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Old 04-04-2016, 11:15 AM   #226
mhoward1
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Implausible. We'll have run out of electrons by then.
Not to mention running out of wind and sunshine from all the extra solar panels and windmills.
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Old 04-04-2016, 11:45 AM   #227
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Not to mention running out of wind and sunshine from all the extra solar panels and windmills.
You saw this, I am gathering?

https://www.discovery.com/dscovrd/te...-from-the-sun/

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Old 04-04-2016, 11:49 AM   #228
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and this

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Old 04-04-2016, 12:19 PM   #229
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I found this interesting. Per Jalopnik,

Quote:
According to Tesla, Model 3 orders will not be first-come, first serve, but rather customers with more expensive configurations will get order priority over less expensive models. (Existing Model S and Model X owners get first crack too.)
http://jalopnik.com/this-is-the-best...l-3-1768865830

Can anyone else confirm this? If true, people wanting a base model or a sub $30k (after tax incentives) could be waiting a long time if the deposits actually translate to an order. By then the tax incentives could expire. It also would suck for people who waiting all day to place a deposit vs people who took 5 minutes to place a deposit online the next day.
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Old 04-04-2016, 12:48 PM   #230
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Well it is not perfect, but if you think of this as an Iphone instead of a car, which if you compare the cult like techiness of it all, they are quite similar. Some people will be waiting a very long time for a car. It is not for you or I to judge them. Their money and all that. Also, some people just want the option to buy. I read somewhere that you get your deposit back up until your model starts production. I am not sure if that means you actual model, or until 3 production starts. Whatever. For 35000 it will appeal to a great many people, for 60k, I am not so sure. Still it keeps moving along. IF they build a product and people want to buy it. Well then lets watch and see what happens. Will the big auto manufacturers respond? Do they want to fight for small percentages?
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Old 04-04-2016, 01:46 PM   #231
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The real problem is they don't work at night and marginal production above 40 deg Lat and where it gets cloudy or rains. Most times they won't save enough energy to pay for themselves unless your in areas like SW desert or So Cal sunny areas. Battery cars just move pollution to the bad neighborhoods where the power plant is unless you have good Hydroelectric production. But there is good news for whatever you want to believe and confirmation bias for all Reality is not as nice
https://energy-charts.de/power.htm
http://www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1...&mg=reno64-wsj
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:01 PM   #232
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Outrageous claim: After the techies, fanbois and dweezles get their model 3, the car is going to become an FR-S. As one of the "cars nobody wants" articles went, once those who "must have the car" got it, there was no longer a market for it. Gas is super cheap. People in their Taurus are trading in for an F-150 Crew Cab and laughing at the gas prices. Once the tax incentive is gone, Tesla will have to compete with real cars price wise. Don't know when, but I think Tesla is a shorting opportunity.....not a long opportunity. I see Elon cashing out at some point and the company going the way of Pontiac.
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:03 PM   #233
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Don't know when, but I think Tesla is a shorting opportunity.....not a long opportunity. I see Elon cashing out at some point and the company going the way of Pontiac.
You know, because oil/gasoline is an infinite resource...
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:30 PM   #234
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Non-base model 3 will be able to do this round trip. Regardless. Plug in when you get to his house. I assume he has electricity.

edit - and I see your location. You have about ~10 superchargers within a ~120 mile radius of you.
It's not as simple to say "X within 120 miles" because it's not like I can go 60 miles one way or 60 miles the opposite direction. To get to those that are 120 miles, I have to DRIVE that entire 120 miles.

Here's the thing about where I live, I can't go south and east, or I'd be driving in water (there is one near the entrance to the cape). Consider where I live to be the bottom right corner of a box. I have to go "away" from that corner to find a charging station. Admittedly there are 2 on the route to/from my brothers. One is 55 miles and the other 102 miles from my house.

Also, how do you know the non base model 3 will have extra distance? Because they're not saying that it will be capable of more than 215 miles at this time.

