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Old 04-04-2022, 08:54 PM   #326
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What kind of loss are we lookin' at if someone buys a Core GR Corolla, fully loaded, but then has the option to trade it in for a Circuit Edition several months later? Because I can see plenty of people doing that as well.
My 2020 Si has 35k miles and is worth $2k more than I paid. So I wouldn't worry about depreciation.
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Old 04-04-2022, 09:06 PM   #327
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Meh.. Toyota will be releasing a different hot version every year with the diffs. Stop acting like this is a rare vehicle.
Nobody is ďactingĒ bud. 2023 model year, 5100 Core, 1500 Circuit Edition. Thatís for all of North America. That equates to roughly 1 CE and 4 Core per dealership but thatís not how allocation will end up working out. Thatís not much more production than the RS and that was 2016 through 2018. And back then no covid, chip shortages, global supply issues and more importantly there was more competition in this space. Reality for many, 2024, 2025.

Have fun.

https://www.grcorollaforum.com/threa...l-be-ugly.302/

https://www.motortrend.com/news/2023...-availability/
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Old 04-04-2022, 09:13 PM   #328
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Nobody is "acting" bud. 2023 model year, 5100 Core, 1500 Circuit Edition. That's for all of North America. That equates to roughly 1 CE and 4 Core per dealership but that's not how allocation will end up working out. That's not much more production than the RS and that was 2016 through 2018. And back then no covid, chip shortages, global supply issues and more importantly there was more competition in this space. Reality for many, 2024, 2025.

Have fun.

https://www.grcorollaforum.com/threa...l-be-ugly.302/

https://www.motortrend.com/news/2023...-availability/
I wonder if being 6mT only hurts some sales. But I expect they'll have an automatic in the 2nd or 3rd year.

People should consider the final price also, not just MSRP. I'm willing to pay $40k, maybe a little more, for a CE-like model. So if it's $38k MSRP with $3k ADM, or $41k MSRP and no ADM, it's the same to me.

We probably won't see MSRP this gen unless there's a nasty recession AND stock market crash. (not a recession with strong stock market).
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Old 04-04-2022, 09:28 PM   #329
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I wonder if being 6mT only hurts some sales. But I expect they'll have an automatic in the 2nd or 3rd year.

People should consider the final price also, not just MSRP. I'm willing to pay $40k, maybe a little more, for a CE-like model. So if it's $38k MSRP with $3k ADM, or $41k MSRP and no ADM, it's the same to me.

We probably won't see MSRP this gen unless there's a nasty recession AND stock market crash. (not a recession with strong stock market).
Here is another straight out the horse's mouth.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a3...ction-numbers/

https://www.yahoo.com/now/toyota-goa...200200520.html

Oh and this:

https://forums.nasioc.com/forums/sho....php?t=2944475
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Old 04-04-2022, 09:34 PM   #330
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I wonder if being 6mT only hurts some sales. But I expect they'll have an automatic in the 2nd or 3rd year.

We will get 3 MY of the current configuration before the next major model change for the Corolla. TNGA platform was new for the 2019 model, so the next major could carry over the G16 6MT, but I bet we will see a move to a 1 motor hybrid and 8AT if the GR Corolla gets another gen.


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Old 04-04-2022, 10:27 PM   #331
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We probably won't see MSRP this gen unless there's a nasty recession AND stock market crash. (not a recession with strong stock market).
There are dealerships out there, big ones even that won't mark up cars. It's first come first serve, like it should be. This, 86 and Supra are such peanuts cars in terms of volume that some dealers that are marking up the popular trucks and SUVs right now don't seem to bother with these. This is how the first dealer I put deposit down for 86 worked. Why duke it out with enthusiasts like me over $3k when Karen and Chad (yes, Pre's favorite neighbors) won't think twice about dropping $10k adm on some silly looking truck thing that was already a massive profit driver at $50k+ MSRP?

