Welcome to the North American Subaru Impreza Owners Club Wednesday November 25, 2020
Home Forums Images WikiNASIOC Products Store Modifications Upgrade Garage
NASIOC
Go Back   NASIOC > NASIOC General > News & Rumors > Non-Subaru News & Rumors

Welcome to NASIOC - The world's largest online community for Subaru enthusiasts!
Welcome to the NASIOC.com Subaru forum.

You are currently viewing our forum as a guest, which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our community, free of charge, you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is free, fast and simple, so please join our community today!

If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us.







* As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. 
* Registered users of the site do not see these ads. 
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-26-2020, 08:36 AM   #1
AVANTI R5
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 73805
Join Date: Nov 2004
Default Electric Car Sales Will Accelerate, But Gasoline Power Will Retain Big Global Share


symbol indicating a place to charge an electric car with energy in Catalonia Spain
Quote:
Electric Car Sales Will Accelerate, But Gasoline Power Will Retain Big Global Share


The surge of electric car sales is undeniable, but the noise generated by politicians and environmentalists cheering on the battery revolution hides a compelling fact; far from its imminent demise, internal combustion engines (ICE) are going to be around for a long time yet.

According to data provider IHS INFO Markit on Tuesday, by 2050 between 60 and 80% of global new car sales will be electric (this comprises battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel cells), but ICE-based cars will still account for 1.9 billion vehicles on the road because of their longevity.

“It will still be a long road before they (electric vehicles) dislodge gasoline as the predominant fuel in transportation. Oil is no longer the unchallenged king in automotive transportation. But for some time to come its writ will still extend quite widely across the realm of transportation,” IHS Markit vice-chairman Daniel Yergin said in his new book “The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations”.

And as some politicians call for a ban on the sale of new ICE cars by 2035, or even 2030, IHS data shows ICE cars will retain a large share of the market, and begs the question, what will politicians do about it.

IHS data predicts by 2030, global electric sales – battery electric (BEV), Fuel Cells (FC) and plug-in hybrids - will account for 24.6% of the market, but ICE sales will notch up 75.4%. This includes hybrids, mild-hybrids, which use much battery power to improve ICE efficiency, and pure ICE vehicles. In Europe, electric sales storm to 38.7% by 2030, but that still leaves 61.2% of vehicles mainly powered by gasoline. In the U.S. by 2030, gasoline powered cars still account for nearly 80% of the market.

In 2020, just over 2% of global sales were battery electric.

CO2 splurging ICE sales

Investment bank Morgan Stanley MS has updated its forecasts for global BEV sales and now expects by 2030 in Europe a market share of 40% after an earlier 30% prediction, but that still leaves a huge amount of CO2 splurging ICE sales. In the U.S., Morgan Stanley sees BEV sales of 25%, up from a previous estimate of 14%, while globally it raises its outlook to 31% from 26%.

LMC Automotive said in a report published Tuesday, in North America by the early part of the next decade about half of vehicles will be electrified, while China and Europe go at a faster pace, that still leaves a massive amount of ICE-based vehicles.

“Our current forecast does not place the industry on track to achieve global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. More decisive action to limit sales of ICE vehicles would be necessary, in our opinion,” LMC said.

Look out for Auto-Tech

In his book, Yergin points out demand for electric vehicles is driven by government regulation not consumer demand. More demand for electric vehicles also creates problems and tricky decisions and challenges.

“Electric vehicles also bring their own set of challenges, particularly in the supply chain of some battery materials. Electric vehicle demand for lithium could rise 1,800% by 2030 and would represent about 85% of total world demand. Demand for cobalt, another essential element in batteries, could rise 1,400%. And more than 50% of global cobalt supply comes from one place—the Democratic Republic of the Congo,” Yergin said.

“The possible emergence of a “New Triad” - the convergence of the electric car, ride-hailing and car-sharing services, and self-driving autonomous vehicles could disrupt oil’s century-long dominance in transportation. This would give rise instead to a new trillion-dollar industry, Auto-Tech,” Yergin said.
* Registered users of the site do not see these ads.
AVANTI R5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
* Registered users of the site do not see these ads.
Old 10-26-2020, 08:46 AM   #2
godfather2112
Papi Chulo
Moderator
 
Member#: 53794
Join Date: Jan 2004
Chapter/Region: RMIC
Location: Boner kill city
Vehicle:
... 2017 BMW M2
2017 F-150

Default

More groundbreaking news, water is wet!
godfather2112 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2020, 12:09 PM   #3
oichan
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 492327
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: A car lounge in the midwest
Vehicle:
19 WRX 16 STI
17Golf-R 16FiST 20Supra

Default

Yeah, in 20yrs they may still be scratching their heads why the emissions levels are still high.
oichan is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2020, 06:11 PM   #4
heavyD
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 194216
Join Date: Nov 2008
Chapter/Region: W. Canada
Location: Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Vehicle:
2020 X3M Competition

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by oichan View Post
Yeah, in 20yrs they may still be scratching their heads why the emissions levels are still high.
It's going to be interesting what politicians do when they realize the earth's issues are much deeper than ICE and what industry will be next to be scapegoated. The real issue that nobody wants to deal with is that there's simply too many humans populating the planet. Each person on this planet produces a carbon legacy that will outpace any gains made by ditching ICE for EV and year over year the earth's population keeps growing.
heavyD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2020, 10:56 AM   #5
Masterauto
Scooby Specialist
 
Member#: 198376
Join Date: Dec 2008
Chapter/Region: MAIC
Location: Delaware
Vehicle:
18 Plans 3 pedal S
ACURA MDX

Default

Most of world desires DIESEL power, CNG/LNG for economy. Unless you travel outside USA you would never realize this. Many will be forced into electrics but I hear nothing about improving the grid to accommodate them ?IMHO Hydrogen fuel cells with pull ahead and other battery electrics will be the cheaper choice.
Masterauto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2020, 07:25 AM   #6
AVANTI R5
Scooby Guru
 
Member#: 73805
Join Date: Nov 2004
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfather2112 View Post
More groundbreaking news, water is wet!

Really..not here it's a solid..
AVANTI R5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:29 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Powered by Searchlight © 2020 Axivo Inc.
Copyright ©1999 - 2019, North American Subaru Impreza Owners Club, Inc.

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.