Fords E-Future

[samagon]

Originally Posted by dwf137

Power delivery is better than any ICE vehicle.

Per mile cost is cheaper.

Maintenance is significantly less.

Point of use emissions are zero.

But beyond that, yeah, they're all just cars. Different strokes. Personal values/morals dictate whether someone wants to consider one or not.

Camry Hybrid base price is $28k
Tesla M3 base price is $48k

the EPA says the annual fuel costs for the Camry Hybrid are $900, and the Tesla M3 is $550. so you save $350 per year driving the TM3.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find...46206&id=45726

I'd have to drive that TM3 for 57 years, if my math's correct, in order to overcome the initial $20,000 price gap. figure in regular car maintenance that doesn't exist on the TM3 and we're down to what, 50 years?

of the reasons to get a BEV, I'll let you guess which dog don't hunt.

let's take it farther and presume a car that costs a similar amount out the door to the TM3, rather than being cost conscious (I'd question why you're worried about annual costs if the cost to buy isn't a concern), anyway, a 330i is about $5000 cheaper than the TM3 and about $1500 more expensive per year to operate, so that brings it to a more reasonable 3 year time frame to get ROI on the cheaper yearly costs.

but yeah, if you're looking at it as a miserly type thing, you have to look at the entire range of factors, and I submit that if someone cares about $500 vs $2000 per year fuel costs, they are going to also care about OTD price and that Camry Hybrid is going to be the game.

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[dwf137]

Originally Posted by samagon

Camry Hybrid base price is $28k
Tesla M3 base price is $48k

I didn't include upfront costs because there's too much variability.

And way to cherry pick one of the best mpg cars out there and also compare a base model camry to a Tesla which is more targeted at the luxury market... Sure, one could argue that buying a Camry is a better choice than a Tesla, but the Tesla is designed and marketed to compete with the likes of the BMW 3 or even 5 series... You could also argue that someone shouldn't buy a bently but instead a honda accord, they both are sedans. Also remember that most EV's are coming fully loaded to maximize profit to pay off the R&D costs, so you really need to be looking at loaded ICE. Since this is a subaru forum, let's compare the Solterra to the Forester:

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find...46030&id=45838

There's about an 8K difference between equivalent models, before factoring in the tax credits, which will nearly cancel that difference out. After that, per mile fuel savings is money in the bank.

[samagon]

Your know how I know you haven't looked at a Camry in ever?

Head on over to Toyota's website and spec out the highest trim Camry hybrid, it's 15,000 cheaper than the cheapest tm3, and looks just as well appointed. As I have sat in the tm3 seats, I bet the Camry is far more comfortable as well.

That's still on the order of decades to pay down the difference.

Not good enough for you still? Head over to Lexus and check out the es hybrid, it's 43000, and only 500 more per year to operate, so at 5000 less for the base price, that's gonna take 10 years to offset that initial cost.

At the original price the tm3 is pretty competitive, but from a frugal owners perspective, it isn't in the cards. Even from someone who wants a really nice experience, but also is frugal, it's not the best choice. And we're not even getting into the sheer inconvenience of a Bev vs ice based system. You've got to really want it.

Sorry.

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by samagon

Camry Hybrid base price is $28k
Tesla M3 base price is $48k

the EPA says the annual fuel costs for the Camry Hybrid are $900, and the Tesla M3 is $550. so you save $350 per year driving the TM3.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find...46206&id=45726

I'd have to drive that TM3 for 57 years, if my math's correct, in order to overcome the initial $20,000 price gap. figure in regular car maintenance that doesn't exist on the TM3 and we're down to what, 50 years?

of the reasons to get a BEV, I'll let you guess which dog don't hunt.

let's take it farther and presume a car that costs a similar amount out the door to the TM3, rather than being cost conscious (I'd question why you're worried about annual costs if the cost to buy isn't a concern), anyway, a 330i is about $5000 cheaper than the TM3 and about $1500 more expensive per year to operate, so that brings it to a more reasonable 3 year time frame to get ROI on the cheaper yearly costs.

but yeah, if you're looking at it as a miserly type thing, you have to look at the entire range of factors, and I submit that if someone cares about $500 vs $2000 per year fuel costs, they are going to also care about OTD price and that Camry Hybrid is going to be the game.

