Toyota says California-led EV mandates are 'impossible' as states fall short of goal

[AVANTI R5]

Toyota Motor said Friday that California-led electric vehicle mandates starting next year are "impossible" to meet.

The regulations call for 35% of 2026 model-year vehicles, which will begin to be introduced next year, to be zero-emission vehicles.

J.D. Power reports no states are in accordance with the EV mandate as of this year.

Only California, Colorado and Washington have seen at least 20% of retail sales being EV or PHEVs this year.

DETROIT — Toyota Motor sounded the alarm Friday that California-led electric vehicle mandates that are set to start next year are "impossible" to meet and, if they're not changed, will lead to less customer choice in several states.

Current requirements under the California Air Resources Board's "Advanced Clean Cars II" regulations call for 35% of 2026 model-year vehicles, which will begin to be introduced next year, to be zero-emission vehicles, or ZEV. Battery-electric, fuel cell and, to an extent, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles qualify as zero emission under the regulations.

"I have not seen a forecast by anyone … government or private, anywhere that has told us that that number is achievable. At this point, it looks impossible," Jack Hollis, chief operating officer of Toyota Motor North America, said during a virtual media roundtable Friday. "Demand isn't there. It's going to limit a customer's choice of the vehicles they want."

The California Air Resources Board reports 12 states and Washington, D.C., have adopted the rules. Roughly half of them did so starting with the 2027 model year. The EV mandates are part of CARB's Advanced Clean Cars regulations that require 100% of new vehicle sales in the state of California to be zero-emission models by 2035.

How Toyota took on America's trucks

J.D. Power said no states are in accordance with the EV mandate as of this year. Only California (27%), Colorado (22%) and Washington (20%) have seen at least 20% of retail sales being EVs or PHEVs this year. Other states such as New York (12%), New Mexico (5%) and Rhode Island (9%) are far from compliant.
The national average of EV/PHEV adoption for retail sales is only 9% through October, J.D. Power said Friday.

Hollis said if the mandates are unchanged, it will lead to "unnatural acts" in the automotive industry that have already begun at some automakers, where companies are supplying states which have agreed to the rules with a disproportionate amount of electrified models.

"It's going to distort the industry. It's going to distort the business. Why? Because it's unnatural to what the current demand in the marketplace is," Hollis, a longtime automotive executive, said.

Several automotive insiders previously told CNBC that the EV mandate issue needed to be addressed regardless of who won election this year.
The California Air Resources Board did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In President-elect Donald Trump's first term in office, a legal battle ensued to revoke states' ability to set their own emissions standards. Several officials expect Trump to renew that push once he's back in the White House.
Hollis said that he "hopes it doesn't come to that" this time around, and that the states, federal government and auto industry can come to a resolution. He also said Toyota would prefer one national standard — a sentiment many automakers previously shared.

"We would always want a 50-state rule, because that way we can treat all customers, all dealers, equally, fairly, whatever that might be," Hollis said. "Our hope would be is that California and [the Environmental Protection Agency] would match up, and it would be reduced down to something that is achievable. Even if it's a push, even if it's a reach, but at this point, it's an impossible stage."

*****

* Registered users of the site do not see these ads.

[Russ_G93]

"Drill Baby Drill" - President Elect Trump

Meanwhile, China is building 100 New Coal Power plants.

[Stanley]

I tend to agree that California's EV mandates are untenable. Not just from an automotive supply side, but also from the cost of electricity. My car gets about 4 miles/kWh. Using my local electricity and gas rates, that is equivalent to a car getting ~25mpg. This ignores oil changes and other maintenance. Call it 30 mpg, which is generous, if you include all that additional maintenance. From a purely economic standpoint one is much better off economically buying a Camry. I also see electricity rates outpacing inflation for the foreseeable future as rate payers are subsidizing the T&D for data centers, and the existing infrastructure is being managed to failure.

Originally Posted by Russ_G93

"Drill Baby Drill" - President Elect Trump

Meanwhile, China is building 100 New Coal Power plants.

You may (or may not) wish to consider the validity of your news sources when making vaguely racist comments meant to absolve you of personal responsibility.

China is building coal, but it is drastically tapering off. They have more installed solar than any other nation on earth.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/china-wind-solar-coal
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...r-in-may-2024/
You may also (or not) want to look up all the EPA permitting waivers approved by the Obama administration which allow for fracking and are the main reason we have such cheap oil and natural gas right now.


One final data point, US citizens use ~285mmBTU's a year whereas Chinese people use ~122mmBTU's a year. But please, by all means, continue to kick down on the Chinese for problems in which the United States bears much more blame. It's so much easier to pass the buck than take any action.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...r-in-may-2024/

[samagon]

Originally Posted by Stanley

I tend to agree that California's EV mandates are untenable. Not just from an automotive supply side, but also from the cost of electricity. My car gets about 4 miles/kWh. Using my local electricity and gas rates, that is equivalent to a car getting ~25mpg. This ignores oil changes and other maintenance. Call it 30 mpg, which is generous, if you include all that additional maintenance. From a purely economic standpoint one is much better off economically buying a Camry. I also see electricity rates outpacing inflation for the foreseeable future as rate payers are subsidizing the T&D for data centers, and the existing infrastructure is being managed to failure.






