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Old 08-27-2019, 06:00 PM   #1301
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dwf137 View Post


Really, no need to step all the way down to personal insults.

I have zero stake in this game. Just giving an outsiders perspective, because it seems to be a bit of a circle-jerk in here...
Just meant to make you think - but came off as an insult since, as you say, you have no stake / outsider's perspective. If you don't have the facts, then you shouldn't fall into either of the categories I outlined - although you did present a rather staunch opinion as if there were facts behind it.

I'm too close to it - my trade has ballooned since it has been so profitable, my neighbor has been an investor since it was private (now short with me), and I live right smack in the middle of a bunch of lottery-winning morons who think themselves geniuses (Etrons). So I often assume people are following it just as closely.
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Old 08-27-2019, 06:07 PM   #1302
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Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
Just meant to make you think - but came off as an insult since, as you say, you have no stake / outsider's perspective. If you don't have the facts, then you shouldn't fall into either of the categories I outlined - although you did present a rather staunch opinion as if there were facts behind it.

I'm too close to it - my trade has ballooned since it has been so profitable, my neighbor has been an investor since it was private (now short with me), and I live right smack in the middle of a bunch of lottery-winning morons who think themselves geniuses (Etrons). So I often assume people are following it just as closely.
No worries, I didn't take any offense...

Yeah... I viewed their stock as too volatile for me at the price when I was interested in investing. I don't have the time to follow the situation closely enough. My money is tied up mostly in other investments that I have more control over, not the market.
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Old 08-27-2019, 06:13 PM   #1303
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No way man. That guy could been retire 20 years ago. There is no other CEO as hard worker as Musk that knows their product technically in and out. He cares about all his project and I truly believe he thinks he is making a difference in the world even if other people thing he is not.
That may be the case. But that's not what he chose to do. He continued playing the same game. He threw a ton of his own money and sweat into Tesla to keep the stock up. Money he's going to get back. The brand's stock is his value and his wealth. How exactly do you think this game is going to end? Charity and clean air?
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Old 08-27-2019, 07:45 PM   #1304
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That may be the case. But that's not what he chose to do. He continued playing the same game. He threw a ton of his own money and sweat into Tesla to keep the stock up. Money he's going to get back. The brand's stock is his value and his wealth. How exactly do you think this game is going to end? Charity and clean air?
My understanding is that he threw all his money at Tesla to the last penny and he was living in a friends apartment in the beginning days of Tesla because that was all he could afford. He is probably going to die working
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:33 PM   #1305
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Originally Posted by dwf137 View Post
Right... Elon doesn't care about the stock performance, nor should he. Companies that listen to their shareholders turn into vanilla. Safer. Boring. That's not Tesla. At least not right now.

I hear what you're saying about him staying on as a "visionary and board member", but that's all he is right now anyway. He's a figure head. Guaranteed if he "stepped down" the companies stock would TANK. The stock is propped up with charisma.

With regards to buying into the "culture", yes, I was referring to Apple. I was also referring to Tesla because they have built a similar "cult" type of brand. All brands do it to some extent, but some have created a true cult. Apple created a cult. So has Tesla. So has Harley Davidson. So has Ikea.
Elon is more than just Visionary. There is almost 0 executive management team. He is CEO, CFO, COO, etc. A proper CEO would higher the appropriate people that can properly manage funds, forecast, supply chain, build costs, etc. The stock wouldnít tank if someone came in. The second largest shareholder next to Elon has started to suggest that he wants someone to come in as CEO and that it would help the company financially as well as stock price. Other institutional investors with large holdings have also suggested similar and those are the people who will determine where the stock goes.

The stock price is fundamentally the least important thing. Elon needs people in executive management positions to help strengthen his company. Adding those people wonít stagnate the technology or make it boring. If anything, operating costs would go down, margins could increase and increase free cash flow, all of which Tesla needs.