I guess a big part of it is where you are though
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Old 04-04-2022, 11:16 PM   #332
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We will get 3 MY of the current configuration before the next major model change for the Corolla. TNGA platform was new for the 2019 model, so the next major could carry over the G16 6MT, but I bet we will see a move to a 1 motor hybrid and 8AT if the GR Corolla gets another gen.
Perfect for me cause I can't buy til 2024 or 2025, will be out of the country. I don't think it's good to store a car so long, and don't want to pay for insurance while it's sitting in the garage. In a way I'm glad I don't have to deal with trying to find one this year.
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Old 04-04-2022, 11:45 PM   #333
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Perfect for me cause I can't buy til 2024 or 2025, will be out of the country. I don't think it's good to store a car so long, and don't want to pay for insurance while it's sitting in the garage. In a way I'm glad I don't have to deal with trying to find one this year.
Rutledge Wood mentioned murmurs about multiple special editions, so you might be way better position to get what you want by being forced to wait. Iíve been waiting since Nov of 2019 when I had dinner with a colleague in Japan and was told some things. Feels like a lifetime ago!
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Old 04-05-2022, 12:04 AM   #334
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Perfect for me cause I can't buy til 2024 or 2025, will be out of the country. I don't think it's good to store a car so long, and don't want to pay for insurance while it's sitting in the garage. In a way I'm glad I don't have to deal with trying to find one this year.

I may punt until 2024 myself. It took a full year of the RS being delivered before the bs subsided.


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I guess a big part of it is where you are though

Big time. One friend has a GR86 deposit, and his dealership hasn't even got a single one in yet. Another, he's been chasing it for months. He could have had several but all ADM. He's a market maven too so when he can't hunt one down for MSRP I know the market is fubar.
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Old 04-05-2022, 12:51 AM   #335
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Rutledge Wood mentioned murmurs about multiple special editions, so you might be way better position to get what you want by being forced to wait. Iíve been waiting since Nov of 2019 when I had dinner with a colleague in Japan and was told some things. Feels like a lifetime ago!
2019 was the last good vintage.
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Old 04-05-2022, 11:01 AM   #336
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you sure know how to whip up a frenzy in one simple post.

looking at sales figures of a STI (which is a similar price bracket) 8000 seems a reasonable number to sell what they have, but not make it unobtainium.

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Old 04-05-2022, 01:00 PM   #337
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you sure know how to whip up a frenzy in one simple post.

looking at sales figures of a STI (which is a similar price bracket) 8000 seems a reasonable number to sell what they have, but not make it unobtainium.
VW only sold 4224 Golf Rs during its best sales year of the MK7 and I was still seeing them on dealers lots here for MSRP. Likewise for the Type R and they sell less than 4000 of those per year as well.

I think the notion that you won't be able to find one of these to purchase is nonsensical and silly.
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Old 04-05-2022, 01:07 PM   #338
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The STI is dead and for all intents and purposes so is the WRX now that it's a neutered crossover sedan. They are no longer relevant today as the competition for this car is the Golf R and maybe the Civic Type R if you are okay with FWD.
The WRX will still be plenty relevant, however, it really depends on how the MSRP stacks up for the GRC Core (non-performance package) model, which aligns more to the WRX specs. If the Core Non-PP MSRP is aggressive towards the lower half of the $30k range, then the WRX would have to worry.

The WRX still sits in relatively in its own class as long as you don't spec it to higher trims. My take on AWD options is to stay with the WRX Base or Premium trims here. Once you go to Limited or GT, definitely consider GRC Core and up (or Golf R). If an auto is needed, maybe wait for the GRC AT models in a couple of years (or Golf R).
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Old 04-05-2022, 01:11 PM   #339
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you sure know how to whip up a frenzy in one simple post.

looking at sales figures of a STI (which is a similar price bracket) 8000 seems a reasonable number to sell what they have, but not make it unobtainium.
Data is not a frenzy. There are dealerships that have 60-70 deposits at them currently in California. Dealerships in Canada that have 10-20 deposits each. Everyone also thinks they are magically going to get a Circuit Edition model too This has nothing to do with frenzy it has everything to do with this thing called reality.

Toyota has released numbers for production. 6600 (as reported by MT) is not 8000 and 6600 is for all of North America. That's one circuit edition and 4 core for every dealership by the numbers but not how allocation is actually going to work. This is an all new model for the USDM not the STi which was sold here 2004-2021, with the same motor to boot. I've also seen data that suggests 1500 circuit editions and 5500 cores for the 2023 calendar year out of Motomachi and that includes Japan, Australia, and New Zealand but North America will receive 80% of that production/distribution.

