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Old 04-28-2022, 10:18 AM   #26
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I would really love to get one of these before they are gone but I don't have anywhere to store it and they don't make great winter cars.
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Old 04-28-2022, 11:50 AM   #27
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I think this just became the one of the most appealing cars on the market. Slightly less power than an M2 but a couple of hundred pounds lighter. I have to say the few of these I have seen in person look pretty good.
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Old 04-28-2022, 12:10 PM   #28
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But think of it as a sign off car. 6MT 100% Pure ICE going away in just a few years. What a final one, if you picked this up. No wasted mileage driving it to work or doing dumb **** like commuting and errands. Strictly for aggresssion in the corners on the weekends.
For sure, there's an allure there. "People buying more than they usually would because of the seemingly impending extinction of ICE vehicles." Some sort of FOMO. I wonder if OEM's have identified any sales impact from this yet, or coined a term for it.

Anyhow that's basically what the GR86 is for me - really it would be enough. The Supra question is whether the big power is worth the cost and small loss of practicality (because it's gonna get used.) For me, probably not. I've been content enough with power to leave my WRX stock for 7 years, for example. Finally AP'd it last year, and only for those sweet, sweet drivability improvements. Really wish I did that sooner
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Old 04-28-2022, 12:36 PM   #29
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It's not just the big power. If you have been used to 4-cylinder turbos, the BMW inline 6 turbo is a massive upgrade in smoothness, power, power delivery, etc while still maintaining solid fuel economy for its power level. Such a joy to run those sweet engines hard and unfortunately something that's going to eventually go away in a decade or less.
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Old 04-28-2022, 05:57 PM   #30
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The Supra and M2 are more than just a "large power" vehicle. They are balanced so well, the handling is amazing, brakes, overall driving experience. If all anyone is after is big power, just go buy a big V8 domestic. I personally prefer the M2 over Supra but both are incredibly rewarding vehicles to drive and if you're just freeway or straight lining throttle mashing, these cars simply are not the best choice for that.
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Old 04-28-2022, 08:33 PM   #31
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For sure, there's an allure there. "People buying more than they usually would because of the seemingly impending extinction of ICE vehicles." Some sort of FOMO. I wonder if OEM's have identified any sales impact from this yet, or coined a term for it.
I donít see it that way. With a manual finally itís a true drivers car to me. As long as they donít jack the price up it represents one of the best bangs for the buck out there. Itís not FOMO either. The M2 and M2C have been available for years. Some people were landing Supras for 49-50k last year. If you look at the potential in the aftermarket itís a lot of car for the money. I was just saying that I wouldnít waste miles on the thing commuting or going to the grocery store. It was built to corner, quickly, not do **** youíd do in a Camry.
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Old 04-28-2022, 09:52 PM   #32
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I've owned a lot of cars. The Supra is one of my favorites, it has distinctive styling, good tech and features, very direct handling, it's comfortable and sporty at the same time, and has tons of aftermarket support. I'm super happy for those that really wanted a manual option, I just hope dealer greed doesn't ruin it.
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Old 04-28-2022, 10:06 PM   #33
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I've owned a lot of cars. The Supra is one of my favorites, it has distinctive styling, good tech and features, very direct handling, it's comfortable and sporty at the same time, and has tons of aftermarket support. I'm super happy for those that really wanted a manual option, I just hope dealer greed doesn't ruin it.
I suspect after 2Q when we enter full blown recession territory, interest rates go way up demand will fall off a cliff and inventory will start to accumulate. Hopefully prices will start to fall then and we can get some deals.
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Old 04-28-2022, 10:16 PM   #34
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I suspect after 2Q when we enter full blown recession territory, interest rates go way up demand will fall off a cliff and inventory will start to accumulate. Hopefully prices will start to fall then and we can get some deals.
I dunno. The Supra is made by Magna Steyr in Austria and there has been real challenges with parts due to the war in Ukraine (Ukraine makes all the wiring harnesses and other parts). Just looking at Autotrader there are only 179 new Supras for sale which means many of those are in transit, or already sold orders or have big markups. I just donít see production ramping up anytime soon enough. Same with the GR86. They are getting very few and wait times are minimum 6-12 months right now. It may only get worse.
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Old 04-28-2022, 10:50 PM   #35
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I suspect after 2Q when we enter full blown recession territory, interest rates go way up demand will fall off a cliff and inventory will start to accumulate. Hopefully prices will start to fall then and we can get some deals.
Um, try Q4 or Q1 2023 for that recession. I think we still have some time before that rug gets pulled.
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Old 04-28-2022, 10:52 PM   #36
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Um, try Q4 or Q1 2023 for that recession. I think we still have some time before that rug gets pulled.
They just reported today that 1Q GDP was -1.4%, two quarters of negative growth = recession.
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Old 04-28-2022, 11:04 PM   #37
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It's not surprising the war in the Ukraine and China's lockdowns are going to have massive global impacts. The Trump administration should have raised interest rates prior to Covid but they were printing lots of money too and trying to keep the economy artificially inflated with low interest rates. I'm a conservative but I watched it happening and was not happy. Pandemic and now the verge of WWIII and there's a ton of uncertainty. What is certain is continued supply chain issues that will continue to affect the entire auto industry for another 1-2+ years.