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The stock is down probably $100 bucks because of Elon but the rest is just stock manipulation.... It is short term. He is been quiet for a while. I think Tesla would be a few years behind if it were not for him; he pushes he people hard and get rids of people that cannot keep up.
Iím going to disagree here. Executive management have bailed for other companies, they werenít pushed out or fired. Elon has a documented history of being stubborn, not taking any advice, listening to those that want to help him build, etc. Itís the exact reason he was forced out of PayPal when his company merged with the other to create PayPal (Elon didnít create PayPal, FYI).

Look at solar city as a prime example. Prior board members, executive management and others advised against it. Elon be damned didnít listen and bailed them out and added his cousin to the board. That piece of the business is a giant financial suck in addition to the debt created to acquire it. If he would have listened, Iíd be willing to bet the company would be 3-4 years ahead and in a much different financial position.
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:40 PM   #1306
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Originally Posted by dwf137 View Post
No worries, I didn't take any offense...

Yeah... I viewed their stock as too volatile for me at the price when I was interested in investing. I don't have the time to follow the situation closely enough. My money is tied up mostly in other investments that I have more control over, not the market.
To get a feel for the charlatan in chief and the corporate culture, read the Vanity Fair article I linked a page or 2 ago...

But, for some cliff notes info, here's a rundown off the top of my head:

1. Liabilities - A. Debt, B. Legal Actions (employment-related, product quality issues, product liability issues including wrongful death, fraud claims ranging from securities to sales of non-existent products, Etron specific suits that could affect brand equity), C. Warranty Claims - very unorthodox and underfunded area in financials

2. Demand - Sales declines everywhere except the newest markets. The older the model, the lower the sales. Europe is essentially dead, especially with regard to profitable models, and the US is in decline. China sells 2K units/mo and needs to sell ~150K units/yr to get close to breakeven there.

3. Quality - Paint, suspension, fires/accidents an order of magnitude higher than ICE, leaks, design flaws, assembly flaws, resale values, etc. Claims and lawsuits piling up daily.

It needs to produce at least 5X of current in order to become profitable. Above, #1 affects their cost of capital and keeps suitors away, #3 keeps #2 down, and without significant changes (that would destroy their metrics), #3 can't be brought up to where #2 would be sufficient. It's a catch22. So, why not significant change? Because the stock price... Etron has already had one round of margin calls, and if it were to go down much more, he could lose everything - all of the companies are linked/pledged so that the entire house of cards is linked. So, the significant change required to fix it all is too risky/expensive to pursue.

Again, just the tip of the iceberg and a very incomplete quick summary off the top of my head. Could generate questions at least.
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Old 08-27-2019, 09:16 PM   #1307
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Sooo typical car industry stuff?
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Old 08-28-2019, 07:33 AM   #1308
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Keep in mind that old vehicles (whether it's a Tesla or the "Classic" / previous generation vehicles that GM or Chrysler have kept in production) are often high margin even if sales are lower. The tooling and R&D have been amortized. We don't have the figures available publicly, but I suspect the Model S especially is still making plenty of money for Tesla. It's an expensive car that's only had minor changes in 7 years.
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Old 08-28-2019, 08:23 AM   #1309
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Sooo typical car industry stuff?
Except that you know, Tesla is a young company who is struggling to achieve profitability and those items listed pose significant hurdles to achieving that.
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Old 08-28-2019, 08:40 AM   #1310
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^Much worse than the industry - financials are proof of that, rest shows why it's only getting worse. Also to add something they have recently figured out from the dirty car industry - channel stuffing - their subsidiaries have been buying the cars until they can be sold. They've been caught in EU, especially in Germany, where end-users have had trouble registering their cars, since they weren't technically new. You see it here in the US as well, going so far as to move new inventory at the auctions, which I pointed out near the end of Q1 when they were doing anything to dump units.

^They don't sell enough Model S / X or profitable variants of the Model3, again, obvious in the financials, as well as via new car registrations. It all comes down to the fact that the tech isn't quite there yet for EV's - and it's a niche sale until then.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:14 AM   #1311
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Originally Posted by Indocti Discant View Post
what are the bonds at? Those give you a very good indicator of if Ch. 11 is on it's way or not. Granted I'm now 10 years removed from the space, but I've got 20 Chap 11s with another 20 restructures on my resume - with over half in the auto space.