You may (or may not) wish to consider the validity of your news sources when making vaguely racist comments meant to absolve you of personal responsibility.

the policy of a country cannot be rationalized to an entire race (in this case Asian), which are made up of, yes, people from China, but numerous other countries as well.

the fact is, China is building 100 new coal plants. you can't make that go away by calling anyone that notices racist, or whatever it was said.

maybe though, we can ignore this line of discussion and talk specifically about the greenwashing that countries, states and municipalities did a few years ago to gain favor with certain constituents.

there was no way any of these policies were going to end with the results they promised.

California will back down their greenwashed legislations and blame the evil companies for not meeting the completely unrealistic targets that were never based on any achievable metrics.

[JustyWRC]

Originally Posted by samagon

the policy of a country cannot be rationalized to an entire race (in this case Asian), which are made up of, yes, people from China, but numerous other countries as well.

the fact is, China is building 100 new coal plants. you can't make that go away by calling anyone that notices racist, or whatever it was said.

maybe though, we can ignore this line of discussion and talk specifically about the greenwashing that countries, states and municipalities did a few years ago to gain favor with certain constituents.

there was no way any of these policies were going to end with the results they promised.

California will back down their greenwashed legislations and blame the evil companies for not meeting the completely unrealistic targets that were never based on any achievable metrics.

Has California fixed their power grid from having to brown out soo much? I know a lot of that was due to some fires; but, that happens every year. They wantmandate that a certain % of cars must be EV; but, can they even charge them? Or will they just sit cause the owner is in a browned out area and can't charge them? Of all the places to be as "demanding".

[Kostamojen]

Originally Posted by JustyWRC

Has California fixed their power grid from having to brown out soo much? I know a lot of that was due to some fires; but, that happens every year. They wantmandate that a certain % of cars must be EV; but, can they even charge them? Or will they just sit cause the owner is in a browned out area and can't charge them? Of all the places to be as "demanding".

The brown outs are to stop power lines from starting fires not due to too much power consumption. Its PG&E trying not to get sued again.

[JustyWRC]

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

The brown outs are to stop power lines from starting fires not due to too much power consumption. Its PG&E trying not to get sued again.

I see. Definitely didn't look into it too much and thought I read that it was working overtime due to the heat.

THOUGH, since they can't seem to mitigate fire hazards there and have fires every year, would they not keep browning out for the same reasons? STILL hindering their grid and not keep up with power requirements? Cause they may be able to handle it now; but, with more and more and more coming based on their mandate, are they installing enough infrastructure?

[Russ_G93]

You could put 50% of the US in a Hybrid/EV, and that would still Not offset any of the New Air Pollution Produced by the East (Edit: Now Close to 300 New Coal Plants).

https://globalenergymonitor.org/pres...missions-peak/

CCP is Not interested in Carbon Neutrality, nor have they ever been.. because otherwise.. you wouldn't see "300" New plants on the horizon.
https://insights.taylorenglish.com/p...-alarming-rate

I dare say it is a Poor Endeavor in the first place, Post Covid Lockdowns with high inflation -which essentially damaged the Global Economy. CA can't even secure its own Power-grid with all of the fires that keep popping up each summer. And then the Radio goes "Flex Your Power, Save Energy, Such n Such times are Peak Hours and you will be Charged more for running your washing machine." Well if you can't Guarantee my power, just like you can't guarantee stable fuel prices, then what are we doing here... How about a Infrastructure Power Grid Push, before they start telling you which cars/trucks can be sold/bought. I like Tesla's. They're nice cars for what you get, but like the Gentleman above stated.. It makes more sense to buy a Camry (Practicality Wise). And Toyota knows this.

If people are having a hard time at the Pump, Paying for Groceries, Paying for Insurance, Paying their Mortgage, Paying for Medical Bills... You can't just sit there and say "Hey we know you are having a hard time financially, So what you should do is Get a loan from the Bank and Buy this New EV/Hybrid at Peak Interest rates. It will save you money"
Yeah.. After you've spent a ton more Money, Paid the Govt its Taxes, Paid the Dealer its couple grand, and Agreed to a New Loan at 8-12%, now you will save Money at the Pump... lmao. Well there went your Gas Money you "Saved." It went to Taxes, Back-end(Warranty), Delivery Fees, Dealership Fees, Registration Fees. Oh but don't forget that lost Re-sale value. Value lost just driving it off the Lot. Yup.. Sure is a lot of Money Saved.

(This of Course Excludes the Top 20% who are already Well-off and see it as "No Problem" Replacing a Vehicle right now, or those who are able to have a Direct Trade without Spending "Much" Which means their Current Car before the New EV/Hybrid was a high resale Non-EV/Hybrid, Or this purchase is a Downgrade they are comfortable with).

[samagon]

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

The brown outs are to stop power lines from starting fires not due to too much power consumption. Its PG&E trying not to get sued again.

the cause doesn't matter much. the result is the same. brownouts.