Current price of the Model 3 $39,490 with the new $7500 incentive. That EPA annual fuel cost for the Model 3 is insane if you are charging at home. If you keep the car for 200k miles you will save $23-20k in fuel alone.

[dwf137]

Originally Posted by samagon

You've got to really want it.

No doubt. I'm not disputing that point. Low per mile cost is a benefit of EV. High upfront cost is a negative. These are two separate points. I was pointing out the pros. Of course pros and cons need to be weighed in a decision. Upfront cost can be mitigated with appropriate car selection and comparison like not buying a Tesla or comparing it to it's real competitors. I bought a leaf because otd costs were about 30k before factoring in my overpriced trade in - shall we compare that to the Camry? I could have bought a Tesla or something more expensive, but I didn't because I didn't want that high upfront cost for a car I knew was going to be limited to boring commuter status regardless of what I chose.

Just because the masses are going up market to buy an EV doesn't mean everyone has to...

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by juanmedina

Current price of the Model 3 $39,490 with the new $7500 incentive. That EPA annual fuel cost for the Model 3 is insane if you are charging at home. If you keep the car for 200k miles you will save $23-20k in fuel alone.

Um, that’s assuming everything stays the same with charging costs. And let’s be honest, I bet less than 10% of EV buyers will keep their car to 100k miles let alone 100k miles.

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

Um, that's assuming everything stays the same with charging costs. And let's be honest, I bet less than 10% of EV buyers will keep their car to 100k miles let alone 100k miles.

Yeah and obviously gas prices would vary as well. I mentioned 200k miles becuase samagon said that he is frugal and if he has a Mr. money mustache kind of mentality he would drive a car until the wheels falls off. Uber drivers have already achieve 200k+ on Model 3's and the savings are real and Tesla's make more sense for an Uber driver than a Toyota Prius.

Anyway here is my buddies Model 3P and YP and my Plaid for reference about potential savings:

Model 3:



Model Y:



Plaid:

[samagon]

Originally Posted by dwf137

I bought a leaf because otd costs were about 30k before factoring in my overpriced trade in - shall we compare that to the Camry?

I picked the Camry vs the tm3 because it's very comparable, interior space, utility. I don't think comparing the leaf to the Camry is valuable at all, maybe leaf vs Corolla hatch, or similar? Sure, but I guess the point I was making is what we both agree to, you have to want it.

[dwf137]

Originally Posted by samagon

I picked the Camry vs the tm3 because it's very comparable, interior space, utility. I don't think comparing the leaf to the Camry is valuable at all, maybe leaf vs Corolla hatch, or similar? Sure, but I guess the point I was making is what we both agree to, you have to want it.

The car I replaced was an outback.

The solterra vs Forester data is listed above. With tax credits the up front cost is negligible.

I understand the Camry is nice and all, but there's a reason people still buy Mercedes and bmw's instead of Camrys. I do not agree that a Tesla is direct Camry competition, just like a leaf isn't direct Camry competition.

[samagon]

Originally Posted by dwf137

The car I replaced was an outback.

The solterra vs Forester data is listed above. With tax credits the up front cost is negligible.

I understand the Camry is nice and all, but there's a reason people still buy Mercedes and bmw's instead of Camrys. I do not agree that a Tesla is direct Camry competition, just like a leaf isn't direct Camry competition.

No doubt, when I'm at a car show there's something satisfying about getting in the Lexus, closing all the doors and not hearing anything outside at all.

But yeah, we all have our own unique needs from cars, that's why they make so many different ones.