Chevy and Ford are on the record stating that they are changing their model and dealers will no longer have more than 30+ days of inventory on hand. They finally figure out that making more vehicles than there is demand then having to use massive rebates and marketing dollars to sell them just is not profitable. They are better off selling fewer vehicles at a higher price and saving money on rebates and marketing.

I personally think the entire industry will follow.
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Old 04-29-2022, 12:08 AM   #38
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They just reported today that 1Q GDP was -1.4%, two quarters of negative growth = recession.
Um, no. Thatís only one indicator of 5 needed for a recession.

ďThe NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail salesĒ
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Old 04-29-2022, 12:20 AM   #39
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It's not surprising the war in the Ukraine and China's lockdowns are going to have massive global impacts. The Trump administration should have raised interest rates prior to Covid but they were printing lots of money too and trying to keep the economy artificially inflated with low interest rates. I'm a conservative but I watched it happening and was not happy. Pandemic and now the verge of WWIII and there's a ton of uncertainty. What is certain is continued supply chain issues that will continue to affect the entire auto industry for another 1-2+ years.

Chevy and Ford are on the record stating that they are changing their model and dealers will no longer have more than 30+ days of inventory on hand. They finally figure out that making more vehicles than there is demand then having to use massive rebates and marketing dollars to sell them just is not profitable. They are better off selling fewer vehicles at a higher price and saving money on rebates and marketing.

I personally think the entire industry will follow.
The shut down in China spreads well beyond chips for auto. Nearly every industry relies on chips to some extent. Not to mention the massive amounts of manufacturing that comes out of China. The war with Russia / Ukraine has made access to resources more difficult and expensive.

I think Poland and several other countries are having to buy natural gas from Germany instead of directly from Russia which will put more pressure on gas pricing for Europe and availability.

You have rents skyrocketing which is reducing the amounts consumers can spend, not to mention rising costs on everything. Amazon lowered guidance amid slowing consuming spending. Iíd say Amazon is a solid benchmark or measuring stick on how well / much people are spending and contributing to the economy.

Iím mostly cash in my investment portfolio, minus some commercial real estate stuff. Once the rug gets pulled and people are forced to liquidate their toys or assets, Iíll be on that buying spree.

The upcoming recession will be mild but itís going to be a long one. At least thatís my opinion.
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Old 04-29-2022, 12:57 AM   #40
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The shut down in China spreads well beyond chips for auto. Nearly every industry relies on chips to some extent. Not to mention the massive amounts of manufacturing that comes out of China. The war with Russia / Ukraine has made access to resources more difficult and expensive.

I think Poland and several other countries are having to buy natural gas from Germany instead of directly from Russia which will put more pressure on gas pricing for Europe and availability.

You have rents skyrocketing which is reducing the amounts consumers can spend, not to mention rising costs on everything. Amazon lowered guidance amid slowing consuming spending. Iíd say Amazon is a solid benchmark or measuring stick on how well / much people are spending and contributing to the economy.

Iím mostly cash in my investment portfolio, minus some commercial real estate stuff. Once the rug gets pulled and people are forced to liquidate their toys or assets, Iíll be on that buying spree.

The upcoming recession will be mild but itís going to be a long one. At least thatís my opinion.
Iíll be happy if I stayed employed. Ď06 to Ď12, oh my. Was not fun.