I'm already seeing demand such that you'll be lucky to get a core edition next year. Believe what you want to believe. I've done the work. This is not a STi. The GR Yaris is produced in the same factory and has 2 year waiting lists. I think many are completely delusional at this point. Many people are putting deposits down at 3, 4, 5 or more dealerships and pricing hasn't even been released yet.

Then you have folks who think because a stealer took a deposit and gave them an arbitrary number that it means anything. I saw a guy yesterday post that he's #2 at the dealership where I have a deposit and am #2. I know I'm #2 because I put my deposit in almost a month ago and know who #1 is. This guy just put his money in over the weekend. So that's the case of another salesman giving someone that arbitrary number. It's meaningless as there is no ordering system, no pricing, no sheet for dealers to work off. Dealers cannot be trusted and any money given to them, lists, etc, is nothing more than good faith at this point, with a car dealer

Then you have the $45k Golf R as competition only. There is no more STi, and the WRX is extremely polarizing in the segment. People need to get real and understand supply and demand, basic economics. Maybe a new CTR release, Z pricing, etc, takes some hype off or people get frustrated with waiting and buy something else. Some of that is bound to happen but what is guaranteed is demand exceeding supply.

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Old 04-05-2022, 01:25 PM   #340
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The WRX will still be plenty relevant, however, it really depends on how the MSRP stacks up for the GRC Core (non-performance package) model, which aligns more to the WRX specs. If the Core Non-PP MSRP is aggressive towards the lower half of the $30k range, then the WRX would have to worry.

The WRX still sits in relatively in its own class as long as you don't spec it to higher trims. My take on AWD options is to stay with the WRX Base or Premium trims here. Once you go to Limited or GT, definitely consider GRC Core and up (or Golf R). If an auto is needed, maybe wait for the GRC AT models in a couple of years (or Golf R).
Also, the WRX is roomier; it's always going to be a better people hauler (even if I'm partial to hatchbacks/liftbacks/wagons).
My tentative plan is to get the GRC but keep the Golf R.
My wife will be looking at me like ; she's still asking why I sold my Dodge Charger to get into a tiny, low to the ground, Golf
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Old 04-05-2022, 01:39 PM   #341
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Also, the WRX is roomier; it's always going to be a better people hauler (even if I'm partial to hatchbacks/liftbacks/wagons).
My tentative plan is to get the GRC but keep the Golf R.
My wife will be looking at me like ; she's still asking why I sold my Dodge Charger to get into a tiny, low to the ground, Golf
Your argument could be that the GRC and the Golf R, combined, have more room than the Charger, so it's really a win for everyone.
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Old 04-05-2022, 01:55 PM   #342
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VW only sold 4224 Golf Rs during its best sales year of the MK7 and I was still seeing them on dealers lots here for MSRP. Likewise for the Type R and they sell less than 4000 of those per year as well.

I think the notion that you won't be able to find one of these to purchase is nonsensical and silly.
Maybe a closer or more accurate indicator would be the GR86/BRZ. In mid December, there was no indication that these would be particularly hard to get. As far as most dealers were concerned, MSRP was no problem if you're willing to wait 3-6 months - like almost all other Toyotas right now. By late January, it was clear that anyone without an allocation can have no idea whether they might get a car at all this year.

BUT, GR86 situation is complicated by the fact that Toyota royally screwed up the AT/MT split. A vast majority of the production so far (I would estimate 80% in US) has been AT. 80% of 250+ people who ordered cars (polled in a forum survey) want a manual. Disaster. To anyone being picky at all on color, getting what you want has become a lottery at best. Toyota has been almost equally off the mark on base/premium trim split vs. what people want. A premium MT 86 is worth its weight in gold and just shouldn't be.

The GRC at least won't have the automatic problem. Colors are so limited and meh, I expect that won't be a big deal for most people either. So it's just the package split. Hopefully they will try to gauge what people are going to want before setting production in stone - GR86 tells me no.

