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Old 12-03-2017, 10:30 PM   #251
RandR
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99% of the time, I agree. But they might actually have a point with the model 3.
They certainly do, we have a body over here called the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission which looks at these issues.

If you read the public releases in time sequence it looks like "misleading and deceptive conduct in commerce or industry" - the issue will be if there has been complete disclosure and that will require a trawl through the SEC filings on Edgar.

What I have noticed, is there is a disconnect between general statements on growth relative to the risk sections within the filings. It could be argued the public statements are highly unbalanced relative to the filings.

The test will be if a group of people relied on specific information to make an investment decision and that information turned out to be wrong or rater misleading.

I notice a number of people on here don't understand embedded generation (e.g. roof top panels and power walls) and the impact this has on local distribution grids. A network has to be balanced at a certain frequency and load to ensure power distribution to all within tight specifications. Think of it as a series of carefully controlled canals - embedded generation is equivalent to adding loads of little canals all over the place each one with varying outputs that disrupts the nature and may destroy the overall flow. This will cause a catastrophic system failure.

The only way to manage this is to beef up the network across the board, more cable, lower resistivity (high expense) cabling, more step down/up transformers and substations etc etc. Unfortunately lay people do not understand this, what they will understand is the cost added to their power bills. Its a different but very expensive version of "pay to play" and the end users that want to use this stuff will ultimately have to pay.
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Old 12-04-2017, 08:36 AM   #252
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Crappy short clip of Model X towing a holiday float Saturday night in Encinitas:
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Old 12-04-2017, 10:52 AM   #253
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Unless youíre entirely off grid you gotta pay for infrastructure like the rest of us.

Check out LEED zero or passive house. Thatís how you stick to the man! Start a little garden, learn to hunt and before you know it itís time to write your manifesto.
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Old 12-04-2017, 12:00 PM   #254
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandR View Post
I notice a number of people on here don't understand embedded generation (e.g. roof top panels and power walls) and the impact this has on local distribution grids. A network has to be balanced at a certain frequency and load to ensure power distribution to all within tight specifications. Think of it as a series of carefully controlled canals - embedded generation is equivalent to adding loads of little canals all over the place each one with varying outputs that disrupts the nature and may destroy the overall flow. This will cause a catastrophic system failure.
Sounds like you're vaguely referring to power factors, suggesting that they're going to cause catastrophic failures? Reading some old, out of date blog post somewhere?

1. Power factors are here to stay. The majority of loads we put into houses and buildings now (electronic) are out of phase with the grid... Most commercial consumers pay for this, while residential customers don't. This isn't a new problem, this is a problem that has existed for years.
2. Solar inverters, as far as I've read recently, are regulated to be very close to a power factor of 1, meaning that they do not substantially change the phase of the electricity input. The inverters need to regulate what they put back into the grid...
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Old 12-05-2017, 06:43 AM   #255
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Sounds like you're vaguely referring to power factors, suggesting that they're going to cause catastrophic failures? Reading some old, out of date blog post somewhere?

1. Power factors are here to stay. The majority of loads we put into houses and buildings now (electronic) are out of phase with the grid... Most commercial consumers pay for this, while residential customers don't. This isn't a new problem, this is a problem that has existed for years.
2. Solar inverters, as far as I've read recently, are regulated to be very close to a power factor of 1, meaning that they do not substantially change the phase of the electricity input. The inverters need to regulate what they put back into the grid...
No - I'm talking about whole of network balance. Household embedded generation can be dealt with at a price - which is still significant and largely causes local area problems in relation to distribution networks.

However local area distribution networks are connected to transmission networks.

These are often linked using "interconnectors" thus different networks end up being connected with different netwrok characteristics and generation mixes.

Small instabilities in one part of a network can cascade through a whole system causing what is known as a code black (at least over here). Basically a system wide failure - (This recently happened in South Australia).

The system has to be shut down to protect network infrastructure and consumers alike.

The more embedded generation and the greater variety of intermittent generation (e.g. renewables) the more difficult it is to maintain a stable frequency balanced network. The cost of upgraded infrastructure and management systems goes right through the network.

The run to EVs without recognising the total potential cost has serious ramifications - something that has to be considered in the round.
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Old 12-05-2017, 12:20 PM   #256
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Thinking about Tesla's Semi trucks this morning and realized they would be prime for the Luxury RV market.

*With even more space for batteries (extended wheelbase from the Semi), and 1/4 less weight they could probably go 1000-1500 miles on a charge

* Plenty of power for the accessories, and would no longer need propane and gas for a generator.

* price range already within reach since the market shows they are already in the $250K range, so an extra $25-$50K would probably accepted due to the no gas/propane/diesel costs.

* if they could get Autonomous driving to work it would be a huge add value (Go to sleep at X, wake up at vacation destination Y).
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Old 12-05-2017, 12:36 PM   #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandR View Post
No - I'm talking about whole of network balance. Household embedded generation can be dealt with at a price - which is still significant and largely causes local area problems in relation to distribution networks.

