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Old 10-28-2022, 01:30 PM   #1151
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I know I shouldn't have even mentioned, that's like major gas on fire off-topic-izer around here. It's just funny how reliably that armageddon outlook has come up when talking car prices over the last like, 7 years on here.

My take is that if something does tip us we won't see it coming like this.
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Old 10-28-2022, 02:19 PM   #1152
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Based on what I've seen/read/listened to: yeah, recession inbound.

Predictions:
Used auto prices are going to TANK at the end of 2022/beginning of 2023
Fuel prices will initially drop in November, but then start moving up post mid-term elections
Loan interest rates are going to continue to creep up until mid-2023
House values will tank/drop significantly about mid-2023
O&G industry will again show record profits
Hell, most industries will show record profits
Another massive wealth transfer will occur in favor of the wealthy
in short: 2008 again, but much worse

Dude, you would have to have a full on global meltdown in so many markets to cause a recession worse than 2008 and at that point, itís a depression.

The fed is likely to intentionally cause a recession by crushing demand with high rates. 2008 financial crisis was caused by piss poor lending practices, egregious amount of ARM loans with intentions of simple flips, people without a job getting a home loan and that loan be sold off.

Home values could drop 40% and guess what? Their existing mortgage would still be less than trying to buy a different home at new rates. Homes are not likely to drop 40% either, 10-20% nationally? Sure. People are so fixated on the value of homes yet entirely ignoring the fact that their interest rates, by and large, are ridiculously low resulting in mortgage payments that are also incredibly low. Rent prices donít drop during recessions (go look at 08 apartment rents, didnít drop nationally).

Is a recession likely within the next 12 months? Absolutely and itís high. But the whole ďsky is fallingĒ is complete crap. Everyone seems to only remember 2008 and neglect every other recession thinking thatís the norm. A recession is actually healthy for the long term of the economy as they mostly (08 excluded) reduce excess.
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Old 11-01-2022, 06:58 PM   #1153
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Dude, you would have to have a full on global meltdown in so many markets to cause a recession worse than 2008 and at that point, itís a depression.

The fed is likely to intentionally cause a recession by crushing demand with high rates. 2008 financial crisis was caused by piss poor lending practices, egregious amount of ARM loans with intentions of simple flips, people without a job getting a home loan and that loan be sold off.

Home values could drop 40% and guess what? Their existing mortgage would still be less than trying to buy a different home at new rates. Homes are not likely to drop 40% either, 10-20% nationally? Sure. People are so fixated on the value of homes yet entirely ignoring the fact that their interest rates, by and large, are ridiculously low resulting in mortgage payments that are also incredibly low. Rent prices donít drop during recessions (go look at 08 apartment rents, didnít drop nationally).

Is a recession likely within the next 12 months? Absolutely and itís high. But the whole ďsky is fallingĒ is complete crap. Everyone seems to only remember 2008 and neglect every other recession thinking thatís the norm. A recession is actually healthy for the long term of the economy as they mostly (08 excluded) reduce excess.
I'm not suggesting that what he says will come to pass, but there are some pretty dire indicators that point to exactly what you're saying may happen.

look at China's real estate market
look at our own real estate market
look at inflation everywhere

things are a powder keg right now it seems just waiting for a match to hit in just the right place, the used car market is for sure something to look at, but reading articles over the past 6-9 months feels like the lead up to what 2008 had to offer.
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Old 11-01-2022, 07:38 PM   #1154
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I'm not suggesting that what he says will come to pass, but there are some pretty dire indicators that point to exactly what you're saying may happen.

look at China's real estate market
look at our own real estate market
look at inflation everywhere

things are a powder keg right now it seems just waiting for a match to hit in just the right place, the used car market is for sure something to look at, but reading articles over the past 6-9 months feels like the lead up to what 2008 had to offer.
Except 2008 housing market rise and 2020-2022 housing boom were fueled by 2 very different drivers. Market collapse of 08 was fueled by unqualified buyers getting loans, droves of people taking out ARM loans thinking they could keep flipping homes which they inevitably couldnít flip and had to go belly up on, heloc loans to purchase flip homes that were never sold causing numerous foreclosures on a single person, etc. Covid era housing rally was fueled by unprecedented low interest rates and never seen before people migration out of cities and to other states with cash in hand. The low rates made mortgages on homes pretty inexpensive, often less than what people were paying for rent even if having to pay over asking.

Housing is correcting, which is fine, natural and healthy but certainly not collapsing. With rents and rates where they are at, even if housing drops 20-30%, most home owners would still have a mortgage payment less than what it would be to get into a different house that cost less and or rent.

Now, global events could lead to major economic issues resulting in layoffs that dwarf 2008 but it would take a major event like large scale global conflict. Job openings report came out today and itís hotter than expected showing no sign of a hiring slow down.

