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Old 02-06-2019, 06:37 AM   #1
AVANTI R5
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Default Have Automakers Grossly Miscalculated Electric Vehicle Demand?



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Have Automakers Grossly Miscalculated Electric Vehicle Demand?

Right now, every major automaker is sinking huge amounts of money into developing and producing battery-electric cars, having already announced their plans to form an extensive range of EVs.

Yet, it’s quite possible that they have badly misjudged market demand and could end up with huge inventories sitting into dealerships’ backyards.

Deloitte’s analysts project that, by 2030, there will be a huge oversupply of electrified vehicles as manufacturers’ production numbers will greatly surpass demand! If that scenario materializes, then it will inevitably into a huge upheaval in the automotive industry, the effects of which, although difficult to pinpoint at this point, are going to be dire for many manufacturers.

Michael Woodward, UK automotive partner at Deloitte, said:

“Whilst there is a distinct trend developing in the EV market, the story is not a clear cut one. As manufacturers increase their capacity, our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade. This gearing up of EV production is driving a wide ‘expectation gap’ and manufacturers, both incumbent and new entrants alike, will need to adapt towards this new competitive landscape.”

EVs could eventually become even cheaper than gas models

The consulting firm states that EV prices will become comparable, or even lower than, gasoline- and diesel-powered models by 2024. They also expect 21 million all-electric vehicles to be manufactured over the next decade and assert that the market share for electric vehicles will, indeed, increase, but not as much as automakers expect it to, leading to an oversupply.



Last year, a record 2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide, which is twice the number achieved in 2017 and points to an increased popularity of BEVs (battery electric vehicles). Yet, only one in 250 cars on the road is an EV – and Norway, where the Leaf has climbed to the top of the sales charts and EVs account for a healthy 30 percent, is a unique case. In contrast, electric and plug-in hybrids represented less than 2 percent of total US sales, and just 2.2 percent on a global scale.

Automakers pushing electric cars

VW, in the aftermath of dieselgate, tied up its future with electrified vehicles, committing to a $50 billion investment and the building of the I.D. sub-brand as well as an EV-exclusive new modular platform. Mercedes-Benz, BMW and the rest have also done the same, driving forward with new EVs and bringing the fight to the likes of Tesla, who pioneered modern electric cars and caught the establishment by surprise. While founder Elon Musk may have over-promised and under-delivered more than a few times in Tesla’s relatively short history, and is only now starting to see a way out of the red, he saw the future before the rest.

Moreover, with almost 100,000 vehicles delivered in the last quarter, Tesla is gearing up to achieve its goal of half a million annual global sales, driven mainly by (finally) rolling out the Model 3 consistently. Thus, it became the best-selling premium car in the world’s second-largest market, the U.S., despite the fact that its more accessible version is not available yet.

Musk’s company, though, is a minnow compared to the VW Group or Daimler, who want to produce many times as many vehicles. And despite its success, it had to lay off 3,000 employees in order to make the promised $35k Model 3 viable.

In a couple of decades, the internal combustion engine will, in all likelihood, be just a memory. The problem is that the very same thing that caused its demise may actually result in some brands joining it as well.
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Old 02-06-2019, 06:58 AM   #2
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Must be a slow news day.
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Old 02-09-2019, 11:11 PM   #3
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Combustion engineering engines dead in 20 years? I doubt it. No new cars with only combustion engines? I could see that.
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Old 02-09-2019, 11:52 PM   #4
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I think manufacturers have been read the riot act and must get on board. Regulations will demand electrics.
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Old 02-19-2019, 06:54 PM   #5
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Future regulations have manufacturers reeling, as well as the "no new ICE vehicle sales by 20XX" agreement going around Europe & Asia.

Beyond that, as much as manufacturers are trying to globalize vehicles, that doesn't work for the most part. Safety sure, but range, performance, efficiency, and a myriad of other things vary by country/region. A nissan leaf works amazingly in small European countries, but not so much in most of America. Same deal on the other side of the coin. Full size pickups work in most of America, but not in small European countries. There is a middle ground there that works for everyone, but I'm too tired to go on with examples.

Prediction: The US will be the last to adopt/sign the "no new ICE vehicles by 20XX" agreement, the majority of European countries will miss their targets or adjust them, the majority of Asian countries will beat their targets.
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Old 02-19-2019, 10:56 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Sid03SVT View Post
Future regulations have manufacturers reeling, as well as the "no new ICE vehicle sales by 20XX" agreement going around Europe & Asia.

Beyond that, as much as manufacturers are trying to globalize vehicles, that doesn't work for the most part. Safety sure, but range, performance, efficiency, and a myriad of other things vary by country/region. A nissan leaf works amazingly in small European countries, but not so much in most of America. Same deal on the other side of the coin. Full size pickups work in most of America, but not in small European countries. There is a middle ground there that works for everyone, but I'm too tired to go on with examples.