In terms of what people actually want think 1 or 2 package configurations will be most popular with base and fully loaded being outliers. So I expect most cars to be either base or fully loaded.
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Old 04-05-2022, 01:58 PM   #343
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Your argument could be that the GRC and the Golf R, combined, have more room than the Charger, so it's really a win for everyone.
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Old 04-05-2022, 02:18 PM   #344
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Maybe a closer or more accurate indicator would be the GR86/BRZ. In mid December, there was no indication that these would be particularly hard to get. As far as most dealers were concerned, MSRP was no problem if you're willing to wait 3-6 months - like almost all other Toyotas right now. By late January, it was clear that anyone without an allocation can have no idea whether they might get a car at all this year.
Yup, 100% accurate. Checked today, Longo has 100 deposits now. Seen other dealers were they have 50-60 deposits. It just keeps stacking and it hasn't even been a week. So many saying they've called 10 dealers, others state they've called every dealer in their state. It's nuts already.

For Longo, that's 3 years of production now for their deposits and pricing hasn't even been released.

All anyone can hope for is Toyota does an ordering system for it. Wherever you have a deposit, they call, ask for your spec, you place it and they fill it as they receive allocation. Akin to what they're doing on the GRY everywhere else. Either way, the used market, the flippers, will destroy this for the enthusiasts who've wanted it for years and been patiently waiting. Toyota does their normal allocation bs, best of luck, will be a total shat show.
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Old 04-05-2022, 02:33 PM   #345
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Toyota does their normal allocation bs, best of luck, will be a total shat show.
BS is right, yeah it will be the same for sure. Maybe some improvements will come - after all their new motto is "reserve yours today."

My condolences to the many people in here who will have to wade into it this year.

It probably worked fine in normal times, when placing a preference request was a rare last resort that would mean 3-4 month wait tops.
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Old 04-05-2022, 02:37 PM   #346
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A month ago my local Toyota dealer had two automatic transmission GR-86s that were in not allocated and unsold. So you could walk in the door and buy it. The higher end one sold in a few days and the base model car sold within two weeks. Not sure exactly but I was loosely watching them. I did not get into whether you could buy the car without a markup.
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Old 04-05-2022, 02:44 PM   #347
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Data is not a frenzy. There are dealerships that have 60-70 deposits at them currently in California. Dealerships in Canada that have 10-20 deposits each. Everyone also thinks they are magically going to get a Circuit Edition model too This has nothing to do with frenzy it has everything to do with this thing called reality.
that is a frenzy.

the MT article has the same details as the R&T article.

they are hoping to be Porsche like as far as only creating exactly what they need, well, what they need minus 1. at the end of the day though, the 6000 number for 2023, or 8000 number is a finger in the wind. "predicting that a full year of sales will end up" these numbers are prediction, not based on actual demand. they then say very clearly "Toyota's maintaining flexibility".

you can bet they are using the feedback they are receiving from Dealers right now to gauge interest, and determine the actual numbers they will begin delivering in September as 2023 YM. one thing is for sure, production ramp, will create limited early availability.

so yeah, the info you get from some echo chamber of excitement on a GR Corolla forum, I take any insights provided there with a lump of Himalayan rock salt. it's awesome and I appreciate your, and their enthusiasm, it just doesn't jive with what Toyota representatives have been quoted as saying.

at the end of the day, I'll still wait and go into a dealer near the end of the year, if they have something I want on the lots, great, if not, I expect I'll be able to drop a deposit on something that will match the specs I want, and I'll be given a date upon which I should expect the car to arrive. if the Internet of GR Corolla is right though, I'll just be laughed out of the dealership. which is ok too, because I'll just get in my car and drive home. at the end of the day, my wife wants me in a car with 4 doors, not me, and the BRZ still scratches the itch very well.