[Kostamojen]

Originally Posted by samagon

the cause doesn't matter much. the result is the same. brownouts.

It does matter, because these "brownouts" are occuring in high fire risk areas in the mountains, not cities.

[White out]

Who knew that campaign strategies that seemed unlikely of achievement are becoming more unlikely as time goes on.

In other news, today on CARB adding $.47/gal tax in CA:
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...ds-gas-prices/

Maybe CARB will pay off for Jaguar's year off and switch to EV.

[samagon]

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

It does matter, because these "brownouts" are occuring in high fire risk areas in the mountains, not cities.

will the people affected be able to charge their vehicle?

[AVANTI R5]

Originally Posted by White out

Who knew that campaign strategies that seemed unlikely of achievement are becoming more unlikely as time goes on.

In other news, today on CARB adding $.47/gal tax in CA:
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...ds-gas-prices/

Maybe CARB will pay off for Jaguar's year off and switch to EV.

Hi White Out...

Read this article thought of your post, going throw this out for people who are unaware of the going on s in Cal and the Talk in their states about following Cal policies.


https://californiaglobe.com/fl/crazi...a2-per-gallon/

[samagon]

Originally Posted by AVANTI R5

Hi White Out...

Read this article thought of your post, going throw this out for people who are unaware of the going on s in Cal and the Talk in their states about following Cal policies.


https://californiaglobe.com/fl/crazi...a2-per-gallon/

I saw that gas prices are being taxed to be higher.

I'm curious how Newsom endorsing the raising of gas taxes is a push to stay relevant and electable as a next president of the USA. this falls into PP talk, but how exactly do you intend on getting the working class to vote for you if they see your policies as making it harder for them?

if this is the great next hope of the D, this recent election resulted in learning nothing.

[dwf137]

Originally Posted by Stanley

I tend to agree that California's EV mandates are untenable. Not just from an automotive supply side, but also from the cost of electricity. My car gets about 4 miles/kWh. Using my local electricity and gas rates, that is equivalent to a car getting ~25mpg. This ignores oil changes and other maintenance. Call it 30 mpg, which is generous, if you include all that additional maintenance. From a purely economic standpoint one is much better off economically buying a Camry. I also see electricity rates outpacing inflation for the foreseeable future as rate payers are subsidizing the T&D for data centers, and the existing infrastructure is being managed to failure.

First, I think your math is wrong. I don't know exactly where you live, but took a guess at bay area given your profile. $0.47/kwh. 4 mi/kwh. that's 8.51 miles per dollar. Gas price about $4.50/gallon. which is equivalent to about 38 miles for the price of a gallon of gasoline.

On top of that, bay area electricity costs are obscene and cannot be extrapolated across the entire country. I pay 1/4 of that per kwh, so where I live it would be more like 152 miles for the price of a gallon of gas.

[samagon]

it's all about costs regionally, and making math easy.

in Houston, regular unleaded today is $2.30 at Costco.

in a camry hybrid you can get 50mpg.

fuel costs 4.6 cents per mile?

my electricity bill says I pay 20.3 cents/kWh.

Tesla M3 gets 4.56 miles per kWh.

fuel costs 4.45 cents per mile?

if cost of driving was my concern, that juice is not worth the squeeze.

[dwf137]

Originally Posted by samagon

it's all about costs regionally, and making math easy.

100% all about local decisions. Shouldn't be a one-size-fits-all solution, on either side of the coin. EV makes sense some places like here in WA where gas is pretty much the highest in the nation second only to CA, and our electricity is super cheap and supplied by a ton of hydro instead of fossil fuels...

But as we all know, finances are only part of the equation.

[Stanley]

Originally Posted by dwf137

$0.47/kwh. 4 mi/kwh. that's 8.51 miles per dollar. Gas price about $4.50/gallon. which is equivalent to about 38 miles for the price of a gallon of gasoline.

I pay almost a buck on-peak in the summer, and completely agree with you that a gasoline vs. electricity analysis is highly localized.
Superchargers are usually in the $0.36 - $0.42 range, which gets my equivalent mpg up significantly, but have no idea how long the PPA's are that allow the below market pricing Tesla offers. Plus the car drives better than a Camry, imho, but that is completely subjective.

[Brahmzy]

Paging Scrappy

[dwf137]

Originally Posted by Stanley

I pay almost a buck on-peak in the summer, and completely agree with you that a gasoline vs. electricity analysis is highly localized.
Superchargers are usually in the $0.36 - $0.42 range, which gets my equivalent mpg up significantly, but have no idea how long the PPA's are that allow the below market pricing Tesla offers. Plus the car drives better than a Camry, imho, but that is completely subjective.

ev's make great city and traffic cars. Really no argument there, it's just plainly a better source of propulsion and instead of wasting all that energy with brake pads, you can regenerate some of it. I don't really like the fit/finish of a Tesla personally, but otherwise, ev's drive much better in most day-to-day situations unless maybe you live on a mountain pass with twisties for days on your daily commute...

That's just crazy expensive electricity though. Oof. I don't know that I'd have gone EV with electricity prices like that. My current rate is 10.263c/kw, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.