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Old 11-14-2017, 09:15 AM   #126
godfather2112
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Originally Posted by juanmedina View Post
Fuel savings....

Volvo, Daimler, Volkswagen are working on electric semi's I guess they forgot to do a business case analysis also
Daimler is all show, no go. Volvo is working on a natural gas hybrid and Volvo is all marketing. Thr tesla semi is stated to get between 200-300 miles per charge without trailer or payload. The second that thing starts carrying a loaded trailer, it will get half of that at best and cost truckers money.

Let me also ask you this, how will Tesla afford to build it? Unless they find more investors on a very large scale, they do not have the cash to build a new production facility or acquire material for build. Reports are also that the frames are freightliners and volvos, which will cost a significant amount to acquire.
It seems math escapes you at the moment.
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Old 11-14-2017, 10:54 AM   #127
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Daimler is all show, no go. Volvo is working on a natural gas hybrid and Volvo is all marketing. Thr tesla semi is stated to get between 200-300 miles per charge without trailer or payload. The second that thing starts carrying a loaded trailer, it will get half of that at best and cost truckers money.

It seems math escapes you at the moment.
Haha sure just like truckers driving 1500 miles straight and they usually drive in teams. Also not understanding that stop and go traffic has a higher impact on gas mileage and component wear than a constant highway speed is a big problem.

Cummins and BYD are also working on semi trucks, do you think multi-billion dollar corporation are just work on that projects for fun?

I agree with you that battery technology is not 100% there for all the the trucking routes but we are close.
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Old 11-14-2017, 11:11 AM   #128
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No trucker will drive 1500 miles straight. At most 550miles in 24 hours. Per current driving restrictions they cad drive a maximum of 3000 miles in the 8 days that puts them at 375 miles per day.

As as far as reliability electric motors should last longer and entire vehicle architecture is much simpler than a diesel semi that will also make it more reliable.
Your numbers have no basis in reality. I'm not sure what you background is in the industry, but I actually have my own operating authority and this is absolutely incorrect.
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Old 11-14-2017, 11:26 AM   #129
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Your numbers have no basis in reality. I'm not sure what you background is in the industry, but I actually have my own operating authority and this is absolutely incorrect.
My father in law has a trucking company

https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/regulation...ce-regulations
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Old 11-14-2017, 11:46 AM   #130
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My father in law has a trucking company

https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/regulation...ce-regulations
Right. Where does that limit you to "at most 550 miles in 24 hours?"
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Old 11-14-2017, 12:50 PM   #131
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Right. Where does that limit you to "at most 550 miles in 24 hours?"
it doesn't say 550 miles that's just an estimate. They are allowed to work 11 hours or 14 hours per day depending on their rest schedule but most work 11 hours continuously and limited to 60-70 hours in 7-8 consecutive days.

They are allow to drive 11 hours; at 55-70mph, + mandatory breaks, some top lights , they are lucky if they can even get 550 miles in real world conditions....
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Old 11-14-2017, 01:07 PM   #132
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Haha sure just like truckers driving 1500 miles straight and they usually drive in teams. Also not understanding that stop and go traffic has a higher impact on gas mileage and component wear than a constant highway speed is a big problem.

Cummins and BYD are also working on semi trucks, do you think multi-billion dollar corporation are just work on that projects for fun?

I agree with you that battery technology is not 100% there for all the the trucking routes but we are close.
Long haul truckers can get between 600-700 miles in 1 shift, if in a team its an easy 1200-1500 miles only requiring 1 fill up. Lets say for sake of your argument its a single truck driver.

Diesel Truck: 1 long distance driver goes 600 miles requiring only initial fill up and is able to do that drive in roughly 10 hours.

Electric Truck: 1 long distance drive is able to do 600 miles requiring at best 2 charges equaling 1 hour not factoring in if other trucks are currently charging and the time left for them. At best, the truck driver just sacrificed an hour on his trip, likely more resulting in opportunity cost loss. I'm also factoring in the charge range on the fact that this is without trailer and load. Factor those in and i'm willing to bet the range drops by 40% if not more requiring more down time to charge. You seem to be ignoring the fact that TSLA is stating 200-300 miles on a charge for just the truck without trailer and load.