Iím definitely concerned with the housing market. Itís just been an insane whirlwind during the last 2 years. People and companies buying up homes like they were going to quit making them. Iíve had my money ready for remodel for 1.5 years trying to wait until things stabilize, both materials dropping in price back to something reasonable as well as labor but it seems there is no end in sight. What happens when all these people panic moved, realize it was a mistake, spread themselves to thin for an overpriced home, etc? Randy and Karen really wreck **** when they go nuts. Past 2 years I have not done anything major, just done my best to lean on the back foot and ride the wave. Other people have been going bat **** crazy buying homes, cars, etc. And as thing open back up, Iím seeing the worst behavior of my lifetime. Whether that be running errands driving locally, behavior at the gym, grocery store, name it. People have lost their minds.
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Old 04-29-2022, 03:16 AM   #41
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Old 04-29-2022, 11:05 AM   #42
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Iíll be happy if I stayed employed. Ď06 to Ď12, oh my. Was not fun.

Iím definitely concerned with the housing market. Itís just been an insane whirlwind during the last 2 years. People and companies buying up homes like they were going to quit making them. Iíve had my money ready for remodel for 1.5 years trying to wait until things stabilize, both materials dropping in price back to something reasonable as well as labor but it seems there is no end in sight. What happens when all these people panic moved, realize it was a mistake, spread themselves to thin for an overpriced home, etc? Randy and Karen really wreck **** when they go nuts. Past 2 years I have not done anything major, just done my best to lean on the back foot and ride the wave. Other people have been going bat **** crazy buying homes, cars, etc. And as thing open back up, Iím seeing the worst behavior of my lifetime. Whether that be running errands driving locally, behavior at the gym, grocery store, name it. People have lost their minds.
Thereís only 2 real ways that housing prices meaningfully come down. Mass unemployment and people need to sell before foreclosure. The second, while rates stay elevated, home builders crank out new home production. Home values will likely just stabilize at most (hell, they are still rallying like crazy in salt lake). Home inventories are still insanely low, people if mid size homes are staying out and not going to more larger / luxury homes which further constrains i
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Old 04-29-2022, 03:47 PM   #43
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At some point the housing prices have to come down they are at the same bubble level as before. Friends neighbor had 20 offers on their house, no inspection site unseen.

I am going to buy in a few years and I really hope something happens to reduce cost.

As to the Supra, glad they are giving it a manual option especially on the 6. No intention to trade mine in just for that. Plan on keeping it for a long time, best car I've ever owned and I had an M3 among others.
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Old 04-29-2022, 03:56 PM   #44
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At some point the housing prices have to come down they are at the same bubble level as before. Friends neighbor had 20 offers on their house, no inspection site unseen.

I am going to buy in a few years and I really hope something happens to reduce cost.
Unlikely. Just because values are high doesn't mean it's a bubble. The previous issue was the sub-prime crisis and bad mortgages. This is just price inflation. They may level off for a bit, but I highly doubt there's any bubble that's going to burst unless we end up in a depression or something.
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Old 04-29-2022, 04:06 PM   #45
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Unlikely. Just because values are high doesn't mean it's a bubble. The previous issue was the sub-prime crisis and bad mortgages. This is just price inflation. They may level off for a bit, but I highly doubt there's any bubble that's going to burst unless we end up in a depression or something.
As far as I can tell, the housing situation is related to lack of construction, when the last housing bubble happened, construction went way down and has never fully recovered to keep pace with demand for new housing, so now we have a pretty big housing shortage, which is driving prices.

A lot of what we are calling out of control inflation is probably just a bounce after 40 years where we have used financial policy to suppress wages and in turn spending, followed by a big wave of government handouts. Suddenly people have some power to demand higher wages and at the same time cash in their pocket so they are spending it.

Anyway not sure if Toyota should do a Supra Manual but who does not want one, that truly loves sports cars. Hands down the modern automatic is better but every one that has driven a manual almost would still rather have a manual as it is just more engauging.
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Old 04-29-2022, 07:16 PM   #46
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At some point the housing prices have to come down they are at the same bubble level as before. Friends neighbor had 20 offers on their house, no inspection site unseen.

I am going to buy in a few years and I really hope something happens to reduce cost.

As to the Supra, glad they are giving it a manual option especially on the 6. No intention to trade mine in just for that. Plan on keeping it for a long time, best car I've ever owned and I had an M3 among others.
Sure, at some point they will come down but they will likely be grossly above where they are now. At best, it will turn to buyers market where youíre not putting money over asking and seller pays closing. The pure dollar amount might seem high but interest rates were low and payments low. Hell, Iím at 2.75% on a $500k mortgage (put down $100k) and my payment is under $2,300. 2 bedroom apartments are going for close to that if not that much. Several variables as to why homes wonít likely come crashing down. 1: low inventory. 2: Even as home builders begin ramping up (eventually) costs are higher and therefor will keep home pricing elevated.