Most recessions are fairly mild and there have really only been two periods in our history where housing really got hit. Depression and 08 recession. All other recessions housing either went flat or continued a very weak incline. I think 1990 saw less than 10% decline in values when economy turned.

Some areas could get hit much harder than others though (California, New York, etc).
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Old 11-01-2022, 07:55 PM   #1155
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How is this powder keg going to impact the GRC?
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Old 11-01-2022, 08:01 PM   #1156
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You can ditch a $1000 car payment and go buy a $1000 car, but you can't ditch a $2000 mortgage and go buy a cheap house...
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Old 11-01-2022, 09:25 PM   #1157
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Funny though, I'm still not sure I can justify $40k for the Corolla so.. I left my deposit with the Honda guy for now. Just in case they get a boost blue Civic sport touring hatch ... which can now be had with 6MT!! That gets me most of what I wanted out of the Type R funny enough, plus I can get a hitch on it.
I had a 2017 Civic hatch 6mT, and while I loved the car, I hated the open diff. Any time you turn left or right from a stop, it was spinning wheels, even in the dry, but terrible in snow or rain.

I had an Integra GSR sedan way back, and that issue was fixed by putting summer tires on it. But on the Civic, that didn't fix it, cause it has way more torque than the GSR.

I traded it with 90k miles for a 2020 Si, and that was so much better.

So I'd be careful buying the Sport Touring. I'd probably buy the Si again just for the LSD.
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Old 11-01-2022, 09:31 PM   #1158
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How is this powder keg going to impact the GRC?
The recession/depression that's coming next year is likely to eliminate 2/3rds of potential buyers. ADMs will disappear temporarily, but will be back when Washington and the Fed come back with round 2 of The Mother of All Money Printing Bonanzas.

So time your buy well. If you see a GRC at MSRP, don't get greedy thinking you can wait for below MSRP.
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Old 11-01-2022, 11:02 PM   #1159
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I had a 2017 Civic hatch 6mT, and while I loved the car, I hated the open diff. Any time you turn left or right from a stop, it was spinning wheels, even in the dry, but terrible in snow or rain.

I had an Integra GSR sedan way back, and that issue was fixed by putting summer tires on it. But on the Civic, that didn't fix it, cause it has way more torque than the GSR.

I traded it with 90k miles for a 2020 Si, and that was so much better.

So I'd be careful buying the Sport Touring. I'd probably buy the Si again just for the LSD.
I have seen a few people over at CivicX buy a transmission out of junked Si and swap it into the Sport Hatchback. It totally transforms the car. The 1.5T is way ahead of the towers and is torque'y. Even cold summer tires on an Si will cause engine mount tearing wheel hop. As you have likely seen Honda has addressed some of that with the new Si.
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Old 11-01-2022, 11:17 PM   #1160
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I have seen a few people over at CivicX buy a transmission out of junked Si and swap it into the Sport Hatchback. It totally transforms the car. The 1.5T is way ahead of the towers and is torque'y. Even cold summer tires on an Si will cause engine mount tearing wheel hop. As you have likely seen Honda has addressed some of that with the new Si.
Yeah, I'd totally buy a Sport hatch if it had an LSD, you would think you could buy the factory LSD and install it but I heard it's not that simple.

A bit of throttle management and the Si is fine, but the open diff hatch just sucked at getting power down.

one thing I like about the Type R is the lack of moonroof - at 6'2" i had to lower the seat to the floor on the Si. My sport hatch with no moonroof had tons of headroom, and the higher seating position was more comfortable.
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Old 11-01-2022, 11:38 PM   #1161
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I've got a torsen coming for my car, will be a PITA to install but should be a ton of fun to drive
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Old 11-03-2022, 10:56 AM   #1162
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So I'd be careful buying the Sport Touring. I'd probably buy the Si again just for the LSD.
Yep. Or, as I've said in the Integra thread, just get an Integra. I think the styling, LSD, stereo upgrade, and interior amenities are worth the $7k over the Civic Sport Touring HB.

I would not buy an Si because I don't like sedans where a roughly equivalent hatchback is available.
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Old 11-03-2022, 11:43 AM   #1163
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Yep. Or, as I've said in the Integra thread, just get an Integra. I think the styling, LSD, stereo upgrade, and interior amenities are worth the $7k over the Civic Sport Touring HB.

I would not buy an Si because I don't like sedans where a roughly equivalent hatchback is available.
Yeah, the base Integra I don't like the styling and it's too expensive. The Type S will be interesting though.
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Old 11-04-2022, 01:27 AM   #1164
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So when does the GRC actually get in owners hands?
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Old 11-04-2022, 11:24 AM   #1165
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First allocations came out today. All the vehicles appeared to be loaded cores. All are for Virginia, and Maryland.
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Old 11-04-2022, 11:39 AM   #1166
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And so much for the resident Subaru idiot claiming 5.5 incessantly. C&D just ripped a 4.9 and that's on a heavily abused presser.