The cracks are there, but if things stay constant (aka no recession) Tesla is closer to being a stressed company vs. Ch. 11.
Shame on you for trying to raise the IQ of the room Spike down to ~81 on earnings, stabilize mid-80's, sitting around 88 now. Illiquid is an understatement. Prime wasn't happy bagholding my bond trades, but clearly forced restructure is not yet the issue.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:29 AM   #1312
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Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
To get a feel for the charlatan in chief and the corporate culture, read the Vanity Fair article I linked a page or 2 ago...

But, for some cliff notes info, here's a rundown off the top of my head:

1. Liabilities - A. Debt, B. Legal Actions (employment-related, product quality issues, product liability issues including wrongful death, fraud claims ranging from securities to sales of non-existent products, Etron specific suits that could affect brand equity), C. Warranty Claims - very unorthodox and underfunded area in financials

2. Demand - Sales declines everywhere except the newest markets. The older the model, the lower the sales. Europe is essentially dead, especially with regard to profitable models, and the US is in decline. China sells 2K units/mo and needs to sell ~150K units/yr to get close to breakeven there.

3. Quality - Paint, suspension, fires/accidents an order of magnitude higher than ICE, leaks, design flaws, assembly flaws, resale values, etc. Claims and lawsuits piling up daily.

It needs to produce at least 5X of current in order to become profitable. Above, #1 affects their cost of capital and keeps suitors away, #3 keeps #2 down, and without significant changes (that would destroy their metrics), #3 can't be brought up to where #2 would be sufficient. It's a catch22. So, why not significant change? Because the stock price... Etron has already had one round of margin calls, and if it were to go down much more, he could lose everything - all of the companies are linked/pledged so that the entire house of cards is linked. So, the significant change required to fix it all is too risky/expensive to pursue.

Again, just the tip of the iceberg and a very incomplete quick summary off the top of my head. Could generate questions at least.
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Originally Posted by Hondaslayer View Post
Sooo typical car industry stuff?
exactly! absolutely nothing new.

The Etron and I-pace didn't hurt model X sales whatsoever. Demand decline, where? and the quality issues are greatly exaggerated by the media. I think so far the people with paint issues are around 1000 (there is list) out of 450,000 cars sold. You don't hear much anymore about panel gap issues because they fixed that diligently. Car reviewers in UK are saying that the panels gaps match German competidors.

One thing that they really need to work is service and spare parts availability. But is hard to have spare parts when you cannot keep up with demand. They will get there.

If you have to look an automaker that is really in big trouble go look at Jaguar.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:48 AM   #1313
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Originally Posted by juanmedina View Post
exactly! absolutely nothing new.

The Etron and I-pace didn't hurt model X sales whatsoever. Demand decline, where? and the quality issues are greatly exaggerated by the media. I think so far the people with paint issues are around 1000 (there is list) out of 450,000 cars sold. You don't hear much anymore about panel gap issues because they fixed that diligently. Car reviewers in UK are saying that the panels gaps match German competidors.

One thing that they really need to work is service and spare parts availability. But is hard to have spare parts when you cannot keep up with demand. They will get there.

If you have to look an automaker that is really in big trouble go look at Jaguar.
1+1=9. If people here believe this drivel, I will actually waste my time to respond. BTW I'm retired... how is it that people with jobs afford to dick around on the intraweb all day?
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:56 AM   #1314
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Example...

Source:
https://eu-evs.com/

Q3 - Norway
Model S & X combined ~300 units
i-Pace ~300 units
e-Tron ~900 units
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:04 AM   #1315
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Example 2...

Source:
https://eu-evs.com/

Norway - Registrations of Model3 AWD and Performance versions (aka the profitable ones)
Q1 Day55: ~230
Q2 Day55: ~120
Q3 Day55: ~20
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:22 AM   #1316
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Originally Posted by juanmedina View Post
exactly! absolutely nothing new.

