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Old 01-31-2019, 09:56 AM   #1726
arghx7
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The whole "these are people who just want the latest thing" point I totally agree with. That's why I think there's an EV bubble building. People want the latest thing, which is a Tesla, or maybe a few Porsche Taycan vehicles. So how much demand is there for that? Who is going to buy these hundreds of thousands/millions of new EV's going to production from other brands? Will people start buying an Audi Model 3 competitor, or an electric F150?

The whole chicken and egg problem of needing volume to bring the cost down and needing lower prices for more demand is going to blow up in the faces of at least some of these automakers.
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Old 01-31-2019, 10:09 AM   #1727
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Originally Posted by arghx7 View Post
The whole "these are people who just want the latest thing" point I totally agree with. That's why I think there's an EV bubble building. People want the latest thing, which is a Tesla, or maybe a few Porsche Taycan vehicles. So how much demand is there for that? Who is going to buy these hundreds of thousands/millions of new EV's going to production?
EV's are going to madated. Have you heard of China? or many other countries that are setting gasoline car bans.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:10 PM   #1728
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An electric vehicle runs on a road in Beijing. [Photo/VCG] China Daily news

Some applicants for Beijing license plate must line up for eight years to receive a new energy vehicle plate, as the city announced the quota available in 2019.

The quota for new energy vehicles available to car buyers in Beijing will remain at 60,000 in 2019, the same as last year, said Beijing Transport Commission on Wednesday. The quota for gasoline-powered cars will stay unchanged at 40,000.

Of the new energy vehicle plates, 90 percent will go to individual purchasers, and the remainder to applicants from organizations and companies. Individual owners will be allotted 95 percent of gasoline-powered car plates, with the rest going to other applicants.

Beijing introduced a license plate lottery system in 2011 to curb the growth rate of new automobiles. Under the system, potential car buyers have to participate in a lottery every two months for a purchase permit.

As of December 2018, more than 3 million people have registered with the lottery system to get a purchase permit, with the odds of winning a plate at 1 in 500.

While the quota for license plate has dropped from 240,000 in 2011 to 100,000 last year, the quota for new energy car has increased from 20,000 in 2014 to 60,000 as the city turns to electric vehicles to ease air pollution.

Compared to conventional vehicles, the license plates for new energy vehicles are distributed on a first-come, first-serve basis.

As of December 2018, more than 400,000 people have applied to buy a new energy vehicle. With the quota available this year, some applicants need to wait eight years to get plates.

In September, Beijing issued a three-year action plan on improving air quality. The plan aims to reduce vehicle pollutant emissions by 30 percent from 2017 to 2020.

Last edited by Masterauto; 02-01-2019 at 02:47 PM.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:42 PM   #1729
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An electric vehicle runs on a road in Beijing. [Photo/VCG]

Some applicants for Beijing license plate must line up for eight years to receive a new energy vehicle plate, as the city announced the quota available in 2019.

The quota for new energy vehicles available to car buyers in Beijing will remain at 60,000 in 2019, the same as last year, said Beijing Transport Commission on Wednesday. The quota for gasoline-powered cars will stay unchanged at 40,000.

Of the new energy vehicle plates, 90 percent will go to individual purchasers, and the remainder to applicants from organizations and companies. Individual owners will be allotted 95 percent of gasoline-powered car plates, with the rest going to other applicants.

Beijing introduced a license plate lottery system in 2011 to curb the growth rate of new automobiles. Under the system, potential car buyers have to participate in a lottery every two months for a purchase permit.

As of December 2018, more than 3 million people have registered with the lottery system to get a purchase permit, with the odds of winning a plate at 1 in 500.

While the quota for license plate has dropped from 240,000 in 2011 to 100,000 last year, the quota for new energy car has increased from 20,000 in 2014 to 60,000 as the city turns to electric vehicles to ease air pollution.

Compared to conventional vehicles, the license plates for new energy vehicles are distributed on a first-come, first-serve basis.

As of December 2018, more than 400,000 people have applied to buy a new energy vehicle. With the quota available this year, some applicants need to wait eight years to get plates.

In September, Beijing issued a three-year action plan on improving air quality. The plan aims to reduce vehicle pollutant emissions by 30 percent from 2017 to 2020.
Just a point of clarification; although they are only issuing 100,000 new plates combined for the city, this does not curb the purchase of replacement cars; eg. if you already have a plate, you can buy a new car to put that plate on (and will likely have to sell your old car outside of city limits) as the plates stay with the individual, not the vehicle.
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Old 01-31-2019, 07:52 PM   #1730
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So:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...growth-machine

$139.5M profit for the quarter. Most blurbs focus that they missed wall st guidance on that, but that shows the guidance was ****ty more than anything, right?

