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Old 01-20-2021, 07:21 PM   #3226
parker
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I have yet to see one person recommend closing all the business.

Doesn't stop covidiots from parroting though.

Soo funny how people love to put carts before donkey's.
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:12 AM   #3227
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https://laist.com/latest/post/20210120/covid-case-numbers-are-starting-to-decrease-in-LA-but-officials-say-surge-isnt-over

The day after inauguration? Imagine that. Excellent work, Biden!
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:06 AM   #3228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheViking85 View Post
No, it's not.
Ok. Close down society because a small fraction of the population dies, keep touting that nonsensical BS. People with comorbidities die sooner than healthy people, it's been like that since the begging of time. Old, sick people die, that's life. Get your vaccines, wear a mask and reopen the economy and industries. Our biggest mistake was putting doctors in charge of this pandemic. A pandemic is not a public health emergency, it's a public emergency. Minimising deaths and case counts should be one part of a bigger picture along with to ensure that we do not neglect any other pre-existing diseases or conditions. The long-term impact of the response will be felt for years in societal breakdown, blowing hundreds of billions of dollars out the door, mental health problems and the increasing prevalence of other diseases. Everything governments have done up to this point has been a complete failure.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:17 AM   #3229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by parker View Post
I have yet to see one person recommend closing all the business.

Doesn't stop covidiots from parroting though.

Soo funny how people love to put carts before donkey's.
I'm assuming you've never owned a restaurant (or other service industry type establishment), so it's forgivable if you don't understand that going from 100% capacity to 50% capacity breaks businesses, and may as well be asking them to close.

a lot of costs are variable, if you're making half as many pizzas you only need half as many ingredients, if you're seating half as many tables, you only need half as much staff. if you're taking half as many credit card transactions they want less money from you. state taxes are lower.

after that, costs remain pretty constant. electrical and gas doesn't go down cause you still gotta keep your pizza ovens at temp, you still gotta keep the dining room at temp, you still gotta keep the lights on. insurance doesn't change, internet costs don't change, and the big hunka chunka, the rent doesn't go down, and the CAM doesn't go down.

if you're a successful pizza joint you're doing about 10% margin, if you're good. so say you have a 1 million dollar pizza joint, you clear 100k. your rent (including CAM) is probably in the neighborhood of 10k a month, maybe more, maybe less depending on location and whoever else you're sharing the CAM.

so you drop to 500k revenue, but you still owe 100k to your landlords, but instead of it being 10% of your revenue, it's now 20%. which basically means your entire margin just got ate. that's if your rent+cam wasn't higher than 10% of your original budget. and that doesn't consider the other fixed costs.

realistically, you hope to have a good relationship with your landlord and hope they are willing to get creative with your lease, which, if they are business savvy, they will be, it's better to make 50% of the expected lease agreement than 0%. but then, if they are being lenient, someone up their food chain has to be lenient to them, etc.

PPP, as we have seen it, may get them over the line, but it's likely still not enough.

at the end of the day, most businesses just cannot operate at 50% capacity for any length of time (even with the PPP they received), so saying a business has to operate at 50% of capacity is the same as saying they have to close. which, if you look at the stats from that second article I linked, more than half of restaurants and bars have had to close permanently.

I'm certainly not saying we need to open businesses back up full bore, it's got to be more nuanced (and not a simple algorithm)... even the discussion sucks... how do you weigh the deaths of over 400k people against millions being out of work and unable to pay bills (and the mental struggles that comes with)?

oh, all the above is assuming you have paid off the SBA you used to open your business, and don't have any other outstanding loans, cause those are absolutely fixed costs as well.

Last edited by samagon; 01-21-2021 at 11:49 AM.
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Old 01-21-2021, 12:56 PM   #3230
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Interesting logic, but there is an assumption that the restaurant is operating at 100% capacity at all times normally. Every place I have worked / eaten at has peaks and lulls. Only when capacity exceeds 50% would they be impacted. Granted, this is still probably a big impact.

Also, while dining is certainly impacted, I would be willing to bet that take-out (& delivery if they offer it) has increased.