[dwf137]

yeah... I mean, I feel things are a bit skewed because most manufacturers are really only offering the higher end EV's right now. The Leaf never was super popular in the US, despite currently having a sub 30K MSRP for the lower tier model, and now the newer EV's are all either sporty cars or fully loaded CUV's, demanding a pretty high price point. Companies like VW won't bring their more affordable EV's, like the ID.3 to the US market for some reason. It's like they want to keep EV's as some status symbol, but I don't think it's going to be that way forever. VW ID.3 is cheaper than a GTI, but provides a similar driving experience in both size and acceleration... When we start to get reasonable cars like that in the US market, there will be a big shift towards EV, imo. But right now, there's such a high cost to entry, you either settle for something like a Leaf, or you pony up big dollars for things like a tesla. I personally couldn't justify big dollars for a regional commuter car, so here I am in a Leaf plus... I wanted it, so I made the concession and made it happen. Don't regret it. I charge for free at work 90% of the time, and the thing is pretty much already paid off. I do also have a highlander to deal with situations where I need more cargo room, and a motorcycle when I want to have some fun weaving through traffic.

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by dwf137

yeah... I mean, I feel things are a bit skewed because most manufacturers are really only offering the higher end EV's right now. The Leaf never was super popular in the US, despite currently having a sub 30K MSRP for the lower tier model, and now the newer EV's are all either sporty cars or fully loaded CUV's, demanding a pretty high price point. Companies like VW won't bring their more affordable EV's, like the ID.3 to the US market for some reason. It's like they want to keep EV's as some status symbol, but I don't think it's going to be that way forever. VW ID.3 is cheaper than a GTI, but provides a similar driving experience in both size and acceleration... When we start to get reasonable cars like that in the US market, there will be a big shift towards EV, imo. But right now, there's such a high cost to entry, you either settle for something like a Leaf, or you pony up big dollars for things like a tesla. I personally couldn't justify big dollars for a regional commuter car, so here I am in a Leaf plus... I wanted it, so I made the concession and made it happen. Don't regret it. I charge for free at work 90% of the time, and the thing is pretty much already paid off. I do also have a highlander to deal with situations where I need more cargo room, and a motorcycle when I want to have some fun weaving through traffic.

Simple answer and I think several autos have more or less said it. But the more upper mid and upper tier EV’s carry higher margins and right now they’re not having much difficulty selling them. That additional margin goes back into scaling production and future EV development.

Europe has an amazing mass transit and driving cars in town can be a bitch so there’s less importance placed on fancy higher trim vehicles (disposable income also is usually less than in United States.)

It’s going to take some time for more economical but decent optioned vehicles come out, not to mention cost of metal, batteries, chips, etc is still pretty elevated and supply still constrained.

Used EV’s though are taking a pretty good beating. You can find loaded EV6 wind with low miles for $45k-$47k, same with Mach E Premium.

[dwf137]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

Simple answer and I think several autos have more or less said it. But the more upper mid and upper tier EV's carry higher margins and right now they're not having much difficulty selling them. That additional margin goes back into scaling production and future EV development.

oh yeah, for sure. I get the higher margins and paying off R&D and infrastructure investments. But when I see local dealers sitting on double digit quantities of those expensive EV's, used car prices tanking, and interest rates continuing to hurt discretionary spending, how long are they going to be able to move cars like that?

When do they need to shift to higher volume, lower profit cars? When will Ford come out with a Mavrick EV, instead of a F150 EV? Smaller battery pack, less material, lower price, higher volume. Maybe it's more a question of when will they have supply to switch to that sort of model?

With how infrastructure is in the US right now, I don't think a lot of Americans can justify the current EV price tag. It's gotta come down if they want to keep selling them. And either that's going to happen, or in states like CA, car dealers aren't going to have anything to sell in a little over 10 years...

[godfather2112]

Originally Posted by dwf137

oh yeah, for sure. I get the higher margins and paying off R&D and infrastructure investments. But when I see local dealers sitting on double digit quantities of those expensive EV's, used car prices tanking, and interest rates continuing to hurt discretionary spending, how long are they going to be able to move cars like that?

When do they need to shift to higher volume, lower profit cars? When will Ford come out with a Mavrick EV, instead of a F150 EV? Smaller battery pack, less material, lower price, higher volume. Maybe it's more a question of when will they have supply to switch to that sort of model?

With how infrastructure is in the US right now, I don't think a lot of Americans can justify the current EV price tag. It's gotta come down if they want to keep selling them. And either that's going to happen, or in states like CA, car dealers aren't going to have anything to sell in a little over 10 years...