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews...y-the-numbers/
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Old 11-04-2022, 12:32 PM   #1167
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And so much for the resident Subaru idiot claiming 5.5 incessantly. C&D just ripped a 4.9 and that's on a heavily abused presser.

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews...y-the-numbers/
That's good to hear, Circuit is the one I'd get too, now if they were only available... I'll likely have to wait for a 2nd or 3rd year model if I can get my hands on one even then, unless the economy totally tanks and interest rates blow through the roof as I'd buy one cash anyways.
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Old 11-04-2022, 02:00 PM   #1168
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That's good to hear, Circuit is the one I'd get too, now if they were only available... I'll likely have to wait for a 2nd or 3rd year model if I can get my hands on one even then, unless the economy totally tanks and interest rates blow through the roof as I'd buy one cash anyways.
There will be a special edition every year of production. Far too many idiots who are foaming at the mouth and acting like the car will be produced for one model year Mfrís donít spend this much on advertising for a single model year offering. Itís hilarious. Hype will wear off, CTR will steal some mojo, perhaps something else, the more produced the easier it gets. This thing will be produced in greater numbers and for more model years than the Focus RS and that took a a whopping 18 months for me to get a deal on. Iím guaranteed a GRC next year but IDGAF if itís 2024 honestly. This hurry to be first madness is just that, utter and complete madness.
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Old 11-04-2022, 02:13 PM   #1169
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What kind of transmission are they throwing into the auto? Doesn't seem like theyll be squeezing too much more power out of it without new bolt-ons in the aftermarket. But I am heavily interested in what that little engine can handle
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Old 11-04-2022, 02:17 PM   #1170
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What kind of transmission are they throwing into the auto? Doesn't seem like theyll be squeezing too much more power out of it without new bolt-ons in the aftermarket. But I am heavily interested in what that little engine can handle
I covered this a long time ago in this thread a couple of times.
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Old 11-04-2022, 03:48 PM   #1171
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What kind of transmission are they throwing into the auto? Doesn't seem like theyll be squeezing too much more power out of it without new bolt-ons in the aftermarket. But I am heavily interested in what that little engine can handle
500 whp before the head lifts. But they've already converted the G16 into a closed deck and running 900 hp out of it. So it's all about how much $ you want to spend. I'll be doing or spending enough to get 375-400 whp. The great thing is the G16 is in the GR Yaris so we already know what is necessary and nothing is that big of a deal. Just waiting on something cheaper than Syvecs which is coming and coming soon. And then there is Cobb.

This will be fun but it's gonna be a while for the NA market performance solutions. From now probably 12 months for offerings, 18 for more offerings and 24 months to have a selection and everything dialed. Same deal as any new platform that comes to the states.

Last edited by Pre; 11-04-2022 at 06:33 PM.
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Old 11-04-2022, 03:53 PM   #1172
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What kind of transmission are they throwing into the auto? Doesn't seem like theyll be squeezing too much more power out of it without new bolt-ons in the aftermarket. But I am heavily interested in what that little engine can handle
IDGAF about an auto, but to the power comment:

Look up GR Yaris content from across the pond; suffice it to say, it's a stout little engine.

Motive garage has gone absolutely bananas on theirs - head gasket gave up at 37psi/500whp, but the head, block & internals were fine, being conservative by nature, I'd probably stop around 36PSI
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Old 11-04-2022, 09:01 PM   #1173
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In Q2 and Q3, 35% of homes under construction have had buyers cancel. And itís getting worse not better.

Expect the same coming to cars with big ADMs like the GRC and Type R.

If weíre in a deep recession by next summer - and you can afford it, grab those cars at MSRP before we get another 2020 style money printing bonanza.
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Old 11-04-2022, 09:19 PM   #1174
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IDGAF about an auto, but to the power comment:

Look up GR Yaris content from across the pond; suffice it to say, it's a stout little engine.

Motive garage has gone absolutely bananas on theirs - head gasket gave up at 37psi/500whp, but the head, block & internals were fine, being conservative by nature, I'd probably stop around 36PSI
Just watched some vids and damn it I wish that was over here. Just would like to get behind the wheel of one. Definitely curious to see longevity figures at consecutive 7lb intervals, especially with a top end figure of 37. This GR Corolla might be it. I also heard the new Corolla in general is supposed to get an AWD option?
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Old 11-04-2022, 09:23 PM   #1175
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In Q2 and Q3, 35% of homes under construction have had buyers cancel. And itís getting worse not better.

Expect the same coming to cars with big ADMs like the GRC and Type R.

If weíre in a deep recession by next summer - and you can afford it, grab those cars at MSRP before we get another 2020 style money printing bonanza.
Oh yeah, can confirm. I have a buddy looking to or was looking to build a home on a 7 acre, and everywhere in our area, 3 different outfits quoted like 1.4 to build, all plumbing and electricity up. Though when he consulted how much it would be worth in 2 years, the overall value would take a 500k hit. So they withheld.
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