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Old 01-10-2008, 03:56 PM   #1
plunk10
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Default Fed to the rescue. continuing to cut interest rates

What are they trying to do to the American dollar? Make it half the value of canadian?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/10/news...ion=2008011014

Quote:
The Fed to the rescue
Bernanke says central bank ready to take 'substantive additional action' to cut interest rates in order to support lagging economy.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Thursday that the central bank is prepared to continue lowering interest rates in order to help keep the economy on track.

He also reiterated that the Fed does not believe the economy will slip into a recession this year.

"We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks," Bernanke said in prepared remarks before the Women in Housing and Finance and Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

Stocks, which had been trading lower before the speech, rebounded later in the afternoon on another topsy-turvy day.

Wall Street interpreted Bernanke's comments to mean that there is now an increased likelihood the Fed will lower its key federal funds rate by a half percentage point, to 3.75 percent, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Jan. 30.

"Bernanke's hinting that a half-point cut is certainly on the table and it's about time. I understood the Fed's caution in October but since then, economic signs have been deteriorating. The Fed has a lot of work to do," said James Glassman, senior economist with JPMorgan Chase.

Read Bernanke's prepared remarks
To that end, investors are pricing in a 90 percent chance that the Fed will lower rates by a half-point on Jan. 30, according to federal funds futures listed on the Chicago Board of Trade.

"The Fed has changed course. It has moved from a limited loosening mode designed to mitigate the impact on the financial markets to more aggressive loosening aimed at stimulating growth," said Chris Probyn, chief economist with State Street Global Advisors in Boston.

Probyn said he expects a half-point cut later this month followed by a quarter-point cut at its next meeting in March and did not rule out further cuts at meetings in April and June as well.

But Bernanke's speech comes as more and more economists are saying that the economy is either already in a recession or on its way toward entering one. Bernanke stopped short of describing current conditions as a recession in his prepared remarks but he did paint a bleak picture for the economy in 2008.

"Downside risks to growth have become more pronounced. Notably, the demand for housing seems to have weakened further, in part reflecting the ongoing problems in mortgage markets," Bernanke said.

"In addition, a number of factors, including higher oil prices, lower equity prices, and softening home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending as we move into 2008," he added.

Recession may already be here
During a question-and-answer session, Bernanke said the Fed is not currently forecasting a recession in 2008. Instead, he said the Fed expects growth to slow.

He added though, that it is difficult to make a determination about whether an economy is in recession until after the fact.

Probyn agreed. And he said that if the economy is already in a recession or close to one, a rate cut later this month would be too little too late. The best the Fed can do now is to take steps to ensure that the recession does not last long.

"If we do have a recession, it would be quite mild and probably in the first half of the year. Nothing the Fed does today can do anything about that," Probyn said. "But rate cuts may stimulate growth by late summer and into the end of the year."

Glassman, however, said that the Fed may have waited far too long to cut rates aggressively and that even if the economy doesn't dip into a recession, there could be a prolonged slump since the job market has weakened in a relatively short period of time.

"When you have to step up the pace of easing and you're doing it after unemployment has been rising, you're not exactly ahead of the curve," he said.

In case of emergency, slash rates
Bernanke discussed inflation as well, but he said that "inflation expectations appear to have remained reasonably well anchored," and suggested that rising oil and food prices "may be a negative influence on growth" in addition to putting pressure on inflation measures.

That comment appears to give more evidence to those who think the Fed is now more concerned about a recession than rampant inflation.

As such, some market strategists and economists have even suggested in the past few days that the Fed could cut rates in an unscheduled meeting before January 30.

Bernanke did not comment in his remarks about whether a rate cut before Jan. 30 was possible. But he did say that the Fed "must remain exceptionally alert and flexible, prepared to act in a decisive and timely manner and, in particular, to counter any adverse dynamics that might threaten economic or financial stability."

Bernanke also said the central bank's new auction program, which it announced in December as a way to loan money to banks in need of cash at a rate below the Fed's discount rate, appears to be a success and could "become a useful permanent addition to the Fed's toolbox."