--kC

Last edited by KC; 04-04-2016 at 02:40 PM.
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:36 PM   #235
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I'm going to go out on a limb and predict 30% of the people who put a deposit will back out. Lots of people can put $1,000 on their credit card so they can post on Facebook how they reserved one. When it comes time to fork out the $35,000 it might be a different story
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:41 PM   #236
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I'm going to go out on a limb and predict 30% of the people who put a deposit will back out. Lots of people can put $1,000 on their credit card so they can post on Facebook how they reserved one. When it comes time to fork out the $35,000 it might be a different story
I don't know...400K people fork out $28K average a year for a Camry.
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:45 PM   #237
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I don't know...400K people fork out $28K average a year for a Camry.
more info.

2015 Toyota Camry XSE V6

0-60 mph 5.8

the mid sized sedan market is not the same demographic as the uppity 5/7 E/S class category.
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Old 04-04-2016, 03:06 PM   #238
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I don't know...400K people fork out $28K average a year for a Camry.
The average price for the 3 is probably $40-42k.
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Old 04-04-2016, 05:37 PM   #239
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It's not as simple to say "X within 120 miles" because it's not like I can go 60 miles one way or 60 miles the opposite direction. To get to those that are 120 miles, I have to DRIVE that entire 120 miles.

Here's the thing about where I live, I can't go south and east, or I'd be driving in water (there is one near the entrance to the cape). Consider where I live to be the bottom right corner of a box. I have to go "away" from that corner to find a charging station. Admittedly there are 2 on the route to/from my brothers. One is 55 miles and the other 102 miles from my house.

Also, how do you know the non base model 3 will have extra distance? Because they're not saying that it will be capable of more than 215 miles at this time.

--kC
He said the base model will be 215 mile range and that there will be additional trims. That means P/D models with AWD (dual axle motors), more power. Mo' power models have more range. This thing will top out 10k from the S base. So something like 35k base (with no fed incentives) to 60k loaded to the hilt. Some say the price won't go that high but I have little doubt. Look at the S. You can get a stripper or load the hell out of the thing into the 140k price range. There will definitely be a higher range model but the trick is how much is it gonna cost?
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Old 04-04-2016, 06:38 PM   #240
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Has it been discussed that this car will not come with a steering wheel? The one mounted to the car for the press release will be replaced by new "spaceship" controls. I am intrigued by this.
https://www.inverse.com/article/1376...-tesla-model-3

More on this. I am excited for SUPER HUD action.
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Old 04-04-2016, 09:57 PM   #241
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I'm going to go out on a limb and predict 30% of the people who put a deposit will back out. Lots of people can put $1,000 on their credit card so they can post on Facebook how they reserved one. When it comes time to fork out the $35,000 it might be a different story
30% is not bad at all. It seems that there is about 300,000 reservations right now, to put into perspective BMW sold 500,000 3 series globaly in 2015 which was their best year ever.

I put the $1000 and u didn't post anything anywhere but here.

People seem to forget that the EPA regulations are getting tougher, oil is not going to be cheap forever or last forever, and the Tesla Gigafactory will produce more batteries than all current battery facilities combined.
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Old 04-04-2016, 10:53 PM   #242
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People seem to forget that the EPA regulations are getting tougher, oil is not going to be cheap forever or last forever, and the Tesla Gigafactory will produce more batteries than all current battery facilities combined.
I didn't forget, that's why I didn't put down $1000. While it was refundable, I expect other excellent options to come up between now and when I think I would've received my car (~2020).
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Old 04-04-2016, 11:51 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by Jack View Post
Outrageous claim: After the techies, fanbois and dweezles get their model 3, the car is going to become an FR-S. As one of the "cars nobody wants" articles went, once those who "must have the car" got it, there was no longer a market for it. Gas is super cheap. People in their Taurus are trading in for an F-150 Crew Cab and laughing at the gas prices. Once the tax incentive is gone, Tesla will have to compete with real cars price wise. Don't know when, but I think Tesla is a shorting opportunity.....not a long opportunity. I see Elon cashing out at some point and the company going the way of Pontiac.
I'd wager that almost no one that reserved one cares about cheap gas. That's why none of the s***boxes that the other manufacturers calls EV's really sell.

