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Old 01-26-2012, 09:35 PM   #1
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Default Hybrid Cars Won’t Save Much Oil

Hybrid cars may be as popular as ever, but they may not have much effect on the nation’s – or the world’s – oil consumption over the next two decades, according to J. Marshall Adkins and Pavel Molchanov, analysts for the financial services firm Raymond James.
Roughly 290,000 hybrids were sold last year in the United States, about the same as in 2008 and down from a high of 347,000 in 2007. Last year, hybrid cars — which have both conventional and a battery operated-engines — had a market share of roughly 3 percent.
In a report, the analysts point out that even under high-growth assumptions, where hybrids account for a third of all new car sales in 2020, the savings would be just 200,000 barrels of oil a day, or just 1 percent of the nation’s current oil demand.
The analysis makes a number of assumptions that may or may not turn out to be correct. For example, it uses an average fuel efficiency of 27 miles per gallon for regular vehicles versus 40 miles per gallon, on average, for hybrids.
“No matter how ‘cool’ and popular the concept might be, from the oil market’s standpoint, hybrids will be irrelevant as far as the eye can see,” the report asserted.

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