The Etron and I-pace didn't hurt model X sales whatsoever. Demand decline, where? and the quality issues are greatly exaggerated by the media. I think so far the people with paint issues are around 1000 (there is list) out of 450,000 cars sold. You don't hear much anymore about panel gap issues because they fixed that diligently. Car reviewers in UK are saying that the panels gaps match German competidors.

One thing that they really need to work is service and spare parts availability. But is hard to have spare parts when you cannot keep up with demand. They will get there.

If you have to look an automaker that is really in big trouble go look at Jaguar.
Model X demand decline:
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/23/ca...ations-plunge/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...ed-audi-jaguar
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...investors/amp/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bus...-report-2019-4

Quality issues due extend past just paint and panel gap. Hell, the German company that ordered a bunch complained to Tesla about quality issues on the vehicles they received. Yes, every manufacturer has quality issues with new vehicles, that will always happen. Iím not sure if itís reported on Tesla more because itís tesla or if the number of cars with quality concerns is greater when considering total vehicles sold.
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:36 AM   #1317
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Iím not sure if itís reported on Tesla more because itís tesla or if the number of cars with quality concerns is greater when considering total vehicles sold.
It's not only more per car produced, but the concerns are outlier concerns - they are way outside the norm for the industry. As well, when claims are honored, they are billed to goodwill instead of warranty, so their lack of reserves can be justified, and financials can be massaged. What happens as more and more cars are out there? Warranty budget is massively underfunded and the goodwil line item spikes... oh, it was a one-time occurrence, those issues have since been dealt with - we wanted to be the best company ever, so we fixed under "goodwill". It's disgusting, and it's coming around.
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Old 08-28-2019, 11:54 AM   #1318
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how is it that people with jobs afford to dick around on the intraweb all day?
Maybe promoting Tesla on the internet IS his job
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Old 08-28-2019, 12:05 PM   #1319
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Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
BTW I'm retired... how is it that people with jobs afford to dick around on the intraweb all day?
Before you retired did they not have office jobs where you sit around waiting to hear from some other guy you need to do his job before you can do yours?
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Old 08-28-2019, 12:10 PM   #1320
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I don't know why anybody is using Norway as some kind of bellwether of future automotive trends. No other country has basically mandated EV's via government policy while funding a welfare state through tax revenues on fossil fuels.

You can't compare it to say the UK or Germany or France, much less the US.
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Old 08-28-2019, 12:10 PM   #1321
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Maybe promoting Tesla on the internet IS his job
Sad state we're in. The internet is proof we weren't ready for it. In real life, pecking order is quickly defined and drives behavior. In theory, a world without the pecking order makes intelligence and ideas paramount - but alas, human nature... the internet (social media especially) has instead created a place where outlier people and ideas can exist in the mainstream. The crazy guy in town is now part of a group of like-minds, and he not only doesn't feel crazy anymore, but is instead emboldened by his "peers", reinforcing and eventually exacerbating the behavior. The world without social pressure and consequence, due to infinite segmentation. Tesla and the Teslan are simply the automotive perversions of the same.
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Old 08-28-2019, 12:23 PM   #1322
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Originally Posted by arghx7 View Post
I don't know why anybody is using Norway as some kind of bellwether of future automotive trends. No other country has basically mandated EV's via government policy while funding a welfare state through tax revenues on fossil fuels.