Cummins, volvo and every other manufacturer have 4 things in common that Tesla does not have.

1: They are profitable. Tesla is far from profitable
2: They already have a fleet of daily consumer vehicles / engines out in addition to commercial vehicles out. Tesla has barely 3 vehicles with declining YoY sales on S and X, not to mention production issues with the 3.
3: The other autos already have production facilities, frames, cabs, etc that can easily be retrofitted to EV. Tesla has to design from scratch and build a production facility which it currently does NOT have the funding to do.
4: Semi repair facilities along every major interstate in the country in case of a break down with parts readily available. Tesla does not and thinking the vehicle will not have issue is foolish at best.


You're also completely ignoring the fact that a lot of semi's on the road have a tremendous amount of life left and the cost benefit of dumping them for EV is simply non existent and would be an a costly negative ROI. Additionally, lithium batteries lose charging capacity over time, the best review is them lasting 300k miles. It is stated that the semi battery is equivalent to 12 P100D batteries with an average cost of $120k to replace which doesn't factor in cost to replace electric motor should that go out. At $120k asp for a battery, you can do a complete diesel engine overhaul roughly 3-4 times.


Here is what I think you're not understanding. Most of us want Tesla to succeed but we are also realistic in the short coming and obstacles. You seem to ignore all of those because of love for the company and "vision."

The above are all facts with little to no opinion expressed in them. If you can't accept the factual obstacles, objections, ROI or lack there of, then this discussion will simply fall on deaf ears.
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Old 11-14-2017, 01:38 PM   #133
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WTF is going on here?

Tesla: give me money
Gov: why
Tesla: got ideas
Gov: what
Tesla: trucking
Gov: sell us
Tesla: dgkhgfdghrglerg
Gov: no
or
Gov: yes

If you believe Tesla is crony and corrupting politicians, then yes bad Tesla. TSLA is illegally benefitting from corruption. If no corruption exists, they have to plead with the check writers to get money like ANYBODY else. Checks indirectly paid for by tax dollars. That's how this system works. It doesn't matter if Americans are sold on battery cars or bombing brown people over there, the companies supplying the hardware will keep doing business as usual because they are legally obligated to under public trading laws.
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Old 11-14-2017, 01:46 PM   #134
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Long haul truckers can get between 600-700 miles in 1 shift, if in a team its an easy 1200-1500 miles only requiring 1 fill up. Lets say for sake of your argument its a single truck driver.

Diesel Truck: 1 long distance driver goes 600 miles requiring only initial fill up and is able to do that drive in roughly 10 hours.

Electric Truck: 1 long distance drive is able to do 600 miles requiring at best 2 charges equaling 1 hour not factoring in if other trucks are currently charging and the time left for them. At best, the truck driver just sacrificed an hour on his trip, likely more resulting in opportunity cost loss. I'm also factoring in the charge range on the fact that this is without trailer and load. Factor those in and i'm willing to bet the range drops by 40% if not more requiring more down time to charge. You seem to be ignoring the fact that TSLA is stating 200-300 miles on a charge for just the truck without trailer and load.

Cummins, volvo and every other manufacturer have 4 things in common that Tesla does not have.

1: They are profitable. Tesla is far from profitable
2: They already have a fleet of daily consumer vehicles / engines out in addition to commercial vehicles out. Tesla has barely 3 vehicles with declining YoY sales on S and X, not to mention production issues with the 3.
3: The other autos already have production facilities, frames, cabs, etc that can easily be retrofitted to EV. Tesla has to design from scratch and build a production facility which it currently does NOT have the funding to do.
4: Semi repair facilities along every major interstate in the country in case of a break down with parts readily available. Tesla does not and thinking the vehicle will not have issue is foolish at best.