Agree with your points. Eventually dealers / OEM will offer discounts / incentives to move vehicles if it becomes a national issue. My issue with current EV’s is that they’re putting out vehicles that for the most part, are unnecessarily quick but have the features I want. Example: F150 Lightning Lariat 0-60 in 3.8 seconds. My current 2019 Lariat 0-60 is 5.7 (I believe). I do not need my truck to get performance car 0-60 times. Give me the same 0-60 that I currently have (and maybe that actually increases range due to less power draw??) but with same features I have in my truck.

The ICE Lariat I built is pretty much $70k. Lariat lightning $89k. Nearly $20k difference from ICE and EV. Maybe I’m wrong but I would assume if the EV lightning Lariat had a less powerful motor (maybe that can decrease battery size as well) to where 0-60 time were near similar it would drive down cost for manufacturer and customer.

Maybe in time they will. They still over 2.7lt ecoboost and 3.5lt so maybe we can see less powerful motor options that drive down costs not just on the f150 but other vehicles.

I think everyone is so caught up in needing to have same 0-60 and performance numbers be equal or close to Tesla that it isolated most buyers who just want a good vehicle and adequate enough in acceleration.

[SCRAPPYDO]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

Agree with your points. Eventually dealers / OEM will offer discounts / incentives to move vehicles if it becomes a national issue. My issue with current EV’s is that they’re putting out vehicles that for the most part, are unnecessarily quick but have the features I want. Example: F150 Lightning Lariat 0-60 in 3.8 seconds. My current 2019 Lariat 0-60 is 5.7 (I believe). I do not need my truck to get performance car 0-60 times. Give me the same 0-60 that I currently have (and maybe that actually increases range due to less power draw??) but with same features I have in my truck.

The ICE Lariat I built is pretty much $70k. Lariat lightning $89k. Nearly $20k difference from ICE and EV. Maybe I’m wrong but I would assume if the EV lightning Lariat had a less powerful motor (maybe that can decrease battery size as well) to where 0-60 time were near similar it would drive down cost for manufacturer and customer.

Maybe in time they will. They still over 2.7lt ecoboost and 3.5lt so maybe we can see less powerful motor options that drive down costs not just on the f150 but other vehicles.

I think everyone is so caught up in needing to have same 0-60 and performance numbers be equal or close to Tesla that it isolated most buyers who just want a good vehicle and adequate enough in acceleration.

Because Acceleration is the single only metric an EV actually shines. It is why they love to show you model X vs Ferrari drag race on youtube for the 3000th time. Take away that and it costs more and has bad range and long charge times and is not faster. They need something to sell these things.

Interesting conversations and discussions. I would submit, Tesla 3 is the farthest thing on earth from a luxury car in every single aspect other than Branding. A Camry is much better appointed and probably more comfortable. My wife's ES350 Luxury Edition was 49k, and it is insanely comfortable and luxurious inside compared to the my first push car Fischer Price interior of a 3.

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO

Because Acceleration is the single only metric an EV actually shines. It is why they love to show you model X vs Ferrari drag race on youtube for the 3000th time. Take away that and it costs more and has bad range and long charge times and is not faster. They need something to sell these things.

Interesting conversations and discussions. I would submit, Tesla 3 is the farthest thing on earth from a luxury car in every single aspect other than Branding. A Camry is much better appointed and probably more comfortable. My wife's ES350 Luxury Edition was 49k, and it is insanely comfortable and luxurious inside compared to the my first push car Fischer Price interior of a 3.

how about a metric as important as safety? how about cost of ownership?

[SCRAPPYDO]

LOLOL.. are you seriously saying my 5 star in all tests Lexus is not safe! LOLOL. It has more safety crap I wish it did not have. The ES350 is probably the worlds most dependable luxury car. I mean it is a posh camry in reality.

Cost of ownership. LOLOL.. again. People who buy a 50k+ dollar car and replace it after 4 years do not give a crap about a grand here or there. I bet the lexus holds its value a HELL of a lot better than the dashless 3, so maybe the Lexus wins. For me that tiny delta if there is one is well worth the price. I would rather spend 4 years in luxury than in a penalty box.

The model 3 is an embarrassment. Inside and out. It is devoid of a single redeeming design feature. The S at least has a dash and some effort placed into the ergonomics.

