore guido. You know it's going to happen, you are told it's going to happen (repeatedly) and when it finally does happen you're left feeling underwhelmed.
Your neighbor sounds like my people when it comes to ditching cars for the next new thing.
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