You can't compare it to say the UK or Germany or France, much less the US.
I used Norway expecting this exact response since it was Elon and Tesla itself that chose to use Norway as the shining example of what Europe would be (even better than the US! ). Now, of course, they've switched to China. Regardless, trends are the same in every country and the data is public. If that is in dispute, please waste 5 mins of your time and post any market where gross margin is increasing.
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Old 08-28-2019, 01:19 PM   #1323
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Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
Model X demand decline:
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/23/ca...ations-plunge/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...ed-audi-jaguar
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...investors/amp/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bus...-report-2019-4

Quality issues due extend past just paint and panel gap. Hell, the German company that ordered a bunch complained to Tesla about quality issues on the vehicles they received. Yes, every manufacturer has quality issues with new vehicles, that will always happen. Iím not sure if itís reported on Tesla more because itís tesla or if the number of cars with quality concerns is greater when considering total vehicles sold.
from last week:

Quote:
Tesla is running circles around rivals like Audi and Jaguar, and battery range is only one of the biggest reasons why
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...-e-tron-2019-8

I agree that Tesla is on par to German and Japanese automakers level of quality but their improving fast.


Quote:
Originally Posted by arghx7 View Post
I don't know why anybody is using Norway as some kind of bellwether of future automotive trends. No other country has basically mandated EV's via government policy while funding a welfare state through tax revenues on fossil fuels.

You can't compare it to say the UK or Germany or France, much less the US.
the UK already has more charging stations that gas stations.

China, Europe are mandating EV's left and right and it is inevitable.
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Old 08-28-2019, 01:39 PM   #1324
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Originally Posted by juanmedina View Post
from last week:



https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...-e-tron-2019-8

I agree that Tesla is on par to German and Japanese automakers level of quality but their improving fast.

https://youtu.be/90a_KXbqfeY?t=285



the UK already has more charging stations that gas stations.

China, Europe are mandating EV's left and right and it is inevitable.
Article is marketing fantasy for idiots. Can we compare Corolla sales to Model3 sales and declare a winnar?

Even ignoring the downward ASP's and financials shenanigans:

US June Model3 sales: 21,225
US July Model3 sales: 13,450
*source: Inside EV's

Anything other than platitudes for me to refute? I'll gladly take the quality claims on as well if you provide any facts/data.

Last edited by E. Nick; 08-28-2019 at 01:39 PM. Reason: Source
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:11 PM   #1325
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Originally Posted by E. Nick View Post
Article is marketing fantasy for idiots. Can we compare Corolla sales to Model3 sales and declare a winnar?

Even ignoring the downward ASP's and financials shenanigans:

US June Model3 sales: 21,225
US July Model3 sales: 13,450
*source: Inside EV's

Anything other than platitudes for me to refute? I'll gladly take the quality claims on as well if you provide any facts/data.
Quote:
Teslaís global automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)
2018: 245,240 (+142%)
Quote:
Compared to the first month of Q2, July's figures seem quite solid.
The month of July is now behind us, so here we present estimated Tesla U.S. sales figures. July is not an end-of-the-quarter month, so we don't expect earth-shattering sales results.

With the recent news of the $50,000 Tesla pickup truck, as well as selecting Fremont as the default location to produce the Model Y, there's a lot of work ahead for Tesla, but let's now turn our focus to the vehicles currently on sale.

Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In U.S.
Our estimates show that Tesla delivered some 13,450 Model 3s to U.S. buyers in July 2019. That's down from the 21,225 delivered in June (end of the quarter month) and about the same as the 13,950 Model 3 delivered to U.S. buyers in May 2019 and well above the 10,050 Model 3 delivered to U.S. buyers in April 2019.

The 13,450 is down a bit compared to the year-over-year figure from July 2018 (14,250 Model 3 estimated sales in the U.S.).


Moving on to the Tesla Model S and Model X

For July, we estimate the following for U.S. sales of these two Teslas:

Tesla Model S - 975
Tesla Model X - 1,225
These combined figures are quite a bit below average for a July month. For example, in July 2018, Tesla sold 1,200 Model S and 1,325 Model X. The July 2019 figures are well below June's numbers, but that was an end-of-quarter month.

Quarter over quarter growth

We should point out that if we're looking for a proper comparative set, then the first month of Q2 (April) is where we should put our focus. In April 2019, Tesla's estimated sales are as follows:
Model 3: 10,050
Model S: 825
Model X: 1,050
Comparing July 2019 to April 2019, all three Teslas see improved sales.
https://insideevs.com/news/362790/te...les-july-2019/
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