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Old 04-05-2022, 03:12 PM   #348
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that is a frenzy.

the MT article has the same details as the R&T article.

they are hoping to be Porsche like as far as only creating exactly what they need, well, what they need minus 1. at the end of the day though, the 6000 number for 2023, or 8000 number is a finger in the wind. "predicting that a full year of sales will end up" these numbers are prediction, not based on actual demand. they then say very clearly "Toyota's maintaining flexibility".

you can bet they are using the feedback they are receiving from Dealers right now to gauge interest, and determine the actual numbers they will begin delivering in September as 2023 YM. one thing is for sure, production ramp, will create limited early availability.

so yeah, the info you get from some echo chamber of excitement on a GR Corolla forum, I take any insights provided there with a lump of Himalayan rock salt. it's awesome and I appreciate your, and their enthusiasm, it just doesn't jive with what Toyota representatives have been quoted as saying.

at the end of the day, I'll still wait and go into a dealer near the end of the year, if they have something I want on the lots, great, if not, I expect I'll be able to drop a deposit on something that will match the specs I want, and I'll be given a date upon which I should expect the car to arrive. if the Internet of GR Corolla is right though, I'll just be laughed out of the dealership. which is ok too, because I'll just get in my car and drive home. at the end of the day, my wife wants me in a car with 4 doors, not me, and the BRZ still scratches the itch very well.
I'm not in a frenzy and not into hype. The data I presented is what it is. It's certainly not "enthusiasm". When people are putting deposits in, and getting #50, #60, or giving up when said dealer has 100 deposits already, that's just harsh reality that some just don't want to hear. I've seen this with the 86 for 2022 already with several people trying to grab one, and yeah they are getting laughed right out of the dealers already. Toyota has already given production numbers for 2023. They have stated publicly the entire car is limited production. Motomachi can only produce so much. The GRC is not the only car they make there. You can continue to be in disbelief, eat Himalyan rock salt, whatever you want to do. Basically ignore information you don't like. That factory is limited as far as production. Toyota can certainly ramp it up but that factory can only produce so much. That factory cannot produce numbers akin to their Camry plant for example.

That forum is a great tool for information. I see enthusiasm as it pertains to the car itself, the financial and numbers data is all I'm paying attention to however. I think that Toyota will end up going into a reservation/ordering model. They are going to have to. Again, they had to do this on the GRY with 2 year waiting lists. I think we will see the same, at least hopeful they migrate to this instead of their existing allocation model. If they stick with that allocation model, many will struggle to get one of these at all if they want a certain color with the packages they want. That is how much demand there is and again it hasn't even been a week since formal PR. The demand I'm seeing is enough to / the entire production run already. I think those who aren't picky about color/packages, sure, you can cop the bag but you'll be calling infinite amount of dealers.

I am not all hyped up. I'm taking the information I'm gathering and have already figured out a CE is more or less a pipe dream. I have probably a couple of % points of getting one and that's it. Color/packages I'll accept, I already know that could be 2, 2.5, 3 years. I'm not going to just take whatever I can get. I'll either wait or pivot to something else. If they pivot to an ordering system, will be much better for everyone so at least you can get what you want outside of a limited edition model. It will just be a matter of waiting and waiting. But that's better than their allocation model.

And I'm happy to be wrong, dead wrong. I've just followed this whole deal on the GRY for years now and know how the production plant where it is produced, works. I went through the RS debacle myself so I have a history with trying to get some limited production thing and those were very very different times. Best of luck to everyone.
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Old 04-05-2022, 03:21 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by samagon View Post
at the end of the day, I'll still wait and go into a dealer near the end of the year, if they have something I want on the lots, great, if not, I expect I'll be able to drop a deposit on something that will match the specs I want, and I'll be given a date upon which I should expect the car to arrive. if the Internet of GR Corolla is right though, I'll just be laughed out of the dealership. which is ok too, because I'll just get in my car and drive home. at the end of the day, my wife wants me in a car with 4 doors, not me, and the BRZ still scratches the itch very well.
You're in good shape everywhere but here. This is where there is a huge hole in Toyota's system today. No ETA is possible until the dealer gets an allocation that you're good with. The wait for the allocation is darkness.

I have had a few dealers laugh at me on my 86 hunt, but I think it was more a "why the heck do people want this thing all of a sudden" laugh.
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Old 04-05-2022, 03:24 PM   #350
Doobie Scoo
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Toyota said they were going to make one less car than needed. IE, unless you are the absolute last guy with money in hand trying to get one, you are going to get one.

In other good news the Yaris GR ECU was cracked this morning!!!
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