The Fed has already conducted two auctions for a combined $40 billion and will be loaning $60 billion more later this month through two additional auctions.
I guess this will help the idiots that signed up for an adjustable rate mortgage, as their rates will now go back down to where they signed.

I still don't get it. Its like Wall Street asks the government to lower rates, and they do. That seems to pump stocks for a couple days, then they fall again soon after.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:01 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CNN
He also reiterated that the Fed does not believe the economy will slip into a recession this year.
It's going to be close. I really think be the spring we'll either sink or swim. Gash prices are rumored to be pushing 4bux/gal, in large part due to the blend changeover.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:01 PM   #3
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I don't know a whole lot about this stuff. But it seems to me that, if big banking institutions like Merril-Lynch start saying "Hmmm...these numbers...looks like maybe we're going to go into a recession? maybe..." The market gets nervous.

They start saying "Yeah, it looks like there is pretty much a recession coming. Dunno when," the market gets really nervous.

And if they say, like I read in CNN today, "Okay, we might actually BE in a recession NOW. The only possible way we can avert disaster is if the Fed cuts the rates!" Then the Fed realizes it had better cut rates to stop those guys from talking.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:02 PM   #4
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I guess this will help the idiots that signed up for an adjustable rate mortgage, as their rates will now go back down to where they signed.
How do you figure?
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:04 PM   #5
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It's going to be close. I really think be the spring we'll either sink or swim. Gash prices are rumored to be pushing 4bux/gal, in large part due to the blend changeover.
doesn't the lowering of rates decrease the value of the dollar, making oil cost more in american dollars, thus raising gas prices?

essentially, cutting rates seems to just devalue the constant paycheck even further. Doesn't that make things worse for joe consumer?
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:04 PM   #6
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Does this mean it would be a good time for me to look at a house for myself?

With home sales lagging, asking prices getting lower, and interest rates coming down, is it a good idea long term?

Dont worry, i have no intention of getting myself into an adjustable rate nightmare.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:05 PM   #7
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Lets keep doing the same thing over and over. Its been working so well so far...
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:07 PM   #8
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How do you figure?
say in 2003, they signed up for an ARM at 4%. In 2005 the rate increases to 5%, 2006 increases to 6% 2007 7%. Oh wait, now the fed is dropping rates. Now it falls back to 6% (or lower, I'm not sure exactly how the ARMS work).

The way I understand it, this is kind of working to bail out those that signed up for those adjustable rates.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:07 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by plunk10 View Post
doesn't the lowering of rates decrease the value of the dollar, making oil cost more in american dollars, thus raising gas prices?
Yes, that will factor in as well but the $4/gal. rumor was around before the latest rate cut announcement.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:08 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by FiveDoorSVT View Post
Does this mean it would be a good time for me to look at a house for myself?

With home sales lagging, asking prices getting lower, and interest rates coming down, is it a good idea long term?
depends. Last time the rates fell and the housing boom began. There are probably many others out there like you that are waiting for the right time to buy. Once rates hit rock bottom again, we'll have a housing boom all over again. More buyers will be on the market, and prices will start to rise again, due to affordability from low rates.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:09 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by plunk10 View Post
doesn't the lowering of rates decrease the value of the dollar, making oil cost more in american dollars, thus raising gas prices?
Not exactly. Cutting interest rates just makes it more desirable for companies that make transactions in dollars to borrow money for their operations/growth. The reason the value of the dollar often falls in sync with rate decreases is that foreign investors holding dollars don't get the same return that they would if rates were higher, so they sell their dollars and buy other currency. The selling off of dollars held in foreign reserve is what lowers the value of the dollar.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:13 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Asinine View Post
Not exactly. Cutting interest rates just makes it more desirable for companies that make transactions in dollars to borrow money for their operations/growth. The reason the value of the dollar often falls in sync with rate decreases is that foreign investors holding dollars don't get the same return that they would if rates were higher, so they sell their dollars and buy other currency. The selling off of dollars held in foreign reserve is what lowers the value of the dollar.
That and the fed rate and current mortgage rates are not directly linked. It takes time before the fed rate will affect the mortgage or other consumer product rates. This is not a mortgage bailout.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:16 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FiveDoorSVT View Post
Does this mean it would be a good time for me to look at a house for myself?