You're also completely ignoring the fact that a lot of semi's on the road have a tremendous amount of life left and the cost benefit of dumping them for EV is simply non existent and would be an a costly negative ROI. Additionally, lithium batteries lose charging capacity over time, the best review is them lasting 300k miles. It is stated that the semi battery is equivalent to 12 P100D batteries with an average cost of $120k to replace which doesn't factor in cost to replace electric motor should that go out. At $120k asp for a battery, you can do a complete diesel engine overhaul roughly 3-4 times.


Here is what I think you're not understanding. Most of us want Tesla to succeed but we are also realistic in the short coming and obstacles. You seem to ignore all of those because of love for the company and "vision."

The above are all facts with little to no opinion expressed in them. If you can't accept the factual obstacles, objections, ROI or lack there of, then this discussion will simply fall on deaf ears.
Your whole argument is that an electric semi will not work and that's not accurate. It may not work on every scenario but it will work on most cases. Multi-Billion dollar automakers believe that there is business case for electric semi's and I tend to agree with them.

I see a lot of opinions on your post:

First where do you heard that Tesla is putting 1200KWh of batteries on their semi? The Proterra Electric bus with 660KWh was able to travel 1100 miles on single change under test condition with a weight 36,000 lbs. Under real works conditions its rated at 330 miles using the standard ADB Transit driving profile.

Tesla batteries have been tested on the lab showing that they have 80% capacity from new after 500,000 miles.

Cummins engines have a standard warranty of 2 years 250k miles. Some electric motors have 500k miles warranty and Tesla is shooting for 1 million miles for the model 3 motors which are the same motors found on the tesla semi.

Those are facts....

you keep forgetting the fuel savings...
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Old 11-14-2017, 02:35 PM   #135
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Your whole argument is that an electric semi will not work and that's not accurate. It may not work on every scenario but it will work on most cases. Multi-Billion dollar automakers believe that there is business case for electric semi's and I tend to agree with them.

I see a lot of opinions on your post:

First where do you heard that Tesla is putting 1200KWh of batteries on their semi? The Proterra Electric bus with 660KWh was able to travel 1100 miles on single change under test condition with a weight 36,000 lbs. Under real works conditions its rated at 330 miles using the standard ADB Transit driving profile.

Tesla batteries have been tested on the lab showing that they have 80% capacity from new after 500,000 miles.

Cummins engines have a standard warranty of 2 years 250k miles. Some electric motors have 500k miles warranty and Tesla is shooting for 1 million miles for the model 3 motors which are the same motors found on the tesla semi.

Those are facts....

you keep forgetting the fuel savings...
Um, no. My argument is not that EV semi wont work it's that Tesla Semi prototype, from whats been shared does not offer any financial benefit to long haul truckers and its an extreme cost with everything factored in. My additional argument is that Elon shouldn't be ****ing around with semi trucks and pissing money away on a prototype years from hitting the market with no proven results while his consumer based auto business is facing large hurdles that need to be addressed and invested in.

Regarding the battery, just one quick article from google search
https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-tru...ry-is-how-big/

Again, you're failing to understand Elons entire business is far from profitable and comparing them to profitable companies are Protera which is solely focused on a bus designed for in city driving which is vastly different than a semi going on long hauls.

Protera is focused solely on a bus and investors know they are investing entirely on that. If you're going to bring up Protera and their tech, you should probably also accept the fact that their longest range bus, the E2 series will take up to 4.5 hours to reach a full charge from nearing empty. The mileage of 251-350 is based off of curb weight (31,000 pounds) and no passengers. The max weight for a semi with trailer and load is 80,000 pounds. Lets say for sake of argument Elons semi with fully loaded trailer somehow saves weight and comes in at 65,000 pounds (hopeful wishing). You are now double the weight plus additional drag of that Protera bus and thus, expected energy consumption will increase.

I like how you completely ignored the 4 factual bullet points entirely. Sure, there is fuel savings which would be the large factor for trucks to go EV, that should seem like a no brainer argument. However you are expecting truckers to hand over their perfectly good rigs or rigs that might need some overhaul for a brand new un proven truck that will cost ****ing texa$, no ETA for delivery, and be a complete financial suck netting incredible loss to flip their existing trucks in favor of EV.