Unless we have rampant deflation and 08 level of unemployment, homes are likely not coming down and if they do, itís marginal.
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Old 04-29-2022, 07:38 PM   #47
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Crazy interest rates will hopefully put a damper on the rise of both home prices as well as car prices, but it doesn't seem to be... even with rising rates, consumer spending is still going up.

Heck, I'm part of the problem. I'm looking at either buying up (my 375k house in 2015 is now worth over a mil), or taking out a second mortgage that's larger than my outstanding debt on the house to do an addition. The current interest rates are a slight deterrent, but not enough to stop me.

And I'm also stockpiling some funds so I can pull the trigger on a BRZ in a couple of years.
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Old 04-29-2022, 08:37 PM   #48
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Crazy interest rates will hopefully put a damper on the rise of both home prices as well as car prices, but it doesn't seem to be... even with rising rates, consumer spending is still going up.

Heck, I'm part of the problem. I'm looking at either buying up (my 375k house in 2015 is now worth over a mil), or taking out a second mortgage that's larger than my outstanding debt on the house to do an addition. The current interest rates are a slight deterrent, but not enough to stop me.

And I'm also stockpiling some funds so I can pull the trigger on a BRZ in a couple of years.
Consumer spending is decreasing, FYI. Letís be honest though, right now interest rates are not crazy, they are actually normal. Every became so jaded with insanely low rates that we have forgotten what ďnormalĒ interest rates look like. That said, they are about to get ridiculous
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Old 04-30-2022, 10:43 AM   #49
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I'm looking at either buying up (my 375k house in 2015 is now worth over a mil...
That's crazy. We're in a similar boat, but it took us 9 more years to get there (bought for 360k in 2006, ~950k now).

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfather2112
Letís be honest though, right now interest rates are not crazy, they are actually normal.
Hell, they're still low. I'd love to see rates crank up so I can earn a little on the cash we've stashed.
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Old 05-05-2022, 10:15 AM   #50
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The Toyota Supraís New Manual Is a Tweaked BMW Unit From ZF

In case you haven't heard, Toyota is finally giving the 3.0-liter Supra a six-speed manual transmission. Toyota's original literature on the subject was admittedly quite vague as to specifically what transmission this car would use, saying that the gearbox was "engineered and tuned specifically for use with the coupeís straight-six engine." However, it immediately turned around and revealed that "the engineering team modified an existing transmission housing, driveshaft and gear set."

I was curious as to what "existing" parts will be lurking in the middle of the upcoming manual GR Supra, so I reached out to Toyota for some answers. And as we sort of suspected all along, it's essentially a ZF-manufactured BMW unit tuned by Toyota, following the spirit of the rest of the car. This also dispels any remaining notions that this may have been a true, from-scratch-by-Toyota effort or perhaps a beefed-up, rear-wheel-drive variant of the GR Corolla transmission.

"The parts used in the gearbox come from a combination of ZF manufactured manual transmissions, but the parts combination is exclusive to GR Supra," a Toyota spokesperson told The Drive. "Toyota partnered with ZF and BMW on the design/layout of shift lever/pedal, decision of final gear ratio, tuning of iMT [rev-matching and upshift smoothing] function, and shift feel."

This Supra-specific gearbox even gets its own, unique transmission code within BMW's parts catalog: GS6L50TZ. For what it's worth, the code for the manual found in the overseas and less powerful BMW Z4 sDrive20i happens to be GS6L40LZ, according to this SupraMKV forum post. Per BMW transmission designation rules, the difference between "L50T" and L40L" indicates a deviation in transmission "type" and gearset. The "GS6" and "Z" bits of the codes indicate a six-speed manual and ZF as the manufacturer, respectively. For further reference, the manual found in the current M3 and M4 is designated GS6-45BZ.

Anyhow, some Toyota-specific work on the Supra's gearbox allegedly included removing the acoustic package to cut down on weight, a "newly engineered large diameter clutch with a reinforced diaphragm spring," a shorter final drive ratio of 3.46 versus the automatic Supra's 3.15 to improve low-end acceleration, and a lever ratio that's said to minimize shift effort, as well as the specific weight and shape of the 200-gram shift knob.

In case you missed it, the row-your-own transmission will be available only with the Supra's 382-horsepower, 3.0-liter, straight-six engine; the 2.0-liter four will remain auto-only. Interestingly, the foreign version of the BMW Z4 does this the other way around, offering a manual on the four-cylinder sDrive20i version but not for the straight-six M40i.
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