With home sales lagging, asking prices getting lower, and interest rates coming down, is it a good idea long term?

Dont worry, i have no intention of getting myself into an adjustable rate nightmare.
Quote:
Originally Posted by plunk10 View Post
depends. Last time the rates fell and the housing boom began. There are probably many others out there like you that are waiting for the right time to buy. Once rates hit rock bottom again, we'll have a housing boom all over again. More buyers will be on the market, and prices will start to rise again, due to affordability from low rates.

Agreed.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:20 PM   #14
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we'll be trading 1:1 with the peso soon.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:23 PM   #15
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I've said before and will restate here.....

The gloom and doom will continue until the election in November.

The uncertainty of an election always plays hell with the markets. I bet early 2009 sees an upswing.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:29 PM   #16
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A nice read.

Fed Rate/Mortgage Rate relationship

Quote:
Since the most recent reduction in the prime lending rate, we've seen 30 year fixed interest rates wobble just a bit, but no signficant decreases. What's up with that?

The link between anything the Fed does and your 30 year mortgage rate exists, but the relationship is not what you might think. Your 30 year fixed rate mortgage is based on the 10 year Federal Treasury note, basically IOUs that Uncle Sam sells to us and the rest of the world to finance the government and pay off our massive trade defecits with countries like China.

But when short term rates like the Federal Reserve prime rate drop, long term bond rates tend to increase. Investors worry about inflation getting out of hand when the fed rate is lowered. Investors stop buying the long term 10 year treasury note, until the government raises the rates on this instrument to be more attractive in a free market for long term investments. Does this make any sense? Read the rest of this post if you're interested in the details or just comment on your personal experiences right here.

CNs: Bolded above, and there is a ton more in this link, posted as an editorial at the bottom.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:30 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by plunk10 View Post
say in 2003, they signed up for an ARM at 4%. In 2005 the rate increases to 5%, 2006 increases to 6% 2007 7%. Oh wait, now the fed is dropping rates. Now it falls back to 6% (or lower, I'm not sure exactly how the ARMS work).

The way I understand it, this is kind of working to bail out those that signed up for those adjustable rates.
Not necessarily.

It all depends on the what index is being used (APR = index + spread). A lot of the more recent mortages use the London Interbank Overnight Rate (LIBOR) as the index. LIBOR has been going up, up, up - Europe has it's own liquidity problems - if banks are unwilling to lend each other money, then the interbank rate will rise, and so will the APRs on mortages tied to LIBOR.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:30 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by f4phantomii View Post
I've said before and will restate here.....

The gloom and doom will continue until the election in November.

The uncertainty of an election always plays hell with the markets. I bet early 2009 sees an upswing.
I agree with what you are saying and would like to subscribe to your news letter.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:36 PM   #19
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Not necessarily.

It all depends on the what index is being used (APR = index + spread). A lot of the more recent mortages use the London Interbank Overnight Rate (LIBOR) as the index. LIBOR has been going up, up, up - Europe has it's own liquidity problems - if banks are unwilling to lend each other money, then the interbank rate will rise, and so will the APRs on mortages tied to LIBOR.
Also depends on the wildly varying terms that you see in these loans. Some ARMs ride the rates but have upper and/or lower caps. Some just ride the rates. Some reset to a rate independent of the reserve rates. Etc etc etc.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:47 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plunk10 View Post
say in 2003, they signed up for an ARM at 4%. In 2005 the rate increases to 5%, 2006 increases to 6% 2007 7%. Oh wait, now the fed is dropping rates. Now it falls back to 6% (or lower, I'm not sure exactly how the ARMS work).

