The Next Stage Of The Electric Vehicle Boom

[AVANTI R5]

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Transportation needs to clean up its act. As we edge closer and closer to a greenhouse gas emissions tipping point toward catastrophic climate change, it becomes harder to deny that the carbon-spewing internal combustion engine’s days are numbered. Back in 2017, the Economist announced the “death of the internal combustion engine,” saying that “The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.”

The reasons for moving away from gasoline are myriad--looking beyond the issue of carbon emissions there are still plenty of other reasons that internal combustion engines will become a thing of the past in the near future. As ABC Australia reports, “the need to reduce emissions isn't the only driver for a transition to cleaner transport. Concerns over the security of our petrol and diesel supply, shifts in international car manufacturing trends and the health impacts of exhaust fumes are piquing interest in greener options.”

But what exactly will the engines of the future look like? While there are already plenty of models on the road, from Tesla to the Nissan Leaf, it’s still hard to say exactly what the next few decades have in store for the transportation industry. In fact, one large question still remains: electric or hydrogen?

So far, the electric car has clearly dominated the hydrogen-based model. One look at what’s available on the market makes this clear. In fact, electric vehicles are ahead by such a wide margin that many consumers haven’t even heard of hydrogen fuel cells or don’t understand the difference between hydrogen cars and battery-powered electric vehicles. A How Stuff Works article on the subject begins “Most people know by now what an electric car is [...] But what in the world is a hydrogen fuel cell car?”


Well, according to How Stuff Works, it’s another type of electric car that “runs on a motor powered by electricity. What makes it different from a battery-electric vehicle (or BEV) is where the electricity comes from. Instead of a battery, a hydrogen fuel cell car has, well, a hydrogen fuel cell. This is a device that takes hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe, and generates electricity from it while the car is running. In effect, a hydrogen fuel cell is a kind of battery that makes electricity on the fly.” sounds pretty good, no? So why isn’t it in wider use? And will it ever be?

Currently the biggest challenge for hydrogen-powered cars is a lack of infrastructure. Much like our trusty old internal combustion engines, hydrogen cars need to be refueled periodically, and currently there are next to no refueling stations in existence and producing them on a commercial level will require lots of investment, time, and resources.

Electric vehicles also have their fair share of downsides, however. For one, the most common forms of EV batteries are dependent on lithium, a non-renewable element. Adding another wrinkle, the lithium market is almost entirely controlled by China, making the energy security of electric cars a major source of uncertainty going forward, especially in light of the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China.

Hydrogen fuel cells, while they have not yet been produced on any major commercial scale, are finally beginning to be adopted by the shipping industry--one of the heaviest polluting sectors. If this move proves to be an economically successful one for the shipping industry, perhaps this could be the beginning of a sea change (so to speak) for the transportation sector.

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[godfather2112]

I think it would be damn challenging to try and convince the public that hydrogen is cleaner / less impact on the world than EV. I’m not saying it’s accurate but EV is the exciting trend, companies are pouring billions into r&d, manufacturing, etc of EV technology and buyers seem to think a hydrogen car getting in a crash would create a bomb (which is obviously false).

I think hydrogen could possibly be the tech of the future but it will take some serious negative events for EV favor to fall out. As the article stated, if resources are mostly controlled by China, and China decides to **** over manufacturers either by cutting supply or raising cost of material, maybe that would be enough pain for people to want to find alternative means. The other possibility and I think more realistic is when people realize the massive impact to destroying land and the landscape in South America. The Andes, where most lithium is mined will continue to be carved out at a faster rate. Trees will be destroyed, water likely polluted, loss of wildlife, etc. The world is waking up and realizing we need to do the least we can in making a negative impact on this world. If hydrogen makes the least impact and also equal to or lower than EV, well, the choice seems obvious.

[mhoward1]

in truth we are dealing with two issues. Energy creation and energy storage. With Fuel Cells we put the creation right in the vehicle, but it's still "expensive" to create the fuel.

The advantage of battery tech is you can create the power fairly cheaply at a slower rate, but use as needed. Batteries can also be "expensive", but they are more than a single use.

I really hope that there are significant discoveries that either allow better lithium recycling, solid lithium (or crystalline) use, or completely new materials like Alluminum/Oxygen matrixes.

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by mhoward1

in truth we are dealing with two issues. Energy creation and energy storage. With Fuel Cells we put the creation right in the vehicle, but it's still "expensive" to create the fuel.

The advantage of battery tech is you can create the power fairly cheaply at a slower rate, but use as needed. Batteries can also be "expensive", but they are more than a single use.

I really hope that there are significant discoveries that either allow better lithium recycling, solid lithium (or crystalline) use, or completely new materials like Alluminum/Oxygen matrixes.