Prediction: The US will be the last to adopt/sign the "no new ICE vehicles by 20XX" agreement, the majority of European countries will miss their targets or adjust them, the majority of Asian countries will beat their targets.
Wrong. You must have forgotten about Mexico, South America and every other 2nd to 3rd world country where EV is not realistically feasible in the near term.
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Old 02-19-2019, 11:11 PM   #7
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I think manufacturers have been read the riot act and must get on board. Regulations will demand electrics.
Regulations will FORCE electrics.

And they better get moving if we are all gonna be alive in another 12 years.
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Old 02-19-2019, 11:25 PM   #8
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And they better get moving if we are all gonna be alive in another 12 years.



I didn’t see; Post Apocalyptic LEGO Movie 2 : The Training Simulator ; for nothing gosh darn it.

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Old 02-19-2019, 11:34 PM   #9
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Old 02-19-2019, 11:44 PM   #10
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They didn't underestimate, they've known it's been coming and have been trying to convince us otherwise for many years.
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Old 02-20-2019, 07:31 AM   #11
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Wrong. You must have forgotten about Mexico, South America and every other 2nd to 3rd world country where EV is not realistically feasible in the near term.
I was talking primarily about 1st world countries, the countries that manufacture and export vehicles globally; the only exception being Asian countries (2nd world), specifically China with their aggressive EV motivation.

I don't think Russia is going to go EV only any time soon either, but they aren't a global exporter of vehicles, neither is Mexico or SA, although several manufacturers have plants in Mexico, which will likely affect what they manufacture and/or quantity of what is manufactured there.
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:37 PM   #12
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The articlesays EVs will be cheaper than comparable non-EVs by 2024, but by 2030 there will be an oversupply of EVs?

Those 2 predictions seem to be at odds with each other.
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:50 PM   #13
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Make me a fun EV at a reasonable price and I'd be all over it. Until then I'll keep enjoying my ICE.

I'm not kidding either... I'd certainly replace my R with an electric version of the same car if the price were the same or cheaper. I have minor green-guilt driving my R around when I know I could be driving an EV powered by 95% renewable resources.

I think there's demand, I just think that they're not making vehicles that enough people want. I don't want a goofy leaf. I don't want a tablet driven tesla. I don't want to buy a car with 120 hp. And not many others do either. Get the power numbers up. Get the mileage numbers up. Bring the price down. The people will come.
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:58 PM   #14
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It's not about the HP, it's the torque and instant delivery of it.


Have you driven an EV?


Even our puny Leaf gets up and goes pretty damn well for around the town driving, especially for what it is (cheap, compact car)
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Old 02-22-2019, 04:27 PM   #15
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It's not about the HP, it's the torque and instant delivery of it.


Have you driven an EV?


Even our puny Leaf gets up and goes pretty damn well for around the town driving, especially for what it is (cheap, compact car)
It's quick isn't it? I'm talking city driving. It's fast AF off the line and up to about 45 mph. Then it tapers off but it's got plenty of torque and will accelerate well.

But he is right that the EV options out there are sparse currently, and expensive. (Not a used Leaf though, they are a g damn steal!)
I love having it in the stable as the DD and beater. It's keeping miles off the rest of my fleet, so much so my RS will last me 20 years or longer, which probably means to death. I'm about to hit 26k on the Leaf and it's only seen the stealer for annual state inspection. Will last me 7-8 more years easily and at that point it'll still be going but I'm hoping there will be an AWD hatch EV on the cheap. For what it does and is, best car I have ever owned.
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Old 02-22-2019, 04:38 PM   #16
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Indeed.


Scored a set of Altima wheels to pop on it and keep the steelies for winter use. Just gotta paint 1 more, then mount some tires. Somehow the prior owner managed to curb all 4 damn near to the center caps Into them for $150 with the majority being paint, sanding supplies etc.... Has been a fun garage project.
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:30 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Hondaslayer View Post
It's not about the HP, it's the torque and instant delivery of it.

Have you driven an EV?

Even our puny Leaf gets up and goes pretty damn well for around the town driving, especially for what it is (cheap, compact car)
I want something that mimics the acceleration I get out of my R all the way to about 100. (I drive on closed roads every day. ). EV is fast off the line because of the insta-torque, but once it gets wound up, it is outpaced quick, hence wanting higher hp...
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Old 02-22-2019, 06:40 PM   #18
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Nah. A lot of people really want EVs, they just:
  1. Can't afford them yet / are waiting for prices to drop futher.
  2. Don't understand the economics of them. Just this week I chatted with a Volt owner that claimed that it was cheaper to run on gas in SoCal (hint: it's not).
  3. Massively overestimate the range they need on a daily basis. ("I need an EV that goes 500 miles on a charge or it's not worth it")
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