However local area distribution networks are connected to transmission networks.

These are often linked using "interconnectors" thus different networks end up being connected with different netwrok characteristics and generation mixes.

Small instabilities in one part of a network can cascade through a whole system causing what is known as a code black (at least over here). Basically a system wide failure - (This recently happened in South Australia).

The system has to be shut down to protect network infrastructure and consumers alike.

The more embedded generation and the greater variety of intermittent generation (e.g. renewables) the more difficult it is to maintain a stable frequency balanced network. The cost of upgraded infrastructure and management systems goes right through the network.

The run to EVs without recognising the total potential cost has serious ramifications - something that has to be considered in the round.
Yes, power generation infrastructure needs to be "smart", but that's all regulated, at least here in the US. PV inverters have current overflow protections and regulated power factors so they're not throwing more VAR's into the grid than what the power company can handle. Those are the things that cause the "instabilities" you're referring to. Perhaps those protections don't exist in Australia?
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Old 12-05-2017, 12:50 PM   #258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhoward1 View Post
Thinking about Tesla's Semi trucks this morning and realized they would be prime for the Luxury RV market.

*With even more space for batteries (extended wheelbase from the Semi), and 1/4 less weight they could probably go 1000-1500 miles on a charge

* Plenty of power for the accessories, and would no longer need propane and gas for a generator.

* price range already within reach since the market shows they are already in the $250K range, so an extra $25-$50K would probably accepted due to the no gas/propane/diesel costs.

* if they could get Autonomous driving to work it would be a huge add value (Go to sleep at X, wake up at vacation destination Y).
This could be tricky as the semi is $250k but it is not a sleeper cab which would be more costly. RV/Motorhomes are an interesting business. The cost to produce motorhomes is relatively low compared to what they sell for, especially if they are diesel. Elon could enter that market and depending on margins, significantly undercut the competition. I think the issues or challenges he would face is providing charging stations at RV parks. I know most RV parks offer electricity but I donít know if they are setup to handle EV charging.

****, the RV market would be huge opportunity. However RV sales are only good during good economic times, if the economy takes a dump or retired folks are getting low on cash, the new RV sales take a half real quick.
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Old 12-05-2017, 01:11 PM   #259
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Al of this is well and good but at some point they have to make money. From the most recent earning:
Quote:
According to numbers released today (PDF), Tesla posted a $671 million loss on total revenues of nearly $3 billion in the third quarter of 2017.

Compare that to 2017ís second quarter, where Tesla posted a loss of $401 million after total revenues of $2.7 billion.
If losses continue to accelerate at the current pace there will either need to be significant changes or you will likely see them get sold off to a viable company.

Musk, to me, is too much smoke and mirrors....
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Old 12-05-2017, 01:49 PM   #260
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This could be tricky as the semi is $250k but it is not a sleeper cab which would be more costly. RV/Motorhomes are an interesting business. The cost to produce motorhomes is relatively low compared to what they sell for, especially if they are diesel. Elon could enter that market and depending on margins, significantly undercut the competition. I think the issues or challenges he would face is providing charging stations at RV parks. I know most RV parks offer electricity but I donít know if they are setup to handle EV charging.

****, the RV market would be huge opportunity. However RV sales are only good during good economic times, if the economy takes a dump or retired folks are getting low on cash, the new RV sales take a half real quick.
Non starter. Millennials and hipsters do not buy RV's. Close case.
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Old 12-05-2017, 02:06 PM   #261
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Non starter. Millennials and hipsters do not buy RV's. Close case.
Change the name from RV, to motorized tiny house...boom, overnight sales success.
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Old 12-05-2017, 02:13 PM   #262
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damn, I wish I had thought of that. I neglected how vulnerable the tiny millennial mind is to marketing hype. They will not know what hit them.
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Old 12-05-2017, 02:53 PM   #263
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damn, I wish I had thought of that. I neglected how vulnerable the tiny millennial mind is to marketing hype. They will not know what hit them.
Offer a free puppy with each sale and some Starbucks gift cards...
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Old 12-05-2017, 02:53 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by thill View Post
Al of this is well and good but at some point they have to make money. From the most recent earning:


If losses continue to accelerate at the current pace there will either need to be significant changes or you will likely see them get sold off to a viable company.

Musk, to me, is too much smoke and mirrors....
I believe at the current cash burn rate they have enough until August 2018. Iím assuming they will issue more long term debt and issue more common stock.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO View Post
Non starter. Millennials and hipsters do not buy RV's. Close case.
No, but those who do buy RVís have the same common complaint which is the cost of fuel. EV tech is not just limited to millennial, we need to be real about that. If Elon could provide an RV at the same or lesser cost it would be damn competitive.
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