The way I understand it, this is kind of working to bail out those that signed up for those adjustable rates.
You understand incorrectly. When the Fed speaks of cutting rates, it is referring to the funds rate, or the rate that banks pay at the Fed discount window or each other when they borrow money for VERY short terms, like overnight.
There is an almost direct relationship between the funds rate and the Prime rate, but the only adjustable mortgages indexed to the Prime rate are home equity lines (HELOCs).
Your traditional 1st mortgage ARMs are tied to longer term indexes, like the LIBOR or government bonds, and bonds reacted negatively to the Fed's announcement today because lower short-term rates mean increased money supply which increases the risk of inflation. Long bonds don't return much to begin with, being considered very secure investments, and any increase in inflation erodes into their yields.
Long story short: mortgage rates worsened today because of the Fed. I'm not even going to get into how ARMs are more complicated than this even, with margins, initial discount rates, and adjustment caps, etc. that pretty much guarantee that they will never go below their initial rates and usually just go up, up, up regardless of what the market does.

Fixed rate mortgages are not linked to either the Fed rates or bonds (unlike what the article from another poster said), but to mortgage-backed securities. However, MBS' compete against the yield on the 10 year bond for investors, and so they trend closely enough that watching the 10 year bond is a very good indicator for the direction that fixed mortgage rates are headed.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:49 PM   #21
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What are they trying to do to the American dollar?
They are devaluing on purpose to make way for the amero.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:52 PM   #22
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hey, I don't mind. I'm closing on a house in the next month or so...so this could very well save me thousands.

but yeah, changing interest rates to affect the economy is like moving a table via a rope thats tied to it...it works great if you're pulling (raising interest rates will slow things down) but not so well if you're pushing on the rope, which is what they're doing.
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Old 01-10-2008, 05:01 PM   #23
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Also depends on the wildly varying terms that you see in these loans. Some ARMs ride the rates but have upper and/or lower caps. Some just ride the rates. Some reset to a rate independent of the reserve rates. Etc etc etc.
All ARMs have 3 things in common: an index, a margin, and floor/ceiling/adjustment caps.

The index is the market indicator that all rate calculations are based on. Bond yield, LIBOR, Prime rate, whatever.
While most mortgage shoppers concentrate the initial rate, the margin is the most important number, as the actual loan rate is calculated by adding the margin to the index.
Except according to the rate caps, which will say that the rate cannot ever be lower than a particular amount (floor), higher ever than another amount (ceiling), will adjust a certain amount the first time (the so-called "reset" after 2, 3, 5, or 7 years), and then each periodic adjustment (usually every 6 months to a year) can only be by a certain amount (usually up or down).
Most ARMs are written in such a fashion that they will go up 2-3% on their initial adjustment, regardless of the market. That's why fixed rates are higher.
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Old 01-10-2008, 05:03 PM   #24
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hey, I don't mind. I'm closing on a house in the next month or so...so this could very well save me thousands.

but yeah, changing interest rates to affect the economy is like moving a table via a rope thats tied to it...it works great if you're pulling (raising interest rates will slow things down) but not so well if you're pushing on the rope, which is what they're doing.
Did you get your mortgage rate locked in yet? Because the news today should push those fixed rate %s higher in the coming month.
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Old 01-10-2008, 06:56 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by rexpdx View Post
You understand incorrectly. When the Fed speaks of cutting rates, it is referring to the funds rate, or the rate that banks pay at the Fed discount window or each other when they borrow money for VERY short terms, like overnight.
There is an almost direct relationship between the funds rate and the Prime rate, but the only adjustable mortgages indexed to the Prime rate are home equity lines (HELOCs).
Your traditional 1st mortgage ARMs are tied to longer term indexes, like the LIBOR or government bonds, and bonds reacted negatively to the Fed's announcement today because lower short-term rates mean increased money supply which increases the risk of inflation. Long bonds don't return much to begin with, being considered very secure investments, and any increase in inflation erodes into their yields.
Long story short: mortgage rates worsened today because of the Fed. I'm not even going to get into how ARMs are more complicated than this even, with margins, initial discount rates, and adjustment caps, etc. that pretty much guarantee that they will never go below their initial rates and usually just go up, up, up regardless of what the market does.

Fixed rate mortgages are not linked to either the Fed rates or bonds (unlike what the article from another poster said), but to mortgage-backed securities. However, MBS' compete against the yield on the 10 year bond for investors, and so they trend closely enough that watching the 10 year bond is a very good indicator for the direction that fixed mortgage rates are headed.
thanks for the detailed explanation
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They are devaluing on purpose to make way for the amero.
I agree with that
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