I know nothing about the capex vs depreciation ratio harped upon in this linked article. Anyone care to expound on that a bit more?
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:13 PM   #1731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
So:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...growth-machine

$139.5M profit for the quarter. Most blurbs focus that they missed wall st guidance on that, but that shows the guidance was ****ty more than anything, right?

I know nothing about the capex vs depreciation ratio harped upon in this linked article. Anyone care to expound on that a bit more?


Anyway:

Quote:
. Tesla Model 3 Brings Joy: Ranked #1 By Consumer Reports Subscribers
Steven Loveday
10 hours ago

The Tesla Model 3 is the most satisfying car on the market according to Consumer Reports.
Just the other day we shared some good news from Consumer Reports (CR). The publication noted that its readers chose the premium all-electric Tesla Model 3 as its top-rated luxury compact car. Over the years, CR has been hot and cold when it comes to Tesla. Early on, it didn’t recommend the Model 3. Fortunately, that changed. However, not long after that, the organization shared that there were still issues. Fast forward to today and CR has released the results of its annual owner satisfaction survey. As it turns out, the Model 3 not only makes the top ten list, but leads it.


More From Consumer Reports:
Tesla Model 3 Is Top Rated Luxury Compact Car By Consumer Reports Readers
Consumer Reports Calls Tesla's Direct Sales Model An Inspiration
Consumer Reports Tests Tesla's Navigate On Autopilot
According to Consumer Reports:

Our subscribers provide great insights into their satisfaction by answering one simple question: If they had it to do all over again, would they definitely buy or lease the same model? In addition, respondents also rate their cars in six categories: driving experience, comfort, value, styling, audio, and climate systems.

The organization goes on to say that this data lets prospective buyers know if a car actually lived up to its promises, along with providing what owners expect from the car. Clearly, the Model 3 has done its job and then some. In fact, it beat out the iconic Porsche 911 to top this year’s list.


CR surveys owners of over a half a million vehicles to come up with these results. Needless to say, this is not some unscientific poll based on a handful of opinions, but rather a highly respected award from one of the industry’s top consumer research organizations.

Are you satisfied with your Tesla Model 3? Does it bring you lots of joy? Let us know in the comment section below
https://www.google.com/amp/s/insidee...r-reports/amp/
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Old 02-05-2019, 10:09 PM   #1732
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shikataganai View Post
So:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...growth-machine

$139.5M profit for the quarter. Most blurbs focus that they missed wall st guidance on that, but that shows the guidance was ****ty more than anything, right?

I know nothing about the capex vs depreciation ratio harped upon in this linked article. Anyone care to expound on that a bit more?
Me-sa thinks you need to take some time and and understand business, stocks, p&l.

Yep, Tesla posted its 2nd quarter of profit which is great! However, sales volume was down from prior quarter possibly indicated a decrease in demand. It was pretty much well expected that sales volume would have increased given production ramp up over q3 and 4.

This very well could have just been a one of quarter decline so we will have to wait until q1 numbers are in with focus on US numbers.
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Old 02-05-2019, 10:27 PM   #1733
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Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
Me-sa thinks you need to take some time and and understand business, stocks, p&l.

Yep, Tesla posted its 2nd quarter of profit which is great! However, sales volume was down from prior quarter possibly indicated a decrease in demand. It was pretty much well expected that sales volume would have increased given production ramp up over q3 and 4.

This very well could have just been a one of quarter decline so we will have to wait until q1 numbers are in with focus on US numbers.
Tesla already said that Q1 cars are mostly going to Europe and China so you are going to be disappointed .

Tesla just lowered the price of all their cars, you can now get a Performance model 3 for $60,900 before incentives that's a hell of a deal. The midrage starts at $42,900 and they make 20% +gross margin on those... If they were willing to take less margin the $35,000 version would be around the corner.

and this is cool:

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Old 02-05-2019, 11:57 PM   #1734
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Originally Posted by juanmedina View Post
Tesla already said that Q1 cars are mostly going to Europe and China so you are going to be disappointed .