Again, no one is saying EV trucks wont work. Almost everyone is arguing that the money he is blowing on this would have been leaps and bounds more beneficial being invested into passenger vehicles, production and existing business instead of semi which provides no financial benefit to existing truckers and usable trucks.

Lets see, sell hundreds of thousands of cars a year with diversified lineup and effective manufacturing plant or piss money away on a semi that still needs a production plant (which they cant afford to build currently), no known eta, smaller customer target base, asinine cost to build, no current financial benefit for most long haul truckers.

That lab bench test for the batteries were also in temperature controlled environment and not running under real world load conditions. That bench top testing is great to show investors who know precisely dick about automotive world and real world conditions.
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Old 11-14-2017, 03:19 PM   #136
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Just want to say I have not said anything and this thread went down hill all the same...

Just say'n :P
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Old 11-14-2017, 05:16 PM   #137
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Just want to say I have not said anything and this thread went down hill all the same...

Just say'n :P
WRONG!

Itís gone downhill now that youíve posted. You should feel bad!

You hate EV. I happen to like EV but happen to think Elon is pissing money away like an uneducated idiot who inherited a trust fund.


I did get the opportunity to drive a Chevy bolt and that damn thing is rather fun and I honestly wouldnít mind owning one. 🤷*♂️
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Old 11-17-2017, 12:36 AM   #138
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500 miles range

400 miles charge in 30 minutes lol
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Old 11-17-2017, 01:17 AM   #139
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500 miles range

400 miles charge in 30 minutes lol

https://electrek.co/2017/11/16/tesla-semi-live-blog/


Tesla Roadster 2

All numbers are for the base modelÖ
Roadster 2 does 0-60 in 1.9 seconds
Fastest production car ever
Quarter mile in 8.9 seconds
620 mile range
0 to 100 in 4.2 seconds
200KWH battery pack
ďThe point of doing this is to give a hardcore smackdown to internal combustion cars.Ē Ė Elon
Top speed over 250 miles
Four seats
Available in 2020


Oh, and a really big Pickup truck.
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Old 11-17-2017, 01:23 AM   #140
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And you guys believe this

Lololol
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Old 11-17-2017, 01:25 AM   #141
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WRONG!

Itís gone downhill now that youíve posted. You should feel bad!

You hate EV. I happen to like EV but happen to think Elon is pissing money away like an uneducated idiot who inherited a trust fund.


I did get the opportunity to drive a Chevy bolt and that damn thing is rather fun and I honestly wouldnít mind owning one. 🤷*♂️
No I donít hate an EV ANYNMORE then I hate an oven or dishwasher
Or any other disposable piece of tech

I typically hate the holier than thou self righteous pricks that buy them and demand we all thank them for it
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Old 11-17-2017, 09:38 AM   #142
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So Elon going to build all these where exactly?

Oh right, the factory where the employee parking lot looks like a Manhattan parking garage.

Oh and Scrappydo. Everyone i talk to doesnít feel like they saved the world. All they care about is you know the price they paid for saving the world.. driving their car that runs on electricity thatís made from burning coal. I rebuke by saying I saved the whales more than you did this week.. I work from home and ride my bicycle to lunch. I even pull a BOB trailer to the grocery store. I end it by telling them Iím more smug than you
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Old 11-17-2017, 12:43 PM   #143
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No I donít hate an EV ANYNMORE then I hate an oven or dishwasher
Or any other disposable piece of tech

I typically hate the holier than thou self righteous pricks that buy them and demand we all thank them for it
And who the F would that be exactly? I mean where do you come up with this sheet? a close friend runs a clearbra/wrap/tint/ceramic coat/wheel shop here. Best in this part of the state and maybe the whole state. He just had an open house 3 weeks ago. A number of Model S's there. I didn't talk to a single owner who was a self righteous prick about their car.

I honestly think you need EV therapy from a solid therapist down there in Houston. That or maybe lighten up Francis. For f-sakes.
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Old 11-17-2017, 05:20 PM   #144
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So Elon going to build all these where exactly?

Oh right, the factory where the employee parking lot looks like a Manhattan parking garage.