I am not saying this to try to minimize the impacts some restaurants are experiencing, but it is not a given conclusion that every restaurant might as well just be closed.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:06 PM   #3231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jutes85 View Post
Ok. Close down society because a small fraction of the population dies, keep touting that nonsensical BS. People with comorbidities die sooner than healthy people, it's been like that since the begging of time. Old, sick people die, that's life. Get your vaccines, wear a mask and reopen the economy and industries. Our biggest mistake was putting doctors in charge of this pandemic. A pandemic is not a public health emergency, it's a public emergency. Minimising deaths and case counts should be one part of a bigger picture along with to ensure that we do not neglect any other pre-existing diseases or conditions. The long-term impact of the response will be felt for years in societal breakdown, blowing hundreds of billions of dollars out the door, mental health problems and the increasing prevalence of other diseases. Everything governments have done up to this point has been a complete failure.
You"re ok with 6 million dead Americans? They tried that minimizing logic with the Holocaust, man.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:12 PM   #3232
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Woot, woot! Got round 1 today (Moderna). Feel like I'm late to the game, because most of our friends/colleagues have gotten theirs already - many faculty and biomedical folks, plus our parents.

They definitely must be implanting nanobots, because they never checked my ID or asked for insurance info/payment.

Really grateful this thing is getting rolled out!
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:24 PM   #3233
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flat_tire View Post
Interesting logic, but there is an assumption that the restaurant is operating at 100% capacity at all times normally. Every place I have worked / eaten at has peaks and lulls. Only when capacity exceeds 50% would they be impacted. Granted, this is still probably a big impact.

Also, while dining is certainly impacted, I would be willing to bet that take-out (& delivery if they offer it) has increased.

I am not saying this to try to minimize the impacts some restaurants are experiencing, but it is not a given conclusion that every restaurant might as well just be closed.
you're right, maybe you don't hit 100% occupancy till 6pm, but are open from 11am, but just due to the nature of how people are reacting, your seating is going to be down during those lulls also, just not at a restricted level.

the calculus is more along the lines of either daily, or weekly targets. maybe you can run 70% of your target and squeak by, maybe you can run 30% and can either bleed out your savings to keep going for 3 or 4 months before eventually closing.

however you figure it, the reality is that more than 50% of restaurants/bars have closed permanently in large cities, some of that is due to restrictions imposed, some of that is bad business models using covid as an excuse to fold up, lots of reasons. we still end up at the same spot, which is a sad banana.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:41 PM   #3234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samagon View Post
you're right, maybe you don't hit 100% occupancy till 6pm, but are open from 11am, but just due to the nature of how people are reacting, your seating is going to be down during those lulls also, just not at a restricted level.

the calculus is more along the lines of either daily, or weekly targets. maybe you can run 70% of your target and squeak by, maybe you can run 30% and can either bleed out your savings to keep going for 3 or 4 months before eventually closing.

however you figure it, the reality is that more than 50% of restaurants/bars have closed permanently in large cities, some of that is due to restrictions imposed, some of that is bad business models using covid as an excuse to fold up, lots of reasons. we still end up at the same spot, which is a sad banana.
Another huge thing to consider (at least in PA) is the loss of bar revenue almost entirely. The margins on drinks are large, and for a single customer you can be making money on them before and after their meal at the bar. Restaurants here were at 50% capacity, but bars within restaurants were not allowed to operate.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:49 PM   #3235
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The same crowd that wants everything open is also the crowd that fights other measures such as masks and contract tracing. My friends in Singapore are going out to dinner and shopping when, where, and how they like. Similarly for my Kiwi friends. Give a little to get a lot.

The people who can't comply with those two simple and free measures are EXACTLY the reason shutdowns are necessary to avoid littering the countryside with bodies. **** them.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:54 PM   #3236
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I wonder how Sweden is doing with that whole herd immunity approach??
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:55 PM   #3237
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Good ol’ Seattle Times.

Todays editorial: Open the schools!

Literally the next ****ing page: Deaths are up, cases are up, the new variant is here and spread appears driven by children.......