You have to be scraping the bottom of the barrel to say cost of ownership and safety. Like it was mentioned before. All cars have pros and cons. The weight of each item in those columns is particular to each person. Maybe looking back at your car and saying, man that is some nice cost of ownership really floats your boat. If so, power to you.

[SCRAPPYDO]

LOLOL.. are you seriously saying my 5 star in all tests Lexus is not safe! LOLOL. It has more safety crap I wish it did not have. The ES350 is probably the worlds most dependable luxury car. I mean it is a posh camry in reality.

Cost of ownership. LOLOL.. again. People who buy a 50k+ dollar car and replace it after 4 years do not give a crap about a grand here or there. I bet the lexus holds its value a HELL of a lot better than the dashless 3, so maybe the Lexus wins. For me that tiny delta if there is one is well worth the price. I would rather spend 4 years in luxury than in a penalty box.

The model 3 is an embarrassment. Inside and out. It is devoid of a single redeeming design feature. The S at least has a dash and some effort placed into the ergonomics.

You have to be scraping the bottom of the barrel to say cost of ownership and safety. Like it was mentioned before. All cars have pros and cons. The weight of each item in those columns is particular to each person. Maybe looking back at your car and saying, man that is some nice cost of ownership really floats your boat. If so, power to you.

[Sid03SVT]

Originally Posted by godfather2112

Agree with your points. Eventually dealers / OEM will offer discounts / incentives to move vehicles if it becomes a national issue. My issue with current EV's is that they're putting out vehicles that for the most part, are unnecessarily quick but have the features I want. Example: F150 Lightning Lariat 0-60 in 3.8 seconds. My current 2019 Lariat 0-60 is 5.7 (I believe). I do not need my truck to get performance car 0-60 times. Give me the same 0-60 that I currently have (and maybe that actually increases range due to less power draw??) but with same features I have in my truck.

The ICE Lariat I built is pretty much $70k. Lariat lightning $89k. Nearly $20k difference from ICE and EV. Maybe I'm wrong but I would assume if the EV lightning Lariat had a less powerful motor (maybe that can decrease battery size as well) to where 0-60 time were near similar it would drive down cost for manufacturer and customer.

Maybe in time they will. They still over 2.7lt ecoboost and 3.5lt so maybe we can see less powerful motor options that drive down costs not just on the f150 but other vehicles.

I think everyone is so caught up in needing to have same 0-60 and performance numbers be equal or close to Tesla that it isolated most buyers who just want a good vehicle and adequate enough in acceleration.

BZ4X & Solterra are more in line, performance-wise, with ICE/hybrids, but starting MSRP is considerably higher than the equivalent ICE Rav4 (closest comparison), when spec'd out however, MSRP is similar to the Rav4 Prime IIRC, meaning the only reason to get the Rav4 Prime over the BZ4X is if you want the range extender ICE engine, otherwise just get the BZ4X.

Short range Leaf starts at ~28k vs. other compact ICE vehicles that start at ~20k. Leaf has been around for a relatively long time, but pricing is still considerably higher than the ICE equivalent; until we see Nissans books we won't know how much of that is profit hidden in the MSRP, as ICE compacts tend to have razor thin profit margins.

Based on the range numbers for the Model 3 LR (358) vs. Model 3 Perf (315), and EV6 GT-line (252) vs EV6 GT (206), yes, smaller motors should increase range.

Although in the case of the Leaf, the loss from going to the larger motor is not that dramatic.
40kWh battery 110kW motor @3,483lbs = 123c/99h/111mpg-e combined
60kWh battery 165kW motor @3,871lbs = 121c/98h/109mpg-e combined
Unclear how much of that efficiency loss is due to increased curb weight and how much is due to increased motor size. The larger diameter wheels will affect efficiency too. Need someone with a 40kWh leaf to log miles empty and then log miles with ~400lbs of plate distributed inside the passenger space.

[dwf137]

fwiw, I believe the leaf and leaf plus both use the same motor, but in the plus it's running at a different voltage hence more power output. Added weight is just in the batteries.