Oh and Scrappydo. Everyone i talk to doesnít feel like they saved the world. All they care about is you know the price they paid for saving the world.. driving their car that runs on electricity thatís made from burning coal. I rebuke by saying I saved the whales more than you did this week.. I work from home and ride my bicycle to lunch. I even pull a BOB trailer to the grocery store. I end it by telling them Iím more smug than you
You are my new friend for the year
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Old 11-18-2017, 10:13 AM   #145
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So Elon going to build all these where exactly?

Oh right, the factory where the employee parking lot looks like a Manhattan parking garage.

Oh and Scrappydo. Everyone i talk to doesnít feel like they saved the world. All they care about is you know the price they paid for saving the world.. driving their car that runs on electricity thatís made from burning coal. I rebuke by saying I saved the whales more than you did this week.. I work from home and ride my bicycle to lunch. I even pull a BOB trailer to the grocery store. I end it by telling them Iím more smug than you
They have 2-3 years to figure that out.

Wal-Mart is buying some Tesla semi's
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Old 11-18-2017, 11:29 AM   #146
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They have 2-3 years to figure that out.

Wal-Mart is buying some Tesla semi's
Plenty of time to install charging stations, build more power plants doing the clean energy thing and figure out how auto pilot up to loading docks. I think this will work but not in 2-3 years. Then again CMI took a hit just on the unveiling so..

Meh.. Iím not sure whatís with their decision making lately. Walmartís also competing with Amazon by raising prices online to lure shoppers into their brick and mortar.
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Old 11-18-2017, 11:49 AM   #147
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Plenty of time to install charging stations, build more power plants doing the clean energy thing and figure out how auto pilot up to loading docks. I think this will work but not in 2-3 years. Then again CMI took a hit just on the unveiling so..

Meh.. Iím not sure whatís with their decision making lately. Walmartís also competing with Amazon by raising prices online to lure shoppers into their brick and mortar.
I want to know how Elon plans to build the manufacturing facility without having enough funding to currently do so. Heís either going to need a big buy in from several investors or release more shares and dilute the stock.

2-3 years is a damn short period of time to deliver on these trucks.
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Old 11-19-2017, 09:49 AM   #148
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I want to know how Elon plans to build the manufacturing facility without having enough funding to currently do so. Heís either going to need a big buy in from several investors or release more shares and dilute the stock.

2-3 years is a damn short period of time to deliver on these trucks.
I covered that up thread. No problem. The factory where all the employees double park

Itís Elon Musk! The Roadster will be rolling down production lines too by then. All outta one factory. Cause otherwise wonít building that facility take up at least 2 of those years? What about the time to troubleshoot equipment on brand new one of a kind production lines?
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Old 11-19-2017, 10:09 AM   #149
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I covered that up thread. No problem. The factory where all the employees double park

Itís Elon Musk! The Roadster will be rolling down production lines too by then. All outta one factory. Cause otherwise wonít building that facility take up at least 2 of those years? What about the time to troubleshoot equipment on brand new one of a kind production lines?
Thatís 2 years if almost solely focusing on those new facilities. This is going to go down in 1 of 3ways and for the record, Iím hoping Elon makes it but am very doubtful.

1: Gets insane amounts of funding through private investors to fund new projects
2: issues more shares and dilutes the stock
3: doesnít get funding and is up **** creek.


I donít think Elon will get funding until q4 results are in. If production issue are still happening, reports of model 3 issues or an even larger loss per share, itís going to be hard to sway new investors.
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Old 11-19-2017, 02:04 PM   #150
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Ive searched and can’t find it, but is the mileage per charge based on benchtop testing or did they drive it with full load? If driven with a full load, did they test on flat road or did they also test on roads with inclines? I’m interested to see if the charge depleted at a significant rate when under heavy load / incline or stays constant.

If Elon can deliver on what he says and depending on initial acquisition cost and true savings, it will definitely be a game changer. Personally I think Elon should have partnered with amazon to deliver a fleet of EV delivery vehicles. The partnership name alone would have sent that stock sky rocketing.
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