Hey left hand, wazzup?!?!?
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Old 01-21-2021, 02:04 PM   #3238
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Originally Posted by junebugfareast View Post
The same crowd that wants everything open is also the crowd that fights other measures such as masks and contract tracing. My friends in Singapore are going out to dinner and shopping when, where, and how they like. Similarly for my Kiwi friends. Give a little to get a lot.

The people who can't comply with those two simple and free measures are EXACTLY the reason shutdowns are necessary to avoid littering the countryside with bodies. **** them.
We're benefitting now from the having gone through the pain of a real lock-down earlier in the year (not leaving home for six weeks). We're out for dinner and staying at a hotel tonight and will do my best to use the contact tracing app while we're out.

There have been no new community cases for a few months but the govt is still pushing people pretty hard to continue to use the contact tracing app. Its inevitable that it gets through the quarantine procedures again and they want to be able to act quickly when it does.
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Old 01-21-2021, 02:24 PM   #3239
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Yep its to bad we have two many morons to do that.
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Old 01-21-2021, 02:52 PM   #3240
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Quote:
Originally Posted by junebugfareast View Post
The same crowd that wants everything open is also the crowd that fights other measures such as masks and contract tracing. My friends in Singapore are going out to dinner and shopping when, where, and how they like. Similarly for my Kiwi friends. Give a little to get a lot.

The people who can't comply with those two simple and free measures are EXACTLY the reason shutdowns are necessary to avoid littering the countryside with bodies. **** them.
if masking up allows myself and others to stay in business because it slows the spread of the virus, I'm all about it.

it's nothing but another article of clothing, if women are required to wear shirts in public for some social construct called decency, everyone can mask up for health and safety.
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Old 01-21-2021, 02:59 PM   #3241
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samagon View Post
if masking up allows myself and others to stay in business because it slows the spread of the virus, I'm all about it.

it's nothing but another article of clothing, if women are required to wear shirts in public for some social construct called decency, everyone can mask up for health and safety.
Damn great idea.

Hey rednecks! Wear a mask and we’ll allow women to be topless....
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Old 01-21-2021, 03:27 PM   #3242
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My wife got her second 2.5g programming today.

So in a few weeks she'll be 5.0 y0.

Only thing she felt from the first one was pain site injection. Site pain injection? Injection pain site? Ok her arm hurt but her boobies are okay, cuz I checked.
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Old 01-21-2021, 03:34 PM   #3243
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Originally Posted by Bonzo View Post
My wife got her second 2.5g programming today.

So in a few weeks she'll be 5.0 y0.

Only thing she felt from the first one was pain site injection. Site pain injection? Injection pain site? Ok her arm hurt but her boobies are okay, cuz I checked.
Just make sure you keep checking.
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Old 01-21-2021, 04:11 PM   #3244
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Damn great idea.

Hey rednecks! Wear a mask and we’ll allow women to be topless....
it's win/win, until Amy Schumer starts prancing around topless.
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Old 01-21-2021, 04:31 PM   #3245
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I've seen Bert Kreischer topless enough that I think Amy wouldn't be a stretch
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Old 01-21-2021, 04:43 PM   #3246
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I've seen Bert Kreischer topless enough that I think Amy wouldn't be a stretch
Oh, there’s plenty of stretch.
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Old 01-21-2021, 04:52 PM   #3247
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Old 01-21-2021, 04:54 PM   #3248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kiwi View Post
We're benefitting now from the having gone through the pain of a real lock-down earlier in the year (not leaving home for six weeks). We're out for dinner and staying at a hotel tonight and will do my best to use the contact tracing app while we're out.

There have been no new community cases for a few months but the govt is still pushing people pretty hard to continue to use the contact tracing app. Its inevitable that it gets through the quarantine procedures again and they want to be able to act quickly when it does.
I know you guys have had your share of trying individuals (the same type we have here in large quantities). How do they feel about the initial lock down now?

Again so jelly.
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Old 01-21-2021, 05:04 PM   #3249
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Just make sure you keep checking.
I do, but she says I'm annoying.
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Old 01-21-2021, 05:14 PM   #3250
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I do, but she says I'm annoying.
She wears a bra for support all day. Just tell her your hands don’t have wires. If they’re cold, just warm them in a muff.
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