[juanmedina]

Originally Posted by SCRAPPYDO

LOLOL.. are you seriously saying my 5 star in all tests Lexus is not safe! LOLOL. It has more safety crap I wish it did not have. The ES350 is probably the worlds most dependable luxury car. I mean it is a posh camry in reality.

Cost of ownership. LOLOL.. again. People who buy a 50k+ dollar car and replace it after 4 years do not give a crap about a grand here or there. I bet the lexus holds its value a HELL of a lot better than the dashless 3, so maybe the Lexus wins. For me that tiny delta if there is one is well worth the price. I would rather spend 4 years in luxury than in a penalty box.

The model 3 is an embarrassment. Inside and out. It is devoid of a single redeeming design feature. The S at least has a dash and some effort placed into the ergonomics.

You have to be scraping the bottom of the barrel to say cost of ownership and safety. Like it was mentioned before. All cars have pros and cons. The weight of each item in those columns is particular to each person. Maybe looking back at your car and saying, man that is some nice cost of ownership really floats your boat. If so, power to you.

LOLOL = "Because Acceleration is the single only metric an EV actually shines. "

We understand that you are bias and that is ok and I have an issue with the statement above. No one in the world can't deny that EV's have better crash ratings than ICE cars because of the larger crumble zone. 5 starts /= 5 starts.

I agree all car have pros and cons and so far ICE only have winning on refuel time and weight. Even cost is on par to cars on their same segment with sometimes offering way better performance. Cargo space is better, traction is better, NVH, and reliability are also better.

Dude I have a Lexus IS-F before and it was an awesome car and track it and never had big mechanical issues. I had small issues like the water pump leaking after 15k miles and after replacing it again at 44k miles. Later my dash and door panels started disintegrating themselves and I tried to get it covered under warranty but for some reason the IS-F was not covered under the recall. Each door card costed $1k to replace; I end up getting used newer door cards from the IS250 or something and colored the stitching blue to match the color of seats and other stitching . On the dash board I had to coated with vinyl interior coat to make look ok.

I can tell you that I have spend zero dollars on my Tesla's and the small things that I had to call service for have been replace at zero cost conveniently at my house.

EV's will come down on price and charging time will improve it just a matter of time. A Chevy Bolt after the incentive is now $23k and Model 3 SR is $39k. What is the average car selling price now days?

[KC]

Originally Posted by juanmedina

and the savings are real and Tesla's make more sense for an Uber driver than a Toyota Prius.

Anyway here is my buddies Model 3P and YP and my Plaid for reference about potential savings:

Model 3:



Model Y:



Plaid:

Missing from the above, "miles driven".

Prius MSRP: (Cheapest) $24,695

Model 3 MSRP: (cheapest, RWD base) $46,990

Difference ~$22,300

The other two, cost differential goes way up.

5 year loan, $4,460/year to the Prius.

The prius is about $900/15k miles for gas. The prius would have to do 75k miles per year to blow through that $4,460/year savings.

Yes, you're saving in fuel. But you're spending more for the car which negates the fuel savings.

[dwf137]

If everyone bought cars purely off of cost metrics, we'd all be driving around in a toyota yaris. These are stupid comparisons.

[KC]

Originally Posted by dwf137

If everyone bought cars purely off of cost metrics, we'd all be driving around in a toyota yaris. These are stupid comparisons.

Maybe you're arguing something different or missed the point...

I'm refuting the claim of "and the savings are real and Tesla's make more sense for an Uber driver than a Toyota Prius." That's a SPECIFIC use case I'm discussing there. Not a "feels" or "wants" for a DD.

The Prius owner will be in the black ~$22k+ sooner than the person that bought a Model 3 to do Ubering.

[dwf137]

Originally Posted by KC

Maybe you're arguing something different or missed the point...

I'm refuting the claim of "and the savings are real and Tesla's make more sense for an Uber driver than a Toyota Prius." That's a SPECIFIC use case I'm discussing there. Not a "feels" or "wants" for a DD.

The Prius owner will be in the black ~$22k+ sooner than the person that bought a Model 3 to do Ubering.

got it, i didn't see his comment specific to uber drivers. I don't know why anyone would get a tesla for ubering...