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Old 01-12-2021, 09:57 AM   #1
mhoward1
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Default Battery pack prices reported below US$100/kWh for first time

I am surprised this hasn't made bigger news

Battery pack prices reported below US$100/kWh for first time

https://www.energy-storage.news/news...Wh%20by%202023.


Quote:
The cost of Lithium-ion battery pack prices has fallen close to 90%, and rates lower than US$100/kWh have been reported for the first time.

That’s according to new research from BloombergNEF, which claims average prices will be close to US$100/kWh by 2023.

BloombergNEF’s Battery Price Survey predicts that pack prices for stationary storage and electric vehicles (EVs) will fall to $101/kWh within three years. Average pack prices have sat at around $137/kWh this year, 89% lower than in 2010 and nearly a fifth of their cost seven years ago.

This, the report said, has come as a result of rising order sizes and BEV sales growth, which has led battery manufacturers to benefit from economies of scale. The cost of cathode materials has also fallen substantially since the start of 2018, providing developers with more favourable profit margins.

BloombergNEF’s prediction is broadly in line with other estimates. Guidehouse Insights claims that battery pack costs could fall to $66.6/kWh by the end of the decade.

The current price in the Bloomberg report represents a 74:26 split between the average cell and pack, according to James Frith, BloombergNEF’s head of energy storage research and a lead author of the report. The pack price itself could further dimmish “as more BEV specific platforms are introduced,” Frith added.

The research group reported lower than US$100/kWh on pack prices for e-buses in China, but Frith said that we will see the average price across the battery storage industry “pass this point” in a few years.

Frith added that, if the cost of raw materials rebounded and returned to their 2018 highs, this would “would only delay” the decline of pack prices.

“The industry is becoming increasingly resilient to changing raw material prices,” he said, “with leading battery manufacturers moving up on the value chain and investing in cathode production or even mines.”

The report expects average prices to fall as far as US$58/kWh within the next 10 years, although admits there is “much less certainty” on how this could be attained. It argued that structured supply chains for new materials not currently used in lithium-ion batteries but that could bring down the cost of production, such as solid electrolytes, “need to be established”.
translated this means a $25K 300 mile range compact is now possible.
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Old 01-12-2021, 11:04 AM   #2
subyski
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhoward1 View Post
I am surprised this hasn't made bigger news

Battery pack prices reported below US$100/kWh for first time

https://www.energy-storage.news/news...Wh%20by%202023.




translated this means a $25K 300 mile range compact is now possible.
It needs to translate to an actual vehicle at that price without subsidies. Manufacturers are spending a lot of money on R&D and needs to be recouped somewhere. They are still spending money developing their main ICE vehicles. It's not just the battery tech but the whole car infrastructure (i.e. chassis) and the other safety features that keep the costs high, for now. Can we see a true $25k BEV model or will be a $25k vehicle adjusted for inflation in today's dollars?
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Old 01-12-2021, 01:49 PM   #3
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$25K without subsidies is the sweet spot for market saturation and will be the ideal way to recuperate r&d costs. I bet battery technology will continue to progress, i.e. more capacity, eco-friendly/easier to recycle materials, quicker charging time, cheaper to re-charge, battery life, longer range/less drain, increase in MTBF, better operating tolerances (temp duty cycles), etc.
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Old 01-12-2021, 02:50 PM   #4
Calamity Jesus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by subyski View Post
It needs to translate to an actual vehicle at that price without subsidies. Manufacturers are spending a lot of money on R&D and needs to be recouped somewhere.
Did you see that the Model Y has a 29.4% gross profit margin? Tesla is raking in cash despite the lack of subsidies, and they still have loads of room to drop the price if they want. The market is driving the prices right now, not the battery cost.
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Old 01-14-2021, 01:20 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhoward1 View Post
translated this means a $25K 300 mile range compact is now possible.

It also means that new grid connected battery storage facilities will be more economic in many areas with lots of renewable generation than coal or natural gas fired plants.

I've spent the last 25 years in the electricity industry, which a lot of folks don't think about that much (it's pretty dry and I don't blame them!). It cannot be overstated how disruptive the combination of solar and wind generation with affordable storage is to the industry. It is not only more economic and environmentally friendly, it also opens the door to a more distributed grid relying less heavily on high voltage transmission lines and massive central generating facilities.
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