Agreed. I have no doubt that battery charging will come relatively close to what fueling your car with gas is. Hell, do any of you remember how long it took to charge your RC remote control car during the 90’s? I think it was 2-4 hours for 20 minutes of use. Now it’s like 30-45 minutes for 2 hours of use. Somehow some way there needs to be a breakthrough in technology that allows for less batteries for equal or further range while also having relatively quick charging.

Ultimately in the rather mid to long run, I see electricity being equal to the cost of gas. Electric providers will see the opportunity to make money hand over fist and with monopolies in each area, you’re more or less screwed. Not to mention the taxes that will be lost by not using fuel, states won’t let that revenue stream go away.

[dwf137]

ICE isn't going to disappear any time soon. Those who don't like footsteps on their lawn can rejoice, you'll very likely be able to drive your car to your grave.

The "well to wheel" energy required for hydrogen is currently similar to gasoline. It's currently not a solution to reduce our energy footprint for transportation. It's also largely created from fossil fuels, so it will never gain support of environmentalists. If those things change, maybe we'll see more hydrogen cars. Thankfully Japan is pushing it forward, so there will still be technology development on that front in case someone has some crazy breakthrough in hydrogen production.

The Truth about Hydrogen - YouTube

The Truth about Hydrogen - YouTube

It is also time to get serious about recycling batteries...

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by dwf137

ICE isn't going to disappear any time soon. Those who don't like footsteps on their lawn can rejoice, you'll very likely be able to drive your car to your grave.

The "well to wheel" energy required for hydrogen is currently similar to gasoline. It's currently not a solution to reduce our energy footprint for transportation. It's also largely created from fossil fuels, so it will never gain support of environmentalists. If those things change, maybe we'll see more hydrogen cars. Thankfully Japan is pushing it forward, so there will still be technology development on that front in case someone has some crazy breakthrough in hydrogen production.

The Truth about Hydrogen - YouTube


It is also time to get serious about recycling batteries...

Saw that video a little while back, it’s a pretty easy and well done explanation of the draw back of hydrogen over electricity as it is now. Agreed that there needs to be a process on recycling the batteries as well as motors. My concern is that EV cars will become just like an appliance to where you toss it out and get a new one once the performance has degraded enough. Since maintenance is really low and manufacturers make a lot of money of oem parts / service, I can realistically see manufacturers not offering battery replacements or motors past 100k in an effort to push more vehicles and revenue. That said. I see a solid opportunity for aftermarket batteries and motors.

[Keshav]

it won't matter. we're all gonna die. just like what happened with Net Neutrality. Millions dead in the streets. Plastic straws up their noses. We should have listened to the Malthusians because they've been predicting this for hundreds of years.

[heavyD]

Next stage of the boom? Don’t you have to have a 1st boom for a 2nd stage of a boom?

[mhoward1]

Originally Posted by heavyD

Next stage of the boom? Don’t you have to have a 1st boom for a 2nd stage of a boom?

I think anytime you see a ~700% increase in a short amount of time with anything it a boom in it's area, even on a small scale. To me a boom is defined as a rapid increase in a short amount of time.

if anyone is using the scale of all automotive sales, then it seems small, but so does an atomic explosion on the total scale of the surface of the earth.

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by heavyD

Next stage of the boom? Don’t you have to have a 1st boom for a 2nd stage of a boom?

Have you tried looking outside the United States? Ev is exploding at a damn fast pace in Europe, Norway, China. Like or dislike Tesla, their growth has been pretty damn solid especially considering the 3 series is outselling all German equivalents. Let’s not forget the hundreds of billions being invested by the autos to bring EV’s to the market.

But yeah, no EV boom happening at all: None what so ever.

[heavyD]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

Have you tried looking outside the United States? Ev is exploding at a damn fast pace in Europe, Norway, China. Like or dislike Tesla, their growth has been pretty damn solid especially considering the 3 series is outselling all German equivalents. Let’s not forget the hundreds of billions being invested by the autos to bring EV’s to the market.

But yeah, no EV boom happening at all: None what so ever.

I consider SUV's booming. EV's are gaining momentum and quite frankly I don't care about Europe or China. Europe is tiny and densely populated. You can travel country to country via rail and many don't own vehicles in the first place. BTW last I heard EV's sales have been declining in China by double digits. Meanwhile in North America the population is spread out along three of the largest geographical countries in the world where millions travel long distances daily. What flies in Europe doesn't necessarily fly here and I just can't get on board with the pretentious EV cults and fanboys and their "OMG EV's are taking over!" nonsense. I'm not denying the inevitability that one day EV's will surpass ICE but let's wait until it actually happens before we dance in the streets.

[dclin]

I think one thing that would bring EVs to the main stream quickly would be in-road wireless charging. That would eliminate the main concerns of EVs - the energy density and the cost to have what people think is enough energy density in thier EV.

Not going to happen in the US first though - probably either China or a 'test' city in the Middle East, where you have either an authoritarian government with incentives to move the needle quickly, or have extra cash. Or both.

Or, just found this - Sweden. https://www.greencarreports.com/news...ound-in-sweden