Tesla just lowered the price of all their cars, you can now get a Performance model 3 for $60,900 before incentives that's a hell of a deal. The midrage starts at $42,900 and they make 20% +gross margin on those... If they were willing to take less margin the $35,000 version would be around the corner.

and this is cool:

https://youtu.be/IBpERaN2Yxw
You do realize that a lot of investors are focused more so on US numbers than foreign as a continued decline in sales paints a bad picture. The lowering on price does indicate that demand has fallen some and to attract buyers they need to cut price and margin. If that trend were to continue, it won’t be pretty.

You also need to remove your head from your anus. I don’t want to see sales decline or overall revenue. I said it’s a possibility. Christ, you sure are ****ing dense.
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Old 02-06-2019, 01:01 AM   #1735
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Quote:
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You also need to remove your head from your anus. I don’t want to see sales decline or overall revenue. I said it’s a possibility. Christ, you sure are ****ing dense.
Is that necessary? You are a moderator right?
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Old 02-06-2019, 01:42 AM   #1736
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He’s extra salty tonight.
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Old 02-06-2019, 08:38 AM   #1737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
You do realize that a lot of investors are focused more so on US numbers than foreign as a continued decline in sales paints a bad picture. The lowering on price does indicate that demand has fallen some and to attract buyers they need to cut price and margin. If that trend were to continue, it won’t be pretty.

You also need to remove your head from your anus. I don’t want to see sales decline or overall revenue. I said it’s a possibility. Christ, you sure are ****ing dense.
Lowering price was due the cut off the refferal program and they are probably trying to match the $3750 that the incentive was cut off by. The world is big place and when they reach that $35,000 the maket will open by a factor of five some say.

Last edited by juanmedina; 02-06-2019 at 12:38 PM.
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Old 02-06-2019, 12:00 PM   #1738
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Default Tesla: Catch-all News, Rumors & Opinions

Tax credit is $3750 less these two quarters.

With the two price drops the cars are $3100 cheaper than before. So apples to apples net price is only $650 more now.
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Old 02-06-2019, 02:51 PM   #1739
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https://mashable.com/article/tesla-m.../#r3a5VwTqUGqx

Quote:
Still waiting for that $35,000 Tesla Model 3? According to company CEO Elon Musk, it's already here, though you'll have to employ some suspension of disbelief to arrive at that number.

"Model 3 starting cost now ~$35k (after ~$8k of credits & fuel savings)," Musk tweeted on Wednesday.

If you go to Tesla's order page for the Model 3, you'll see the cheapest, rear-wheel drive with a mid-range battery starting at $34,850. Tesla breaks down the pricing as follows: The car itself costs $42,900, the incentives are $3,750, and gas savings are $4,300.

The $35k number is a tough sell, though. The $3,750 reduction in price is nothing to sneer at, but back in 2015, Elon Musk explicitly said that the Model 3 will cost $35,000 without tax incentives, and he kept repeating it prior to the launch. Also note that the tax incentives will get cut in half on July 1 and are completely going away at year's end. And while fuel savings in an electric car are definitely real, they're very different than the car actually costing less from the start.



Quote:
Elon Musk

@elonmusk

Model 3 starting cost now ~$35k (after ~$8k of credits & fuel savings) http://Tesla.com
26.8K
2:05 AM - Feb 6, 2019
Really gas savings
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Old 02-06-2019, 03:26 PM   #1740
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SubaDuba420 View Post

https://imgur.com/gallery/UYz2JIy


In Colorado with just incentives it would cost $34,150.

Some gas savings are real but Tesla should not include those savings as part of the cost on their website the way they do. They been doing that since the beginning so I doubt that will change.

I have a free charger at work and I probably have charged at home 7 times if that. My Evo or the IS-F used to get 15-18mpg and I had to run 93oct; I am now at around 4000 miles on my Tesla P3D. Do the math? I could careless about gas savings when I bought the car and it was never part of the equation.

Joe Rogans description of how driving a Tesla feels is spot on. The effortless acceleration is insane:

Last edited by juanmedina; 02-06-2019 at 08:51 PM.
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Old 02-08-2019, 02:57 PM   #1741
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https://newsroom.aaa.com/2014/03/ext...ange-aaa-says/

Temperatures Affect Electric Vehicle Driving Range, AAA Says
Save

Heather HunterNew study conducted by the AAA Automotive Research Center shows electric vehicle driving range can be nearly 60 percent lower in extreme cold and 33 percent lower in extreme heat.