But it is a good feeling that you're saving money anyway, even at today's gas prices.
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Old 04-04-2016, 11:55 PM   #244
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Admittedly there are 2 on the route to/from my brothers. One is 55 miles and the other 102 miles from my house.
Sounds perfect. So if you don't plug in at your brother's, you would want to stop for 13 minutes at the supercharger. 25 miles which you need, and 40 miles of "just in case" buffer. So you could cut it down to like 5 minutes on a really good day if you want to live on the edge.
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Old 04-04-2016, 11:57 PM   #245
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I'm going to go out on a limb and predict 30% of the people who put a deposit will back out. Lots of people can put $1,000 on their credit card so they can post on Facebook how they reserved one. When it comes time to fork out the $35,000 it might be a different story
Some people will leave, more people will come. I wouldn't guess anything less than 500k reservations with follow-through when the car hits production.
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Old 04-05-2016, 07:50 AM   #246
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Sounds perfect. So if you don't plug in at your brother's, you would want to stop for 13 minutes at the supercharger. 25 miles which you need, and 40 miles of "just in case" buffer. So you could cut it down to like 5 minutes on a really good day if you want to live on the edge.
I don't disagree with that. I'm trying to find ways to get into one that makes sense, because my commute is only 45 miles total and by the time the 3 comes, there should be more stations around, and added capacity at the ones already existing. Figure that there are 400k that are buying into one *right now*. What's that going to do if the infrastructure didn't grow with it? It simply has to grow, especially here on the east coast.

--kC
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Old 04-05-2016, 07:55 AM   #247
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I didn't forget, that's why I didn't put down $1000. While it was refundable, I expect other excellent options to come up between now and when I think I would've received my car (~2020).
I'm anxious to see what happens with the Bolt.

I've been playing around on Auto Trader, there are many Volts off-lease (2013's) that can be had, certified, for $14k or less with ~30k miles on them and I sit here scratching my head "why not?"

--kC
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:49 AM   #248
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I don't disagree with that. I'm trying to find ways to get into one that makes sense, because my commute is only 45 miles total and by the time the 3 comes, there should be more stations around, and added capacity at the ones already existing. Figure that there are 400k that are buying into one *right now*. What's that going to do if the infrastructure didn't grow with it? It simply has to grow, especially here on the east coast.

--kC
The infrastructure is growing in the South East some gas station now have EV chargers and Tesla is adding chargers. I don't really understand why is so hard to plug in your car at home when you get there from work... . If you are making a really long trip rent a car. The farthest I am willing to drive is 4 hours, If I am going farther than that I just by a plane ticket. EV is perfect for me; my commute to work is 30 minutes, the Atlanta airport is 3 hours from house and the Charlotte airport is 2 hours away. I also have solar panels so it makes sense.

By the way the national average work commute is 25.5 minutes

Quote:
Originally Posted by KC View Post
I'm anxious to see what happens with the Bolt.

I've been playing around on Auto Trader, there are many Volts off-lease (2013's) that can be had, certified, for $14k or less with ~30k miles on them and I sit here scratching my head "why not?"

--kC
Yeah used EV's are cheap look at the nissan leaf but IMO is because the federal incentives, the market knows that the owner really didn't pay 30k for their brand new cars. When the federal incentives end I think prices will go up.
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Old 04-05-2016, 10:47 AM   #249
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This is why I cannot relate to any of the anti-Tesla comments:

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Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Today's "BWest Byte" is 47%, for the percentage of Tesla Model Ss sold in the first half of this year that registered in California. Cory Johnson reports on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg West." (Source: Bloomberg)
And that's the S model, alone.


Now this is old info. So I'm sure for the % is even higher now. In my neighborhood, there are at least 15 Teslas, and now several of them are X models. But people in these parts love their cars.


/jaded SCIC
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Old 04-05-2016, 10:57 AM   #250
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Yeah but it'll take him about 5 minutes to refuel while the Tesla driver will have to wait over an hour, to be fully charged, while sipping his mocha latte, lol. That is, if a slot is even available.
I know this was stated before, but why do people think you need to charge to 100% every time. The Chargers work just like any other that ramps down the closer you are to full. You can get 80% in a matter of minutes, and not much more to get to 90%, but it will take an hour to get to 100%.

Its a lot like filling your car up. You can get it 90% full in 5 minutes, but if you are trying to fill the filler tube, you can be there another 20 minutes with the pump clicking on and off trying not to overflow down the side of the car.
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