ORLANDO, Fla., (March 20, 2014) – Electric Vehicles (EVs) are energy efficient and environmentally-friendly with the added benefit of reducing fuel costs for motorists. But, just as motorists need to know how far the gas in their tank will take them, EV drivers need to be aware of how far their vehicle can travel on a single charge. According to new AAA research conducted with the AAA Automotive Research Center in Southern California, electric vehicle range can be reduced by an average of 57 percent based on the temperature outside.

Additional Resources

Infographic: How far can you go in an electric vehicle?

“Electric motors provide smooth operation, strong acceleration, require less maintenance than internal combustion engines, and for many motorists offer a cost effective option,” said John Nielsen, managing director, AAA Automotive Engineering and Repair. “However, EV drivers need to carefully monitor driving range in hot and cold weather.”

To better understand the impact of climate on electric vehicle batteries, AAA conducted a simulation to measure the driving range of three fully-electric vehicles in cold, moderate and hot weather. Temperature made a big difference in driving range for all three EVs.

Vehicles were tested for city driving to mimic stop-and-go traffic, and to better compare with EPA ratings listed on the window sticker. The average EV battery range in AAA’s test was 105 miles at 75°F, but dropped 57 percent to 43 miles when the temperature was held steady at 20°F. Warm temperatures were less stressful on battery range, but still delivered a lower average of 69 miles per full charge at 95°F.

AAA performed testing between December 2013 and January 2014. Each vehicle completed a driving cycle for moderate, hot and cold climates following standard EPA-DOE test procedures. The vehicles were fully charged and then “driven” on a dynamometer in a climate-controlled room until the battery was fully exhausted.

AAA has initiated several projects including mobile recharging units and EV charging stations to support members who drive electric vehicles. EVs provide owners with many benefits, but every motorist needs to be aware of conditions that can impact vehicle driving range. EV drivers need to plan carefully in hot and cold weather. Mapping tools such as the AAA TripTik® Travel Planner pinpoint charging stations to keep motorists on the go.

Additional information regarding AAA’s electric vehicle testing is available on the AAA NewsRoom.

As North America’s largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides more than 54 million members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services. Since its founding in 1902, the not-for-profit, fully tax-paying AAA has been a leader and advocate for the safety and security of all travelers. AAA clubs can be visited on the Internet at AAA.com.
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Old 02-08-2019, 03:20 PM   #1742
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Maybe I misread the report itself,

https://www.aaa.com/AAA/common/AAR/f...ing-Report.pdf

But the graphs seem to show only a 10% reduction of range (page 31) with all but the BMW I3.
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Old 02-08-2019, 03:42 PM   #1743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhoward1 View Post
Maybe I misread the report itself,

https://www.aaa.com/AAA/common/AAR/f...ing-Report.pdf

But the graphs seem to show only a 10% reduction of range (page 31) with all but the BMW I3.
We saw ~ 25% drop in range in this cold **** we got this week.


Not a huge deal, we just swapped cars for the week.


I really like her heated steering wheel
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:35 PM   #1744
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My round trip to Winter Park yesterday was 152 miles. I started at 90% SOC, nominally 278 miles, and finished at 18% SOC, right about 50.

So with the elevation change, extreme cold, hvac use, and increased rolling resistance from road conditions I used 228 nominal miles in 152 over the road miles.

That’s a solid 50% higher usage than in ideal conditions.
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Old 02-09-2019, 12:27 AM   #1745
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I only see massive progress from AAA’s findings between 2013 and 2019. Meanwhile my range is diminished the same 20% during winter months when ethanol blend is used. No progress with my ICE vehicles.
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Old 02-11-2019, 02:30 PM   #1746
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Cold?! The average high temp here in Jan is 22F. What about the -30F we saw last week? Or the -40F we see when we head up north on the sleds? It would be nice to have a car that doesn't have to warm up when it is below zero...but not that nice.
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Old 02-12-2019, 02:06 PM   #1747
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If this is true, this could be a huge change in the Pickup landscape

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/12...la-powertrain/
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Old 02-12-2019, 03:41 PM   #1748
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SubaDuba420 View Post
Really gas savings
Reminds me of the ads I used to see from this one car dealership when I lived in the midwest.....

""Brand new Jettas, only $12k!!!!!!!!11!!!!!"

(Sale price is after a $6k down payment)
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Old 02-12-2019, 04:16 PM   #1749
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I know a dealer that will give you a free raptor; you just have to buy a $60k hat.
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Old 02-12-2019, 06:06 PM   #1750
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I know a dealer that will give you a free raptor; you just have to buy a $60k hat.
In my state you'd owe tax on the hat and then the car...pass on that deal.
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